Congressional Elections Of 2012

Final House Of Representatives Division: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats—A 15 Seat Gain By Democrats

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This author’s prediction on the House of Representatives elections is much more difficult, since trying to follow the race in 435 Congressional districts is overwhelming.

But it seems clear that the Republican Party will keep control, as with the gain of the Governorship and state legislative control in many states in 2010, the Republicans had the edge in reapportionment of district lines in the House.

Having said that, the discontent with the Tea Party Movement control of the GOP growing, it seems likely that the Democrats will gain seats, about 15, and make the next House competition in 2014 give them the opportunity for takeover.

Needing a minimum of 25 seats this time, the Democrats will gain, maybe, 60 percent of that, with 15, putting them within reach to gain control with a 10 seat gain two years from now.

The real battle for now will be whether Speaker John Boehner stays, or Eric Cantor mounts a “coup”, and whether Nancy Pelosi remains Minority Leader, or loses it to Minority Whip Steny Hoyer!

Final US Senate Projections: Democrats Gain One Seat, Should Have A Margin Of 54-46

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This author has stated in the past couple of weeks that the US Senate would stay Democratic, and that seems more certain now than ever.

With any gain by Mitt Romney in polls stopped by Hurricane Sandy and the working of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with President Barack Obama, it seems likely that the Democrats will win what was predicted before, a one seat gain. In some states, the popularity of the Democratic Senate candidate might actually carry Obama over the top, rather than the other way around.

So here are my final projections:

The Republicans have ten seats up for election, and will keep six–but lose in Arizona, with Democrat Richard Carmona defeating Republican Jeff Flake; in Indiana, with Democrat Joe Donnelly defeating Republican Richard Mourdock; in Maine, with Independent Angus King defeating his two opponents in the major parties; and in Massachusetts, where Democrat Elizabeth Warren will defeat Scott Brown.

The Democrats have 23 seats up for reelection, and should keep eleven without any trouble, leaving 12 up for play, and are likely to win five others that are in contention—Bill Nelson in Florida; Debbie Stebanow in Michigan; Claire McCaskill in Missouri; Jon Tester in Montana; and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

That leaves seven seats which will definitely have a new Senator–and Virginia should see Democrat Tim Kaine defeat Republican George Allen; Democrat Chris Murphy win over Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut; Democrat Tammy Baldwin defeat Republican Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin; and Democrat Mazie Hirono defeat Republican Linda Lingle in Hawaii.

However, three other Democratic seats will probably be lost, regrettably—including Democrat Bob Kerrey losing to Republican Deb Fischer, a Tea Party favorite in Nebraska; Democrat Martin Heinrich losing to Republican Heather Wilson in New Mexico; and Democrat Heidi Heitkamp losing to Republican Rick Berg in North Dakota.

So this all adds up to four seats taken from the Republicans, but three seats taken from the Democrats, so that adds up to a Senate of:

54 Democrats (including Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine)
46 Republicans

So therefore a ONE SEAT gain by the Democrats!

Democratic Senate Candidates: What Are The Odds For The Senate In 2013-2014?

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Presently, the Democratic Party has 51 seats in the Senate, plus two Independents (Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont), who caucus with them.

What are the odds of the Democrats keeping 53 seats, but at least having a majority of 51 without the Vice President casting the tie vote, and possibly gaining one or two seats?

The odds seem excellent at least to keep control and possibly gain a seat or two, based on recent polling.

At the optimum, IF every one of the contested five Republican seats were to be won, and every Democratic seat was retained, the Democrats could control 58 seats, but that is not, realistically, going to happen.

But a possible gain of one or two seats is possible, when considering all of the contested races.

If, as stated in an earlier entry, the Democrats gain three of the five contested seats of Republicans, most likely in Arizona, Maine and Massachusetts, but lose in Indiana and Nevada, they could have 56 seats, but not all Democratic contentious races are seen as likely to be won.

Those Democrats in races seen as competitive but likely to win include:

Florida—Senator Bill Nelson against Republican Congressman Connie Mack IV.

Michigan—Senator Debbie Stabenow against former Republican Congressman Peter Hoekstra

Missouri—Senator Claire McCaskill against Republican Congressman Todd Akin

Montana–Senator Jon Tester against Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg

Ohio—Senator Sherrod Brown against Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel

Eleven other seats also seem safe, but there are seven highly contested seats that are more problematical.

Connecticut—Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy against Republican Linda McMahon, the owner of the World Wrestling Entertainment organization, who ran against Richard Blumenthal in 2010 and lost, but now is seen as a slight favorite, taking away a Democratic seat if that occurs.

Hawaii—Democratic Congresswoman Mazie Hirono against former Republican Governor Linda Lingle, a race of a Japanese American vs a Jewish American, with Hirono slightly favored, keeping the seat Democratic.

