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Final Projection On The 2018 Midterm Elections: Democratic House And Senate, And Massive Gain In Democratic Governors

Ronald 2 Comments

The time has come, the day before the Midterm Elections of 2018, to come up with a final projection on the results.

The sense is that the Democrats are in better shape than many polls indicate, although it might be seen by many as fanciful thinking on my part.

But I sense that the Democrats will do very well on Tuesday, as the first time, other than special elections, to register the people’s view on Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

Yes, there is the loyal base, but that is below 40 percent of the nation.

It seems clear that Independents, Suburban men and women, millennials of both genders, African Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans, the Jewish community, and Social Justice Catholics are united in their disgust at the behavior, policies, and corruption of Donald Trump and his administration.

The American people are a good people overall, and one must remember that Donald Trump lost the popular vote massively, but now all that matters is winning more votes than any opponent, and in that regard, Trump and the Republicans who refused to take a stand against him, are on the way to a massive repudiation by the voters.

That does not mean that every nasty Republican will lose or every Democrat that many would wish elected will be successful.

And it could be that, as in 2016, this blogger and author could be way off in his assessment, and I am prepared for that, as much as one can be.

But my inner being tells me the following:

There are so many Republican seats in play in the House of Representatives, including those that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, that one has to believe that many are turning Democratic in this election—including in upstate New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, and California. So expect that while in theory there could be as many as maybe 71 or as few as 15 gains by the Democrats, my feeling is that a safe number is 40-45 seats, which if 45, would make for about 240 Democrats to 195 Republicans, basically a switch from what it is now.

In the US Senate, the Democrats would have to win a net gain of two seats, which now seems attainable. This blogger senses a gain of four Republican seats—Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and even Texas with Beto O’Rourke, but with a loss of two seats, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Joe Donnelly in Indiana. But that means Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Bill Nelson in Florida would retain their seats, as all three are tough political leaders. So if this all happened, a bit of a miracle, there would be 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, so the Democrats would control and organize the Senate. This prognosis also means the three leading politicians who this author has placed on his “Dream List” of those he wanted defeated, would be—-Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, and Marsha Blackburn.

As far as Governorships, the Democrats have 16 right now, and my projection is that they would gain the Midwest states of Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Kansas, along with Southern states Florida and Georgia, along with New Mexico, Nevada, and New England states Maine and Vermont, giving them a total of 28 states under Democratic control. This also means that Scott Walker and Kris Kobach would not be elected in Wisconsin and Kansas, making my “Dream List” fulfilled for the first five on the list.

On the other hand, it is likely that Steve King will win in Iowa for his Congressional seat, although this blogger believes David Brat in his Richmond, Virginia Congressional seat, will lose.

So overall, all but Steve King on my “Dream List” to defeat would lose, while all five of my “Dream List” to win—Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams, Richard Cordray, and Gavin Newsom, would be triumphant.

This blogger and author may look silly two or three days from now, but that is my final projection, and we shall see!

The Truth About The Evangelical Right: Racist, Nativist, Misogynistic, Homophobic, Corrupt To The Core, And Money Making Machine!

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The Evangelical Right is a mockery of Christianity, clear and simple.

It is a movement in America that is clearly racist, nativist, misogynistic, homophobic, and corrupt to the core, and a money making machine.

It exploits millions of gullible, clueless suckers, many of whom are poor, and send their last dollar to one or another evangelist, such as Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell, Jr, or Franklin Graham and other charlatans.

It has a history of being against civil rights for African Americans, until they were forced by civil rights laws in the 1960s and since, to stop being openly racist. And yet, there are African Americans who back them, totally naive and unaware of the history.

It has a history of nativism, first against Irish and German Catholics in the mid 19th century, then against Jews (and still antisemitic although they claim support of the nation of Israel, but with the intent of converting Jews to Christianity), and more recently, supporting action against immigrants who are Hispanic or Asian in identity. And yet, there are those of these backgrounds who support such bigots, often totally unaware of the truth.

It has a history of treating women as second class citizens, wishing women to stay behind their man, obey him, never challenge his authority, and avoid anything other than motherhood and not complaining about sexual harassment and abuse, just accepting their plight in life. And yet, there are millions of such women who back them, clearly brain washed.

It has a history of being openly homophobic, and repudiating their children who are gay and lesbian, proving that their so called belief in “family values” is a farce. They encourage repudiation, and total rejection, and in so doing, encourage violence, and many such families have their progeny homeless, poor, and exploited due to their promotion of hatred against people on their natural sexual inclinations.

