22nd Amendment

Presidents Who Could Have Had Third Terms In Office

Ronald 3 Comments

Anyone who studies American history knows that our only President who had more than two terms (eight years) in office was Franklin D. Roosevelt, who actually was elected four times, and served a total of 12 years and 39 days before dying in office in 1945.

But there were others who could have had more than eight years in office, were it not because of their own decision not to seek another term, or due to constitutional limitations via the 22nd Amendment!

These potential cases of Presidents who could have had more than eight years in office include:

Andrew Jackson (1829-1837), who would have won a third term had he chosen to run, but instead his Vice President, Martin Van Buren, ran and won the Presidency.

Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909), who served seven and a half years after succeeding William McKinley six months into his second term, and then chose not to run in 1908, backing William Howard Taft who won, and then challenging Taft in 1912, on a third party line (Progressive Party), but lost to him. Despite the loss, TR won six states and 88 electoral votes, the best third party performance in American history.

Calvin Coolidge (1923-1929), who served five and a half years in the Presidency, after succeeding Warren G. Harding after two and a half years in office, and decided not to run in 1928, and instead, we saw Herbert Hoover win the Presidency.

These three Presidents mentioned above were popular enough to have won another term, and in each case, would have ended up serving more than eight years in office, as FDR did!

And then there are four Presidents since the 22nd Amendment limitation of two terms or ten years in office if succeeding to the Presidency with less than two years left of the term when they became President, all of whom could have been elected to another term, had there been no such limit!

Dwight D. Eisenhower could have won and run a third term in 1960, as could Ronald Reagan in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 2000, while Lyndon B. Johnson, had he not dropped out in 1968, likely would have beaten Richard Nixon, since his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, came close to doing so, and did not have the fact of being President to help him win the election!

It is interesting that in all cases mentioned except three—Eisenhower, Johnson, and Clinton–the party of the President who did not run for reelection won the election. Eisenhower saw Richard Nixon lose a close election, despite much evidence of a fixed result for John F. Kennedy in 1960, and Johnson saw Humphrey lose to Nixon in another close election, where LBJ would likely have turned the tide! And Al Gore lost in 2000, despite a popular vote majority, due to the intervention of the Supreme Court in 2000, giving the Presidency to George W. Bush!

So instead of one President with 12 years and 39 days in the Presidency, we could have had, additionally, Andrew Jackson, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton with 12 years in office; Theodore Roosevelt with 11 and a half years in office; and Calvin Coolidge with nine and a half years in office and Lyndon B. Johnson with nine years and two months in office!

And Martin Van Buren, William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush might never have been President if the Presidents before had sought or been able to seek a third term in the Presidency!

PS Another thought that has come to me, belatedly, is that Grover Cleveland (1885-1889, 1893-1897), the only President with two nonconsecutive terms, actually won the popular vote in 1888, but lost in the Electoral College. Had the result been different, Cleveland, in theory, might have run in 1892, anyway, and could have been a three term President, and Benjamin Harrison would never have been President!

Second Term Doldrums Hit Obama Presidency As It Did For FDR, Truman, Ike, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, And Bush II!

Ronald 1 Comment

The second term doldrums have hit the Obama Presidency, and the likelihood of much more being accomplished now seems dim–whether immigration reform, gun regulations, climate change, or anything else.

The same thing happened to Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush in their second terms, and for all but Roosevelt and Truman, the 22nd Amendment, limiting terms of office to two terms, has helped contribute to the problem, as a President, even if he wins a massive second term victory, is still, fundamentally, a “lame duck”, since Congress and the news media know he is term limited, and will not be able to run for the Presidency again.

Scandals have harmed all of these Presidents mentioned, in that second term, with the exception of FDR, and foreign policy controversies also affected all of them, except Nixon and Clinton in their second terms in office.

So the controversies swirling today around Barack Obama will cause more focus to begin sooner on the race to replace him in the White House on January 20, 2017!

Barack Obama Joins Four Other Presidents In Doubling Of Stock Market In His Term!

Ronald 34 Comments

Barack Obama has joined a distinct group of four other Presidents who witnessed a doubling of the Standard and Poors 500 Index during their time in office.

The other four, just like Obama, won a second term in the Presidency, with Franklin D. Roosevelt also winning a third and fourth term, before the 22nd Amendment was passed, preventing any such situation in the future.

The others besides FDR and Obama with this great accomplishment were Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton!

