Hillary Clinton

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

Ronald 33 Comments

With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!


Donald Trump The Ultimate Loser, As His “Beloved Economy” Is In Tatters, And He Gets Joe Biden, The Candidate He Most Feared, As His Opponent In November

Ronald 2 Comments

Donald Trump has seen his dreams of a second term dwindling dramatically with his “beloved economy”, brought about by Barack Obama, in the greatest economic recovery in American history, now in tatters, and making him a President with an economic collapse that will not end magically in a few months. And never has a President in an economic downturn won reelection, never!

Trump got himself impeached over trying to prevent Joe Biden from becoming the Democratic nominee against him, since he fears him more than anyone else, and now he is stuck with Joe Biden as his opponent in November!

He will discover that Joe Biden will be a much tougher opponent than Hillary Clinton, and once Biden picks his woman running mate, the campaign will be on in force!

So it is time for Joe Biden to announce soon who his Vice Presidential nominee will be, and doing it sooner, rather than later, will enliven the campaign, even before the national conventions this summer!

As America Goes Into Panic Mode, Tonight Is The Joe Biden-Bernie Sanders Debate!

Ronald 2 Comments

As America goes into panic mode, with the totally disastrous handling of the CoronaVirus Crisis by Donald Trump, tonight is the Joe Biden-Bernie Sanders debate on CNN, the last real opportunity for Sanders to attempt to overcome Joe Biden’s lead that was gained in the past two weeks of primaries in 20 states, with Biden winning 15 of the 20 contests.

Already, there are indications that many Bernie Sanders supporters will refuse to back Joe Biden, as many refused to back Hillary Clinton in 2016, contributing to the disastrous Donald Trump Presidency this past three years.

Even without the extremist Bernie supporters who act like children, not adults, insisting on what they want despite the vote of those who engaged in the primaries, Joe Biden seems to have gained independent, moderate Republican, suburbanites, white working class men, women, African Americans, and Latino support that can overcome the prima donnas, who are ready to destroy the ship if they cannot get what they want!

It will be crucial that Joe Biden perform well tonight to overcome the propaganda that he is demented, when we have a dangerous demented and corrupt President.

It is crucial, however, that no matter whether Biden or Sanders end up as the Democratic nominee, that an exceptional Vice President is chosen, as it is likely that either of them might not be able to finish the next term, just as it is likely that even Trump, if reelected, might not last to the end of the term in January 2025.

So the real choice this time is the Democratic VP successor or Mike Pence, and that should be a no-brainer!

Harry Truman, “The Buck Stops Here”, And Presidential Responsibility For Failures Historically

Ronald 7 Comments

President Harry Truman had a sign on his desk: “The Buck Stops Here!”, as Truman made it clear if a government policy went wrong, it was the responsibility of the President of the United States to take responsibility for the failure, and attempt to learn from it.

Since then, a number of Presidents have admitted failure, including John F. Kennedy in the Bay of Pigs fiasco involving Cuba in 1961; and Jimmy Carter in the attempted rescue of American hostages in Iran in 1980.

But Donald Trump refuses to take any responsibility on the CoronaVirus Crisis mishandling, instead placing the blame on the news media, liberals, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and others.

For that alone, Donald Trump should be forced out of office pronto as a total disaster!

His stupidity and that of Vice President Mike Pence, who rejects science, is further shown by fact that neither had been tested for the virus, despite contact with people who have it. Now, this morning, we get the news that finally Trump has had the test, and is awaiting results.

And at the press conference yesterday with business leaders, everyone went around shaking hands, something the American people are warned NOT to do!

It is as if the top government leaders and corporate leaders who met with them think they are untouchable, and they are sending the wrong message to the American people, and particularly to crazy Trump supporters who think he is God personified!

Tonight’s South Carolina Democratic Presidential Debate A Turning Point

Ronald 26 Comments

It is clear that Tuesday night’s CBS South Carolina Democratic Presidential debate is a turning point, as Senator Bernie Sanders will have the tremendous advantage if he wins the South Carolina Primary this Saturday.

Sanders is self destructing, however, with his inability to stop praising Cuba under Fidel Castro, and the Chinese government of President Xi Jinping, ignoring their violations of human rights, while improving education and health care.

