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Predictions On 119th Congress (2025-2027) Races

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This author and blogger senses that the Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress, since the Republicans have had a disastrous two years under Speaker Kevin McCarthy for nine months and then Speaker Mike Johnson, having the fewest accomplishments in legislation in more than a century.

While it is very difficult to project on 435 House races, it seems likely that some Republican seats in New York and California are likely to go to the Democrats, along with some gain of seats in the South, specifically in Alabama and Louisiana.

Likely, the majority will be, however, only on a few seats, as is now the situation.

The Senate will likely see a slight Republican majority, with the retirement of Joe Manchin, insuring that a Republican will replace him.

However, if all Democrats running for reelection, and those running to replace fellow Democrats, seem likely to win, that sets up a possible 50-50 Senate, which the Vice President would organize.

It depends on whether Republicans Ted Cruz in Texas, Rick Scott in Florida, and Deb Fischer in Nebraska can keep their seats. If any of them lose, we would see a Democratic controlled Senate.

If however, Democrats Jon Tester in Montana or Sherrod Brown in Ohio lose their seats, the Republicans would have the majority of the Senate.

60th Anniversary Of March On Washington: Need For Renewal Of That Effort!

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Today, 60 years after the famous March on Washington in 1963, and the legendary speech by the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther, King Jr. calling for justice and basic civil rights for African Americans and other discriminated groups, we are having a commitment to restore the civil rights that are under attack in recent years by the US Supreme Court, the Republican Party, and extreme right wing forces.

It is expected that about 100,000 people will participate in today’s commemoration in Washington, DC, as compared to the 250,000 who did so on August 28, 1963.

The struggle against forces that have taken away the right to vote requires a new national commitment to restoring the weakened Voting Rights Act of 1965.

And the open racism and nativism and misogyny promoted by Donald Trump and his minions must be fought tooth and nail through lawsuits, marches, and demonstrations against state governments that are limiting basic human rights, with Florida, Texas, Tennessee, and Alabama in the leadership of setting American rights and freedoms in the wrong direction!

Ten States Refuse To Expand Medicaid, No Concern About Health Care For Millions!

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North Carolina just became, finally, the 40th state to expand Medicaid for its poorer, less fortunate citizens!

It is mind boggling that TEN states, mostly Southern, refuse to care about health care for millions of their populations combined.

These states are:

Florida
Texas
South Carolina
Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Wisconsin
Kansas
Wyoming

This needs to be emphasized for those states that are likely to have Republican Presidential contenders, including Florida (Ron DeSantis), Texas (Greg Abbott and Ted Cruz), and South Carolina (Nikki Haley, Tim Scott).

It is unconscionable that Republicans who are supposedly “pro life” on abortion have no concern about the lives of their poor constituents!

It is a crime against humanity, and should be rectified!

Marjorie Taylor Greene Promoting Secession Of “Red” From “Blue” States!

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Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a true whacko, is promoting the idea of secession of “Red” states from “Blue” states.

She is clearly crazy, as she fails to realize that Blue areas are found in most states that are not rural–meaning urban and suburban areas–and so called “Blue’ States contribute much more to the national economic system than do so called “Red’ States.

The so called “Red” states are mostly rural, and in 2022, they are the poorest, most dependent on the redistribution of income primarily coming from wealthier, more urbanized and suburbanized “Blue” states.

The poorest states are almost completely “Red” states—West Virginia, New Mexico, Mississippi, Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Wyoming, Montana–with only New Mexico and Maine being “Blue” states based on state government control.

What makes America the nation that it has become is the diversity of America–the industry, the universities, the culture of varying groups who live in cities and suburban areas—not the isolation of “Red” rural America, which lives, in many respects, in the 19th century, while “Blue” America represents the 21st century!

Long Overdue For 11 States To Expand Medicaid Coverage!

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Hard to believe, but in 2023, there are still ELEVEN states that have refused to take care of their poorer citizens by expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare)!

Eight of these eleven states are in the South, including the megastates of Texas and Florida, and that should be used by the Democrats against Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis, when and if they announce for President, which at least, DeSantis is expected to do soon!

The other states that are recalcitrant, and show lack of concern for the lives of their less fortunate citizenry are Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee!

Also, outliers outside the South are Kansas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming!

It is time for these eleven states to stop their resistance, and protect human lives, as much as they are pushing for protecting every fetus in the womb!

Poorest States Never Get The Message, Still Vote Republican Despite Lack Of Action On Poverty

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The ten poorest states in America are all in the South and Border South, with the one exception of New Mexico, which is the only one of those ten states which votes Democratic.

