Brian Schweitzer

Governors And The Presidential Election Of 2016

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It has often been pointed out that more Governors have been elected President over the course of American history than Senators.

From 1900 on, the following Presidents were earlier Governors of their states—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

The argument is that being a Governor prepares one better for the Presidency than serving in the national government in Washington, DC.

Whether this is true or not, the argument now is that the national government, and particularly the Congress, is so engaged in stalemate and gridlock, that the best choice in the Presidential Election of 2016 would be to go once again for a Governor or former Governor, as occurred four times of the past six Presidents, and seven of the past ten national elections.

So if that is the case, what is the market among Governors?

First, the Democratic side:

Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Mark Warner of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Jerry Brown of California
Howard Dean of Vermont
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Dannel Malloy of Connecticut

Now the Republican side

Chris Christie of New Jersey
Jeb Bush of Florida
Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Mike Pence of Indiana
Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Rick Scott of Florida

So, at least in theory, nine former or sitting Democratic Governors and twelve former or sitting Republican Governors are potential Presidential nominees.

Having said that, it is clear that some of these two groups are highly unlikely to be a candidate, or to have any realistic chance to be the nominee, including for the Democrats: Brown, Dean, Malloy, and Patrick, and for the Republicans: Scott, Martinez, Sandoval, Pence, Haley, and sadly (because he would be the best choice for the GOP long term), Huntsman.

For the Democrats, O’Malley and Cuomo and Warner (who has also served in the Senate), would be the best choices, were it not for the “800 pound gorilla” of Hillary Clinton and the slightly smaller version of Joe Biden. Were it not for them, these three listed Democrats would be a great term to compete for the nomination. Hickenlooper is also a good candidate, but would not be considered as likely to have a good chance, and Schweitzer might very well run, based on recent comments and activities, but the odds for him, especially against Clinton and Biden as things now stand, are extremely high of failure, and even of being mostly ignored by political pundits.

For the Republicans, Christie and Bush would be the most likely to have a real opportunity for the Presidency, but with the Tea Party Movement, neither is very popular, to say the least. Walker might be a better bet on that score, with Jindal seeming less attractive as time goes by, and Perry a real long shot based on his past performances. The “dark horse” to watch would be Kasich, who had a long career on Capitol Hill and knows how Washington works, and despite his mixed record in so many areas, is personally appealing, unlike any of those listed In this paragraph, in many ways the most appealing personally other than Huntsman.

If one had to bet which of each list would have the best chance, all things being equal, one would say O’Malley for the Democrats and Kasich for the Republicans, but the odds are that it will be someone from Capitol Hill–Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden for the Democrats, and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan for the Republicans, with the Democrats having the clear edge in the Electoral College, because of the support of the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast, and the likelihood of strong support in the upper Midwest and Illinois and Iowa, along with Virginia, an unmatchable scenario for the Republicans, as we look at the political situation as 2013 ends, but always subject to changing times that are unpredictable.

“Wild Cards” To The Extreme: Jerry Brown And Howard Dean Presidential Candidacies?

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We are entering 2014 in ten days, and yet, we are going back to the past, the extreme past, in fact, when we learn that California Governor Jerry Brown and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean are considering running for President in 2016.

Jerry Brown is not just a “wild card”, but also he is the “wildest card” of all, having run for President three times in the past 40 years, and being age 78 in 2016. Brown was Governor of California for two terms from 1975-1983, and after being Attorney General and Oakland Mayor, came back as Governor in 2011, making him the youngest and oldest Governor in California history.

Brown ran in 1976 against Jimmy Carter in the primaries and caucuses, and then challenged the reelection campaign of Carter, along with Ted Kennedy, in 1980. Then, he ran in the 1992 campaign against the ultimate winner, Bill Clinton, and bad blood was spilled between the two men. Now, if Brown ran, he would be challenging Hillary Clinton, stirring up again the bad blood that developed 22 years ago.

Brown has always been a gadfly, an annoyance, and both Southern Democratic Presidents elected in the past 40 years saw him as an annoying “mosquito”, as he was seen as weird and flaky by many, and is still seen as that in his old age by many observers.

Howard Dean was Governor of Vermont from 1991-2003, and was the frontrunner for awhile in the 2004 Presidential campaign, but collapsed quickly and made a fool of himself by his shrieks after the Iowa Caucuses, and John Kerry went on to become the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2004, losing to George W. Bush. Dean has been a commentator on public affairs, and a left wing critic of Barack Obama, but at age 68 in 2016, could be part of the race again, although the odds are heavy that he will not get very far in his challenge to Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden and any other Democrats who might decide to run, including former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, who has the virtue of being a “new face” in the race, and a lot younger than either Brown or Dean.

