Cory Gardner

Final Projection On Congressional Elections Of 2020

With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.

The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.

Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.

The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.

The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:

Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally

Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner

Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins

Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue

Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines

North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis

Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst

Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall

South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham

Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.

Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!

Hope That At Least Four Republican Senators Will Delay A Vote To Replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg

This is a very depressing time, and Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell are adding to it by the outrageous rapid move to promote a Supreme Court nominee to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg so quickly.

With only six weeks until the election, and with the normal period before the process for a Supreme Court nominee being about 75 days, what is the hurry to do this?

In 2016, the Republicans refused to consider a Supreme Court nominee for an entire year, rather than allow Barack Obama to put Merrick Garland on the Supreme Court!

The argument was that in the year of a Presidential election, no replacement for the Court should be considered.

If the Court could do with eight members for a year, then they can do with only 8 members until January, when the next inauguration takes place.

No one can argue that if Donald Trump were to win a second term, of course, he could pick a replacement.

But if Joe Biden win the election, then the new President should make the choice for a lifetime appointment of about 30 years.

A hopeful sign is that two women Republican Senators—Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine—have stated that the elected President in November should make the appointment, and that they do not support a rapid replacement before the election or after if Joe Biden wins in November.

Collins has been very disappointing in supporting the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, and she is in deep trouble in her Senate reelection campaign in Maine.

Murkowski does not have to face voters until 2022, and in the past, she won reelection to her seat against both a Republican and a Democrat in 2010, so she is more to be trusted than Collins.

But there is also Mitt Romney, who one would think is principled enough based on his opposition to Donald Trump, that he could be a third vote.

Four votes are needed, however, to stop a nominee from being confirmed for now, and Senate President Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley of Iowa, has said in the past he is against a replacement in an election year, so maybe he will also oppose a quick action.

There is also speculations that Cory Gardner, in a tough race in Colorado, might wish to avoid voting on a nominee before the election.

There are also those Senators seen as more moderate conservatives, but none of them can be relied upon: Rob Portman of Ohio, and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania.

Of course, Mitch McConnell himself, and Lindsey Graham, both facing election in their states, had posed the same principle in 2016, but not now, so purely, both are hypocrites. One can hope that possibly their opponents will gain more funding and possibly defeat them, although the odds are long.

Then, there is Ted Cruz, a despicable piece of trash, who also said the same thing about election year appointments, but now is on a list of potential Supreme Court nominees, although Trump has said a woman will be selected next week!

All of the other Republicans running for reelection seem unlikely to show any principle, although Ben Sasse of Nebraska is one we could hope might do so, but seems unlikely to have the courage to take a stand.

So we may end up with a 6-3 Court, setting us back to the 19th century in so many ways, and if nothing else, it should encourage more than ever before for massive contributions to Democrats for the Senate and for Joe Biden nationally, as this nightmare of Donald Trump must come to an end in November!

Will Four Or More Republicans Call For Witnesses In Donald Trump Impeachment Trial?

With the Donald Trump Impeachment Trial to begin in earnest on Tuesday, January 21, the first full day of the last year of this Presidential term of office, the question arises whether at least four Republican Senators will buck their leader, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and call for witnesses to testify.

John Bolton, former National Security Adviser, is the key witness in mind, although there are others, including Mick Mulvaney (the Acting White House Chief of Staff), Attorney General William Barr, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Vice President Mike Pence, as well as lesser figures.

If even John Bolton gets to testify, it will be a victory for Democrats, but the question is whether there are Republican Senators who want to know the truth, or are just interested in backing the President, no matter what abuses of power he has engaged in.

The best estimate is that we will find the following Senators supporting testimony:

Susan Collins of Maine

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

Mitt Romney of Utah

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Rob Portman of Ohio

Cory Gardner of Colorado

If only three of the above support witnesses, it would be a 50-50 tie, and the belief is that Chief Justice John Roberts could rule in such a tie situation, and would support witnesses.

But this is such an unprecedented situation, so we are guessing at what will be the ultimate decision on this matter.

Republican Senators Who Do Not Support Lindsey Graham Resolution Condemning House Impeachment Inquiry

Mitt Romney of Utah

Susan Collins of Maine

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Mike Enzi of Wyoming

Cory Gardner of Colorado

Johnny Isakson of Georgia

This means that Lindsey Graham is not able to gain support from the entire Republican Senate caucus, and is a hint of the likelihood that such a resolution to condemn the House of Representatives Impeachment Inquiry will fail to gain a majority of the US Senate.

It could be that a vote for conviction in an impeachment trial might be 54-46, not enough to remove Donald Trump, but a major slap in the face, nevertheless to the 45th President.

And it could be more than seven Republican Senators could end up voting against Trump, although the likelihood of reaching the threshold of 20 Republicans joining with all 47 Democrats to remove Donald Trump is very much a long shot.

Four Presidential Candidates Who Should Run For Senate Instead

It is clear, with the announcement today officially that Montana Governor Steve Bullock is running for President, making for a total of 22 candidates, that there are simply too many, and that some of them need to give up the fight, and run instead for the US Senate, to bolster the chances of a Democratic take over in 2020.

Without the Senate, any Democratic President will face the impossibility of accomplishing his or her goals for the nation, both domestically and in foreign affairs.