Nebraska—Former Democratic Governor and Senator and Presidential contender Bob Kerrey, against Republican state legislator Debbie Fischer, a Tea Party favorite, with Fischer favored, although Kerrey is a major figure of the past now returning to Nebraska, but if Fischer wins, the seat switches parties from retiring Ben Nelson.

New Mexico—Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich against former Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson, with Heinrich a slight favorite to keep the seat Democratic.

North Dakota—Past state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp against Republican Congressman Rick Berg, with Heitkamp running ahead and if winning, would keep the seat Democratic.

Virginia—former Governor Tim Kaine running against former Republican Governor George Allen, with Kaine ahead and expected to keep the seat Democratic.

Wisconsin—Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, an openly lesbian member of the House, against former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson, with Baldwin running ahead and would keep the seat Democratic.

Best guess is that Hawaii, New Mexico, North Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin will stay Democratic, but Connecticut and Nebraska might switch to the Republicans.

So IF everything works out as projected by the author in the earlier entry on the Republican held seats, it means that seats would remain in the same party’s hands, EXCEPT:

Connecticut and Nebraska would go Republican from Democratic.

Arizona, Maine and Massachusetts would go Democratic from Republican.

So the end result would be a Senate of:

54 Democrats, including Independents Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine.

46 Republicans

Meaning: a ONE seat gain for the Democrats!

So out of the 23 seats that were Democratic or Independent, 21 would remain Democratic.

Out of the 10 seats that were Republican, 7 would remain Republican.

So we have a slightly greater Democratic Senate, if this all works out, and we shall see how accurate this projection is when the elections take place 17 days from now!

Five Republican Senate Seats In Danger Of Being Won By Democrats In 2012

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The usual political line is that the Democrats are in danger of losing control of the Senate, with 23 Democratic or Independent seats up for election in 2012, as compared to only 10 Republican seats.

But actually, five of the ten GOP Senate seats are in play, with Republicans on the defensive!

This includes:

Maine—where retiring Senator Olympia Snowe seems likely to be replaced by Independent Angus King, former Governor of the state, thought to be likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins, based on greater agreement with Democratic principles.

Massachusetts—where Senator Scott Brown, who replaced Ted Kennedy in 2010, is behind in many polls to consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren, in a state so strongly Democratic that Brown’s victory in 2010 was seen as an outlier.

Indiana—where retiring Senator Richard Lugar may be replaced by Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly , because the GOP nominee, Richard Mourdock, has been labeled a Tea Party extremist, unwilling to work across the aisle with Democrats.

Nevada—where appointed Senator Dean Heller is having a rough race against long term Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley.

Arizona—where Senator Jon Kyl is retiring, but the Republican nominee, Jeff Flake, is facing a surprisingly tough battle against Democrat Richard Carmona. former Surgeon General of the United States. Carmona has a distinguished law enforcement and medical career, and is seen as having a really good chance to replace Kyl, and being Hispanic (Puerto Rican) in Arizona is certainly a positive, as well as his biography.

If one had to put betting money on these five races, it would be a good bet that Maine, Massachusetts, and Arizona will go Democratic in Senate races, with Indiana and Nevada tougher races.

That would mean a three seat gain for the Democrats, making it much tougher for Republicans to become a majority, as then they would need at least six to seven Democratic held seats out of 12 seats seen as in play, with 11 others of the total 23 seats seen as NOT in play!

An analysis of Democratic seats in contention will follow in the coming days!

Pew Poll Shows Massive Swing To Romney: Is The Election Lost For Obama?

Ronald 4 Comments

The Pew Research Poll that came out yesterday is an alarming reminder that the Presidential Election Of 2012 is far from over, as Mitt Romney gained massively in many ways, and at least in this poll, is now ahead by 4 points over Barack Obama.

Is it time to panic? No, but it is a sign that Joe Biden MUST do well in the upcoming Vice Presidential debate against Paul Ryan on Thursday, and Obama MUST perform much better than his lackadaisical effort in the first Presidential debate last week, in the remaining two Presidential debates next week and the week after!.

Additionally, more effort must be made to demonstrate that Mitt Romney is a chameleon, which he most certainly is, and that one cannot trust that his sudden move to the middle is the true Romney, after a year of working hard to be considered, as he self described himself, as a “severe” conservative!

The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Obama ahead by five points, 50-45, as he was before the debate, which became a tie for two days after the debate, but then went back to its old numbers after the favorable jobs report on Friday.

It is clear that the polls are very volatile, and may reflect doubts by voters about who should be President, but a good performance by both Biden and Obama, along with accelerated efforts to show Romney as the liar that he is, is still likely to lead to the same result, with a majority of “swing” states in Obama’s camp, with only the need to win two to three of them to win the Electoral College majority.

