Electoral Votes

Barack Obama And Gay Marriage: Politics Or Principle?

Ronald Leave a comment

The American public seems to be very skeptical of the motivations of President Barack Obama, when he declared support of gay marriage a week ago.

A new public opinion poll indicates that 67 percent of those polled think the declaration was based on politics, compared to 24 percent who think it was based on principle.

There is no question that the declaration of support for gay marriage has created a new dynamic, which could affect the fall election for President.

Not only devoutly religious Catholics and evangelical Christians are vehemently against what Obama has declared, but also the African American community is split, as many blacks who are devoutly religious join white religious voters in opposition.

Also, older voters over 50, and many Hispanics and Latinos who are religious, are also not happy over what Obama has declared.

At the same time, younger voters under 35, single women under 50, college educated voters, a majority in the larger urban states (such as California, New York and Illinois), and obviously, gay voters, are supportive.

The danger to Obama is that his opportunity to win the Southern states he won in 2008 (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida) is now more in play, at least in theory. Also believed to be in play are Indiana and Nevada and Colorado, other “swing” states that Obama won in 2008.

At the same time, Ohio and Iowa are thought to be still in Obama’s camp, due to the economic improvement in those states, along with other Midwestern states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. Pennsylvania still seems safe for Obama, while New Hampshire might be in play.

Let us assume all of the above as stated is fact. How would that affect the electoral map?

Obama starts out with what seems to be 227 electoral votes that are certain, including:

Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, California, Hawaii–18 states and DC.

If one adds Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Iowa, it adds 44 electoral votes, making for a total of 271 electoral votes, one more than needed to win the Presidency! That would mean 21 states and DC went for the President.

Now, let’s be frank! Can one really conceive that Obama will lose all of the following: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Indiana, Colorado, Nevada–a total of 87 electoral votes?

And beyond all this, remember the factor of LIKEABILITY! Romney is not well liked, and people do not feel that he is someone to trust to be out there for average Americans, that he does not and cannot understand the daily struggle of a majority of Americans who are not rich, and never will be rich!

Barack Obama has 60 percent of the nation liking him, as compared to Romney’s 31 percent.

Barack Obama is overwhelmingly favored by Hispanics and Latinos, single women, a majority of those under 35, organized labor, environmentalists, the college educated, and African Americans.

And now the Americans Elect group, which hoped to get a centrist, independent candidate on the ballot online, has come to the realization that there is no one strong or well known enough to be considered as its candidate, and the organization has folded.

So Barack Obama still has a massive edge, even with the issue of gay marriage possibly muddying the waters somewhat!

An African American Vs. A Mormon: The Quandary For The “Old Confederate” South

Ronald Leave a comment

Mitt Romney was dealt a walloping defeat last night in both Alabama and Mississippi, gaining only about 30 percent of the vote against his two competitors–winner Rick Santorum and runner up Newt Gingrich.

With all that, Romney still has twice the delegates of Santorum and three times the delegates of Gingrich, and is still seen as the likely nominee, although it may end up as a battle at the August Tampa Republican National Convention.

The problem is that Romney is perceived, particularly in the South, as not conservative enough, and overwhelming numbers of conservatives, Tea Party activists, and Evangelical Christians do not like, and were unwilling to support him. Romney has lost not just Alabama and Mississippi and Tennessee to Santorum, but also South Carolina and Georgia to Gingrich. The only “Old Confederate” Southern states he has won are Florida, which is unique in many respects, and Virginia, where he had only the competition of Ron Paul. Romney is not expected to win North Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana, or Texas, when those states vote in their primaries.

So the question arises: Can Mitt Romney, if he is the Republican nominee for President, carry the “Old Confederate” South? Will the conservatives, Tea Party, and Evangelical Christians get out there and organize and vote for him over Barack Obama?

Truthfully, low voter turnout, due to lack of enthusiasm, COULD cost Romney the election, if African Americans and Hispanics and Latinos come out in large numbers to vote, and are not prevented from voting by new voter ID laws.

These Republican groups will also have on their mind the reality that Mitt Romney is a Mormon, seen as a cult and non Christian by many Bible Belt types.

Is that worse than being an African American? In this unusual circumstance, an African American vs. a Mormon, an extremely unusual circumstance, who can honestly say what would happen?

The suspicion is that Obama could hold on in the states he won last time–Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, but also would have a shot at winning Georgia and even Texas, if there is a low GOP voter turnout, and if Hispanics and Latinos, growing numbers in both states, vote in high percentages for Obama, again without prevention by Voter ID laws designed to cut their vote, as well as that of African Americans.

No matter how much other Southern states may feel that the Mormon Church is unacceptable, to believe that Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas would vote for an African American, would require one to hallucinate!

The good thing is that the five states Obama could win have 111 electoral votes, while the other six states certain to vote Republican have only 49 electoral votes!

Were Obama to win more than two thirds of the electoral votes of the “Old Confederate” South, that would be an amazing development and would insure, all by itself, that Obama would win an overwhelming electoral vote victory in November 2012!