Brown particularly, and even Dean, could be seen as being almost like Harold Stassen was in the Republican Party, politicians who have had their moment in the sun, but fail to realize that the time has passed on them, and that we are not about to nominate a 78 year old “has been”, or even a 68 year old “wannabe”!

The Democratic Presidential Race Has Begun With Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer Comments!

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Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer has fired the first shots of the Democratic Presidential race, making us realize that the concept that, somehow, Hillary Clinton would win the nomination without challenge, and by default, is a dream that is not going to happen.

Schweitzer, who served two successful terms as Governor of the fourth largest state in land area, but eighth smallest in population, gained a reputation as a western populist, and has been critical of “corporatists”, which in his mind include Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, who are too cozy with Wall Street, and have not promoted the idea of pursuing indictment of Wall Street leaders for the Great Recession of 2008.

This is one issue on which many liberals and progressives have had trouble with President Obama, who relied on Larry Summers, Timothy Geithner and other icons of Wall Street, in making his economic policies.

So the left of the Democratic Party, including Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, and Schweitzer, among others, have been critical, and while Warren has said she is not running for President, and Sanders says only that he is considering it, Schweitzer has been out front in criticism on economic matters.

Additionally, Schweitzer has thrown a shot across the bow at Hillary Clinton and other US Senators who supported the Iraq War intervention, which he made clear he thought was a major mistake.

So without formally announcing, Schweitzer has hinted strongly that he will enter the race, if nothing else than for the reason that, even assuming Hillary has the edge and might be the nominee of the Democratic Party, that competition is good, and that it would make Clinton a better candidate, than one who is treated with kid gloves and is not ready to fight for the nomination and the Presidency in full combat gear.

Right now, however, the odds that Schweitzer, or anyone else, other than maybe Vice President Joe Biden, can stop Hillary Clinton from being the nominee of the Democratic Party, is highly speculative, but it makes the upcoming primaries and caucuses two years from now a lot more interesting and exciting than it might have been.

So, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, welcome to the fray!

Des Moines Register Poll On Presidential Race Of 2016

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The Des Moines Register, the leading newspaper in Iowa, has started to poll on who is favored in the Iowa Caucuses, the first vote of a presidential election year, always held in January, which can catapult a candidate all the way to the Presidency, as it did for Barack Obama on January 3, 2008.

Of course, polling this early is no real indicator of what will happen in two years, and in fact, being an early leader is a hex, and usually means that someone else will end up winning the Iowa Caucuses and have the edge to be the Presidential nominee of a political party.

But, if for nothing other than political discussion and debate, the poll shows Hillary Clinton in the lead, with only Joe Biden being competitive with her in any fashion. The other names listed, really “dark horses”, are Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley and, surprising to some, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, both of whom have shown interest in running, with Schweitzer being much more open about it.

On the Republican side, five have a positive rating of more than 50 percent, including in order, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan (VP running mate of Mitt Romney in 2012), former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (now a Fox News talk show host), Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and tied for fifth, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Under 50 percent are Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

It is interesting that the front runners are people who have lost their last race, while the also rans are newer people, many of whom have an extremist image, although really, all of the ten listed are extremists on the right, with the exception of Christie and Bush.

And Hillary Clinton has enough support for now that she would seemingly have an edge over any and all Republicans, and remember that Barack Obama carried Iowa twice in a state that, despite its strong right wing evangelical image, votes Democratic for President in recent elections, and is likely to do the same in 2016, whether it is Hillary or Joe Biden or some newer candidate for the Democrats.

The Field Is Opening For Hillary Clinton, As Other Democrats Seem To Step Aside

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It seems now more than ever that the Democratic Party is stepping aside for Hillary Clinton to be its nominee.

It may be that it simply seems like a “fait accompli”, an inevitable situation that makes possible rivals unwilling to enter the field, hesitant to challenge her.

The point is that Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo have made it clear that they are not in the field, unwilling to promote any action that indicates a challenge to the giant shadow of the former Secretary of State, Senator, and First Lady.

No discussion is going on for anyone else, other than possibly Joe Biden and former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, and it is really possible at the end that we will have the first uncontested nomination ever seen in modern American history, almost as if Hillary Clinton is President running unopposed for a second term in the White House, rather than as an outsider seeking the office of the Presidency.

Since Hillary resided in the White House for eight years, it is a scenario unseen in American history, and would strengthen her as the Republican Party, with its nightmarish group of candidates, fights it out on the far right, alienating the great center of the American population.