So Obama is anti capitalism, and anti business, the same charges brought against FDR in 1936, but repudiated by the American people!

The right wing has no substance to stand on, so they issue ridiculous charges, which are totally lies and propaganda!

Barack Obama Joins A Unique “Fraternity”: Presidents Who Have Won A Second Term In The White House!

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Barack Obama last night joined a unique “fraternity”—Presidents who have won a second term in the White House.

The following Presidents won a second term:

George Washington
Thomas Jefferson
James Madison
James Monroe
Andrew Jackson
Abraham Lincoln
Ulysses Grant
Grover Cleveland (with one term in between where he won popular vote, but lost the electoral vote in 1888)
William McKinley
Woodrow Wilson
Franklin D. Roosevelt (who won 4 terms before 22nd Amendment was added to the Constitution)
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Richard Nixon
Ronald Reagan
Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
Barack Obama

So 17 Presidents, out of 43 who have held the office, have had a second term.

Of course, Lincoln, McKinley and Nixon failed to finish their second term, with the first two assassinated, and Nixon resigning.

This is a select group, a little more than 40 percent of our Presidents, but what it offers is the likelihood that Obama will end up in the top ten of our Presidents if he has any major success in his second term!

Rare Popularity Of Former “Living” Presidents In Past Century: TR, Ike, Reagan, Clinton

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The Presidency tends to cause the decline of popularity of those who hold that office, because they have to make controversial and difficult decisions which undermine their image after four or eight years in office.

In the past century, in the time of modern media exposure, which makes the Presidency a national concern on a daily basis, most Presidents, upon leaving office, have seen their public opinion rating collapse, and usually, only after they die, does their image, and respect for the difficult decisions they made, revive their popularity among both scholarly experts and the general public.

This discussion, of course, must eliminate those Presidents who did not survive the office, including Warren G. Harding, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and John F. Kennedy. However, FDR and JFK would remain highly popular in death on a regular basis since their deaths, while Harding’s brief popularity after his tragic death collapsed upon learning of the sex and other scandals during his Presidency, and he has not recovered in ratings by any group.

The only Presidents who remained generally popular after leaving office were Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush left office after defeat, and none of them were well regarded after their time in office. Carter and Bush had the bad luck of being followed by popular Presidents Reagan and Clinton, and Bush has had the bad luck of having both his predecessor and successor well regarded, making his time in office look quite unimpressive by comparison.

Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge and Lyndon B. Johnson left office, with each under a cloud of disrepute, with Wilson seeing the defeat of the Versailles Treaty ratification and membership in the League of Nations; Coolidge seeing the coming of the Great Depression crash on Wall Street within months of his retirement; and Johnson having to bear the burden of the Vietnam War: and all three died within four years of retirement, highly unpopular.

Taft regained respect for his service as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court; Richard Nixon gained respect for his foreign policy expertise in his long 20 years of retirement, but did not gain popularity for the rest of his lifetime; Harry Truman also had 20 years of retirement, but only gained popularity and respect after his death; Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter started to be regarded better as the years went by, with Carter about to surpass Herbert Hoover in longevity after the Presidency, but still condemned by many experts and the general public; and George W. Bush remains unpopular and seems resigned to the fact that he may not gain popularity or respect until he has passed from the scene.

Eisenhower and Reagan retained their public popularity in their post Presidency despite scholarly criticism of their time in office, and both are now regarded more highly, even by scholars, than they were when they were retired and alive.

TR and Clinton share a special bond, as both were young when leaving office; both were highly verbal and opinionated and constantly made news; both had charisma and were loved by the general public in their post retirement years; and TR actually ran for President on a third party line, while Bill Clinton would love to run again, as many Americans wish he could be President again, but of course, the 22nd Amendment prevents that, so instead, the push for his wife, Hillary Clinton, to try for the Presidency again in 2016 is growing!

Time For Reality Check On Balanced Budget Constitutional Amendment And Third Party Potential For Success In Presidential Elections

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Unfortunately, many Americans, probably a vast majority, live with a false set of facts about American government, as it stands under the Constitution. There is a major need for a reality check!

Many people, including Republicans in Congress, seem to think that a balanced budget amendment will solve our economic problems, when there is absolutely no chance of that occurring! Any constitutional amendment required a two thirds vote of the House of Representatives, followed by a two thirds vote of the US Senate, and then a majority vote in each of the two houses in three fourths or 38 of the 50 states, with the only exception being Nebraska, which only has a one house or unicameral legislature.

