Gerrymandering

No Matter What Supreme Court Decides On Gay Marriage, Republican Party Is On Wrong Side Of History!

Ronald 29 Comments

The Supreme Court may decide to deal with the issue of gay marriage in a very narrow sense, rather than a broad sense, due to the possibility that Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito may influence Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy to join their side, as they do about 70 percent of the time.

But no matter what happens, the Republican Party will suffer, since the momentum of history is moving the nation toward acceptance of gay marriage, with young people having no problem accepting it, and senior citizens, a majority of whom oppose it, soon to be gone from the scene. And the Republican Party officeholders caving in to their conservative evangelical Christian base will marginalize them very soon.

It is interesting that Republicans NOT in office, more than 100 of them, have endorsed gay marriage, while only Ohio Senator Rob Portman has been willing, among Republican officeholders, to back the concept. So such hate mongers and extremists as Bryan Fischer, Gary Bauer, Ralph Reed, and Tony Perkins hold undue sway over the party, and the effect will be that the GOP will be unable to compete on an even basis for the Presidency and the Senate, although they may be able to hold on to the House of Representatives, due to gerrymandering which helps to set up rural districts that will continue to resist cultural change.

But again, in the long run of history, the Republican Party is painting itself into a corner, and burning their bridges behind them, as the population changes and social attitudes become more tolerant.

The Conservative Political Action Conference: A Bunch Of Retreads And Future Losers!

Ronald 10 Comments

Conservatives are in the third of four days of their annual Conservative Political Action Conference, and it is quite an event, a circus of retreads and future losers, who fail to see that the nation has rejected their ideology when it is presented to them in Senate races, and only holding on to power in the House of Representatives because of gerrymandered districts created by the Tea Party uprising of 2010, which led to a large number of Republican governors and state legislatures at the precisely correct time to affect the shaping of House districts for the ten year cycle following the census figures.

The Tea Party movement has had its heyday, and there are already signs of its future demise, although they will persist in some rural districts in the House, and have their Senators, including Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul, all ambitious to be President of the United States, but none of them should be delusional that they will actually be the next President, while they are all fighting to outdo each other three years ahead of 2016!

Attention at this conference is given to such retreads as Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, Paul Ryan, and Newt Gingrich.

Also, such losers as Wayne La Pierre, Grover Norquist and the usual right wing talk show hosts, including Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, are part of the “distinguished” speakers spewing forth their divisiveness.

And the conservatives are making clear that they will not budge in any form on the issue of gay rights, immigration reform,their “traditional” view of women being submissive to men, and refusal to separate science from the influence of religion!

There are differences on foreign policy between the libertarians and the neoconservatives, however, and any suggestion of moderation on ANY issue has led to Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell being denied an invitation to speak.

The ultimate reality is that it does not matter what happens at the CPAC, as it is like Don Quixote battling the windmill! The American people are NOT going to elect any of these “clowns”, even those who seem more “moderate”, such as Christie, to the White House in 2016. The Republicans are fighting a civil war, primarily over who shall represent them in 2016, but it is all for naught!

The next President will, assuredly, be a Democrat—whether Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo, Elizabeth Warren, Mark Warner, Amy Klobuchar or someone else not yet known!

The Republican Party Crisis: Does It Have A Future, Or Is It To Go Into The Dustbin Of History?

Ronald 4 Comments

As we enter the year 2013 in two days, the long term future of the Republican Party as a legitimate long term alternative to the Democratic Party is in dire threat of disappearing into the dustbin of history!

The Republican Party lost the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2012 in a sound repudiation, with Barack Obama soundly defeating Mitt Romney. The US Senate, with 23 of 33 seats up for election being Democratic seats, and expected to lose some seats, ended up winning 25 of the seats, gaining three seats and only losing Nebraska to the Republicans. The US House of Representatives, while remaining in Republican hands, saw a gain of ten House seats by the Democrats. If it was not for gerrymandering by many Republican state legislatures, the Democrats would have gained control, as they won more total votes nationally in House races than the Republicans.

So the GOP really was walloped, and yet the party seems unable to accept what happened, and have allowed themselves to be hijacked by extremist groups, including the Tea Party Movement, Americans For Tax Reform, right wing talk show hosts on radio and Fox News Channel, the National Rifle Association,The Koch Brothers and other millionaires and billionaires, right wing preachers, and anti immigrant nativists and anti women’s rights elements, therefore resisting the need to move back from the extreme right to the moderate center, where the party had many victories over the years as a more mainstream conservative alternative to the Democratic Party.

It is now a moment of reckoning, as the Republican Party is about to implode, as public opinion polls make clear that the party will be blamed if America goes off the “fiscal cliff”, and taxes go up on everyone, and ruthless spending cuts, which hurt the most needy and disadvantaged in our society, occur!

There is a possibility that the Republican Party will go into the dustbin of history, if they do not reform in time for the midterm elections of 2014, which could, ironically, lead to the demise of the party on its 160th anniversary, having been founded as a reform oriented party in 1854, replacing the Whig Party!

