“Battleground States”

Pennsylvania Gains More Campaign Events, Crucial To Harris Victory!

admin 8 Comments

Pennsylvania, the Keystone State, is gaining more campaign events and attention than any other “Swing” or “Battleground” state.

That is because Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, offers more than any other of those states.

The indication is that Pennsylvania is likely to go to Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, but there is growing trepidation about that matter.

If, by some chance, Harris does not win Pennsylvania on November 5, there will be plenty of “Monday Morning Quarterbacking”, that will say that the fatal mistake was Harris passing by extremely popular and charismatic Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her Vice Presidential running mate.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is inspiring and has done an excellent job, but the fear of failure is still omnipresent!

One Month To Election Day: Are Polls To Be Believed?

admin 33 Comments

With one month until Election Day, polls indicate Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris has a slight edge over Donald Trump, but all the seven “Battleground” or “Swing” states are within the margin of error, so anything can happen in the next month to tip the result.

Allan Lichtman of American University has predicted Harris will defeat Trump, but no one can consider any prediction to be certain. Lichtman says the concept of an “October Surprise” is overrated as a factor, but certainly one cannot predict events that could sway voters who have not yet made up their minds.

So Harris is gaining the campaigning support of Barack Obama in particular, but also a host of other public celebrities, plus the support of hundreds of Republicans who worked under Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, and even in the Donald Trump Presidency, along with those who worked for John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Dangers To American Democracy: Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

admin 31 Comments

It is more clear than ever that the major dangers to American democracy are Elon Musk, the owner of X (Twitter); Donald Trump; and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Musk is spending massive amounts of money backing Trump’s bid to go back to the White House, and is promoting as much publicity as possible to support a man who tried to overthrow the US government on January 6, 2021.

And it is clear that mentally, both Trump and RFK Jr are unstable figures who would endanger the stability of America domestically and in foreign affairs.

RFK Jr. has only been able to make it to the ballot in 15 states so far, but may end up on most state ballots, and there are people who without rhyme or reason will vote for him. The danger is if RFK Jr. is on the ballot in “battleground” states, that could tip the balance in the Electoral College! And if he is not on other state ballots, those annoyed by that reality might vote for Trump, who would have gone to Kennedy, otherwise.

So these three individuals are “a clear and present danger”, who yet could determine the future of the nation!

Psychiatric And Cognitive Concerns About Donald Trump Grow, As Harris Makes Major Gains In Polls

admin 2 Comments

Psychiatric and cognitive concerns about Donald Trump are growing, as he is becoming more delusional by the day, lashing out even at his own contributors, and obsessing about size of crowds for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, claiming false AI (Artificial Intelligence) photos!

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has surged to a lead over Trump in polls for Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and signs that she is gaining in Arizona and Nevada, including massive crowds showing up, despite 100 degree weather.

Trump is having trouble conceiving of how Harris replacing Joe Biden, and taking on Tim Walz, is having such a surge for three weeks, and with the Democratic National Convention coming in one week, an event very likely to boost Harris and Walz ever further in public support.

Major amounts of funds and volunteers continue to skyrocket, and more white men than expected are shown to be willing to move toward support of the Democratic ticket, to add to that of minority support, women, and young people.

With 226 electoral votes seen as assuredly Democratic, IF Harris can win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, she would end up with exactly 270 electoral votes, the magic number to win the Presidency, even without Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, the other so called “battleground” states!

“Battleground” States Should Be Expanded By Democrats!

admin 5 Comments

With an expected very close race for the Presidency between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and with three independent or third party challengers being an additional threat to take away votes from the major party candidates, it is urgent that the list of “battleground” states be expanded by Democrats!

The usual belief is that the following states are the “battlegrounds”:

Pennsylvania (19)
Michigan (15)
Wisconsin (10)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Nevada (6)

Total 77 Electoral Votes

But in addition, the following states need to be considered potentials for extra attention financially and through campaign appearances by Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and numerous Democratic supporters in public office:

New Hampshire (4)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (16)
Florida (30)
Minnesota (10)
New Mexico (5)

Total 78 Electoral Votes

Additionally, the Second District of Maine which has gone Republican in the past (2016 and 2020) should be focused on, as well as retaining the Second District of Nebraska, which has gone Democratic two times in the past (2008 and 2020), with both states allowing divided electoral votes for President.

So a total of 12 states and one Congressional District in Nebraska and Maine should be focused on to insure a Democratic victory in November!

