“Establishment” Republicans

Back To The Future: Mitt Romney In 2016?

Ronald 3 Comments

The Republican Party is so torn apart that now there are rumors and hints that 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, is reconsidering his decision not to run again, due to the collapse of the so called “Establishment” Republicans, led by former Governor Jeb Bush.

Bush has run a poor campaign, despite all of the money he has gathered, and there are indications that he is starting to be abandoned, as Donald Trump continues to take up all of the oxygen in the Republican race.

While Ohio Governor John Kaisch has made some progress in his campaign, he is far from being seen as anywhere near becoming a leader in the competition for the Presidency, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio has not impressed many in his quest for the nomination.

So Romney may decide to enter the race, but still with the same shortcomings and faults that caused his defeat by President Barack Obama in 2012.

To believe that Romney could, somehow, win the Presidency in 2016 is mostly hype and delusion.

The question arises:  How many times has a defeated Presidential candidate come back to win the Presidency?  Here are the facts, a total of 5 times:

Thomas Jefferson lost the Presidency in 1796 and won in 1800.

Andrew Jackson lost the Presidency in 1824 and won in 1828.

William Henry Harrison lost the Presidency in 1836 and won in 1840.

Grover Cleveland lost the Presidency in 1888 and won in 1892.

Richard Nixon lost the Presidency in 1960 and won in 1968.

That is it, five Presidents, but realize that Jackson and Cleveland actually won the popular vote in their losing races in 1824 and 1888, but lost the electoral vote, and Cleveland had been President, then lost, and then won.

Of course, there have been 4 times when a future President lost the nomination of his party, and then went on to win the Presidency later, including:

James Monroe lost the nomination in 1808 to James Madison, but then won the Presidency in 1816.

Lyndon B. Johnson lost the nomination in 1960 to John F. Kennedy, but then became President by succession in 1963.

Ronald Reagan lost the nomination in 1976 to Gerald Ford, but then won the Presidency in 1980.

George H. W. Bush lost the nomination in 1980 to Ronald Reagan, but then won the Presidency in 1988.

At the same time, there have been 5 candidates nominated multiple times and never winning the Presidency, as follows:

Charles C. Pinckney won the nomination in 1804 and 1808.

Henry Clay won the nomination in 1824, 1832, and 1844.

William Jennings Bryan won the nomination in 1896, 1900, and 1908.

Thomas E. Dewey won the nomination in 1944 and 1948.

Adlai E. Stevenson II won the nomination in 1952 and 1956.

Also being on the ballot for President multiple times were Socialist Party nominees Eugene V. Debs (1900, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1920) and Norman Thomas (1928, 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948) and Ross Perot (Independent in 1992 and Reform Party in 1996).

In any case, the odds that Romney, if he ran for President, would become the Republican nominee and win the Presidency are very poor!

 

 

 

The Anti Vaccine Republican Crowd: Pure Madness, Defying Science And Medicine!

Ronald 1 Comment

One would think that the Republican Party had reached its nadir with the Tea Party Movement whackos, but now they have hit a new low, and it does not only include Tea Party types, but even so called “Establishment” Republicans!

We have now seen Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie come out in support of allowing parents to decide if their young children are to be vaccinated when they are infants and before they attend school, as there has been a crisis with a new outbreak of the measles virus. Christie tried to reverse himself, but sadly, once said, it is too late to modify his idiotic original statement!

It is not an issue of parental rights, but of responsibility to society, that ALL parents MUST accept the idea that their kids MUST be vaccinated, even if it is against their so called “religious” beliefs!

Religion or crazy ideas cannot trump the public safety of all of us and all of our children, and if parents refuse, the only answer is to arrest and charge them with a crime, and take away their children, who unlike Rand Paul says, are not “owned” by their parents, a weird and sick term for him to use.

The idea that libertarian Rand Paul and mainstream Republican Chris Christie could take such a reckless and irresponsible stand is beyond common sense!

It is now essential that all potential Republican nominees for the Presidency be required to give a conclusive answer on this matter, and NOW, not months from now!

And any potential nominee who at all agrees with Paul and Christie should automatically be repudiated as unacceptable to be the nominee, and if such a person is nominated, or the party takes the anti vaccine stand in the upcoming Presidential campaign, then the intelligent, educated population MUST fight tooth and nail to make sure that we do not have a government leader who repudiates science and medicine!

And a brief compliment to potential nominee Dr. Benjamin Carson, who has said and promoted many reckless things, and who this author thinks is totally unqualified for the Presidency, and will continue to promote that idea: Dr. Carson, thank you for making clear how you believe that vaccinations are necessary!

Personality DOES Matter: Why Chris Christie Will Never Be President!