Speculation Seriously Begins On 2016 Presidential Competition

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Eight weeks away from the Presidential Election of 2012, but with the obvious trend toward Barack Obama emerging, political pundits are starting to speculate on who might compete for the Democratic and Republican Presidential nominations in 2016, when if Barack Obama is reelected in 2012, we will be certain to have a new President.

The field of potential nominees is long in both parties. Among those being discussed are the following:

Democrats

Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from New York
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo
Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley
Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick
Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar
Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill
Virginia Senator Mark Warner
Newark New Jersey Mayor Cory Booker
Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren

Republicans

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
Florida Senator Marco Rubio
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul
Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley
Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker
New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham
South Dakota Senator John Thune

So there are, theoretically, 12 Democrats and 14 Republicans who can be seen now as possible competitors for the Presidential nominations, but of course, some of these conceivable candidacies are based on election results yet to occur, including whether Senators Claire McCaskill, Scott Brown, and Lindsay Graham are reelected, the first two this year, and Graham in 2014; whether Cory Booker runs for New Jersey Governor and defeats Chris Christie, with the result eliminating one of those two candidacies; whether Elizabeth Warren can defeat Scott Brown, which would eliminate one or the other of those two candidacies; and whether the “old timers”—Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Jeb Bush—decide to run or stay out of the race, leaving the battle for the nominations to the “new generation” of leadership that is emerging in both political parties.

As of now, there is plenty of diversity in the potential race, with the following statistics:

7 women in the race–Hillary Clinton, Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Claire McCaskill, Elizabeth Warren for the Democrats, and Nikki Haley and Kelly Ayotte for the Republicans.
2 African Americans in the race—Deval Patrick and Cory Booker for the Democrats.
1 Hispanic-Latino in the race—Marco Rubio for the Republicans.
2 Asian Americans in the race (both of India heritage)—Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley for the Republicans.

On the Democratic side, there are three potential candidates from New York—Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand; one from New Jersey (Cory Booker); one from Delaware (Joe Biden); one from Maryland (Martin O’Malley); two from Massachusetts (Deval Patrick and Elizabeth Warren)–a total of eight of the 12 potential candidates from the Northeast, with one from the South (Mark Warner of Virginia); two from the Midwest (Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Claire McCaskill of Missouri); and one from the West (Brian Schweitzer of Montana).

On the Republican side, there are four potential candidates from the Northeast—Chris Christie of New Jersey, Scott Brown of Massachusetts, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, and Rick Santorum from Pennsylvania; seven from the South and border states—Bob McDonnell of Virginia, Nikki Haley and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio of Florida, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, and Rand Paul of Kentucky; and three from the Midwest—Paul Ryan and Scott Walker of Wisconsin and John Thune of South Dakota.

Additionally, there are many Catholics running, startling when one considers that this nation has only had one Catholic President (John F. Kennedy), and one Catholic Vice President (Joe Biden).

Also, the Democrats have four Governors, one Mayor, and seven former or sitting or potential Senators on their list; while the Republicans have six Governors or former Governors, seven Senators, and one Congressman on their list.

Speculation starting already makes the 2016 Presidential race seem ever closer even though it will not begin in earnest until mid to late 2014, and particularly so after the midterm elections of 2014!

Here We Go Again: Exxon-Mobil Oil Spill In Yellowstone River In Montana’s Pristine Wilderness!

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It is hard to believe, but Exxon-Mobil, the most profitable corporation in America and the world at large, has committed an oil spill of at least 1,000 barrels of oil in the pristine wilderness of the Yellowstone River in Montana!

Already, there are indications that the corporation is reacting slowly, and with old technology, to the job of limiting the environmental damage!

But Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer, one of the leading Democratic governors with ambitions to move beyond the Governorship in the future, has indicated he will have his hands on the throats of Exxon Mobil management until the cleanup is resolved to the satisfaction of the state of Montana and its citizens! However, he still seems willing, at the same time, to support a project of a pipeline of Trans Canada Corporation, which supposedly could not have the same type of tragedy occur, according to that company’s executives! It makes one wonder whether Schweitzer can be believed in his sincerity on this issue with Exxon Mobil!

Hopefully, this is not just rhetoric, and Exxon Mobil will be expected to restore the environment as much as possible, at a total cost to them, and not to the state’s citizens! But many will have doubts about the Trans Canada corporation plans!

This just reminds us again of the reality that this nation MUST find a way to get off oil dependency for the long term environmental, energy and economic future of America in the 21st century!