Sanders seems totally deaf to warnings that he must repudiate his past extreme leftist views on Nicaragua and the Soviet Union in the 1980s, as that is a guarantee to cause the loss of Florida at the least, and likely cause the industrial Midwest and the Southwest to run away from his candidacy, if he is the Democratic nominee for President.

How Sanders could win states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, is impossible to conceive.

Also, any hope of winning Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and come within striking distance of Texas, would be totally gone with a Sanders Presidential candidacy.

And Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada could be in danger, as well as New Hampshire and Virginia, all won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

And this is without addressing the “democratic Socialism” label that Sanders embraces, and his unwillingness to fully explain how all of his ambitious programs, which sound great on paper, could possibly be achieved through Congressional action.

The importance of the federal judiciary and the Supreme Court is at stake, and the nation cannot afford more right wing judges and Justices if Donald Trump is reelected.

Hopefully, we will see moderates unite around one candidate to oppose Sanders after Super Tuesday next week, with the best bet now seeming to be Pete Buttigieg, unless Joe Biden has a major rehabilitation by voters in South Carolina and the 14 states of Super Tuesday.

Strong Possibility That Democrats Will Have A Tumultuous National Convention, Reminding Us Of 1968

Ronald 9 Comments

There is a growing feeling that the Democratic Party will be divided all the way to the national convention in the second week of July in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Neither the progressive nor moderate wings seem likely to be able to gather enough delegates to lock up the nomination before July, as things now stand.

The Nevada Caucuses, South Carolina Primary, the 14 states on Super Tuesday, and 10 other states in the two weeks following Super Tuesday, might decide, but no certainty at this time.

The longer the struggle goes on, the more likely, horrible to say, that Donald Trump COULD win reelection, and destroy the Constitution and rule of law, making it impossible to recoup the damage that has been done during these three years of his Presidency.

The last time the Democrats were totally divided was 1968, and it led to the victory of Richard Nixon over a good, competent, decent man, Hubert Humphrey, who would have been far better than Nixon was.

The question remains: who is best equipped to win the Midwest, the area that had Hillary Clinton won, Donald Trump would not be President today, creating a constitutional crisis never ending!

New Hampshire Primary: Moderates Dominate, And Joe Biden And Elizabeth Warren In Free Fall

Ronald 29 Comments

The New Hampshire Primary results are in, and the winners are Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, who together won 44 percent of the vote, compared to Bernie Sanders winning 25.7 percent, only about 3,700 votes ahead of Buttigieg, who had 24.4 percent of the vote on his own.

Even if you add Elizabeth Warren’s poor showing, 9.2 percent of the vote to Sanders’ total, the moderates clearly won, even not including Joe Biden’s embarrassing 5th place finish, with 8.4 percent of the vote.

It is clear that both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are in free fall, and if they do not do well in Nevada and South Carolina, and on Super Tuesday on March 3, they are done as candidates, and it is likely down to Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and the likelihood that Michael Bloomberg may do well on Super Tuesday, after spending about $300 million on advertising so far.

Tom Steyer, Deval Patrick, and Tulsi Gabbard remain technically in the race, which is down to just nine candidates, after Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet withdrew last night.

No one thought that Buttigieg and Klobuchar would get this far as survivors, and the sense is that one or the other, or both as a team, might very well be the Democratic ticket for 2020, two Midwestern candidates, who could, in theory, accomplish what Hillary Clinton could not do in 2016, win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and potentially, even Ohio and Iowa, enough to win the White House!

Winners Of The New Hampshire ABC Democratic Presidential Debate: The Moderates

Ronald 5 Comments

The clear cut winners of last night’s New Hampshire ABC Democratic Presidential debate were the moderates, in the following order:

Pete Buttigieg

Amy Klobuchar

Joe Biden

All three gave a very strong performance, and the odds now of Mayor Pete and Amy Klobuchar becoming an eventual team as President and Vice President has grown.

The fact that both are from the Midwest is very important, since that is the area of the nation that, had Hillary Clinton won there in 2016, we would not have the unending nightmare of Donald Trump!

The fact that there would be a 21 plus year difference in age, with the Vice President being the older part of the ticket, is no big deal, as Joe Biden was 19 years older than Barack Obama, and the team of the two of them worked very well.

