Hillary Clinton

14 Weeks Until First Vote In Iowa Caucuses

Ronald 4 Comments

As the House of Representatives is working on its impeachment inquiry involving President Donald Trump, the political calendar is starting to close in on many Democratic Presidential contenders.

It is now only 14 weeks until the first Americans vote on 2020, with the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday, February 3.

Iowa is not truly decisive on who wins the nomination and the Presidency in either major political party, as the only times that Iowa was a sign of the future was when an incumbent President was not on the ballot, and even then, not very often.

Democratic Party

Walter Mondale in 1984

Al Gore in 2000

John Kerry in 2004

Barack Obama in 2008

Hillary Clinton in 2016

George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 1992 failed to win Iowa.

Republican Party

Gerald Ford in 1976

Bob Dole in 1996

George W. Bush in 2000

Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Donald Trump in 2016 failed to win Iowa.

So only George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008 won Iowa and went on to win the Presidency in the fall of those years.

So do not expect that who wins Iowa will automatically be the nominee for the Democrats in November 2020.

Since 1972, Iowa has been accurate on the Democratic nominee 43 percent of the time, and 50 percent accurate on the Republican nominee.

Iowa is not representative of the nation in its population mix, but it gives a leg up to a few of the candidates, while dashing the hopes of so many others.

Alternative Candidates Who Might Enter The Democratic Presidential Race

Ronald 8 Comments

Hard to believe, but rumors are spreading that there could be alternative candidates who might enter the Democratic Presidential race.

These would include:

2016 Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton

Former First Lady Michelle Obama

Former 2004 Presidential nominee John Kerry

Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg

Former Attorney General Eric Holder

Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown

Most of these ideas are totally preposterous.

It is time for Hillary Clinton to pass the torch finally, and make an unequivocal statement she will not run, as she would divide the party and the nation in such a way that would be totally destructive.

Michelle Obama is not going to run, too smart to consider it.

John Kerry is another too old nominee, who is from the distant past, 2004 as a Presidential candidate, and would be 77 when taking the oath, and the last thing we need is another old candidate.

The same goes for Michael Bloomberg, who would five months younger than Bernie Sanders and nine months older than Joe Biden, and would be one month short of 79 in January 2021, too old, and really too divisive with his record as NYC Mayor, and not loyal to the Democratic Party.

Eric Holder and Deval Patrick would only create more racial division, with Cory Booker and Kamala Harris and Julian Castro already in the race, and Holder highly controversial and being 70 the day after the inauguration, and Deval Patrick just another Massachusetts politician, but with no real constituency to run.

If any candidate deciding to run makes sense, it just might be Sherrod Brown, who considered running, and would be a strong competitor from Ohio, but if he is to run, time is of the essence. He would be 68 at the time of the inauguration, and might be a good Vice Presidential choice instead of for the Presidency.

But except for Brown, really, the next Democratic Presidential nominee needs to come from the present, rapidly dwindling list, and dreaming of alternatives needs to end!

The Two Democrats Who Might Replace Joe Biden, And Both Are From The Midwest Battleground

Ronald 11 Comments

Further thought and analysis on the Ohio Presidential debate of Tuesday makes this blogger and scholar believe that two Midwesterners–South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar—come out as the stars of the debate.

Both were very strong in promoting a moderate center left vision of the Democratic Party, which gives the party a better chance of success against Donald Trump.

Being from Indiana and Minnesota respectively gives either or both a better opportunity to contest the states lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016 by small margins.

So if Joe Biden slips, which seems very possible, both offer an equivalent vision of what Biden stands for, rather than the more leftist Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders.

There are still three and a half months to the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, so despite early indications that Biden, Warren, and Sanders have a dominant position, there is still time for alternatives, and the most likely, clearly, are Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

The Economy Over Character And Morality: The Typical Trump Supporter

Ronald 59 Comments

It is very disconcerting that a large percentage of Donald Trump supporters admit they do not like his tweets; wish he would stop uttering a lot of his controversial comments and promotion of divisiveness; and yet still support him, all because of the stock market being up, and their 401 Ks being better, and many wealthy people getting massive tax cuts.

