Gary Johnson

The Potential Of Justin Amash To “Mess Up” The 2020 Presidential Election Is High

Ronald 33 Comments

Michigan Congressman Justin Amash, elected as a Tea Party Congressman in the Republican “wave” of 2010, went on to a ten year career, including heading the “Liberty Caucus” and being a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, an extreme right wing group that warred against Speaker John Boehner and his successor, Paul Ryan.

Amash went on to vote for the impeachment of Donald Trump in 2019, and to leave the Republican Party, and now he is an announced candidate for the Libertarian Party Presidential nomination.

Considering that Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee received about 3.3 percent of the popular vote and 4.5 million votes in 2016, it is a concern whether Amash could perform at the same level in 2020, and whether it would harm Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the election.

Amash is complicated, as he supports the following that could bring over disaffected Democrats who wanted Bernie Sanders:

He voted against religious institutions being eligible for FEMA grants.

He supported gay marriage being left alone after the Supreme Court ruled in favor in 2015.

He has stated his opposition to political gerrymandering.

He voted against the reauthorization of the Patriot Act in 2011.

He voted against the Trump executive order banning migrating of people from seven majority Muslim nations.

He has stated his support of transgender American rights.

He has opposed building a Mexico Wall.

He has refused to support Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) without agreement that there have been abuses that need to be addressed, while believing in the basic mission of ICE.

He has opposed US support of Saudi Arabia in its war against Yemen.

He has voted against any war against Iran by executive decision, only if Congress agreed by majority vote of both houses of Congress.

And of course, he has been a consistent critic of Donald Trump from the beginning.

So, while Amash is a big Trump critic, he could get disaffected Democrats who are not thrilled with Joe Biden, to vote for him, and that could be a decisive factor in his home state of Michigan and other “swing’ states!

Former Congressman And South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford Considers GOP Challenge To Donald Trump For 2020 Presidential Nomination: A Waste Of Time

Ronald Leave a comment

It seems possible that Donald Trump may gain a second challenger for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2020, as former South Carolina Governor and former Congressman Mark Sanford is considering announcing for President in the next 30 days.

Sanford would join former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld as a challenger, but with far less legitimacy.

Weld was the Vice Presidential running mate of Gary Johnson on the Libertarian Party ticket in 2016, with the party gaining nearly three million votes. Weld was an outstanding governor from 1991-1997, and while there is no realistic chance that Weld can stop Trump, at least he has dignity and principle, unlike Sanford.

Sanford considered running for President in 2012, but was destroyed by a sex scandal ten years ago, and lost all credibility as a decent political figure, no matter whether one agreed with his principles. He resigned, and went on to be sent back to the House of Representatives, where he had served before becoming Governor. He then lost his seat in the primary in 2018 due to his open opposition to Donald Trump.

He is a rare figure who came out against Trump, and paid for it with loss of his seat, but he is no paragon of virtue, even on the subject of racism, as he says he might run against Trump, but not because of Trump’s racist, nativist, and misogynistic utterances and actions, but rather on the issue of the budget deficits.

So we have yet another disgraceful person, added to the late entry of Billionaire Tom Steyer, to the Democratic race, but at the end, neither Sanford nor Steyer is getting anywhere near the White House in 2021.

Justin Amash And Howard Schultz The Potential Spoilers In 2020 Presidential Election

Ronald 6 Comments

In the midst of the battle for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020, one can lose sight of the reality that a third party or independent candidate could affect the election result, as it did in 2016.

Third parties and independent candidacies for President have played a role in past elections, and the death last week of Independent and Reform Party Presidential candidate H. Ross Perot brings that to mind.

Presently, we have two potential spoilers–Michigan Republican Congressman Justin Amash, who might run as the Libertarian Party nominee against Donald Trump; and billionaire businessman Howard Schultz of Starbucks fame, who might run as an independent nominee, and harm the Democratic Presidential candidate.

Either or both could draw millions of votes, as Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party did in 2016, when Johnson gained 4.5 million votes and Stein gained 1.5 million votes. Additionally, Evan McMullin of Utah, who ran as an Independent, gained about nearly three quarters of a million votes. So together, these three non major party nominees gained a total of about 6.75 million votes , about 5 percent of the total popular votes cast.

Ralph Nader and Patrick Buchanan had played roles in the 2000 Presidential election, as Ross Perot did in 1992 and 1996. And John Anderson was a factor in 1980, as George Wallace was in 1968.

Whether Amash and or Schultz will be a major factor in 2020, and draw millions of votes, is a center of speculation in the summer of 2019!

Bill Weld Begins A Quixotic Race Against Donald Trump For Soul Of Republican Party

Ronald 2 Comments

Former Massachusetts Governor William Weld (1991-1997), who also was the Vice Presidential nominee on the Libertarian Party line with Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in 2016, has begun what is seen as a Quixotic race against Donald Trump for the soul of the Republican Party.

The question is whether the GOP has a soul, and there is much doubt about it, as they have allowed themselves to become an extremist right wing party that is against the American tradition of fairness, equity, and its own early history of support for civil rights under Abraham Lincoln, and progressivism under Theodore Roosevelt.

