Herbert Hoover

America With 23.4 Percent Effective Unemployment Rate, Likely To Reach Or Surpass All Time High Of Early 1933 By End Of May!

Ronald 16 Comments

The official unemployment rate reported this week is 14.3 percent, but that is not reality!

It does not not include the last two weeks of unemployment applications, as a result of the CoronaVirus Pandemic.

There are now, officially, 36.5 million unemployed people, and with a working population of about 156 million people, that means, using basic math, that the actual unemployment rate in mid May is 23.4 percent, just a point and a half lower than the all time high of 24.9 percent in February 1933, the worst moments of the Great Depression before Herbert Hoover handed over power to Franklin D. Roosevelt!

it is clear that as soon as another 2.5 million Americans file for unemployment this week or next, the unemployment rate will be at 25 percent or more, an all time high in American history!

Donald Trump More Desperate By The Day, As Every Poll Shows Him Losing Massively!

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Public Opinion Polls have been amazingly consistent in 2020, with even Fox News Channel Polls showing Donald Trump losing badly.

His horrific reaction to the CoronaVirus Pandemic is sealing his fate, if there was ever any doubt.

It is not that Joe Biden is a perfect candidate, but he is the alternative, and his empathy, compassion, authenticity and decency shine through, and always has.

Donald Trump is the new Herbert Hoover, without his intelligence, ability, and life accomplishments.

But the Pandemic and the highest unemployment rate since Hoover left office 87 years ago insure a major repudiation of the 45th President!

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

Ronald 33 Comments

With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!


Six And A Half Months To Most Crucial Presidential Election Since 1940

Ronald 5 Comments

We are facing this November the fifth most crucial Presidential election in American history.

Every Presidential election matters, of course, and in the midst of each campaign, there are those who will think it is the most important event ever to occur.

But in reality, the number of times that an election has been truly “crucial” is limited to what this author and blogger believes are only a few times.

Those few elections that have been crucial to the extreme would include, chronologically the following:

Election of 1860, a four way race, with the Civil War seen as on the horizon, and Abraham Lincoln winning with only 39.8 percent of the vote, over Stephen Douglas, John C. Breckinridge, and John Bell.

Election of 1864, in which Lincoln defeated former General George McClellan, at a crucial time in the Civil War.

Election of 1932, in which the nation was at its lowest economic point in history, with the failure of Herbert Hoover, and the alternative of Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal.

Election of 1940, when America faced the danger of Fascism in the world, but isolationism reigned, and Franklin D. Roosevelt faced a businessman with no government experience, Wendell Willkie, as the world was engaged in World War II.

Now, in 2020, we face a CoronaVirus Pandemic; a collapsed economy worse than any time since the Great Depression; and a crazed, dangerous President who should have been removed from office for abuse of power, and instead is, effectively, taking the nation over the brink of the cliff that it is facing at this time!

So just as Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt came to the rescue, each of them twice, now Joe Biden and his female running mate face the challenge of the greatest crisis in 80 years, and we have to hope he can gather the strength, courage, and decisiveness of Lincoln, FDR, and other great Presidents, including Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama in difficult moments in their Presidencies!

75th Anniversary Of Death Of FDR: A President We Need Desperately Now In 2020 And Into 2021!

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Today is the 75th Anniversary of the death of the greatest 20th Century President, Franklin D. Roosevelt!

Other than Abraham Lincoln, no President matches the significance and impact of FDR!

Of course, there are naysayers, and as a scholar and author of a book on the New Deal, and having taught about FDR and the New Deal for decades, it is clear that there were faults and shortcomings in the FDR record in both domestic and foreign policy!

But the reality is that FDR came to office at the worst time since the Civil War, and while the Great Depression did not end until World War II, millions were helped by FDR New Deal policies, and he saved the nation from total collapse, as was happening under his predecessor, Herbert Hoover.

A person such as FDR is needed now, at a time when the situation is the worst for America since the Great Depression and World War II!

The question is can Joe Biden be the savior for the next four years, since he will be 78 two weeks after the Presidential Election of 2020.

Many will see Joe Biden as having possible signs of dementia, but this blogger and author has observed and listened to him, and while he has his “moments” of sounding a bit silly or clueless, can anyone really say that Donald Trump sounds less silly or clueless?