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New Jersey Governor Chris Christie may be described as the most centrist Republican Presidential candidate, and also as one of the “Establishment” Republican Presidential contenders, which includes Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney.

But we have NEVER had a person as confrontational, as rude, as bullyish, as loudmouth, as obnoxious, as Chris Christie has been with ordinary New Jersey citizens who dare to challenge or question him!

Can one imagine such a person as President, speaking to foreign leaders, directly or indirectly, in such a undiplomatic manner? We would have World War EIGHT, as he would inspire wars just with his dripping sarcasm and lack of tact!

It might be entertaining to some in New Jersey that Christie is such a character, and we have seen staff and supporters around him who laugh heartily when he goes after a tax payer, a parent, a critic, but there is nothing laughable about such behavior!

We have never had a President with such a personality, and have never had a nominee with such a personality, and we are not about to witness that happening!

Chris Christie, if he enters the Presidential fray, will be repudiated in the Iowa Caucus in January of next year, not only for his comparative moderation on issues and views, but also on his brusque personality, which does not wear well in the Midwest, a comparatively low key, friendly environment of people who are laid back in nature, and do not like rudeness or nastiness. And New Hampshire citizens in their primary, and New Englanders, will also not take well to Chris Christie’s New Jersey “in your face” mannerisms and speech!

So the best suggestion for Chris Christie: Stay out of the Republican Presidential race, and avoid embarrassing yourself, and being soundly repudiated1

The Republican Presidential Race Is In Full Swing, Even Without Formal Announcements!

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Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has stirred up a hornet’s nest, simply by indicating that he is considering seeking the Presidency, and taking the first steps in that direction.

Suddenly, we saw the reaction, including:

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee resigning from his Fox News Channel Sunday evening show

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP Presidential nominee, indicating he is seriously considering running for President for a third time, encouraging financial supporters, and making known that his wife Anne is on board.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, making clear his intention to run, and attacking rivals Mike Huckabee, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and even attacking Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who Santorum said he doubts will actually run for President. The language utilized by Santorum against these rivals was to call them “bomb throwers”, as if he has, himself, not been exactly that throughout his political career.

In the wings are New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Texas Governor Rick Perry, as well as Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan (Mitt Romney’s running mate for Vice President in 2012).

The Presidential race has two components: the mainstream “establishment” race of Bush, Romney and Christie; and the Tea Party right wing race of the others; with Walker and Ryan possibly joining the mainstream “establishment” race, if they actually enter the fray.

And as I write, Donald Trump has hinted he plans to enter the race, only adding to the drama and, also, comedy, that will be present in the race!

The potential for 12 or more candidates getting in the race are good, and the gloves are starting to come off, and it should be a very interesting race, but on the way to defeat in 2016 to the Democratic nominee, most likely Hillary Clinton at this point, but really any Democrat having the edge in the Electoral College battle that decides the Presidency!

Jeb Bush Faces Fierce Opposition As He Plans Presidential Run For 2016!

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Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has become the first Republican to indicate his intention to seek the Republican Presidential nomination in 2016, but he faces fierce opposition from the right wing of his party–the Tea Party, many Congressional conservatives, talk radio, and Fox News Channel.

The feeling of many is that Jeb is too centrist, too much “Establishment” Republican for much of the party that has become extreme right wing.

Jeb is seen as unwilling to cater to the Right; that he wants to run as a moderate Republican; and he continues to back national educational standards, known as Common Core; supports immigration reform, as his brother did in office; and the thought of a third Bush Presidency is not very appealing to many in his party.

Jeb is seen as arrogant, cocky, and condescending to many who do not agree with him, and his family’s close association with Bill and Hillary Clinton, ironic if Bush runs against Hillary, also alienates many in his party.

Jeb has also said it is time for the GOP to stop trying to repeal ObamaCare, and also refuses to say that he will never raise taxes if elected President.

So while he is now seen as the frontrunner for the nomination, the likelihood of his being the candidate in 2016 is seen as highly unlikely, as the party continues its move out of the mainstream!

It Looks As If The Bush Dynasty Is Not Done: Hints That Jeb Bush Will Announce For President!

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It now seems clear that Jeb Bush, the former Florida Governor; and brother of the 43rd President, George W. Bush; and son of the 41st President, George H. W. Bush, will soon announce his candidacy for the 2016 Republican Presidential nomination.

Jeb has not run for political office since 2002, and has not been in political office since 2006, but he is making the rounds of appropriate sites and venues, and speaking out on the issues as he sees them, many of them alienating the Tea Party Movement within the GOP, but soothing the mainstream, “Establishment” Republicans, who tend to control the party machinery when it comes to actual nomination battles, including those of Bob Dole in 1996, John McCain in 2008, and Mitt Romney in 2012.