We are not ever going to bring about 290 out of 435 votes in the House of Representatives and 67 out of 100 votes in the Senate for such an amendment! Only 36 proposed amendments have EVER achieved this two thirds vote, and the number of failed amendments is in the hundreds over our history!

But notice, even with 36 amendments making it through the Congress, we have only 27 amendments, telling us that NINE amendments failed to gain a three fourths support of state legislatures. Another way to put it is that IF there is a one vote majority in one of the two houses of the state legislatures against an amendment in just THIRTEEN states at a minimum, the amendment fails to be added to the Constitution.

There is no realistic possibility of a balanced budget amendment EVER making it into the Constitution, no matter what politicians say! And were it to happen, it would create a strait jacket, paralyzing us in a time of economic collapse, war, or natural disaster, no matter what limitations are put into such an amendment. It is time for serious minded people to give up the idea that such an amendment will EVER pass, and instead, take responsibility for the fact that the federal government IS necessary, and that we are all going to have to pay more taxes, whether we like it or not, and that it is PATRIOTIC to pay our fair share, including the super wealthy being thankful for their good fortune, and paying the tax level they used to pay from the 1940s through the 1970s, and certainly at the least, the levels of the Bill Clinton years in the White House!

It is also time for “dreamers”, who have the view that a serious third party movement could lead to the election of a President, to get a reality check as well!

Our electoral college system, which can only be changed by a constitutional amendment, which is not going to happen either, prevents a third party candidate from winning, with Theodore Roosevelt performing the best as a third party candidate of the Progressive Party in 1912, but only winning six states and 88 electoral votes, about a third of what is needed to win the White House. The only reason even he did that well was that he was a former President and extremely popular. Such a scenario will NEVER happen again, particularly with the 22nd Amendment, which limits Presidents to two complete terms in office, something not existing in 1912, when Theodore Roosevelt ran for what would have been a third, but non consecutive term as President.

Even if such a thing could happen, a third party candidate without major party backing would have an impossible situation gaining support to govern effectively, as indeed, independent Governor Jesse Ventura of Minnesota discovered in his term from 1999-2003!

For good or for bad, we are stuck with the two party system, and we will be electing a Democrat or a Republican for the Presidency for the long term future!

So forget the constitutional amendment route for a balanced budget, and ignore the thoughts of a third party movement electing a President, and instead accept the reality of the American future–we need to work within the system and just pick better people for public office, as we always have the right to do by voting and organizing, and stop hating our government, which with its faults, is still essential and necessary in our daily lives, as much as we would wish otherwise in our dreams!

Bill Clinton’s Statement Good Reason For 22nd Amendment

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At the time that the Republican 80th Congress passed the 22nd Amendment in 1947 and passed it on to the state legislatures to ratify, there were many who might have regretted that amendment.

But the amendment, which limited future Presidents after Harry Truman from matching Franklin D. Roosevelt’s four elections to the Presidency, was in the long run, a good measure, and former President Bill Clinton’s statement today that had it not been for the amendment, he would have wanted to be in the Presidency “until I was carried away in a coffin, or defeated in an election” is excellent proof of the value of that amendment.

The point is that change in the executive branch is necessary, as the power of that office can lead to corruption if any President feels he is indispensable. Just as the Pope or anyone in any position high or low can be replaced, so can the President of the United States, and the four Presidents who have had two complete terms since 1953 are proof of why it is good there are term limits.

Dwight D. Eisenhower was 70 at the end of his second term and was smart enough to realize that his age was a limit, that it was better for a younger man to have that responsibility.

Ronald Reagan was starting to show signs of mental deterioration in his second term and left at 78, certainly an age when no one should be having the burdens of the Presidency on his shoulders.

Bill Clinton had already lowered the dignity of his office by the Monica Lewinsky scandal in his second term, and the thought that he would have the gall to have run again endlessly if there was no amendment, is itself a good enough justification to have been fortunate to have term limits.

And, of course, George W. Bush having a possible third term or more is enough to give any sane person a nightmare beyond belief! 🙂

So the 22nd Amendment is intact, ironically due to the GOP, which has had three of the four Presidents who might have been eligible for a third term were it not for what the party did in 1947. At least back then, they actually brought about something constitutionally that made sense!