In fact, Trump daily seems much more dangerous, as his personality and viewpoints on all issues domestic and foreign, is horrific!

And if one looks back at Lincoln and FDR, Lincoln had definite issues with depression and circulatory issues with his health, and FDR had polio and bouts with poor health in his last few years. And yet, they both led brilliantly under the strains of their times!

Biden has elements of decency, compassion, sincerity, humanity, empathy, and a genuinely kind personality, and he has always been this way. Joe is loved by many because he is real, not a phony. That does not mean everything he has ever said or done is perfect, far from it!

But elections are choices, and Joe is far superior to Donald Trump in personality, but also in experience, knowledge, work ethic, and willingness be considerate in what he utters and actions he takes!

And let’s face it, either Biden or Trump could become incapacitated or die during the next term, as it has been a long time, nearly six decades since a President died, and five decades since a President left office during a term. This is longer than at any time in American history since 1841 to 1974, when we had a total of eight Presidential deaths and one Presidential resignation, so in a sense, we are overdue.

So the key issue is not whether either Biden nor Trump make it to the end of the term, but rather does one prefer a woman VP or Mike Pence to be the 47th President of the United States, which may be the end result sometime during the term!

Any sane, decent person would say the former would be preferable!

Crisis Management: Trump Far Worse Than James Buchanan And Herbert Hoover! Time For Mike Pence To Step In!

Ronald 4 Comments

Donald Trump will go down as the absolutely worst Crisis Manager in American Presidential history!

Before now, it would be a tie between James Buchanan at the time of the pending Civil War in 1860 and Herbert Hoover at the time of the highest unemployment in the Great Depression in 1932!

But even they were not as undignified and self serving as Donald Trump, who is still more obsessed with his self image, and fails to show any concern about the massive loss of life which is coming to America from the CoronaVirus Pandemic, far more than any other nation, but no real concerted action occurring!

By all rights, Donald Trump has again failed in leadership for the umpteenth time, and should resign and let Vice President Mike Pence take over as the 46th President!

Never has a new President succeeded so late in the term, as Lyndon B. Johnson succeeded near the end of the third year, upon John F. Kennedy’s assassination in November 1963, three weeks less than a year to the election.

But Pence would have the opportunity, if he chose to be a true leader, to change policy, and possibly save the Republican Party, although it is hard to imagine that he could win a full term.

Instead, at this point with seven months to the election, and about nine and a half months to the inauguration, he could gain a reputation as having worked to save the nation, as much as possible, while unable to have his own term.

One has to believe that in his heart of hearts, Mike Pence knows that Trump is a disaster, and should resign!

It is time for Mike Pence to think of the nation, not himself, and pressure Trump to leave, or utilize the 25th Amendment, pushing the cabinet majority to back him, in a last ditch effort to save the nation from the worst that is coming!

Economic Downturns And American Presidential Elections In History

Ronald 49 Comments

With the sudden, rapid decline in the economy, caused by the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the odds of Donald Trump winning reelection in November 2020 has dramatically declined!

Economic Downturns ALWAYS lead to defeat of Presidents running for reelection, as witness the following examples:

Martin Van Buren–Panic of 1837, loses in 1840.

James Buchanan–Panic of 1857–chose not to run for reelection, but Republican party opposition won in 1860 with Abraham Lincoln.

Ulysses S. Grant–Panic of 1873, Republican successor to Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, lost by massive margin of 250,000 votes in 1876 election, but won a disputed Electoral College vote over Democrat Samuel Tilden.

Benjamin Harrison–Panic of 1893 (evident in late 1892), loses in 1892.

Herbert Hoover–Great Depression (1929 and after), loses in 1932.

Jimmy Carter–Recession of 1980, loses in 1980.

George H W Bush–Recession of 1992, loses in 1992.

John McCain–Great Recession 2008-2009, successor Republican candidate for George W. Bush, loses in 2008.

America On The Verge Of A Second “Great Depression”, All Caused By Donald Trump’s Ignorance, Stupidity, And Corruption!

Ronald 19 Comments

It is hard to believe, but America is on the verge of a Second “Great Depression”, all caused by Donald Trump’s ignorance and stupidity!

America had 123 million population in 1930, as the Great Depression under Herbert Hoover began.