If Jeb does run, he will run as a hawk in foreign policy, and sympathetic on immigration and “common core” educational standards in domestic policy, all of which will irritate many who are part of the right wing extremists in the party in 2014.

If he runs, it will also make the Bush family a true dynasty covering nearly 40 years of American politics, as his dad was considered as a possible Vice Presidential alternative, instead of Gerald Ford, when Spiro Agnew resigned at the time that Richard Nixon was under fire for Watergate.

Ford also thought of George H W Bush as a possible running mate in 1976, maybe not seriously, but under consideration, and then Bush became a Presidential candidate in 1980, ended up as the runner up, and agreed to join Ronald Reagan as Vice President for two terms. This was followed by one term in the White House, and then a bitter defeat to Bill Clinton in 1992.

But his two oldest sons then ran for the Governorships of Texas and Florida in 1994, and when Jeb lost in Florida by a very small margin, he set his sights on 1998, when he won in Florida, and then served as Florida Governor for two terms, while brother George W. went to the White House for two controversial terms.

Jeb running would create great controversy, but the Bush Family is not afraid of that, and it seems doubtful now that mother Barbara arguing against Jeb running will be listened to anymore.

Were he to win and serve two terms, Jeb would add to the fact that the Bush Dynasty would have lasted longer than any other, even more than the Adamses (John and John Quincy, and with THREE Presidents, not two. And the theoretical Kennedy dynasty would look quite insignificant, since only John F. Kennedy had the opportunity to serve as President, despite the desires of many that Robert and Ted Kennedy might do the same.

So although the Bush dynasty might not seem as glamorous as the Kennedy dynasty has often been seen, it is still making history!

Jeb Bush and Rob Portman Are Lost Causes! Where Is John Kasich As The Alternative For The Mainstream Conservative Republicans?

Ronald 2 Comments

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush says, if he runs for President, that he will NOT kiss the ring of the extreme Right Wing of the Republican Party!

Well, Jeb, forget it then, as you will never win the GOP nomination, being that you are part of the so called “Establishment”! The Tea Party Right Wing extremists will fight you tooth and nail to prevent you being the GOP Presidential nominee!

Being more sympathetic to immigration reform will hurt Bush, as well as support for “Common Core” education, and just being a Bush will hurt as well!

Meanwhile, one of the most viable GOP potential nominees, Senator Rob Portman of Ohio, has decided not to seek the Presidency in 2016, and instead run for reelection.

Portman would have had trouble anyway, being George W. Bush’s Budget Director as the deficit swelled; and also for the fact that he has come out for gay marriage, after his son revealed himself to be gay, making Portman one of only four Republican Senators to endorse gay marriage so far! But being from Ohio and being NOT a looney candidate, as so many potential Republicans are, he would have been a far better choice for President than many of them!

So we have lost two potential mainstream conservatives to the race for President–Bush, by his statements that he will not cater to the extremists; and Portman, for showing his belief that it would be unlikely he could win the nomination, and desirous, instead, of keeping his Senate seat!

So again, the question is: Is Governor John Kasich of Ohio ready to take the plunge, and give respectability to the GOP battle for the Presidency?

Jon Huntsman Withdraws From Presidential Campaign Of 2016 Before It Begins; Sees The Handwriting On The Wall!

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This blogger and author has, over the past few years, made clear his admiration for former Utah Governor, and former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, as an unusually good choice for the Republican Presidential nomination, both in 2012 and now in 2016.

Unlike every other potential nominee, Huntsman has a solid record in foreign policy, and along with Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, is one of the three potential Presidents fully experienced and qualified to deal with the world.

With his announced withdrawal from any consideration for the Presidency in 2016, now the only hope for a well experienced person to deal with foreign policy is either the Vice President or the former Secretary of State and First Lady!

The Republican Party has a dearth of decent, qualified candidates, with most of them far off to the Right, and many of them pure lunatic fringe!

So called Establishment Republicans have lost their own credibility, including 2012 Presidential nominee Mitt Romney; New Jersey Governor Chris Christie; and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, all of whom have major shortcomings.

The thought of an Ohio Republican, such as Governor John Kasich or Senator Rob Portman crosses one’s mind, but although Ohio is crucial, the odds of either man becoming the Presidential nominee are very low, and already it has been made clear that Portman, one of only four Republican Senators who has supported Gay Marriage, has no chance, as the GOP will NOT nominate a pro Gay Rights and Gay Marriage nominee, due to the deleterious effect of the Christian Right, which continues to promote hate and poisonous rhetoric on the subject.

So the fact that Huntsman realizes the odds are impossible for a decent, solid candidate like him to run, is a sign of the death knell of the party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and Dwight D. Eisenhower!

The Presidential Election of 2016 will be a landslide Electoral College victory for the Democrats!

George W. Bush Promotes Brother Jeb For President!