So some friendly advice as follows:

Steve Bullock of Montana, run for the US Senate, and since you have been a popular Governor for two terms, spend your time on helping the Democrats gain the Senate majority and defeat Senator Steve Daines.

John Hickenlooper of Colorado, the same advice for you, run to defeat Cory Gardner, one of the most endangered Republicans.

Beto O’Rourke of Texas, you could really help make the Lone Star State turn “Blue” after your close race against Ted Cruz in 2018. Run to retire John Cornyn.

And Stacey Abrams, who is rumored to be thinking of announcing for President, instead you should run for Senator in Georgia, and defeat David Perdue.

Donald Trump Border Wall Oval Office Speech Accomplishes Nothing

Donald Trump is claiming a national emergency on the southern border with Mexico, even though there is no crisis of terrorists trying to cross the border, based on government statistics.

In fact, only SIX people were picked up at the border with Mexico in the first six months of 2018.

This “national emergency” is about Donald Trump wanting to please his 35 percent base of supporters on the building of a wall which is impractical, ineffective, and will cause a tremendous government expense in the tens of billions of dollars of taxpayer money, when Trump said Mexico would pay for the Wall.

Rightfully, Mexico has refused, so now Trump wants Americans to bear the burden of a wall, which in many areas, would not logistically be possible, in areas of desert, mountains, and waterways.

Rather, the answer is technology, drones, and more personnel on the boundary.

Meanwhile, government workers are being victimized by having no pay during the government shutdown, and many vendors at government sites are being put out of business, Meanwhile, native Americans and the poor are being denied food stamps and health care, and we will see a rise in deaths due to this government shutdown, soon to be the longest in American history, and totally unnecessary and outrageous.

It is time for the Republicans in the Senate to move to open up the government, as closing the government is a disaster that accomplishes nothing, and the only way the GOP has any chance to keep the Senate majority in 2020 is by demonstrating independence from the President, who likely will be gone before the year 2020 arrives.

Already, discontent with the stalemate has been voiced by Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, Cory Gardner of Colorado, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina.

Republican Skeptics On Ryan Health Care Plan: John Kasich, Rand Paul, Tom Cotton, Darrell Issa, And Many Others

The Republican Party has an increasing number of skeptics about the Paul Ryan alternative bill to ObamaCare, which has now been scored on its effect on the budget by the Congressional Budget Office, and it is a total disaster.

All of the following are unhappy with the Affordable Care Act, or ObamaCare, as it is, but warn against the House sponsored plan:

Governor John Kasich of Ohio
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky
Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas
Congressman Darrell Issa of California
Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
Senator Rob Portman of Ohio
Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado
Senator Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia
Senator Susan Collins of Maine
Senator Dean Heller

But also there are the right wing extremists, the Freedom Caucus House Republicans who oppose the Ryan bill, as do the following groups:

Freedom Works
Club For Growth
Heritage Action

And the American Medical Association, the American Hospital Association, and the American Association Of Retired Persons, and many other groups are also totally against the legislation.

So in the midst of control of both Houses and the White House, the Republican Party is in a crisis as to how to appeal to their base, as they work to deny them health care–elderly, sick, disabled, and poor.

Republican “Firewall”, Added To Democratic Opposition In US Senate, Gives Some Hope To Control Trump Appointments And Initiatives

Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
Jeff Flake and John McCain of Arizona
Cory Gardner of Colorado
Marco Rubio of Florida
Rand Paul of Kentucky
Susan Collins of Maine
Ben Sasse of Nebraska
Dean Heller of Nevada
Rob Portman of Ohio
Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania
Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
Mike Lee of Utah
Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia

We must realize that Donald Trump is not really a Republican or a conservative, and is impossible to figure out what his agenda is, so that means that there will be a “firewall” of Republicans in the US Senate, who at least in some cases, can be added to Democratic opposition in the Senate, and give some hope that there will be control over Trump appointments and initiatives over the next few years.

Not all of the above list will cooperate and collaborate together on all issues, but they all seem to be likely to fight Trump on some issues, and if three or four work together with a united Democratic Party in the Senate, Trump will be unable to accomplish all his goals, and he is likely to bitterly denounce these Republicans, and cause, by his language, more stalemate and gridlock, and prevent the most grievous nominees and parts of his agenda.

The most likely to oppose Trump are the following: Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Jeff Flake, and Rob Portman in that order.

However, Ben Sasse and Mike Lee, as strong conservatives, are also likely to try to limit Trump Administration goals if they find them objectionable.

The others–Dan Sullivan, Cory Gardner, Dean Heller, Pat Toomey, Lamar Alexander, and Shelley Moore Capito–may, occasionally, join with the members of this group.

Remember that seven of this group—Murkowski, McCain, Rubio, Paul, Portman, Toomey, and Lee have a new six year term, so are not threatened by Trump as far as their Senate seat is concerned.

Only Flake and Heller face election contests in 2018, while the other seven –Sullivan, Gardner, Collins, Sasse, Graham, Alexander, and Capito face election in 2020.

So 16 Senators out of 52 Republicans, fully one third, could stand in the way of Donald Trump, and if he went too far in abuse of his powers, could, potentially, join in a possible move to promote impeachment, although even if all 48 Democrats joined in, would still fall short of the 67 needed to convict and remove him by three votes.