John Boehner and Mitch McConnell have a major burden to deal with as the New Year begins, and their own personal futures, as well as that of their party, is meeting the challenge of becoming what they once were, a mainstream centrist party that can appeal to the changing demographics of America, or be replaced by a modern day Whig Party, with statesmen and leaders on the model of Henry Clay and Daniel Webster, and former Whigs who started the Republican Party, such as Abraham Lincoln!

The Reality Of The Next Decade: Split Government Control!

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It is now clear that our political system is facing a long period, probably at least a decade, of split government control on the national level!

The Democratic Party has a long term edge with the electorate, as a result of the two Barack Obama Presidential victories, with the only difference being the loss in 2012 of Indiana and North Carolina.

But with the growing Hispanic and Latino population in Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, the likelihood of those states turning “blue’ from “red” over this decade, is becoming more likely, and with that manifestation, the Electoral College situation will become much more one sided than it is now, and yet still allow for some states to wander over to the other side without affecting a Democratic victory for the White House.

Additionally, with the surprise gain in seats by the Democrats in the US Senate, only losing one state, Nebraska, and gaining Maine, Massachusetts, and Indiana in return, and more Republican seats up for reelection in 2014, the likelihood of the Senate staying majority Democratic for the long term, continues to grow.

However, with the gerrymandering of seats by Republican legislatures and Governors in 2010, even though the Democrats won more votes for the US House of Representatives, the Republicans were able to hold on to the majority, although reduced by about eight seats. The Democrats will have trouble gaining 17 seats or more because of the gerrymandering, and even if they do gain a slight edge, could easily lose it two or four years after winning the majority.

So the likelihood of a Democratic President, Democratic Senate, and a Republican House becomes more a normal situation until at least the next reapportionment of seats after the 2020 Census, and the Presidential and Congressional Elections of that year, but with the advantage that 2020 is a Presidential year, while 2010 was not.

So this means the odds of a long range stalemate and gridlock in American politics are clear cut!

Paul Ryan: Still Delusional And Lying, And A Negative For His Party In The Future!

Ronald 1 Comment

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, the Vice Presidential nominee on Mitt Romney’s ticket, and the chairman of the House Budget Committee, has learned nothing from the results of the Presidential Election of 2012.

He has said that he was stunned at the loss of the Romney-Ryan ticket, which shows just how delusional he really is.

He has said that the Ryan plan to privatize Medicare was a good plan that had support, forgetting that it is clear that his ideas were one of the major problems for Romney in gaining support. Ryan added nothing positive to the campaign, except for his good looks and his emphasis on physical fitness, sorry to say!

Ryan also said that Barack Obama did not have a mandate, because the Democrats did not win the House of Representatives. But he fails to point out that the Democrats actually gained more popular votes nationally for the House, but were faced with gerrymandered districts because of many states having Republican control of the state legislatures and the Governorship, due to the Tea Party wins in many states in 2010. Sadly, this will make it difficult for the Democrats to win enough seats for the majority throughout this decade, although the margin of Republican control is down from 25 to 17 seats.

So the likelihood is divided government throughout this decade, with Democrats having the upper hand in the Presidency and the Senate, but the Republicans having the edge in the House of Representatives.

Also, Ryan’s claim that because his party controls the House, therefore the President does not have a mandate, is totally preposterous, as Richard Nixon had an opposition Congress all the way through his time in office, and Ronald Reagan had a split Congress for six years, with a Democratic House and Republican Senate, but both claimed a mandate.

So Paul Ryan is flailing in the wind, without any arguments that make sense, but still with the potential to make trouble for Barack Obama over the next four years. But the more trouble he makes, the more the GOP will be weakened nationally for the White House and the Senate in the next four years!

The Supreme Court’s Political Impact On The 2012 Presidential And Congressional Elections

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The Supreme Court has decided to intervene and settle three controversial issues that are key factors in the 2012 Presidential and Congressional Elections.

They have taken on the case of the Obama Health Care law; the Arizona Immigration legislation; and the Texas Congressional Redistricting case, all of which have a much greater impact than just the specific details of the cases on their own.

If the Health Care legislation is declared unconstitutional , it will create chaos in the health care field, as parts of the law are already in effect.

If the decision on the Arizona law regarding illegal immigration favors that state, it will create the danger of further spreading of such actions all over, and create new civil liberties issues for the foreign born in this country, and weaken the power of the federal government over immigration, which has always been a national responsibility.

If the decision is to back Texas redistricting, which is seen as unfair gerrymandering, and an attempt to weaken Hispanic and Latino influence in Texas, as well as unfair advantage for the Republican Party over the Democratic Party in that state, then it will reverberate elsewhere.

These three cases are crucial for the future of our political, social and economic system, and will be among the most significant cases of recent times in Supreme Court history.

The reality that the Court could go too far to the right is a long term troubling matter, and also brings to the forefront the importance of who is President in 2013 and after, as the likelihood of Supreme Court replacements grows in the next term, with one to three replacements possible, and determining the long term future direction of the Supreme Court.