More worrisome is how the Obama decline for now could affect House and Senate races, and possibly give the Republicans control of both houses of Congress in the worst scenario.

For these next four weeks, all those who want to insure an Obama and Democratic victory must put in gargantuan efforts to bring about the desired result!

Patrick Murphy, Tammy Duckworth, Jim Graves, Wayne Powell, Rob Zerban, Christie Vilsack—Congressional Candidates Challenging Six Targeted Republicans In House Of Representatives!

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The Democratic Party not only hopes to keep Barack Obama in the Presidency, but also to elect a House of Representatives majority in November, and keep control of the US Senate.

Six Republicans are particularly being targeted for defeat in the House of Representatives, and were they all to be “retired”, the nation would be far better off!

So we have Patrick Murphy of Florida, challenging Allen West, who has called the Democrats Communists and Socialists and attacked Debbie Wasserman Schultz as not worthy of being treated as a lady!

So we have Joe Walsh of Illinois, challenged by Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq War veteran who lost both legs and one arm, and yet, Walsh thinks she does not deserve respect for her heroism; and he is also a bad parent, as he owes back child support payments over $125,000 to his former wife; and also constantly insults constituents at his public gatherings.

So we have Jim Graves challenging Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who ran for President in 2012, and has been a total terror as a Tea Party activist, calling Democrats “UnAmerican” in their loyalty, and is constantly coming across as nutty and loony in all her public utterances in the past six years in Congress. She is now seen as in serious trouble, and Graves seems to have a good chance to defeat her and remove her from public life!

So we have Wayne Powell challenging House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in his Virginia district, and the opportunity to retire Cantor, who has worked to undermine Speaker John Boehner and has cooperated with the Tea Party Movement, and shown he has no principles other than his own ambitions, makes him an excellent target! His arrogance is a good reason to remove him from Congress,and end his chances of moving higher in House leadership!

So we have Rob Zerban, challenging Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, and head of the House Budget Committee, in his Wisconsin district. The chance to defeat Ryan twice is just too good to pass up!

And we have Christie Vilsack, wife of the former Iowa Governor Tom VIlsack, who is now Secretary of Agriculture under President Obama, who is challenging long time Congressman Steve King, who has been one of the wackiest, craziest members of the Republican Congressional majority, serving for ten years in the House, and being one of the leaders of the Tea Party Movement over the past few years.

It would be a great day for sanity and reason if all, or some of these leading Republicans in the House of Representatives were kicked out of Congress! Giving campaign contributions to Murphy, Duckworth, Graves, Powell, Zerban, and Vilsack would be an excellent investment!

The Shame And Embarrassment Of Missouri: What Has Happened To The “Show Me” State?

Ronald 3 Comments

Missouri is smack in the middle of the United States, and is the ultimate swing state, having successfully gone with the winner of the Presidency in every election since 1900, except for 1956 (picking Adlai Stevenson over Dwight D. Eisenhower) and 2008 (picking John McCain over Barack Obama).

However, both times the final result was not known for days, and the victory was only by about 4,000 votes statewide.

Missouri is also the state historically of the following statesmen:

President Harry Truman (1945-1953), who had served in the Senate from 1935-1945 (Democrat)
Senator Thomas Hart Benton (1821-1851) (Democrat)
Senator Carl Schurz (1869-1875) (Republican)
Senator Stuart Symington (1953-1977) (Democrat)
Senator John Danforth (1977-1995) (Republican)
Senator Thomas Eagleton (1969-1987) (Democrat)

But now, Missouri is represented by Senator Roy Blunt, who used to be one of the top Republicans in the House of Representatives, and has become connected to the Blunt Amendment proposal, allowing any employer to prevent medical services based on religious grounds to any employee, a measure defeated by the Democratic majority in the US Senate. This is seen as anti women, interfering with their right to have birth control as part of medical plans.

And now, Congressman Todd Akin, controversial for his comment about “legitimate” rape, but refusing to withdraw as the GOP nominee for the Senate seat of Senator Claire McCaskill, is putting Missouri into the strange position of possibly having both Senators on record as against the rights of women to control their own reproductive lives, and trying to prevent abortion if a victim of rape or incest, or her life itself is threatened, an extremely right wing position.

The Republican Party and Mitt Romney had backed away from support of Akin, but now that he is remaining in the race for the Senate, the question is whether the Republican Party will change its mind and end up supporting Akin’s candidacy financially.

This McCaskill-Akin race could well be the decisive one that determines whether the Democrats keep control of the US Senate, or if the Republicans gain control.

It would seem that McCaskill should win, not only because of the controversy raised by Akin, but because she has done a good job in her one term in the Senate.

But Missouri is an odd state, with strong evangelical roots, and it would be a major shame and embarrassment for the state were they to end up having two right wing Senators at the same time.