Now in 2020, it is 330 million, so more than 200 million people higher, about 270 percent higher.

This coming Great Depression is likely to last as long as the first Great Depression, a decade or more, as even the Great Recession of 2008 continued to reverberate for at least another five years after that.

We already have poverty and deprivation much too prevalent BEFORE this event, and now it will get much worse!

The possibility of widespread violence and bloodshed, in a population much more diverse than it was in 1930, and with the much greater prevalence of firearms, at least equal to the population numbers, is a totally terrifying prospect!

And to learn that the wealthy want ever more tax cuts, as their greed and selfishness continues to grow, is totally outrageous. They need to give up much of the Trump, Bush II, and Reagan tax cuts they gained undeservedly in the past four decades, while the middle class deteriorated, and the the number of poor, homeless, and hungry people escalated!

The stupidity and bias of millions of Americans who thought Donald Trump was a savior, and the involvement of Fox News Channel, Conservative Talk Radio, and the Evangelical Christian right pastors and ministers in backing the corruption and venality of Donald Trump is infuriating! His corrupt collaborators in Congress and the judiciary is also a total repudiation of the American people and their welfare!

There has to be a place in Hell for all of these perpetrators who have no ethics, morals, conscience, or scruples!

Donald Trump Insured Of Being Ranked Worst President Ever, As He Totally Fails In Crisis Management!

Ronald 21 Comments

The issue of Crisis Management is a crucial one in judging Presidential leadership, as what matters more than that in judging a President, or a governor of a state or a mayor of a city, all executive positions where the population depends on the abilities, skills, compassion, and empathy of such leaders.

So on that factor alone, Donald Trump is insured of being ranked the worst President ever, as he totally has failed in the present CoronaVirus Crisis, which may end up considered the greatest crisis since the Great Depression, World War II, and the Civil War!

Franklin Pierce and James Buchanan were unable to handle the issue of division between the North and the South over slavery in the 1850s, helping to lead to the Civil War.

Ulysses S. Grant and Warren G. Harding were totally incompetent in dealing with the issue of political corruption in the 1870s and the early 1920s.

Herbert Hoover was unable to resolve the crisis of the Great Depression in the early 1930s, as economic conditions worsened every month.

Andrew Johnson in the 1860s, Richard Nixon in the 1970s, and George W. Bush in the 2000s presided over governments that were highly inept and corrupt in so many ways.

But Donald Trump has been horrendous in all these way—inability to unite the nation in a crisis as with Franklin Pierce and James Buchanan; personally engaged in corruption in a wider way than Ulysses S. Grant, Warren G. Harding, and Richard Nixon; disastrous policies on so many issues as with George W. Bush; and total ineptitude in a difficult time in national life, as with Andrew Johnson and Herbert Hoover.

So Trump, without any debate possible, will rank as the absolute worst President we have ever seen in American history! Let us hope that the nation will overcome the CoronaVirus epidemic in decent shape, without too much loss of life, and that no foreign foe takes advantage of our weaknesses to present a threat on the scale of September 11. 2001 or December 7, 1941!

Eleven Presidents With Compassion And Empathy, And Eleven Presidents Who Had Neither

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Since today is Presidents Day, this author and blogger is posting two entries after the one yesterday, to commemorate the holiday.

So here is the second entry today, and the third and last entry to celebrate Presidents Day!

The most important traits that any President should have, but many do not, is compassion and empathy.

There are Presidents who have compassion and empathy as very clear parts of their personalities, and there are those who have absolutely no such compassion or empathy, making them uncaring and harsh in personality.

A list of eleven Presidents WITH compassion and empathy would include the following in chronological order:

John Quincy Adams

Abraham Lincoln

James A. Garfield

Theodore Roosevelt

Franklin D. Roosevelt

Harry Truman

John F. Kennedy

Lyndon B. Johnson

Jimmy Carter

Bill Clinton

Barack Obama

Those eleven Presidents who most lacked compassion and empathy chronologically would include:

John Adams

Thomas Jefferson

Andrew Jackson

John Tyler

Andrew Johnson

Woodrow Wilson

Herbert Hoover

Richard Nixon

Ronald Reagan

George W. Bush

Donald Trump

Debate and discussion on this and the earlier two entries is welcome!