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We have had two Bush Presidencies, but now George W. Bush is promoting his younger brother, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, to run for President in 2016!

Jeb Bush would be seen as part of the Establishment Republicans, not a popular group in the extreme right wing Tea Party Movement that has hijacked the traditions of the Republican Party historically.

Jeb is not nativist like many Republicans on immigration; after all, his own wife is Mexican-American!

Jeb has never gone as far to the right as many Republicans do today, and that makes him suspect among them.

And of course, there is exhaustion over the concept of a third Bush Presidency, after twelve years of Bushes in the past 26 years, with only Bill Clinton between them, and if Jeb became President, with only Barack Obama between the two sons of George H. W. Bush.

Jeb would be a mainstream, rational choice for President, but that is not the bent of the GOP of 2014.

And Jeb has NOT been running for public office since his second gubernatorial run in 2002, and will have been out of office for ten years, by the Presidential Election of 2016. And no one ever elected President has been out of public office as long as Jeb will have been, other than those who were generals, or businessman Wendell Willkie in 1940, with the one other exception being Abraham Lincoln, who had been out of public office for 12 years when elected to the Presidency in 2016!

Jeb would bring intelligence, knowledge, and competence to the White House, much more than his brother George W. had in 2000.

But he also represents the past, and is very likely to cater to the right wing, and most certainly, would NOT be a progressive oriented President, anymore than his brother or dad.

The odds of Jeb deciding to run should be seen as 40 percent, and the chances of being the nominee is more like 30 percent, and the odds of being elected would be no more than 45 percent.

The best guess is that Jeb will decide, ultimately, NOT to run, as his own wife seems reluctant, and that is an important factor in any candidate’s decision to run.

Imagine though a scenario of Jeb Bush vs. Hillary Clinton. Would that encourage voters to stay home or to come out in droves to vote? More likely, the latter!

The Argument For A Midwestern Governor For The Republican Party In 2016 Presidential Race!

Ronald 2 Comments

There is a growing feeling in the Republican Party, and among prognosticators, that the pool of GOP candidates for President in 2016 is lacking in so many ways.

Chris Christie is in trouble due to the scandal over the George Washington Bridge, and his handling of Hurricane Sandy money.

Scott Walker is in trouble over charges that he was involved in corruption during the 2012 recall campaign in Wisconsin.

Ted Cruz has made enemies every time he opens his mouth, and his push to close down the government in 2013 backfired, and caused division within Republican ranks.

Rand Paul is leading a fight against the “Establishment”, and is unlikely to be able to win support to be the nominee, with his libertarian and isolationist views.

Marco Rubio made enemies with his immigration reform plan, and is seen as having floundered ever since.

Paul Ryan has come across as someone who has no understanding of what middle class people go through, and with little compassion for the poor, and even fellow Catholics are often critical of him.

Bobby Jindal has come across as insincere, uncaring about his own constituents, and has lost whatever luster he once had.

Rick Perry may have gained classy glasses to wear, but he is still a horrible candidate in so many ways.

Rick Santorum is trying to reform his image as well, but he is still a former Senator who lost his seat ten years ago.

Mike Huckabee is an also ran from the 2008 Presidential campaign, and has sounded more looney than ever each month as his Fox News Channel show pushed him much further right than he had been in 2008, when he actually sounded reasonable.

Jeb Bush looks much better by comparison with other Republicans, but he is still a Bush, and has supported immigration reform and the common core education curriculum, both unpopular with his party, and besides, he certainly represents the “Establishment” more than anyone.

Mitt Romney claims not to be interested at all in running again, but yet he is seen by many as the fallback choice, despite his losing the Presidency in 2012.

Jon Huntsman, arguably the best candidate possible, seems to have absolutely no chance to convince the Republican Party that his moderate, practical conservatism is the right path.

The more one thinks about it, it makes sense that the Republican Party should seriously consider finding a candidate, preferably a Governor, from the Midwest, which is the true battleground of the Presidential Election of 2016!

None of the above mentioned candidates for the Presidency are from the Midwest, except for Ryan and Walker, both from Wisconsin, but both have fatal flaws hard to overcome.

But all of the Midwest, except Illinois, is arguably a battleground, although only Indiana and Missouri went Republican in 2012, and only Missouri in 2008!

Ohio and Iowa are true battlegrounds, and Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are potentially up for grabs by either party.

So what seems to make sense is to give a hard look at two Midwestern Republican Governors, both of whom have served in Congress, and understand Washington, DC, but have also governed key states that are good models for preparation for the White House, at least in theory!

These two Governors are:

John Kasich of Ohio

Mike Pence of Indiana.

A lot more attention will be given to these two men as we get closer to the real beginning of the Presidential race at the end of 2014 and going into early 2015!