The state would lose all respect of political observers who see moderation as the way to get things done in the Senate, and it would be a major step backwards for women’s rights!

So everyone should contribute to this pivotal race, as the key one which could determine the political future in so many ways!

And it is up to Missouri voters to show they are indeed the “Show Me” state, and will not tolerate having an extreme right winger in the Senate, joining Senator Roy Blunt!

The “Bandwagon” Effect Begins To Take Hold: Republicans On The Run, Including Paul Ryan!

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We are now seeing polls showing Barack Obama with a double digit lead in several states–Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida— and leads widening in Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire.

The “bandwagon” effect has begun to take effect, and Republicans are on the run, backing away ever more from Mitt Romney and his clearly failing campaign for President.

And all that Romney and his supporters can say is that the polls are wrong, and that the media are against them, even though even Fox News Channel polls show Obama’s lead widening.

So in other words, trust Romney, even though he constantly lies and deceives, and believe that he can win the election.

Gamblers are not taking bets that Romney will win, and instead the odds of Obama winning are about 80 percent, to 20 percent for Romney.

So Senate and House candidates are running scared, and many will likely go down in a massive Romney defeat six weeks from today!

And it turns out, even Paul Ryan, the Vice Presidential running mate, has come to recognition that he must save himself and his future, which looks a lot more cloudy now than it did before he accepted the Vice Presidential nomination.

Now, Ryan is in danger of losing his Congressional seat in an Obama landslide in Wisconsin, along with presiding over the US Senate and having illusions of being a future President!

So it has been reported by Politico that he is “going rogue”, as Sarah Palin did in 2008, doing what he wants at campaign rallies, saying what he wishes to say, ignoring direction from Romney aides, so as to make himself stand out and save his own skin.

One can sense that the relationship between Romney and Ryan is not what it was, and the body language shows it when they appear together, with Romney seemingly jealous that Ryan gains more applause than he does.

The possibility of a Democratic House and Senate seem more likely by the day, with the rapid implosion of Mitt Romney in evidence!

The US Senate Balance At Stake In 2012 Elections

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Presently, there are 51 Democrats, two Independents, and 47 Republicans In the US Senate.

There are 33 races for the Senate this year, with 23 being Democratic or Independent seats, and just 10 being Republican.

So the odds would seem to be in favor of the Republicans gaining seats, and possibly the majority of the Senate, if they can gain four seats, or three seats if Paul Ryan becomes Vice President.

Eleven Senators are retiring, 6 Democrats, one Independent (Joe Lieberman of Connecticut), and 4 Republicans.

Sixteen Democrats are seeking reelection, while six Republicans are seeking another term.

Many of these seats are seen as “safe”, with 11 Democrats out of the 16 seemingly safe, and four out of six Republicans considered to be assured reelection.

So the real struggle for the US Senate is for five seats held by Democrats, plus seven seats being vacated, for a total of 12 seats—plus three seats of retired Republicans, and two seats of Republicans running for reelection, for a total of 5 seats.

So 17 seats are up for grabs, and the maximum number of seats that could be gained by the Democrats would be five, making a possible total of 58, including two Independents, and for the Republicans, the maximum number of seats that could be gained is 12, for a possible total of 59 seats.

Will the Democrats have 58 seats, or the Republicans have 59 seats, in reality? The answer is NO, but it leaves the future of the Senate very much in play.

These races will be examined in the upcoming weeks until the election six weeks from now!

The Republicans’ “Winning Strategy” Becoming A “Losing” Strategy

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The Republican Party, both on the Presidential level with Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, and on the Congressional level, has had a three pronged strategy to win, but every indication is that their plans are going awry!

First, the Republicans have done everything to promote lies, deception, and distortion about the Barack Obama record in office.

Secondly, they have, openly, worked to deny the vote to millions of Americans through Voter ID laws, when there is no evidence of voter fraud.

Thirdly, they have spent wildly, particularly with the backing of billionaires, trying to “buy” the election.

None of this is working, as the Democrats are being very effective in getting the truth out about Obama, and showing the constant contradictions and lies of the Romney-Ryan campaign.

Secondly, many attempts at Voter ID laws and cutting of early voting have been rejected by state and federal court judges, who have not been controlled by the Republican political machines.

Thirdly, the power of money in the hands of a few is being outweighed by three million plus ordinary citizens giving small contributions, and the power of money has been proved wrong before, as in California in 2010 for the gubernatorial and US Senate races, where Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina spent tens of millions of dollars, and still lost!

So the Senate looks more likely to remain Democratic, and the House is seeing gains by the Democrats, and the chance of winning control growing.

And Mitt Romney is floundering, as Obama gains momentum!

While still 47 days away, the election is looking good for Democrats, as the truth gets out!