The cases also highlight the importance, again, of Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, considered the “swing” vote on a Court equally divided between Left and Right!

So to say that the Supreme Court does not get involved in politics is, very clearly, a misunderstanding of our system of government!

Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich: “Carpetbagger” In Washington State?

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With reapportionment of seats about to take place in the House Of Representatives, based on the census figures, some states are gaining seats, while others are losing seats.

The Sun Belt is gaining seats, as they have done every decade since the 1950s, while the Frost Belt Northeast and Midwestern states, specifically the large ones, are losing seats.

This leads to some House members being gerrymandered into races against fellow members of the House of the same party, leaving the reality that some will be pushed out of their positions either by primary elections, or by reality setting in that they cannot compete in a primary or election in the new district and have a good chance of victory.

Such a circumstance is now faced by Cleveland Congressman Dennis Kucinich, one of the most liberal and most controversial Democrats in Congress.

Kucinich, who was Mayor of Cleveland, acquiring the name “Dennis the Menace”; member of the Cleveland City Council later; and then has been a Congressman from Cleveland for eight terms, is faced with elimination unless he chooses to move somewhere else in another state which is gaining seats.

Kucinich, a national figure because of having competed for the Presidency in 2004 and 2008, was recently in the Seattle area of Washington State, which will gain a seat, trying to measure whether it was a good fit for a Congressional race, with Seattle being a progressive stronghold.

While it is required that a member of the House of Representatives must have a residence in the district he or she represents, in the year of reapportionment, the member can move into the district AFTER he or she has been elected, as often, even for members who keep their congressional seat, the boundaries have changed because of reapportionment, so new housing arrangements must be made, but it can be AFTER being elected to the new district seat.

The question is whether it is proper for Kucinich to do what he plans to do, and the answer is yes!

Why is that? Well, Washington State does not have a residency requirement in the state for someone to run for public office, much like New York State, which has had three non residents or “Carpetbaggers” run for and win a Senate seat–Robert Kennedy in 1964, James Buckley in 1970, and Hillary Clinton in 2000.

While there is no recent case of a “Carpetbagger” Congressman, it is not illegal or a first time situation, and what it all comes down to is that this is based on democracy! What the people of that particular new Congressional district in Seattle want, they are entitled to get. If the case can be made by a native Washingtonian that he or she should be elected over a well known Congressman from Cleveland, Ohio, it will rule the day!

The word “Carpetbagger”, originating as a derogatory term in the Reconstruction South, should not be looked at in such a manner, as even most of the so called “Carpetbaggers” in the Southern states, who were Congressmen, Senators, or Governors, actually performed well in office, and the term is therefore just political propaganda to be ignored as a myth of American history!

The Governors: Key To Reapportionment Battles For The Next Decade!

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While so much attention has been addressed to the US Senate and House races this election year, the voters’ choices of 37 Governors are crucial for the long term health, or lack of it, of the two major political parties for the next decade!

This is due to the fact that the Governors will have the major input to the approval of reapportionment plans in the states for seats in the US House of Representatives, as well as state legislative districts.

Even if the state legislature is controlled by one party, if the Governor in office in 2011 is of the opposition party, it can have a dramatic effect on how the districts are gerrymandered, and can determine fortunes politically for the next ten years!

This is particularly significant in large states such as Texas, California, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Washington, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York, among others.

So the state governorship races require more analysis than would be often imagined, because of their effect on the national political scene!

The Governorships And State Legislatures: A Crucial Year For Both Political Parties!

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The elections in 37 states this November for the office of Governor, as well as the state legislative battles raging across the country, will have a very powerful effect on the fortunes of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party for the next decade, as this is the year of the census figures, and reapportionment of seats for the House of Representatives and the state legislatures will be determined over the next two years by the election results!

The party that controls the state legislature can use the practice of gerrymandering to set district lines to favor their party for the next decade! In a sense, redistricting allows leaders to choose their voters, instead of voters choosing their leaders! 🙁

The Republican Party is seen as favored to gain more by likely control of more state legislatures, with an estimate of gaining at least ten chambers this fall, which could give them the power to redraw up to 25 congressional districts!

At this point, the Democrats have the advantage, controlling 27 states to 14 for the GOP, with eight states having divided legislatures! But the momentum is against them in this round of such crucial elections!

However, the governorships are also a factor, as a governor can veto redistricting plans of the state legislature, and force the issue into extended court suits, if the Governor is of the party opposite of the legislative majorities!

So although there are 50 states, the larger states with more Congressional members have a greater role, and in those states, the Governorship races are therefore more crucial for both parties to win! Certainly, the most important states would thus include California, Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Georgia, the top nine states, and all of these are battlegrounds, except possibly New York, where Andrew Cuomo is a heavy favorite to overcome either of his Republican opponents!

So the state races, both for the Governorship and the legislative balance, matter greatly, even more this year than usual!