Florida In Many Ways The Major Battleground Of America In 2012

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The state of Florida is now the center of attention, with its Presidential primary coming up on Tuesday, and polls indicating that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a double digit lead over former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, with Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and Texas Congressman Ron Paul lagging behind.

Romney, by going on the attack against Gingrich in the two Florida debates this past week, and spending about four times as much on campaign advertising as Gingrich, seems likely to win despite the decision of two popular Floridians, Senator Marco Rubio and former Governor Jeb Bush to avoid endorsing anyone.

Without an endorsement, it still seems as if both Rubio and Bush are secretly behind Romney, seeing Gingrich as divisive and likely to cause a disruption in party unity.

Both are potential Vice Presidential candidates for Romney, and both are also potential Presidential candidates in 2016 if the Republicans lose to Barack Obama in 2012.

And being the third largest state, with an increase of two electoral votes, and matching New York in electoral votes, Florida becomes the biggest battleground of all, since California and New York are seen as strongly Democratic and Texas as strongly Republican.

Florida, won by Obama in 2008, is definitely up for grabs with its 29 electoral votes, and it is really three or four states. There is the Panhandle of Florida, likely to go Republican for sure. There is Central Florida, including Tampa and Orlando and other areas, which is the real battleground. There is Broward and Palm Beach Counties, likely to support Obama. And then there is the Miami-Dade County influence of Cuban Americans, traditionally Republican.

Florida is the South (Alabama) in the North; the Midwest in the Central area; and Northeast and Cuba in the South. It is also affected by the Jewish vote in South Florida and the Puerto Rican vote in Central Florida. As one observer summed it up, Florida is the Jews, the Cubans, and the “rednecks”! Of course, this is an oversimplification of the state’s political clout, but it is clear that the Republican nominee and President Obama will spend a lot of time in the state, as it may very well decide who occupies the White House in 2013!

On 40th Anniversary Of Iowa Caucuses And 60th Anniversary Of New Hampshire Primary, A Proposal For Regional Presidential Primaries

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Forty years ago, the Iowa Caucuses began, and sixty years ago, the New Hampshire Primary began, and they have become the center of attention in the battle every four years to nominate the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.

There has been much discontent with this system, whereby these two small rural states, unrepresentative of the nation, have a much greater impact on the nomination process than they should be allowed to have.

So the author proposes for the future a Regional Primary system, in which there would be five “Super Tuesdays” spread three weeks apart, starting the second Tuesday in January and ending at the beginning of April, with each four years in a twenty year cycle, a different regional primary going first, and all the regional primaries being rotated so that each primary will, over 20 years, go first, second, third, fourth and last in the voting process, in order to make the system fair and equitable.

Each regional primary would have at least one major state in electoral votes as part of the process, so as to make the impact of all the regional primaries be considered balanced and approximately of equal impact.

There would be a NORTHEASTERN primary–consisting of Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia–11 states and the nation’s capital–with a total of 112 electoral votes.

There would be a SOUTHERN primary, consisting of Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana–12 states– with 135 electoral votes.

There would be a MIDWEST primary, consisting of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma–13 states–with 125 electoral votes.

There would be a SOUTHWEST-MOUNTAIN STATES primary, consisting of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho–9 states–and 85 electoral votes.

And finally, there would be a PACIFIC COAST primary, with Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska and Hawaii–5 states–with 81 electoral votes.

With the primaries being regional and rotating, all states over a twenty year period would have equal impact, and campaigning would be easier, as the mileage differences would be minor since all the states competing on the same day, and with three weeks between primary dates, would be convenient for campaign swings and travel.

This would be a much better system than the crazy, disjointed one we now have, and would get the American people much more motivated, involved, and likely to participate in the primaries!

Four “McCain” States Which Could Be Won By Barack Obama In 2012

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A lot of attention is being given to the idea that President Barack Obama could lose some of the “swing states” that he won in the Presidential Election of 2008–including Virginia, North Carolina and Florida in the South; New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast; Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota in the Midwest; and Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada in the Mountain West.

While it is true that he could lose some of these states, what is less recognized and talked about is the potential for Barack Obama to win FOUR states which went to John McCain–Georgia with 16 electoral votes, Missouri with 10 electoral votes, Arizona with 11 electoral votes, and Texas with 38 electoral votes–therefore a possible total of 75 electoral votes!

This is not saying Obama is certain to win any of the four states listed above, but it is POSSIBLE, primarily because of the growing Hispanic and Latino population in Georgia, Arizona and Texas, and because Missouri was lost by only about 4,000 votes! Missouri is the state which has always gone with the winner in Presidential elections since 1900, with only two exceptions–1956 when Adlai Stevenson defeated President Eisenhower by about 4,000 votes, and then in 2008 when Senator John McCain also won by about 4,000 votes over President Obama!

The odds would seem better in Missouri first and Georgia second, much less likely in Arizona, and a long shot in Texas. Certainly, in theory, these states are much more likely to go Democratic in future years, as the Republicans are losing the future with their anti immigrant philosophy and rhetoric.

So the Presidential Election of 2012 has not only FOURTEEN states as “swing states”, but also possibly another FOUR, making it a total of EIGHTEEN states which will be the focus of most of the political campaigning and advertising over the next eleven months!