Congressional Elections Of 2014

The Internicine Struggle In The Republican Party For Its Future

As a result of the “Fiscal Cliff” vote on January 1, we have a Republican Party more split than ever, as all but five Republicans supported the legislation in the Senate, while only about one third of the House Republicans backed the legislation. It would not have passed without the support of almost all Democrats in the House.

Mitch McConnell backed it, John McCain backed it, Lindsey Graham backed it, but Rand Paul and Marco Rubio did not.

Speaker of the House John Boehner and House Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan backed the legislation, but House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy did not!

Presidential ambitions and the battle over proper strategy for the party’s future on the budget and so many other issues will lead to an internicine struggle over the next months and years leading up to the Congressional Elections of 2014, and the Presidential Election of 2016.

The Republican Party And Debt Default And Government Shutdown: Constant “Hostage Taking” Tactics!

Now that the “Fiscal Cliff” battle is over, and Barack Obama has won the battle on raising taxes on high incomes, a compromise at $450,000, instead of his original plan of $250,000, already the Republican Party, which lost the battle with only one third of them supporting it, but with Democratic backing and agreement to conduct a vote by Speaker John Boehner allowing it to pass, are creating a new crisis with reckless, irresponsible Republicans ready to fight on the issue of the raising of the debt limit, which must occur by the end of February. A new “Hostage Taking” situation is being created once again!

Among those Republicans who are arguing for a debt default and government shutdown are:

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Senator John Cornyn of Texas
Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky
Senator Mike Lee of Utah
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
Congressman Eric Cantor of Virginia, Majority Leader
Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, House Budget Commitee Chairman
Congressman Kevin McCarthy of California, House Majority Whip

Among those arguing against it, but not in public office are:

Former Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich
Just about any sane Republican who held office in the past and is holding his or her head in their hands in grief at what their party has become!

Speaker John Boehner has said that we cannot renege on the debt, and he knows that the government shutdown in 1995 by the House Republicans under Newt Gingrich during the Bill Clinton Administration was a disaster, and helped Clinton win a second term, and public opinion polls backed Clinton during the debacle.

But Boehner, having lost support of a dozen House Republicans in the Speakership vote on Wednesday, is weakened, and has a massive headache with Tea Party radicals and others who should know better than to play games with the fiscal health of the American economy!

Boehner has already said he will not speak privately with Obama, and has already insulted Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid with foul language, which he has not apologized for.

This creates a very awkward situation as the deadline nears iin late February, and all it will do is boost the ratings of the Democrats and President Obama, and further degrade the Republican Party future. Obviously, their defeat in November has NOT changed the mindset of the GOP, and that spells tragedy for their political futures!

A thought that comes to mind is that Vice President Joe Biden might again have to be called upon to negotiate with Boehner and others, since Obama and Reid seem to have no possibility of private discussions with House leaders or Senate leaders. Biden may, again, save the day, for the umpteenth time!

The point is that the Republican Party is fighting a losing battle for public opinion, and if there are bad economic implications, they will be the ones to suffer for it in 2014 and 2016!

Final House Of Representatives Division: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats—A 15 Seat Gain By Democrats

This author’s prediction on the House of Representatives elections is much more difficult, since trying to follow the race in 435 Congressional districts is overwhelming.

But it seems clear that the Republican Party will keep control, as with the gain of the Governorship and state legislative control in many states in 2010, the Republicans had the edge in reapportionment of district lines in the House.

Having said that, the discontent with the Tea Party Movement control of the GOP growing, it seems likely that the Democrats will gain seats, about 15, and make the next House competition in 2014 give them the opportunity for takeover.

Needing a minimum of 25 seats this time, the Democrats will gain, maybe, 60 percent of that, with 15, putting them within reach to gain control with a 10 seat gain two years from now.

The real battle for now will be whether Speaker John Boehner stays, or Eric Cantor mounts a “coup”, and whether Nancy Pelosi remains Minority Leader, or loses it to Minority Whip Steny Hoyer!