“Battleground States”

Growing Possibility Of Libertarian Gary Johnson Having Impact On Presidential Election Of 2012

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Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s Presidential candidate, is showing some strength in polls that indicates he could be the “spoiler” in the 2012 Presidential Election, similar to what Ralph Nader was in the Presidential Election of 2000.

The effect, if Johnson gained a few percent of the vote in “battleground” or “swing” states, would be most likely to hurt Mitt Romney, the Republican Presidential nominee, rather than Democrat Barack Obama, since it seems more likely that libertarian support would come from elements in the GOP.

So the thought is that Johnson could affect the vote in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada, and help, indirectly, President Obama to win those states, although right now, Obama has the edge in Virginia, Florida, and Nevada, and is slightly ahead in Colorado, while behind in North Carolina.

If Johnson can win 3-5 percent of the vote, he could go down in history as notable enough to be recorded as having affected the election, just as Ralph Nader in 2000.

The Romney-Ryan Ticket As Seen By African Americans, Hispanics-Latinos And Women: Worst Since Polling Began!

Ronald 1 Comment

The Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan Presidential ticket is in deep trouble, as polls demonstrate the unbelievable gap that they face gaining support among African Americans, Hispanics-Latinos, and women.

In one poll, Barack Obama leads Romney 94-0 among African Americans! Did you see that, ZERO for Romney, a stunning figure!

In one poll, Barack Obama leads Romney 63-28 among Hispanics-Latinos, a 35 point gap!

And among women, Barack Obama, in a recent poll, leads 54-39 percent, a 15 point gap!!

With absolutely ZERO support among African Americans, 35 points behind among Hispanics-Latinos, and 15 points behind among women, the Romney-Ryan ticket is on the road to total disaster, as they are also behind among labor voters, Jews, young people, moderates, Independents, and also behind Obama in all “swing” or battleground states except North Carolina, and almost even in Colorado.

Although they will win more states in the “heartland”, and therefore more electoral votes than Barry Goldwater did in 1964, they are on the way to a worst defeat than any GOP loser—Gerald Ford, George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole or John McCain–since a half century ago!

Medicare Will Decide The Election: IF Obama Wins Florida AND New Hampshire Of “Battleground” States, He Wins The Presidency!

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Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet The Press just demonstrated how close Barack Obama is to a victory for the White House.

Showing an electoral vote map with 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp and 191 in Mitt Romney’s camp, Todd demonstrates that there are NINE true “battleground” or “swing” states, and if Obama wins Florida and New Hampshire, he has the second term he wants in the White House! And the issue of Medicare, brought to central focus by Paul Ryan and his budget plans on that program, will be the center of the victory of Obama for the Presidency!

Even if Romney wins the other seven contestable states—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada—he would lose the Electoral College 270-268, due to Florida’s 29 electoral votes and New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes!

But, to assume that Obama would really lose all seven of those states is also delusional, as it is certain that he will win some, and probably, most of them!

This author has been saying this for a long time, and has found some readers of this blog, conservative and Republican friends and associates, and people on Fox News Channel and talk radio, act as if only the public opinion polls, which often show a close race in many states and nationally, should be paid attention to, but that is NOT the case!

The election is decided by the Electoral College, NOT the popular vote nationally,and do not forget that George W. Bush LOST the popular vote in 2000, but was declared the winner of the Electoral College! The same happened to Benjamin Harrison, Rutherford Hayes, and John Quincy Adams in the past!

But to conclude that, somehow, Barack Obama will lose the national popular vote, with the Republican alienation of Hispanics-Latinos, African Americans, women, young voters, the middle class, senior citizens, gays and lesbians, the poor, labor, educators, consumer advocates, environmentalists, and secular voters—in each case, the majority, not all of any group, of course—indicates that those believing what they do are indeed delusional, and cannot be helped by ordinary medical intervention!

The Battle For The Jewish Vote In The Presidential Election Of 2012: The Role Of The Republican Jewish Coalition

Ronald 3 Comments

The Jewish vote may be a small percentage of all votes cast in national elections, but it is well known that the Jewish community votes in higher percentages than any other group in American society, and the concentration of the Jewish population in certain states can have a great impact on the electoral college, as for example, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, all swing or battleground states.

