Electoral College

Final Projection On Presidential Election Of 2020

Ronald 2 Comments

On April 30, I did an early projection on the Presidential Election of 2020.

Six months later to the day, and after having gone through so much pain and suffering as a nation, with a President who is totally uncaring and incompetent, as well as corrupt and despicable in personality and policies for the past four years, I look forward to a massive landslide victory of Joe Biden. He is a very decent, compassionate man who can bring us together after the four year nightmare we have experienced.

My estimate is based on my knowledge and perception of what has been going on politically in this nation, and my historical perspective over a half century of teaching, writing, publishing and speaking.

The judgment of what will happen has been slightly changed, but not by much.

So let’s make it clear that I fully expect Joe Biden to win a massive landslide, with about 54-55 percent of the national popular vote to Donald Trump’s 43 percent, less than he gained in 2016.

The Electoral College will end up, I believe, as 413-125, and 30 states for Biden and 20 states for Trump.

One might be surprised that Trump would win 20 states and ONLY get 125 electoral votes, but that is so because none of the 20 states has a large population, with only Tennessee and Indiana having 11 electoral votes each, and four small rural states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Alaska) having a minimum 3 electoral votes each.

So Trump wins rural America, which is dying more every decade as young people leave for better opportunities, and that means these states, heavily consisting of poor people, white and minority, has no long range future, and will be further trivialized in future decades. Only Mormon Utah is growing rapidly in population, and only a few medium sized cities are in these states, including St Louis and Kansas City in Missouri; Nashville and Memphis in Tennessee,: New Orleans in Louisiana; Indianapolis in Indiana; and Salt Lake City in Utah. One can believe that over time, some of these 20 states will turn Blue and give up on the Republican Party, if they have any sense of the future, and this might happen over time with Missouri and Tennessee.

So my estimate is that Joe Biden easily wins the Electoral College, simply by winning the 20 Hillary Clinton states in 2016, and adding the three Midwestern states she lost by very small margins—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and also winning the 2nd Congressional District of Omaha, Nebraska, for a total of 279 electoral votes. That is all that is needed, but it seems highly likely that Joe Biden will also win the Southern states of North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, as well as win the Midwestern states of Ohio and Iowa, and add the Southwestern state of Arizona, adding up to 413 electoral votes from 30 states.

We will see how accurate this blogger and author is, but a reminder that in 2008, I was one electoral vote off, thinking Barack Obama would win Missouri (10 electoral votes) and lose Indiana (11 electoral votes), and just the opposite happened.

And in 2012, this author and blogger was totally accurate on the Electoral College, so I hope I am proved correct in 2020.

But the most important point is that IF Biden just wins 23 states, he will become the 46th President of the United States!

The Corruption Of The Supreme Court, With Five Appointees By Presidents Who Lost The Popular Vote!

Ronald 1 Comment

With the likelihood that Amy Coney Barrett will be successfully confirmed to be the replacement of Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg on the Supreme Court, we are about to have a Court with five appointees by Presidents who lost the national popular vote, but still won the Electoral College.

George W. Bush lost the national popular vote to Vice President Al Gore in 2000 by a 540,000 margin, but was able to select Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Samuel Alito in 2005 and 2006.

And now Donald Trump, who lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016, by a 2.85 million margin, has been able to select Associate Justices Neil Gorsuch in 2017, Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, and now Amy Comey Barrett in 2020.

And even more infuriating is that three of these five appointees helped the George W. Bush campaign in the Bush V Gore Supreme Court case, assisting him winning the case in a majority Republican selected Court in December 2000–specifically, John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Comey Barrett!

And the right wing Federalist Society, which has been on a 40 year campaign to make the federal court system move to the extreme right on such issues as health care, abortion, gay marriage, gun rights, so called freedom of religion, deregulation of the economy and the environment, suppression of voting rights and labor rights, has fully succeeded in its campaign to undermine American democracy and a sense of humanity!

So when one complains from the right side of the political spectrum at the “horror” of Democrats “packing the Court” if they were to add seats to the Supreme Court, one has to say the level of hypocrisy is enormous, when that has been the commitment for four decades of the Right in American politics.

And who can say that if the Republicans were to win control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency, that they would not be willing to promote “packing of the Court’, so that they could add two to four more seats to the Supreme Court, and make the Court not just the 6-3 margin it will now be, but possibly 8-3 or 10-3, if two to four seats were to be added!