This is the time for two others, who are much more likely, if they ran against Trump for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2020, to have a real chance of stopping him, or at least, of tarnishing him enough to cause his defeat in the election.

This blogger is referring to former Ohio Governor and former Congressman John Kasich, and former Utah Governor, former Ambassador to China, and present Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman.

These two were the only decent, reasonable candidates of the Republican Party for the Presidency in 2012 for Huntsman and 2016 for Kasich.

Both have their shortcomings, as all candidates do, but have a distinct record of accomplishments, competency, and decency to revive the Republican historical image that has been lost in recent years, and accelerated by the disgrace that is Donald Trump.

The Beginning Of A Challenge To Donald Trump For Renomination: William Weld And Larry Hogan

Ronald 19 Comments

It seems as if the beginning of a challenge to Donald Trump for renomination by the Republican Party has arrived.

Former Massachusetts Governor William Weld (1991-1997) , also the Libertarian nominee for Vice President in 2016 with Presidential nominee Gary Johnson, has indicated he is planning to challenge Trump. He would be 75 at the time of the inauguration in 2021.

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who just won reelection last year by a 12 point margin, has also indicated he plans to compete for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2020. He would be 64 at the time of the next election.

Both are moderate Republicans, seen as centrist and pragmatic, and both won office in heavily Democratic states.

Weld has a distinguished aristocratic background starting with ancestors coming over on the Mayflower with the Pilgrims in 1620. He was a counsel with the House Judiciary Committee during the Watergate Impeachment inquiry, and with one of his colleagues being Hillary Rodham, before she married Bill Clinton.

Hogan has the heritage of being the son of a Congressman, with the same name, who, as a member of the House Judiciary Committee in 1974, voted to bring impeachment charges against President Richard Nixon.

Can either of them seriously overcome the advantages of being an incumbent President?

History tells us when incumbent Presidents are challenged for renomination, invariably, the President defeats his opponent, but then loses the election.

So even if Weld or Hogan cannot defeat Trump, hopefully, they can weaken him enough that he will follow in the tradition of William Howard Taft, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush, who overcame, respectively, Theodore Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan, Ted Kennedy, and Pat Buchanan, and yet lost the second term as President.

Crucial Senate Races On Road To Democratic Majority In 116th Congress

Ronald Leave a comment

The US Senate will be a major battleground this coming November.

Ten “Red State” Democrats face the challenge of winning their seats, with a few of them the most endangered.

If the Senate is to go Democratic, all ten seats must be won by their Democratic veterans, but that is a tall order, and is tied to the hearings over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

The most endangered regarding that issue are West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp, and Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly.

Also possibly in trouble on that issue is Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill.

These four Senators are seen as moderate, rather than liberal Democrats, and all of them except McCaskill, voted for Supreme Court Justice nominee Neil Gorsuch last year.

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr., Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin, Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, and Montana Senator Jon Tester all seem safer in their Senate races as of now, but that could change.

The most endangered incumbent, with or without the Kavanaugh vote, is Florida Senator Bill Nelson, who has Governor Rick Scott as his opponent, and with Scott having triple the amount of funds that Nelson has been able to garner. Scott is horrific, but he won two close races for Governor in 2010 and 2014, using his own wealth.

Now there is a new threat, that New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich might have more trouble being reelected, as former Governor and Libertarian Party 2016 Presidential candidate Gary Johnson, has just entered the race as an Independent, and in a three way race, anything is possible.

The problem is that even if all of these 11 Senators are successfully reelected, the Democrats still must win two more seats, with Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and Texas as possibilities in that order.

If the Democrats are able to win 51 seats in 2018, it would have to be considered a true miracle!

Possible Democratic Gains In US Senate In Midterm Elections Of 2018

Ronald 6 Comments

The Democrats have a massive challenge ahead, somehow to reelect all ten “Red State” Democratic Senators, but also, at the same time, to gain at least two additional seats and have a majority of 51 or more in the US Senate.

This is crucial to stop the worst of Trump Administration policies, and to insure that any future Supreme Court or Circuit or District Court judgeships not be as extreme right wing, as are occurring now.

Six seats seem open to switching to the Democrats:

Arizona, where Jeff Flake is retiring, and where Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema is ahead of three potential Republican opponents.

Nevada, where Dean Heller is the most endangered Republican Senator up for reelection, challenged by Congresswoman Jacky Rosen, and she has been ahead of Heller in many public opinion polls.

Tennessee, where Bob Corker is retiring, and former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen is seen as ahead of Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn.

Texas, where Ted Cruz is gaining a serious challenge from Congressman Beto O’Rourke of El Paso, and O’Rourke has raised more money than Cruz, who famously is disliked by all his fellow Senators by the testimony of many Democrats and even Republican colleagues.

Mississippi, where Thad Cochran retired suddenly due to bad health, and will have a special election to fill the seat, temporarily filled, and the hope that an upset is possible, as occurred in Alabama last fall, with Doug Jones taking a normal Republican seat. Mike Espy, former Congressman, Secretary of Agriculture for two years under Bill Clinton, and an African American, is seen as having some chance to take the seat, although not seen as likely to win, but a surprise could occur.