It has a history of being corrupt, with many such evangelists and preachers having multiple affairs outside of marriage, and stealing large amounts of funds to promote a luxury life style, while their congregants live in deprivation, and they have no moral conscience or ethics. They lie, cheat, and deceive without any sense of guilt. They have become a money making machine while preaching just the opposite, so are totally hypocritical.

For such so called “religious” people to throw in their lot with the most corrupt. immoral, unethical President of the United States, Donald Trump, is proof of their massive sin in the name of Jesus Christ, who would never have endorsed or approved in any fashion, the massive sins of the Evangelical Right, which is undermining any respect for organized religion, by intelligent, thoughtful, considerate and decent Americans.

Fortunately, the percentage that follows this despicable “Cult” is declining rapidly, and will be continuing to deteriorate, due to the rapidly diversifying of the American population in the next few decades.

As 2017 Ends, Trump Approval Rating In Rapid Decline, And Democrats In Rapid Rise Among Major Voting Groups

Ronald 1 Comment

As 2017 ends, Donald Trump is in free fall in his approval rating.

CNN has just come up with new figures that show the Trump base is rapidly declining in its support of the person they backed in 2016.

The approval rating overall has dropped to an all time low of 32 percent from a high in February of 39 percent right after Trump’s inauguration.

Republicans have dropped from 84 percent to 76 percent in their support, shocking in the fact it has not dropped much more, and a sign that the GOP might be in its death knell, as many observers have predicted.

Men have declined in support from 45 percent to 40 percent.

Whites support for Trump dropped from 49 percent to 41 percent.

Those over 50 years of age declined in support of Trump from 47 percent to 38 percent.

White Evangelicals, a major part of Trump support, despite the hypocrisy involved, went from 78 percent to 61 percent.

And White Non College support went from 56 percent to 46 percent.

When specific groups of voters have dropped 5 points to 17 points in nine months, that is a danger sign for the future.

Beyond these specific groups, it is clear that women, young voters, suburbanites, college educated, and African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans are clearly going over to the Democratic Party, and this is what fueled victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and Alabama.

So the future bodes well for the Democratic Party in the upcoming Congressional and Gubernatorial and state legislative races in November 2018.

Sunbelt States (Texas, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) Will Make Rust Belt Mid West (Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio) No Longer Factor In Future Presidential Elections By Mid 2020s And After

Ronald 4 Comments

In the midst of constant rehashing of the 2016 Presidential Election results, one point is being lost by political observers.

The nation is changing demographically very rapidly.

What happened in Virginia on Election Day this year is a sign of the future. Suburbanites, women, minorities, white collar educated, those under 45, and Independents swung over massively to the Democratic Party.

Those trends are not temporary, but permanent, as the older generation, which tends to be more conservative, dies off over the next decade, and the percentage of more educated people grows, and as the percentages of Latinos and Asian Americans start to change Sun Belt states.

So the near future is clearly that the states of Texas, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina will turn Blue, while the Rust Belt Mid West, not as populated with the groups that helped to make Virginia as Blue a state as it is (Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio) may go back and forth from Red to Blue, but in the Electoral College, the Rust Belt Mid West will matter much less than it did in 2016, assisting the victory of Donald Trump.

So one can say with a great amount of assurance that by 2024 or 2028, the Democrats will have the electoral advantage in the Electoral College, and are unlikely to lose it, as the Republican Party continues to alienate even their base of less educated and rural voters, and as the Sun Belt turns Democratic long term.

Of course, as part of this transition, the Democratic Party needs to move to the Left, be more progressive and liberal,and not come across as a moderate alternative to the Democratic Party, as that is the future of the party, to act more like it is the time of Franklin D. Roosevelt or Lyndon B. Johnson. This is what the groups which helped the Virginia victory desire for the future.

Democratic Victories In Virginia, New Jersey, And Elsewhere Sign Of Repudiation Of Trump, And Beginning Of Impeachment Move

Ronald 84 Comments

Yesterday was a glorious day for Democrats across the board.

Ralph Northam won the Virginia Governorship, and the Democrats also won the Lieutenant Governorship and State Attorney Generalship, as as well as switch the control of the House Of Delegates in a massive defeat for Republicans. The Lieutenant Governor is Justin Fairfax, first African American in that position in Virginia history.

A transgender woman in Virginia defeated a rabid homophobe for a seat in the House of Delegates. And the boyfriend of a woman murdered on live television in 2015, ran on the gun issue and won a seat in the House of Delegates in her memory. Two Latinas were also elected to the House of Delegates, as well as a Vietnamese Asian American woman for the first time in Virginia.

New Jersey saw the repudiation of Chris Christie’s lieutenant governor, by Democrat Phil Murphy. And an African American woman was elected Lieutenant Governor.