And one more point: Two of the six member Republican majority have had sexual misconduct hanging over their heads, although it has not affected their tenure on the Court, speaking specifically of Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh. So the ethical and moral standing of the Court has been damaged irrevocably!

But do the conservatives and the Federalist Society care about this? Not one iota!

Donald Trump On The Way To A Potential Worst Election Defeat Than Any Republican Since 1964

Ronald 20 Comments

Donald Trump, in the midst of the COVID 19 Pandemic, seems to be on the road to the worst election defeat for a Republican Presidential nominee since Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona in 1964, against President Lyndon B. Johnson.

Goldwater only won 6 states and 38.5 percent of the vote in 1964, and since then, only George H. W. Bush lost his reelection in a three way race in 1992 with lower percentage, 37.4 percent, but also 18 states won by Bush.

Trump has never won a majority of support in any legitimate public opinion poll since his inauguration, and remember he won the Electoral College in 2016 by small margins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

He has seen some of those who voted for him turning against him in recent months, with his horrid policies on the CoronaVirus Pandemic, so uncaring and lacking in empathy, sincerity, decency, and compassion, but now he and his supporters in the top level of government also facing the pandemic themselves.

So in a two way race as now, he may be in the camp of Goldwater, or possibly even worse, as Alfred Landon in 1936 against Franklin D. Roosevelt with only 36.5 percent of the vote!

Ohio, The Buckeye State, May Again Be Instructive On Presidential Election

Ronald 7 Comments

Ohio, the Buckeye State, may again be instructive on the Presidential Election of 2020, as it has been 45 out of 54 times in the past, and only twice on the losing side since 1900–1944 and 1960!

No Republican President has won the White House without winning Ohio.

Ohio is 34th largest of the 50 states in land area; 10th most densely populated; and seventh most populous; and it has been losing electoral votes steadily over the decades, as the Sun Belt states have grown larger in population.

But it still matters greatly, and recent polls indicate Joe Biden taking a lead in Ohio over Donald Trump.

As I wrote on this blog on September 15, 2018, Ohio historically has been the most predictable state in the Electoral College results, followed by Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico.

If Donald Trump cannot win Ohio, there is no path for him to win the Presidency for a second term in 2020. The public opinion polls as I write, indicate troubles for Trump also in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, so the Midwest heartland is not for him, as things stand now.

America Is In The Most Dangerous Constitutional Crisis In All Of Its History, More Than 1860 Or 1932!

Ronald 4 Comments

Shocking but true, America has just entered into its most dangerous constitutional crisis in all of its history, more than 1860 or 1932.

The Civil War has always been regarded as the most difficult moment constitutionally, as the Civil War was on the horizon, but Abraham Lincoln won the election, and was inaugurated peacefully on March 4, 1861.

The Great Depression was at its worse at the time of the election in 1932, but Franklin D. Roosevelt won the election, and was inaugurated peacefully on March 4, 1933.

Both Lincoln and FDR faced assassination threats, but both survived and became our greatest Presidents.

Other times, we have had contested or close elections, as in 1800, 1824, 1876, 1880, 1916, 1960, 2000, and 2016, but always there was a peaceful transition of government from one President to another, without rancor.

But now, yesterday, President Donald Trump indicated that he would not guarantee a peaceful transition of power, that the mail ballots should be thrown out, and his administration continue in office beyond January 20, 2021, and that an extra Supreme Court Justice might be enough to rule in Trump’s favor. Also, there are plans behind the scenes to have Presidential electors in many swing states be convinced to support Trump in the Electoral College, even if Trump is seen as losing the popular vote in many states.

This is alarming, and presages a constitutional crisis that would be worse than 1860 or 1932, and a move by Trump to destroy the Constitution and rule of law, and the establishment of an authoritarian Fascist oriented dictatorship!

It means we have a tense 40 days until the election, and a potentially tense 78 days to Inauguration Day, whereby Trump could declare martial law, or we could have both Trump and Biden coming to Inauguration Day as the perceived winner by their own camps, and how that would be handled.

Our system of government has always been based on the loser accepting defeat, not being a sore loser, and not threatening to provoke violence by his supporters, but Trump is already doing this at his no mask, no social distancing, rallies, an alarming development.

This is a moment of reckoning for all elected Republicans, that while they want to compete to win power, that they have to respect the Constitution and rule of law, and NOT support a renegade President, if the election results are clearly in favor of Joe Biden, as is expected.