So the battle for the Jewish vote is intense, with the Republican Jewish Coalition trying to increase the percentage of the Jewish population willing to vote Republican, which was unsuccessful in 2008, when 78 percent of the Jewish vote went to Barack Obama.

Latest indications are that 64 percent of the Jewish vote presently is in the Obama camp, down 14 points, but still two thirds of all Jews. So the Republican Jewish Coalition is hard at work trying to convince even more Jews of the following ideas:

1, Obama is not sufficiently pro Israel, and cannot be trusted to support Israel, due to the well known tension that exists at times between the Obama Administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

2. Obama refuses to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, because of concerns about the Middle East balance.

3. Obama has not visited Israel as President in his first term, although he did as a candidate in 2008.

The reality is that the Republican Jewish Coalition has distorted reality dramatically, so how can one answer these three accusations?

1. Obama has backed Israel in the United Nations, has supported lots of extra aid and military support to Israel, has spoken up in defense of Israel in every way possible. And Israeli Defense Minister and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and President Shimon Peres have issued lavish praise on Obama as a great friend of Israel, as good as any other American President from Harry Truman through George W. Bush, and both Israeli leaders went out of their way to issue these statements of support.

2. It is true that no move has been made to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, but NO President from Lyndon B. Johnson through George W. Bush has been willing to do so, because of sensitivity about peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and this includes Republican Presidents Richard Nixon,. Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, a total of FIVE Republican Presidents, as compared to FOUR Democratic Presidents, including Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Obama!

3. It is true that Obama has not visited Israel in his first term, but NO President, Democratic nor Republican, has done so in their first term, and of course, Ford, Carter, and Bush I only served one term or less as President.

So the accusations of the Republican Jewish coalition are distorted, untrue, purely propaganda, and it will not succeed in bringing larger than about a third of the Jewish vote to Mitt Romney!

Latest Poll Averages Show Obama Ahead Of Romney In Eleven Of Twelve Battleground States!

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Barack Obama may be only slightly ahead of Mitt Romney nationally in the average of various polls–47.3 percent to 44.7 percent, but when one looks at twelve battleground or swing states, he is ahead of Romney in all but North Carolina, where he trails Romney by 48.5 to 46.5, two percentage points.

Obama is ahead by almost 6 points in Ohio; by 2.5 points in Virginia; by 3 points in Florida; by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania; by almost 4 points in Iowa; by 5.5 points in Nevada; by 5 points in Wisconsin; by 7 points in New Mexico; by 6.5 points in Michigan; and by almost 3 points in New Hampshire. In Colorado, the margin is only two tenths of one point for Obama over Romney, nearly an even split.

So Obama is ahead in 10 of the 12 states listed, all of which he won in 2008, nearly even in Colorado, and only behind in North Carolina!

Not bad considering the blistering attacks and lies and deception that have been going on for three and a half years as President, greater than any President since the last one who was called every name in the book, and yet won a landslide victory in 1936 in the midst of the Great Depression, with unemployment levels still much higher than they are in 2012.

The author is referring here to Franklin D. Roosevelt!

The Misleading Public Opinion Polls: The Electoral College Will Decide The Election, Not A Public Opinion Poll!

Ronald 5 Comments

The public opinion poll industry is, sadly, misinforming the American people, when they try to tell us that the Presidential Election of 2012 is going to be a tight race, some even say, similar to 2000!

The facts are that Barack Obama has to deal with certain factors, including:

Massive HATRED by many people who simply will not accept that we have an African American President and will do whatever is required to defeat him.

The fact that the Citizens United case allows corporations SuperPACS, and billionaires to spend inordinate amounts of money to attempt to poison the atmosphere, and defeat Obama simply by the power of money.

