Electoral College

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

Ronald 33 Comments

With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!


Major Changes In Electoral College Coming After Census Figures In 2020, And Reapportionment Of Seats In House Of Representatives In 2022 And After

Ronald 1 Comment

The Electoral College and Congressional Representation in the House of Representatives will change dramatically, after the Census of 2020 leads to seven states gaining electoral votes and Congressional seats, while ten states will lose electoral votes and Congressional seats starting in 2022 for the lower house of Congress, and for the Electoral College in 2024 and 2028.

The big winners will be Texas and Florida, gaining 3 and 2 seats and 3 and 2 electoral votes. Also gaining one seat and one electoral vote will be Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, Montana, and North Carolina.

The ten states that will lose one seat each and one electoral vote are:

California (first time ever)

New York

Pennsylvania

Illinois

Ohio

Michigan

Minnesota

Rhode Island

West Virginia

Alabama

Rhode Island will now only have a Representative at Large, and Montana, which had gone in recent decades from one to two to one member of the House will again have 2 seats in the lower chamber of Congress.

The “Rust Belt” continues to lose in the Northeast and Midwest, while the South and the West, generally called the “Sun Belt”, continues to gain seats and power, although California losing is a surprise. They will still have 52 (instead of 53) House seats and 54 (instead of 55) electoral votes in the 2020s.

New York has lost for seven decades in House seats and electoral votes, from a high of 45 and 47 in the 1930s and 1940s to 26 and 28 in the 2020s. while Florida in the same period has grown from 8 and 10 in the 1950s to 29 and 31 in the 2020s!

Hints That Texas Might Go Against Trump, And If So, Transforming The Presidential Election Of 2020

Ronald 9 Comments

It is ten months to the Presidential election on November 3, as the year 2020 begins.

There are strong hints that President Donald Trump is facing strong opposition in the Lone Star state of Texas in his reelection bid, and if he loses Texas in the Electoral College next fall, he is done, as there would be no way to overcome the loss of the second largest state in that vote count.

With 38 electoral votes in 2020, and likely 41 in 2024, Texas is the biggest catch for the future for the Democratic Party, but it really seems possible that it could go “Blue” this year.

If so, then the Democrats do not need the Midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin as much as they need them if Texas stays Republican.

One can be sure that there will be major campaigning and financial efforts to switch Texas in 2020 to the Democratic Presidential nominee!

The 2010s: 15 Major Events Which Had An Impact

Ronald 29 Comments

We are ending a decade in nine days from today, although technically a decade begins with a “1”, not a zero, but to most people, the fact that the number changes from “1” to “2” as the first digit, marks it as a new decade.

So looking back ten years, what are the major events in public affairs that have had an impact?

In no special order, here are the most significant events of the past decade:

The “Arab Spring”, which led to turmoil in the Middle East, and led to civil war and massive bloodshed in the area, but ultimately being overcome by authoritarian leaders and conditions of anarchy and chaos.

The passage of the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare), accomplished in the second year of the Obama Presidency.

The death of Al Qaeda terrorist leader Osama bin Laden, after avoiding capture for nearly ten years.

The election of Pope Francis by the Catholic Church, having a massive impact on Catholic doctrine, and liberalizing the church’s doctrines and teachings.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, leading to sanctions against Russia by the US and many European nations, and leading to Vladimir Putin working to undermine western democracies for the remainder of the decade.

The rise of the terrorist group ISIS (ISIL), which controlled large portions of Iraq and Syria, and engaged in massive abuses and tortures and executions, eventually mostly overcome by efforts of European nations and the United States.

The candidacy and election of Donald Trump to the Presidency, despite his divisive rhetoric and elements of nativism, racism, and misogyny.

Gay Marriage decision of the Supreme Court, a revolutionary change in American society.

Restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba, after five and a half decades of total isolation.

The massive tragedies of gun violence in schools, theaters, churches, synagogues, nightclubs, open air concerts, shopping malls and supermarkets, with no attempt to address the issue due to the power of the National Rifle Association over Congress and President Donald Trump.