Maine expanded Medicaid over the objections of right wing bully Republican Governor Paul Le Page.

New Hampshire saw Manchester’s Mayoralty fall to the Democratic nominee.

Minneapolis, Minnesota City Council saw the election of a transgender African American woman.

St. Paul, Minnesota and Helena, Montana elected African Americans to the Mayoralty of both cities, a first for both .

Charlotte, North Carolina Mayoralty went to an African American woman.

Two small cities in Georgia elected an African American woman Mayor, and two African American men won that office, one in a city in Georgia, and one in South Carolina.

Hoboken, New Jersey elected a man of the Sikh religion as its Mayor.

A woman was elected Nassau County, New York (on Long Island) County Executive for the first time, and a rare case of a Democrat winning that position.

The State Senate in Washington State went to a Democratic majority, making the entire Pacific Coast “Blue”, in California, Oregon and Hawaii, along with Washington State.

City Mayors, all Democrats, were reelected in New York City, Boston, and Detroit and a lesbian Mayor elected in Seattle, among other places.

Growing numbers of incumbent Republicans are deciding not to run for reelection, creating more open seats and making likelihood of Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives in 2018 much more likely.

Suburban areas across the nation are growing more Democratic on paper, after massive victories all over the nation.

Northern Virginia has become more powerful in numbers and percentage, overcoming southern and western sections of Virginia, making Virginia clearly a Blue State in the future.

With many Republicans now planning to retire, expect more criticism of Donald Trump, and a growing shift toward impeachment of Trump, since retiring politicians have an independence not seen otherwise, so just as John McCain. Jeff Flake. and Bob Corker have come out against Trump, more can be expected in both houses of Congress.

And for many Republicans who remain, they may prefer Mike Pence in the White House when they are running for reelection, and since Trump shows no loyalties to the party which gave him their nomination, why should they feel an obligation to support him through thick and thin?

Donald Trump Wants A White Anglo Christian Dominated America, But The Cause Is Already Lost

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Donald Trump clearly wants a White Anglo Christian dominated America, like the one he and I grew up in during the 1950s and 1960s.

But that is a lost cause, due to the immigration laws passed under Lyndon B. Johnson in the 1960s, and the high birth rate among African Americans, Latino Americans, and Asian Americans.

The white population did not reproduce in large enough numbers, after the massive Baby Boom of 1946-1964, and also many young people have intermarried with people of different races and cultures, creating a large number of mixed race people.

Is this something to be upset about or concerned that it will change America?

The answer is CLEARLY NO, as diversity through marriage and immigration enriches America, and this blogger has never for a moment felt concern for the future by these demographic changes.

America is enriched by immigration and intermarriage, and the only threat is the alarm expressed by white supremacists and white nationalists who think a multiracial and multi religious America indicates a downturn in the future of America.

America is the greatest nation in the world, precisely because we are a nation of all nations, of all nationalities, of all religions, of all racial and cultural groups.

The Issue Of Punishing Neo Nazis, Ku Klux Klan, White Supremacists, Alt Right By Firing Them From Their Jobs: Why It Is Proper To Do It!

Ronald 1 Comment

The issue has arisen about, in the aftermath of the Charlottesville, Virginia White Supremacy tragedy, whether it is proper for employers to punish Neo Nazis, Ku Klux Klan members, White Supremacists, and the Alt Right, by firing those who work for them. A number of participants have already been fired by their employers for participation in the despicable rally.

The argument is that they do not reflect the value systems of the companies they work for, and that their prejudiced views are worthy of dismissal.

Many of the young men at the Charlottesville rally were “outed” by social media, and became “victims” of the outrage of millions of Americans.

Certainly, anyone has a right to his or her own political, social, and economic views, but it is well known that employers have complete authority to hire and fire, and often do it on grounds that are unjust, including against women, gays and lesbians, Latinos, Muslims, African Americans and Asian Americans.

But these cases just listed are based on discrimination grounds, and should and are often fought in the courts under the civil rights laws.

So if one’s extremist views are the issue, it is not the same as one’s gender, sexual orientation, race or ethnicity.

Promoting hate, violence, and bloodshed is a very different issue, and IS justifiable grounds for dismissal from work.

Maybe these young men can reform themselves, when they see the visceral reaction of decent people, and the hope is that they will reform, and change, and repudiate their biased views, and then forgiveness can be considered.

Otherwise, they are on the road of criminality and federal and state prison, and a disgrace to their families, so this situation can be a learning experience.

Donald Trump’s Lack Of Concern For Human Rights In America And Other Nations

Ronald Leave a comment

We now have a President who does not give a damn about human rights, whether in America or in other nations around the world. He embraces authoritarian leadership with gusto.