The fact that the Republican Party is trying to disenfranchise millions in 24 states, by refusing to accept alternative forms of identification, such as college student IDs, but, as in Texas, for example, accepting gun permits as an acceptable ID. So we are having poor people, college students, the elderly, and minorities being told they cannot vote, unless they spend large amounts of money, time and travel to acquire what is required under various discriminatory state laws, that violate the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and are veiled poll taxes, outlawed under the 24th Amendment to the Constitution in 1964!

But Attorney General Eric Holder, despite being cited for contempt of Congress for flimsy reasons, is determined to do what is necessary to stop these violations of the right to vote!

In any case, only by race hatred, corrupt fund raising, and violations of the Constitution, amendments and civil rights laws, can the Republicans win, and that is NOT going to happen!

Remember the following, which this author has emphasized again and again!

The election will be won in the “swing states”, the “battleground states”, but there are enough BLUE states already to give Barack Obama a total of 242 electoral votes, 28 short of what is needed, a total of 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency on November 6!

As stated many times before, these states are: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Washington State, Oregon, California, and Hawaii–18 states and Washington, DC.

The “Swing States” or “Battleground States” are as follows: New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada–eleven states with a total of 129 electoral votes, and all of these states, except Missouri won by Barack Obama in 2008, with Missouri lost by just a few thousand votes to John McCain.

So IF Barack Obama wins Florida, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Ohio and Virginia, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins North Carolina and Ohio, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Ohio and Missouri, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia, he wins the Presidency!

Obama is likely to win Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada right now, while having more trouble in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and New Hampshire.

But he COULD win them all, adding Missouri to the other states he won last time! And he has a shot at winning Arizona, Montana and Georgia, as well, with the growing Hispanic and Latino vote in those states! So he COULD win a total of 32 states and Washington DC in this upcoming election!

So Obama COULD win MORE electoral votes than last time, which has been the case for EVERY two term President since Woodrow Wilson failed to do that in 1916, after winning his first term a century ago in 1912.!

Just for the record, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush are the Presidents who won a bigger second term electoral vote than their first term!

So, readers, stop obsessing and worrying, if you are a supporter of Barack Obama, and to those who are Mitt Romney supporters, stop being delusional and believing that your candidate will be the 45th President, because the 44th President of the United States is coming back: FOUR MORE YEARS FOR 44!

The Electoral College Reality In 2012–Eleven States Can Win The Presidency Theoretically

Ronald 1 Comment

As a result of changes in the Electoral College, due to population growth, in theory eleven states, if won by one candidate for the Presidency, can determine the election, no matter what the popular vote totals.

The eleven largest states add up to exactly the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House lease for the next four years.

In order, these states are:

California 55
Texas 38
New York 29
Florida 29
Pennsylvania 20
Illinois 20
Ohio 18
Michigan 16
Georgia 16
North Carolina 15
New Jersey 14

Therefore, 3 Northeastern states, 3 Midwestern states, 4 Southern states, and one Western state make up enough electoral votes to determine the winner.

Of course, no one can expect in this or any election that either candidate will win ALL of these states, but at this point a year before the election, only Texas seems out of reach for Barack Obama.

The states that seem certain for him would include: California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey.

The states that he won in 2008 that are “battleground” states in 2012 are Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and North Carolina.

Georgia along with Texas went to John McCain in 2008, but Georgia, with its growing Hispanic population, could go to Obama in a close race, although Texas still seems a few elections away before the Hispanic vote can tip the state “blue”

Of course, other states NOT in the top eleven will be important, including Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Indiana (11), Missouri (10), and Washington (12), all of which Obama won in 2008, except for the very close election in Missouri.

So out of all the states mentioned above, Obama ONLY lost Texas, Georgia, and Missouri (closely).

So Obama ONLY lost three of the top 17 states, with a 2012 total of 64 electoral votes, in 2008

If Obama wins all of the states he has won before, he would have a total of 272 electoral votes, and this does NOT include states such as Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, and Hawaii, all of which he won in 2008!

Any way one looks at it, Barack Obama has a great electoral vote advantage for 2012, one year before the election, and it is hard to imagine him losing enough states to a divided, confused Republican Party that has no strong, knowledgeable, principled leader found in any one person running for the nomination!