Russian intervention in the Presidential Election of 2016, helping to secure the victory of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College, while losing the popular vote by 2.85 million votes, largest loss of popular vote of an Electoral College winner in American history.

The effects of the “Me Too” movement of women exposing sexual harassment against prominent public figures, causing many to lose their careers and reputations.

The horrendous policy of separating migrant children from their families at the southern border with Mexico and Central America, causing great condemnation of the Trump Administration.

The Robert Mueller investigation of the Trump Presidential campaign, and the Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2018, leading to the impeachment of Donald Trump after exposure of the Ukraine Scandal.

The growing reality of climate change and global warming, with the US under Donald Trump refusing to keep the Paris Accord of 2015 on goals for lowering of carbon emissions.

Latinos Future Democratic Base In Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas

Ronald 3 Comments

Donald Trump’s “war” on people of Hispanic ancestry is guaranteeing that the vast majority of Latinos in the future will be supporters of the Democratic Party long term, as they are in California.

When California Governor Pete Wilson promoted Proposition 187 to deny undocumented immigrants basic public services in the state, it backfired on him and the Republican Party, which had been dominant in the state for a few decades, including Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan as Californians who became President.

Proposition 187 was overturned in the courts, but it made the Republican Party the loser, as they rapidly lost any influence over the state, and the number of California Republicans in Congress dwindled down to seven in 2018, after years of great decline.

The same is about to happen in other states with large Latino population, including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and ultimately, Texas.

And as this begins to happen, some of it in 2020, and more by 2024 and after, it will insure Democratic Congresses in the future, as congressional seats in those states start to fall into the hands of the Democrats.

And the Electoral College will bring a bright future as these four states turn blue, and particularly when Texas does so in the next decade.

So the day of GOP dominance with gerrymandering and voter suppression will come to an end, but the Democrats will have a massive job undoing the damage left by Donald Trump and his party.

Likely Shifts In Political Power In The House Of Representatives And The Electoral College After The 2020 Census

Ronald 2 Comments

With the 2020 Census only seven months from now, attention is being paid to the likely shifts in political power in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College, after reapportionment of seats based on population changes.

Normally, about 16 states see the number of their Congressional seats and their total number of electoral votes changed up or down.

Right now, subject to change, the following 7 states will gain seats in the House starting in 2022, and electoral votes for the 2024 and 2028 Presidential election cycles:

Texas–3 seat gain

Florida–2 seat gain

North Carolina–1 seat gain

Arizona –1 seat gain

Colorado–1 seat gain

Oregon–1 seat gain

Montana–1 seat gain

These 7 states will gain a total of 10 seats and electoral votes.

The following 9 states will lose Congressional seats and electoral votes:

New York–2 seat loss

Pennsylvania–1 seat loss

Ohio–1 seat loss

Illinois–1 seat loss

Michigan–1 seat loss

West Virginia–1 seat loss

Alabama–1 seat loss

Rhode Island–1 seat loss

Also, either Minnesota might have a 1 seat loss, OR California, for the first time ever, might have a 1 seat loss.

Rhode Island had two House seats throughout its history, except for one decade when it had three seats, but now will have a Congressman At Large for the whole state in 2023. Montana had two House seats from 1913-1993, then a Congressman At Large for the whole state, and will return to two House seats in 2023, due to rapid growth. Rhode Island has not grown much at all in population, and soon will be surpassed by Montana.

Note that the long trend of the Sun Belt states gaining House seats and electoral votes continues, and the Rust Belt states losing House seats and electoral votes. The South and the West will continue to gain, while the Northeast and Midwest will continue to lose influence.

Which States Are Guaranteed To Vote For Donald Trump In 2020?