It must be said that Joe Biden had his best performance, but a younger combination is better for the nation long term, with the potential for two terms moving ahead.

Nancy Pelosi Will Be Ranked One Of All Time Greatest Speakers Of The House, As Well As Most Powerful Woman In American History

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Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is assured a ranking as one of the all time greatest Speakers of the House, as well as the most powerful woman in American history.

She will rank in the category of Sam Rayburn, Thomas “Tip” O’Neill, Henry Clay, John W. McCormack, Nicholas Longworth, Champ Clark, Thomas Reed, Thomas Foley, James K. Polk, and Joseph Cannon. She is already 11th longest serving, and if she remains as Speaker through 2022, her planned date for retirement, she will be 5th longest serving, only behind Sam Rayburn, Henry Clay, Thomas “Tip” O’Neill, and John W. McCormack.

At the age of 79, with her birthday being March 26, she will become the oldest Speaker in American history on February 5, 2020, when she surpasses Sam Rayburn, who died 51 days before his 80th birthday. So she will reach 80 in March, very alert, competent, and totally in charge, and President Donald Trump is very much afraid of her, like he has never been of any other woman.

Understand that Nancy Pelosi is the most powerful woman in American history in her position, two heartbeats away from the Presidency. The highest ranking women otherwise have been multiple Secretaries of State–Madeleine Albright, Condoleezza Rice, and Hillary Clinton, all four heartbeats away from the Presidency. There has also been four Supreme Court Justices—Sandra Day O’Connor, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sonia Sotomayor, and Elena Kagan. Additionally, there were two prospective Vice Presidents–Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin. But that is the list, a short list, and only Nancy Pelosi has reached the pinnacle of power, and at a time of a challenge of a corrupt President, who would love to have absolute power, but has been stopped dead in his tracks by the woman from San Francisco!

The 2010s: 15 Major Events Which Had An Impact

Ronald 29 Comments

We are ending a decade in nine days from today, although technically a decade begins with a “1”, not a zero, but to most people, the fact that the number changes from “1” to “2” as the first digit, marks it as a new decade.

So looking back ten years, what are the major events in public affairs that have had an impact?

In no special order, here are the most significant events of the past decade:

The “Arab Spring”, which led to turmoil in the Middle East, and led to civil war and massive bloodshed in the area, but ultimately being overcome by authoritarian leaders and conditions of anarchy and chaos.

The passage of the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare), accomplished in the second year of the Obama Presidency.

The death of Al Qaeda terrorist leader Osama bin Laden, after avoiding capture for nearly ten years.

The election of Pope Francis by the Catholic Church, having a massive impact on Catholic doctrine, and liberalizing the church’s doctrines and teachings.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, leading to sanctions against Russia by the US and many European nations, and leading to Vladimir Putin working to undermine western democracies for the remainder of the decade.

The rise of the terrorist group ISIS (ISIL), which controlled large portions of Iraq and Syria, and engaged in massive abuses and tortures and executions, eventually mostly overcome by efforts of European nations and the United States.

The candidacy and election of Donald Trump to the Presidency, despite his divisive rhetoric and elements of nativism, racism, and misogyny.

Gay Marriage decision of the Supreme Court, a revolutionary change in American society.

Restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba, after five and a half decades of total isolation.

The massive tragedies of gun violence in schools, theaters, churches, synagogues, nightclubs, open air concerts, shopping malls and supermarkets, with no attempt to address the issue due to the power of the National Rifle Association over Congress and President Donald Trump.

Russian intervention in the Presidential Election of 2016, helping to secure the victory of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College, while losing the popular vote by 2.85 million votes, largest loss of popular vote of an Electoral College winner in American history.

The effects of the “Me Too” movement of women exposing sexual harassment against prominent public figures, causing many to lose their careers and reputations.

The horrendous policy of separating migrant children from their families at the southern border with Mexico and Central America, causing great condemnation of the Trump Administration.

The Robert Mueller investigation of the Trump Presidential campaign, and the Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2018, leading to the impeachment of Donald Trump after exposure of the Ukraine Scandal.

The growing reality of climate change and global warming, with the US under Donald Trump refusing to keep the Paris Accord of 2015 on goals for lowering of carbon emissions.