Mississippi, where Roger Wicker faces a challenge from state legislator David Baria, Minority Leader of the state legislature, who is seen as having a reasonable chance to win.

The first three of these six seats seem likely to go to the Democrats, which if true, would allow the loss of one of the ten “Red State” Democrats, and still have 51 seats, but that does not leave much room for error.

If all six seats, magically, went Democratic, and no loss of any of the “Red State” Democrats in November occurred, in theory, the Democrats could have as many as 55 seats, but that is clearly a result with very low potential to occur.

One more issue: New Mexico, where Democrat Martin Heinrich should have no trouble winning, but if former Republican Governor and 2016 Libertarian Party Presidential nominee Gary Johnson decides to run for the Senate, creating a three way race, it could put Heinrich’s seat in jeopardy.

So the challenge for Democrats to gain a Senate majority of 51 votes is clouded by overwhelming challenges!

The Destructive Nature Of Third Parties: Protest Vote But Leads Too Often To Less Preferable Nominee Winning White House

Ronald 4 Comments

Third Parties are supposed to represent democracy in action, but we have now learned the hard way that it denies popular vote winners the Presidency!

It happened in 2000, when Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan took enough votes away to harm Al Gore, and elect George W. Bush.

And now it has happened again in 2016, with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein taking enough votes to harm Hillary Clinton and elect Donald Trump.

Bush did much harm in his Presidency, and realistically, Donald Trump can be seen as likely to do even greater damage.

Any one who voted third party in 2000 or 2016 should feel guilt, as it has led to the worse choice, and nothing was accomplished, except maybe to feel good that one protested.

There is no way to prevent third party movements, but it has NEVER had a positive effect, with maybe the exception of Theodore Roosevelt’s Progressive (Bull Moose) Party in 1912.

But in a democracy, nothing can be done to prevent this harmful action from taking place, so likely, we will lose the better Presidential nominee more times in the future!

Vast Majority Of Women, African Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans, Millennials, College Educated, Against Trump!

Ronald 10 Comments

With less than two weeks to the election, the following is clear:

The vast majority of women, having self respect no matter what their political leanings, are going to vote for Hillary Clinton and against Donald Trump. They know he is a womanizer, a misogynist, and a sexist, who objectifies women and brags about his conquests, like a teenage jerk.

The vast majority of African Americans are against Donald Trump, knowing his racism and condescending attitude toward them.

The vast majority of Hispanic Americans are disgusted by Donald Trump’s nativism, and promotion of building a wall at the Mexican border.

The vast majority of Asian Americans, recognizing that Trump is as prejudiced against them as other ethnic minority groups, are not going to vote for him.

Millennials, aware that Donald Trump offers nothing for them, as he only concerns himself with the wealthy upper class, will vote for Hillary Clinton, or Gary Johnson, or Jill Stein, but with the majority likely to go to Hillary Clinton.

The college educated will, for the first time, go Democratic. because they see Donald Trump as promoting prejudice, discrimination, and bias, and their education makes them unwilling to support a person they see as a demagogue.

So who is left to back Trump? Well, for one thing, working class white Americans, non college educated, who are drawn to Trump by his charisma, and want to believe that he really cares about them, when he has no interest in them at all, and many of them will be very disillusioned when, after the election, they realize they have been bamboozled by a con man!

Trump will also be backed by racists, nativists. antisemites, misogynists, Islamophobes, and homophobes, and such people of any background or description, are correctly described by Hillary Clinton as a “basket of deplorables.”

Amen to that a thousand percent!

Evan McMullin, Independent Presidential Nominee, Could Win Utah’s 6 Electoral Votes

Ronald Leave a comment

In the midst of all of the attention paid to Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein, there is actually another Presidential candidate on the ballot in eleven states, Evan McMullin, running as a conservative alternative.

McMullin is a possible winner in Utah, with its 6 electoral votes, with his Mormon heritage, and his record as Chief Policy Director for the House Republican Conference, and as a CIA Operations Officer, all by the age of 40, easily the youngest Presidential candidate in a year where three are “elderly” and Gary Johnson is 63.

In a recent poll, McMullin had 20 percent, only a few points behind Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and with Gary Johnson having 14 percent, so there is a real four way race in Utah, the only state that we see that situation.

McMullin is pro life on abortion matters; accepts gay marriage; is pro free trade; against mass deportation of undocumented immigrants; and supports the basics of ObamaCare, but wants to make a better system. He is critical of Donald Trump on counter terrorism measures, as he has years of experience in that area of policy making.

He could “mess up” the Electoral College, and could become the first non major party candidate to win a state’s electoral votes since George Wallace in 1968.

It is highly unlikely that if he won the state of Utah with its 6 electoral votes, that he would be the decisive factor in who wins 270 electoral votes, but in theory, he could prevent any candidate from winning the required number of electoral votes, and require the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, which has not been used since 1824, to be dusted off once again after 192 years!

If such a scenario developed, there is a slight chance that McMullin could become President, but do not bet on it by any means!