Ronald 4 Comments

Based on the percentages who voted for Donald Trump in the Presidential Election of 2016, the following is the list that will live and die with Donald Trump next year:

West Virginia 68 percent

Wyoming 67 percent

Oklahoma 65 percent

Nebraska 64 percent

North Dakota 63 percent

South Dakota 62 percent

Alabama 62 percent

Kentucky 62 percent

Arkansas 61 percent

Tennessee 61 percent

Idaho 59 percent

Louisiana 58 percent

Mississippi 58 percent

Alaska 57 percent

Kansas 57 percent

Indiana 57 percent

Missouri 57 percent

Montana 56 percent

South Carolina 55 percent

Utah is a special case, a Mormon dominated state, where Evan McMullin, the former CIA operative, a conservative, was able to win 22 percent of the vote, which when added to Donald Trump’s total (45 percent), meant more than 68 percent were against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

So if one adds these 20 states together, they add up to ONLY 125 electoral votes, meaning if Trump only won these 20 states, the Electoral College would be 413 for the Democratic Presidential nominee, a true landslide defeat for Donald Trump!

Note that these 20 states include 8 in the South; 5 in the Great Plains; 2 in the Midwest; and 5 in the West.

The Democrats Have A Great “Farm System” For The Future, While The Republicans Have A Gloomy Future!

Ronald 7 Comments

While the Republican Party gives up its future to Donald Trump, the Democratic Party has a bright future, as it has a great “farm system” for the future.

Think about it, that all of the new Democrats elected to Congress, and all of the younger Presidential contenders who will likely not make it to the Presidential nomination, offer much new talent for future advancement.

It is easy now to recruit the new generation to run for public office as Democrats, while Donald Trump has made it very distasteful and difficult for anyone to decide to run for office as a Republican.

With the nation’s future one of diversity, already many Democrats seeking office or in office are female, or African American, or Latino, or Asian American, or Native American, or Jewish, or gay, while the Republicans have a dwindling supply of mostly white Christian men, a dying species, as any rational person would steer away from being a Republican.

It seems clear that the Republican Party is dying, and that it cannot survive as a white male Christian party for the long run, while the Democratic Party has a bright future once it gets past the nightmare of Donald Trump, which will be seen as an aberration in history.

And with the Electoral College to see gains for such states as Texas, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina in electoral votes for 2024 and 2028, and with the growing Latino influence in those states, the Democrats have a great edge on winning the Presidency and control of Congress in the 2020s decade!

The Maine-Nebraska Split Electoral Vote Nightmare And The Presidential Election Of 2020

Ronald Leave a comment

Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that have allowed, by state legislative action, a split in the electoral vote for President.

Maine adopted this concept in 1972 and Nebraska in 1992, and a split has occurred once in each state.

In 2008, Barack Obama won the 2nd district of Nebraska (Omaha and its suburbs), the first and only time that Nebraska has seen a Democratic electoral vote since 1964.

In 2016, Donald Trump won Maine’s 2nd district, which covers most of the state away from Portland, Augusta, and nearly coastal areas, with that being the first time a Republican won an electoral vote since 1988.

So if Donald Trump won every state he gained in 2016, except Michigan and Pennsylvania, he would win the Electoral College no matter what the popular vote majority of the Democratic Presidential nominee, by a 270-268 margin. But if he lost the 2nd district of Maine, the Electoral College would be 269-269.

The same would occur if the Democratic Presidential nominee won the 2nd district of Nebraska as Obama did in 2008, as then the Electoral College would be 269-269.

This would be a true constitutional crisis beyond any other Presidential election in American history!

A Nightmare Scenario: Trump Loses Popular Vote By 6 Million, But Wins Electoral College 270-268

Ronald 14 Comments

Imagine a nightmare scenario:

The Democratic Presidential nominee wins California by an additional one million votes, and gains 800,000 votes in Texas, and wins extra popular votes elsewhere, winning the national popular vote by 6 million, but not gaining Texas in the Electoral College.

The Democratic Presidential nominee wins Michigan and Pennsylvania from Donald Trump, winning 36 electoral votes.

But Donald Trump has a chance to win New Mexico (5), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4) in the Electoral College. But let’s assume Trump does NOT win these states.

Donald Trump wins Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida by small margins, winning 89 electoral votes.

Donald Trump wins the Electoral College 270-268!

So, in summary, the only change under this scenario is that Trump loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, but wins every other state he won in 2016, and he wins by the barest margin!