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Tough Election Races In 2024 For Democrats In US Senate

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The US Senate races for 2024 are likely to be tough times for Democrats, who have to defend 23 seats, while Republicans have to defend only 10 seats.

Four Democratic seats–in Maryland, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia—are greatly endangered, and with only a 51-49 majority in the US Senate, including three Independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Angus King of Maine, and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona), who ally with the Democrats, but Sinema’s seat also in play if she decides to run again as an Independent after breaking her ties with the Democrats, as it would create a three way race in that state.

Only three Republican seats out of 10 are in some danger, but likely to remain Republican—Florida with Rick Scott, Missouri with Josh Hawley, and Texas with Ted Cruz.

So while it seems highly likely that the House of Representatives will switch from Republican control to Democratic control, with 17 Republican controlled seats being Joe Biden districts won in 2020, it is highly likely that we will still see divided Congressional government with a possible Republican controlled Senate, and continued gridlock and stalemate operating in the legislative branch of government in 2025-2026!

Kyrsten Sinema Becomes Independent, 11th Since The 17th Amendment Passage In 1913!

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Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona announced today that she is becoming an Independent, making for three Independents, all of whom will still caucus with the Democratic Party.

The other two Senators are Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, who have been Independents in the Senate for 16 years and 10 years respectively.

Altogether, Sinema becomes the 11th US Senator since the passage of the 17th Amendment in 1913, calling for popular vote for the Senate, to become an Independent for a substantial period of time.

Sinema is unreliable in her vote, with an early progressive background two decades ago, but much more conservative once she came to the House of Representatives in 2013, and the US Senate in 2019.

But on most matters, the Democrats are in a better position with 51 Senators including three Independents than the present 50 Senators and two Independents.

It is clear that the Arizona Senate race in 2024 will be a three way race, of Independent Sinema, Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego (who was planning to challenge her for the nomination), and a Republican opponent.

So Sinema could keep her Senate seat theoretically with less than a majority of the vote in a three way contest!