We have to hope that Biden wins by a massive margin, as otherwise, we are in uncharted territory, and even if it is a massive victory, Trump might claim it is a stolen election, and throw it to the courts, and a newly appointed Associate Justice could be the decisive factor in deciding whether we retain our democracy.

The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, ironically, could be a major turning point in American history in a negative fashion way beyond the passing of this great woman!

We cannot allow that to occur!

Will Ohio Go Against The National Trend In 2020?

Ronald 8 Comments

The state of Ohio has long been seen as a crucial state, and no Republican has been elected President without winning Ohio, including Donald Trump in 2016.

So only Gerald Ford has been a Republican President and lost Ohio, when he ran for a full term against Jimmy Carter in 1976. Once we knew that Carter had won Ohio, it was clear Ford would not have a full term, after succeeding the resigned Richard Nixon in 1974.

When one looks at party history since the Republican Party was founded in 1854, we find only five elections in which the Republican candidate lost Ohio to a Democrat, as follows:

John C. Fremont 1856 lost to James Buchanan

James G. Blaine 1884 lost to Grover Cleveland

President Benjamin Harrison 1892 lost to former President Grover Cleveland

Thomas E. Dewey 1944 lost to President Franklin D. Roosevelt

Richard Nixon 1960 lost to John F. Kennedy

So only three Democratic Presidents have won the White House without winning Ohio–James Buchanan in 1856, Grover Cleveland in 1884, and John F. Kennedy in 1960, with Cleveland second time and FDR fourth time winning a return to the White House without winning Ohio.

Right now, polls show Donald Trump winning Ohio by 5 points instead of the 8 point lead he had over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

So if polls hold up, Joe Biden will be the fourth Democrat to become President without Ohio, only the sixth time in 166 years, and the first time since 1960.

Ohio has been steadily losing electoral votes, as the balance of population has moved South and West, and will likely lose one electoral vote in 2024 and 2028, going down from 18 to 17, so will have less impact politically in the future!

Reality: If Biden Wins Florida, He Only Needs To Win One More Trump State Of 2016!

Ronald 10 Comments

The odds of Donald Trump being able to pull out a win in November is very poor, particularly if Florida, third in electoral votes with 29, goes to Joe Biden.

The Democratic states of 2016 all seem solid for Joe Biden, although the Republicans are trying to win New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada and New Mexico, but the odds are very long against that occurring.

With Florida being won by Biden, all that the Democratic Presidential nominee needs to hit the 270 mark is win one of the following:

Pennsylvania 20 electoral votes

Michigan 16 electoral votes

Wisconsin 10 electoral votes

North Carolina 15 electoral votes

Arizona 11 electoral votes

Ohio 18 electoral votes

Georgia 16 electoral votes

Right now, in public opinion polls, Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all but the last two states, and one must remember that in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump only won by a combination of 78,000 votes combined in 2016!

Florida is prime territory for Democrats, with the growing Puerto Rican population, enhanced by the hurricane which hit that island in 2017, and by senior citizens notably turning against Donald Trump in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic. Since Trump did not win by very much in Florida in 2016, and with the enhanced Democratic campaign that will be mounted in Florida, the likelihood of Florida going Democratic, along with at least one of the above seven states is, seemingly, not all that difficult.

Also, Florida could end up trending “Blue” on Election Night, throwing the plot of Trump to declare victory that evening out of possibility.

It would be fitting and ironic that the state that Donald Trump has now made his official residence could put the nail in the coffin of Donald Trump staying on as President!

Donald Trump Declares His Fascist Desires To Delay Presidential Election, Rejected Unanimously By Congress And Scholars

Ronald 20 Comments

President Donald Trump is not hiding his dictatorial desires, having declared on Twitter yesterday his wish to delay or cancel the Presidential Election of 2020 until the legitimacy of the election can be insured.

That makes it very clear that Trump is a Fascist, trying to stay in office without accountability and responsibility for his multitude of crimes against his oath of office.

Trump was trying to take attention away from the escalation of the CoronaVirus Pandemic to all time highs in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California, and the growing number of cases erupting in the Midwest.

Trump is also trying to make us forget that the Gross Domestic Product dropped a shocking 33 percent in the second quarter of April, May and June 2020, the all time record since statistics were kept starting in 1947, after World War II. Five years of growth were wiped out all at once!