So out of 538 Electoral Votes total, 157 are in play!

If Trump Is Convicted, Estimate That Seven Percent Of His Supporters Would Abandon Him, Enough To Elect Joe Biden!

admin Leave a comment

As the primary season begins, indications are that IF Donald Trump is convicted on any of the 91 counts against him over four trials, that it would insure that Trump would be unable to win the Presidency.

An estimate is that at least SEVEN percent of Trump supporters now would abandon him if he was convicted, and facing prison time.

That seven percent may sound as not much, but it is believed it would be the margin of victory for President Joe Biden in key battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all states that Biden won in 2020, before the criminal actions of Donald Trump!

One must recall that Donald Trump has never won the popular vote, and could ill afford to lose seven percent of his support upon a conviction, which seems certain on at least some of the counts against him, as the evidence in the four cases coming up in future months is very strong!

And the belief is that third party or independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, and even a No Labels candidate for the White House would, when push came to shove, do very poorly, reminding us of the Presidential Election of 1948, when two known political leaders, Strom Thurmond and Henry A. Wallace, both expected to undermine Harry Truman against Republican Thomas E. Dewey, both flopped dramatically!

Barack Obama And Joe Biden Reach Their Rhetorical Best, As Presidential Campaign Winds Down

Ronald Leave a comment

Former President Barack Obama has kept his rhetoric down for much of the four years of his successor, but now, with only a week to go to the Presidential Election of 2020, he has utilized his great rhetorical gifts with a blistering, incisive, and at times, ridiculing, attack on Donald Trump, well deserved.

It is a pleasure to see Obama come out in full support and defense of his Vice President, Joe Biden, in such a dramatic and brilliant manner. Obama mocked Trump for saying that the leaders of Russia, China, and North Korea wanted him to win, and Trump’s complaint about Sixty Minutes correspondent Lesley Stahl, stating that if Trump cannot handle Sixty Minutes, how can he handle real crises such as the COVID 19 Pandemic, which Trump refuses to take responsibility for, and now has said cannot be dealt with, other than by a future vaccine.

At the same time, Joe Biden is fired up, and is at his best rhetorically, as well, as he campaigns vigorously in the battleground states. And his visit to Warm Springs, Georgia, the vacation home of Franklin D. Roosevelt, reminds us of a time nine decades ago when we faced a situation thought to be the greatest since the Civil War, but now surpassed by the challenge of not just a Second Great Depression, but also the worst health crisis since the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-1920.

Donald Trump continues to sink in the polls, and soon, the American people will make a clear cut decision to remove this tyrant from office and hold him accountable for his multiple crimes!

“The Progressive Professor”: Accurate Projections On Presidential Electoral Vote!

Ronald 2 Comments

This author is proud to announce that he was 100 percent accurate in his projection on the Electoral College battle for the Presidency!

The prediction was that Barack Obama would win 332 electoral votes to 206 for Mitt Romney, with Obama winning eight of the nine “swing” or “battleground” states, all but North Carolina, and that was, precisely, what happened! Florida was the last state, finally, to finish its vote count and confirm that the Sunshine State was won by Obama.

Also, the Senate prediction was for 54 Democrats and Independents, and the final total is, instead, one more–a total of 55.

And the prediction for the House of Representatives was for a 15 seat gain for the Democrats, but it seems to be only seven for sure, and possibly up to eleven seats, ultimately!

Let’s just say that this author is quite happy in the results, and proud of his predictions being so much on target!

512 Paths To White House For Barack Obama; 76 Paths To White House For Mitt Romney

Ronald 5 Comments

The New York Times and Nate Silver today list 512 Paths to the White House for Barack Obama, and 76 Paths to the White House for Mitt Romney in graph form, using different combinations of “swing” or “battleground” states to demonstrate the various paths.

Leave it to Nate SIlver, the most brilliant political statistician in America, who continues to say that Obama has an 85 percent chance of winning a second term, while Romney has a 15 percent chance of winning the White House.

Ultimately, in about 36-48 hours, we should know whether Nate Silver remains the “genius”, or is indeed a “paper tiger”!

Bet on Nate Silver would be this author’s advice!

Final Projection On Presidential Race: Obama-Biden 332 Electoral Votes, Romney-Ryan 206 Electoral Votes

Ronald 6 Comments

This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.

Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.

The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!

So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.

Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.

It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.

Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.

Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.

This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.

Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!

Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!