Adlai Stevenson

Presidential Debate Dates Announced For Colorado, Kentucky, New York And Florida

Ronald Leave a comment

The Commission on Presidential Debates has announced the dates and locations for the Presidential debates of 2012.

The first debate will be at the University of Denver in Colorado, on Wednesday, October 3, just about five weeks before the election.

On Thursday, October 11, the Vice Presidential debate will take place at Centre College In Danville, Kentucky, where an earlier debate was held.

Then on Tuesday, October 16, a second Presidential debate will be held at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, also a previous debate location.

Finally, on Monday, October 22, the final debate will be held at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, just fifteen days before the election.

The fact that two of the debates are in “swing states”, the first and the last, is noteworthy, based on the concept of “first impressions” and “last licks or opportunity”!

A planned backup site, in case for some reason one of the debates cannot for some reason be held, is Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, the ultimate “swing” state, which was won by John McCain over Barack Obama by just a few thousand votes, with it taking many days before McCain could be declared the winner in that state.

One should point out that since 1900, only TWICE has the winner of the Presidency lost Missouri, and both times just by a few thousand votes–Dwight D. Eisenhower losing to Adlai Stevenson in 1956, and Barack Obama losing to John McCain in 2008!

The only candidates to be allowed in the debates will be those who have 15 percent support in the polls, with Ross Perot in 1992 being the only third party candidate to have the opportunity to debate the Republican and Democratic nominees. It is highly unlikely that any third party movement will have any chance to reach that threshold!

The Battle Over The Democratic National Convention Site For 2012

Ronald Leave a comment

Very soon, there will be an announcement as to where the Democratic National Convention will be held in September 2012.

The author has written about this earlier, and correctly predicted that the Republican National Convention would be held in late August 2012 in Tampa, Florida.

As stated earlier, the author predicts the convention will be held in St. Louis, Missouri, winning over the cities of Minneapolis, Minnesota; Cleveland, Ohio; and Charlotte, North Carolina.

St. Louis has hosted the Democratic National Convention before, with Woodrow Wilson nominated for his second term in that Mississippi River city in 1916.

St. Louis has the Gateway Arch, an iconic symbol of the nation, and is the major city in a state that is a very clear predictor of the presidential election results, as since 1900, only twice–1956 and 2008–did the Presidential winner lose Missouri. And in both losing cases, Adlai Stevenson and John McCain just barely defeated Dwight D. Eisenhower and Barack Obama.

Missouri will be difficult to win for the Democrats, but it is a crucial state, and holding the convention there would be a boost to the chances of winning the state.

However, having said that, the records show that the Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party has won the state in which the national convention was held a total of 23 times, and lost it 22 times!

So there is obviously no guarantee of what will happen in the Presidential election, whether the convention is held in Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, or Minnesota. All three of the other states were won by the Democrats in 2008, but all three, along with Missouri, are in play for 2012 at this stage of the campaign, nearly two years out.

Still, it seems to the author that Missouri and St. Louis are the most likely choice, and it will be interesting to see if he is correct on the Democratic convention location, as he was on the Republican convention location. 🙂

The Ultimate Battleground For The 2012 Presidential Election: The Midwest!

Ronald Leave a comment

As a result of the Midterm Elections of 2010, it is becoming clear that the 2012 Presidential Election will be ultimately decided in the Midwest, an area of the country suffering more heavily from the Great Recession, and also an area that is losing a significant number of seats in the House of Representatives reapportionment that will take place, as a result of the Census of 2010!

Even though the Midwest is losing electoral votes because of a smaller relative population as compared to the growing Sun Belt, it still contains states that are among the top ten states in population plus others that are in the next ten states in population!

It is also an area that can presently be described as “purple”, rather than “blue” or “red”, but has moved in the direction of the Republican party in the midterm elections due to the economic hard times and the tendency to blame the party in the White House for the poor economic conditions!

With all of the key Midwestern states electing Republican governors except for Illinois, and many state legislatures and House seats going over to the GOP, it poses a massive problem for the Democrats and President Barack Obama as they look at the electoral scene for 2012!

However, two of those states historically are particularly crucial in a Presidential election–Ohio and Missouri!

Ohio has been the decisive state for the Republican Party, as every Republican President since the first one, Abraham Lincoln, to the last one, George W. Bush, has won Ohio! At the same time, it means that if Ohio goes to the Democrats, as say Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, the chances of Gerald Ford and John McCain were therefore dashed!

Missouri, if anything, has been the true bellwether state, as every single time since 1900, except 1956 and 2008, the winner of Missouri has become President! And even Dwight D. Eisenhower came close to defeating Adlai Stevenson in Missouri in 1956, and Barack Obama came extremely close to defeating John McCain in Missouri in 2008!

Since the Atlantic Coast of the nation–New England and the Middle Atlantic–is seen as solidly Democratic except maybe for New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and the Pacific Coast also seen as solidly Democratic, while most of the South, maybe all of it including Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, are seen as solidly Republican next time, and much of the Mountain West and Great Plains also solidly “red”, it will be the Midwest which will decide the electoral winner again next time!

So the Democrats and Barack Obama will have to make inordinate efforts to appeal for support in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and cannot afford to lose much of this area if the party and Obama are to win in 2012!

That is one of the reasons why the Democratic Party is planning its national convention in the Midwest in 2012, with St. Louis, Cleveland, and Minneapolis as the key competitors for that honor!

So despite declining population percentages, the heartland of the nation again will be the central focus in the upcoming national elections in 2012!