All this plus the illegal, unconstitutional sending of unidentified military forces to Portland, Seattle and threats to other Democratic run cities, over the fake threat to federal buildings conjured up by Trump. Who are the threats he suggests? Retired military veterans, housewives, and other decent Americans are taking a stand against racism and for freedom of assembly, while the unwanted and unconstitutional forces are provoking violence and detaining people, shoving them in cars, in a manner reminiscent of Nazi Storm Troopers!

For the first time, however, Republicans in Congress rebuked Trump on the idea of delaying or suspending the elections. This included Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, as well as many others in a party that until now has bowed down to every whim of Donald Trump!

Trump’s suggestion that the results of the election might take months or years is truly delusional, as he forgets that Inauguration Day is 78 days after Election Day, and that the Electoral College meets in December.

It took 36 days in 2000 to resolve the winner in that election, and even in 1876-1877, while it took four months to decide the winner, it occurred with two days to go until the inauguration on the then later date of March 4!

The reason why Trump is acting hysterically is his realization that he will be indicted by a New York grand jury, which cannot be stopped by a Presidential pardon, and will, most likely, go to federal prison, where he belongs, along with a a whole group of family members and many major figures in his administration.

It is only Donald Trump who thinks there will be a “rigged” election, as he well knows that his election in 2016 was “rigged” by Russian collusion, pointed out in the report of Special Counsel Robert Mueller in 2019, but covered up by Attorney General William Barr, who will also end up in prison as the worst, most corrupt Attorney General in American history!

Absentee and mail balloting will go forth in this upcoming election, and the issue of corruption is a “red herring”, and Americans will have the right in much of the nation to vote, and not endanger their lives in this pandemic to do so!

Many major conservative groups, such as the Federalist Society, denounced Trump for the suggestion of delaying the election, and said he was acting like a Fascist, and should resign.

So finally, Republicans and conservatives are rising up against Trump!

Joe Biden Should Seek To Win Strongly “Red” States, To Promote Democratic Strength, And Humiliate Donald Trump!

Ronald 3 Comments

There is a growing feeling of a Democratic “Tsunami” on the way on November 3, 2020, when the Presidential and Congressional Elections take place across the nation.

Indications are that Joe Biden is working hardest on convincing voters to support him in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three “swing” states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins.

If those three states switched from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, then the former Vice President would win the Electoral College.

But since there is no guarantee, it is important for Biden to work hard to win Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona as well, to allow for any slippage in the three states lost by Clinton by small numbers. So a lot of effort is going into winning those three states listed, as Biden is now comfortably ahead in all three, along with the other three.

If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona it will be a massive victory, which is almost certain to insure that the Senate would go Democratic by more than the three minimum victories needed. And the House of Representatives would add to the Democratic margin gained in the midterm elections of 2018.

But the argument is why not also go for states that seem long shots–Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa, all of which would make Joe Biden a landslide winner by far?

And even further, why not try to win Kansas and Montana?

So if things go well, the Democrats could have the most massive victory for the Presidency since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and could be a sign of a Democratic majority that would be long lasting!

The total humiliation of Donald Trump would be a wonderful event to witness!

From Election To Inauguration: Four Worrisome Times, And Now Again In 2020

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In American history, we have witnessed four times when the period from the election to the inauguration has been a worrisome time.

The first time was 1860-1861, when Abraham Lincoln was facing the secession of the South, and likely civil war, and even the danger of assassination threats before he took office.

The second time was 1876-1877, when the popular vote went to Samuel J. Tilden, but the electoral vote went to Rutherford B. Hayes, decided by a special Electoral Commission, which resulted in the closest electoral vote imaginable, a one vote margin of electors.

The third time was 1932-1933, when Franklin D. Roosevelt faced a recalcitrant Herbert Hoover, who refused to cooperate with the President-Elect as the Great Depression worsened.

The fourth time was 2000-2001, when the electoral vote was decided by the Supreme Court, awarding Florida to George W. Bush over Al Gore, by the second closest electoral vote, only five electoral vote margin.

And now, in 2020, we have to fear that Donald Trump will refuse to concede the election, and will fight it in every possible way, if the electoral vote is contested. And even if it is an easy victory for Joe Biden, Trump might create a constitutional crisis, and attempt to declare martial law and suspend the Constitution. He also might attempt to start a war with China or Iran, in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic.

So we have a lot to worry about as we move toward the Presidential Election of 2020!