Despite their poverty, with large numbers of poor whites, these states continue to vote Republican, and have among the most incompetent and uncaring state governments and political leaders.

Why these states’ voters do not get the message that voting Republican insures no action is taken on their poverty situations is clearly due to their lack of education and awareness of reality.

These ten states, in order of poverty are:

Mississippi
New Mexico
Louisiana
West Virginia
Alabama
Kentucky
South Carolina
Arkansas
Tennessee
North Carolina

Lyndon B. Johnson’s War on Poverty in the 1960s was a beginning, but not followed through on under later Republican Presidents, including Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and Donald Trump in particular.

When Democrats Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama attempted to move forward, Republican intransigence prevented much progress, and this issue remains one that needs to be addressed by Joe Biden, although with the Republicans potentially controlling the Senate, and with a smaller Democratic margin in the House of Representatives, it will be very difficult to do so.

Final Projection On Congressional Elections Of 2020

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With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.

The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.

Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.

The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.

The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:

Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally

Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner

Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins

Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue

Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines

North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis

Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst

Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall

South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham

Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.

Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!

Senator Doug Jones Of Alabama A True Asset Who Democrats Need to Keep Seat

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Senator Doug Jones of Alabama is a rarity.

Other than Virginia’s two Senators, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, there are no other Democrats in the Senate from the states that made up the Confederate States of America in the Civil War, except for Doug Jones.

Jones is a true asset, as when he was the US Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama under President Bill Clinton from 1997-2001, he successfully prosecuted two Ku Klux Klan members for the 1963 church bombing in Birmingham which killed four African American girls, a major accomplishment after nearly four decades of no justice in that case.

In the Senate, where he won over former Judge Roy Moore, a truly horrendous Republican nominee to replace former Senator Jeff Sessions, he has conducted himself as a moderate Democrat, who has demonstrated his willingness to work with opposition Republicans, and to split with his party on certain issues.

While he is not a liberal Democrat by any means, he offers a better alternative than Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville, the former Auburn University football coach.

Jones has supported some gun control legislation; backs gay marriage; endorses protection of DACA immigrants; is pro choice on abortion; opposes repeal of ObamaCare; and comes across as reasonable and decent.

There is no perfect choice in any Southern election, with such strong Republican and conservative dominance, but it is hoped that Jones will win a full term, as he deserves it, and is a step forward in a state where no Democrat had won state wide for a generation!

His hoped for victory would help to make the Democrats the majority in the US Senate, which is essential for the future advancement of the party agenda in the next four years!

Donald Trump A Combination Of George Wallace, Joseph McCarthy, John C. Calhoun: The Most Demagogic Figures In American Political History!

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Donald Trump can be seen as a combination of three demagogues we have witnessed in American history.

He is George Wallace (1919-1998), the Alabama Governor, who ran for President in 1968, and gained five states and 46 electoral votes, preaching racism and white supremacy. Fortunately, he was a third party candidate, and not a serious possibility to win the White House.

He is Joseph McCarthy (1908-1957), the Wisconsin Republican Senator, who promoted the Red Scare in the early 1950s, and had Roy Cohn as his chief aide. In later years, Roy Cohn was a friend and had an impact on young Donald Trump, and Trump now has a young aide, Stephen Miller, who is as nasty and mean spirited as Cohn was. Until McCarthy destroyed himself at the Army-McCarthy hearings in 1954, many saw him as a potential threat for the future, possibly even running for President.

He is also John C. Calhoun (1782-1850), the South Carolina Senator in the 19th century, who promoted secession, states rights, slavery, and white supremacy. As Vice President for nearly eight years under John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson, he was a heartbeat away from the Presidency. Although Calhoun died in 1850, many would later say that he helped to bring on the Civil War that began a decade after his death.

Eleven State Governors Ignoring Need For Shutdown To Combat CoronaVirus Pandemic!

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Eleven state governors, all Republicans, are ignoring the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and refusing to shutdown their states to combat the threat!

Alabama

Arkansas

Iowa

Missouri

Nebraska

North Dakota

Oklahoma

South Carolina

South Dakota

Utah

Wyoming

At the same time, other Republican states held off, delayed doing so, including

Georgia

Florida

Mississippi

Texas

The delay on the part of Georgia, Florida and Texas, all large populated states, is particularly reckless, but even smaller populated states, by not cooperating, insures a higher level of infection, and more deaths.

All of these governors have failed in their responsibility to protect their population, the most urgent job they have.

By all rights, all of these states’ governors should resign in shame, including the ones that delayed to just today!

One other point to make is that many of these states are mostly small in population, much more rural, and are concentrated in the South and Great Plains and Mountain West, all states known for being much more backward in their concern for their citizens!