CoronaVirus Epidemic

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

Ronald 33 Comments

With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!


Economic Downturns And American Presidential Elections In History

Ronald 49 Comments

With the sudden, rapid decline in the economy, caused by the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the odds of Donald Trump winning reelection in November 2020 has dramatically declined!

Economic Downturns ALWAYS lead to defeat of Presidents running for reelection, as witness the following examples:

Martin Van Buren–Panic of 1837, loses in 1840.

James Buchanan–Panic of 1857–chose not to run for reelection, but Republican party opposition won in 1860 with Abraham Lincoln.

Ulysses S. Grant–Panic of 1873, Republican successor to Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, lost by massive margin of 250,000 votes in 1876 election, but won a disputed Electoral College vote over Democrat Samuel Tilden.

Benjamin Harrison–Panic of 1893 (evident in late 1892), loses in 1892.

Herbert Hoover–Great Depression (1929 and after), loses in 1932.

Jimmy Carter–Recession of 1980, loses in 1980.

George H W Bush–Recession of 1992, loses in 1992.

John McCain–Great Recession 2008-2009, successor Republican candidate for George W. Bush, loses in 2008.

The Month Of April: Wars, Deaths, And Now Pandemic!

Ronald 3 Comments

Here we are in the month of April, which historically, has been a very tragic month in so many ways!

April was the month that the American Revolution began in 1775.

April was the month that Civil War began and ended, in 1861 and 1865.

April was the month that the Spanish American War began in 1898.

April was the month that American engagement in World War I began in 1917.

April was the month of the death of Abraham Lincoln in 1865, Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945, Martin Luther King, Jr, in 1968, and Richard Nixon in 1994.

Other tragic events in April included the San Francisco Earthquake in 1906, the Armenian Genocide by Turkey in 1915, the Rwanda Genocide in 1994, and the Oklahoma City Bombing in 1995.

And now, the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the worst since the Spanish Flu of 1918, will lead to the death of an horrific number of people in America and around the world.

Estimates are that when the Pandemic is overcome in the future, at least a low figure of 100,00 to 240,000 American will have died. But the high figure is 2 to 2.5 million Americans, more than all our wars in American history!

Harry Truman, “The Buck Stops Here”, And Presidential Responsibility For Failures Historically

Ronald 7 Comments

President Harry Truman had a sign on his desk: “The Buck Stops Here!”, as Truman made it clear if a government policy went wrong, it was the responsibility of the President of the United States to take responsibility for the failure, and attempt to learn from it.

Since then, a number of Presidents have admitted failure, including John F. Kennedy in the Bay of Pigs fiasco involving Cuba in 1961; and Jimmy Carter in the attempted rescue of American hostages in Iran in 1980.

But Donald Trump refuses to take any responsibility on the CoronaVirus Crisis mishandling, instead placing the blame on the news media, liberals, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and others.

For that alone, Donald Trump should be forced out of office pronto as a total disaster!

His stupidity and that of Vice President Mike Pence, who rejects science, is further shown by fact that neither had been tested for the virus, despite contact with people who have it. Now, this morning, we get the news that finally Trump has had the test, and is awaiting results.

And at the press conference yesterday with business leaders, everyone went around shaking hands, something the American people are warned NOT to do!

It is as if the top government leaders and corporate leaders who met with them think they are untouchable, and they are sending the wrong message to the American people, and particularly to crazy Trump supporters who think he is God personified!

Donald Trump Proving Inability To Deal With CoronaVirus Crisis

Ronald 37 Comments

Donald Trump is proving his inability to deal with the CoronaVirus Crisis, as all he is doing is playing politics, attacking Democrats with his insults, and contradicting health experts.

He is more concerned with his reelection, than caring about Americans and their health.

He seems totally out of control, unable to deal with reality, and his mental instability is clear to anyone who has a brain.

Some worry about Joe Biden and his mental stability, but Biden is showing statesmanship by saying that the President should keep his mouth shut, and let the health experts take control and do what they know best, how to control a situation that requires calm and measured judgment.

Americans are seeing just how incompetent our President is, as if they did not know it already, if they had been paying attention to his day by day actions and utterances for the past three years!

CoronaVirus Crisis Will Bring Donald Trump Down!

Ronald 35 Comments

The ultimate job of any President of the United States is to promote the safety and security of the American people, and on that basis, Donald Trump is failing miserably in dealing with the growing CoronaVirus Crisis.

Clearly, this is a public health crisis of massive proportions, and all Americans would wish that Donald Trump was capable of handling a crisis that may stand out as one of the greatest tragedies in all of American history.

But Trump is playing politics, concerned more with his reelection, than giving full authority to medical and health experts, and this is proved by his appointment of Vice President Mike Pence, who is anti science and just prays a lot to God, to lead the effort to quell the crisis.

It seems clear that this crisis will not be handled in a proper manner, whatever that is, and that Donald Trump will pay the price in being defeated for reelection.

Not only is there likelihood of massive death totals, but also the economy is clearly going into a tailspin, and the next President will likely face depression conditions unseen since 2008 and the Great Recession.

This blogger and author hopes he is wrong, but this is clearly the most horrifying health crisis faced since the Spanish Flu epidemic of a century ago!