Nothing matters more than the defense and protection of human rights, but here we have a President who flirts with white supremacists, who promote antisemitism, anti Muslim, anti African American, anti Asian, anti Latino, and misogynistic attacks, and he has nary a word to say.

Here is a President who denounces Muslim terrorism, but ignores Christian extremists who encourage anti Muslim threats, and stir the kind of disaster that occurred in Portland, Oregon, by a Christian extremist, who stabbed three courageous men with two murdered, who defended two young women on a train from anti Muslim hatred.

Here is a President who consorts with governments that deny their citizens basic human rights, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Russia, the Philippines, China and others, giving up the American ideal of speaking up for the basic rights of all people.

Trump even has the gall to say we have no desire to tell other nations how to treat their own citizens, when we have always stood, at least in theory, if not in action, for condemnation of such violations.

Trump has no concern for America’s basic values of civil rights, civil liberties, and human decency, and is ready to abuse those in any way he can, and to embrace foreign dictators who do the same.

This is not what our President should be representing or doing, and he needs to be attacked vigorously on this every day until he finally is forced out of office as a disgrace to the Presidency!

The Donald Trump Voters And Loyalists: Their Characteristics

Ronald 1 Comment

One listens and watches news coverage of Trump voters and supporters, and remains amazed that his followers fail to see any shortcoming in Donald Trump, and remain loyal, more than 90 percent so after four disastrous months, as of today, May 20.

We have never had a President stir up so much trouble and chaos in four months in office, and have nothing to show for it, except one Supreme Court Justice, Neil Gorsuch.

What motivates these Trump voters and loyalists? What are their characteristics?

It seems clear the following is a list of factors in no special order.

Many are highly religious, whether Catholic, Christian, or Jewish, and they are accustomed to the acceptance of authority and hierarchy, and are not the type to challenge, but rather accept.

Many are poorly educated, have low self esteem, and hate educated, smart people, and the concept of “facts”.

Many are struggling to survive economically, and fail to see that the “swamp” that Donald Trump pledged to destroy, is in full control, with all of the billionaires and multimillionaires, so they have been successfully bamboozled by a true demagogue, who could not care less about the plight of the working class whites who supported him.

Many are, sorry to say, pure racists, nativists, antisemites, and Islamophobes, who hate African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, Jewish Americans, and Muslim Americans, who they feel are “stealing” the “birthright” of white Christian Americans, who are “entitled” in a way these groups are not.

Many are believers that the family structure has been destroyed by feminism, and believe woman should be second class citizens, and sadly, many of their wives and daughters and sisters and girlfriends are too willing to accept their status as being inferior, having been brought up to “obey” men, and strict orthodoxy in religion promotes that.

Many of the men love the kind of raw, gross behavior of Donald Trump, as he is seen as like “one of the guys” at the local bar, the local hangout, and as an example of the macho male, that many have been brought up to believe is a good trait.

Many have no compassion for others who are sick, disabled, or poor. as those are seen as signs of weakness, except when those close to them suddenly end up in one of these categories, a total contradiction of their way of life.

Many are simply those who have no understanding of the importance of government, and are basically selfish and self centered, and have no social commitment to anyone they do not know personally.

Sadly, these characteristics demonstrate that America has about one third to 40 percent of the nation which contributes nothing positive to the future of America, but allow a small class of wealthy, mean spirited people to dominate and control their reasoning and emotions.

There is no simple answer as to how to combat this trend, but it is a sign of danger for the future of the American nation.

The Cycle Theory Of American History Again In Play

Ronald 5 Comments

The 2016 Presidential election magnified the significance of rural and working class whites, as they decided the election in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

The number of such people is constantly declining as a portion of the population, so the 2016 election is a last hurrah for these groups, as the growing number of people of Latino and Asian heritage will have a great effect on future Presidential elections, as more millennials become of age and are registered to vote.

This right wing tilt is going to have the ability to do great damage to the liberal-progressive tradition of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Lyndon B. Johnson, and Barack Obama in the short term future, but in the middle of the next decade at the latest, the political scene is likely to transform dramatically.

In a way, it is part of the Cycle theory of American history, where a period of reform is followed by a period of reaction, with such reform periods lasting 4-6 years, as with Woodrow Wilson and the New Freedom and New Nationalism, ended by World War I; Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal, ended by World War II; Lyndon B. Johnson and the Great Society, ended by the Vietnam War; and Barack Obama and his reforms, ended by the War on Terrorism, which had a lot to do with Donald Trump’s victory. When we are engaged in concern about foreign policy and national security, it always dampens desire for reform among the people of the United States, who tend to react to fear.