So economics, the evil of money, dominates them, and if Trump takes us into a war; or is destroying environmental laws; or undermining consumer protections; or is flirting with authoritarian leaders; or is destroying our traditional alliances with democracies; or is threatening civil liberties and civil rights; or is mistreating migrant children and undermining their physical and emotional health long term; or is out to destroy all regulations of corporate practices; or is turning our court system back to the Gilded Age; or is working to destroy all the good that came out of the New Deal of FDR and the Great Society of LBJ; well, that is not important as long as one’s economic prosperity is greater.

The fact that the economy being in good shape is due to the amazing revival under Barack Obama, and would most certainly have continued under Hillary Clinton, is often denied by such people. And they clearly do not give a damn what happens to the nation, as long as they, personally, are doing well economically. Nothing else matters, as this is a case of ME, MYSELF and I, and nothing else.

So character and morality and the harm being done to America does not matter as long as one is economically better off personally, so to hell with what is good for America!

What could be more despicable than that? But remember, a similar mentality existed in Nazi Germany in the 1930s, and look what it led to!

Imagine A Female President And Vice President? It Is Possible!

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The thought that in the centennial year of the 19th Amendment (woman suffrage), we might elect a woman President and a woman Vice President, seems impossible, but indeed, it could happen.

Such a combination would be either Elizabeth Warren for President and Amy Klobuchar for Vice President, or Kamala Harris running for President with Klobuchar as her running mate.

All three women are much more qualified than many men who have in the past run for the nomination for President, and it would be inspirational to have two women, with real convictions and common decency and empathy, operating the executive branch of government.

It would also make up for the loss of Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College, and imagine Warren or Harris in debate with Donald Trump, and Klobuchar in debate with Mike Pence. Do not forget that both Harris and Klobuchar were prosecutors in California and Minnesota, and that Warren is no wallflower and would come out in full combat against Donald Trump, as much as either of the other two women candidates.

And realize that all three of the women candidates, were they to lose, would still keep their seats in the United States Senate.

It would be very refreshing to have a different perspective, and two honest, decent, qualified women cleaning up the mess created by men over recent years!

Which States Are Guaranteed To Vote For Donald Trump In 2020?

Ronald 4 Comments

Based on the percentages who voted for Donald Trump in the Presidential Election of 2016, the following is the list that will live and die with Donald Trump next year:

West Virginia 68 percent

Wyoming 67 percent

Oklahoma 65 percent

Nebraska 64 percent

North Dakota 63 percent

South Dakota 62 percent

Alabama 62 percent

Kentucky 62 percent

Arkansas 61 percent

Tennessee 61 percent

Idaho 59 percent

Louisiana 58 percent

Mississippi 58 percent

Alaska 57 percent

Kansas 57 percent

Indiana 57 percent

Missouri 57 percent

Montana 56 percent

South Carolina 55 percent

Utah is a special case, a Mormon dominated state, where Evan McMullin, the former CIA operative, a conservative, was able to win 22 percent of the vote, which when added to Donald Trump’s total (45 percent), meant more than 68 percent were against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

So if one adds these 20 states together, they add up to ONLY 125 electoral votes, meaning if Trump only won these 20 states, the Electoral College would be 413 for the Democratic Presidential nominee, a true landslide defeat for Donald Trump!

Note that these 20 states include 8 in the South; 5 in the Great Plains; 2 in the Midwest; and 5 in the West.

Joe Biden Pledges His Vice Presidential Running Mate Will Be A Woman Or Person Of Color

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In an interview with a group of African American journalists, former Vice President Joe Biden pledged that if he was to end up as the Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, he would select a Vice Presidential running mate who was either a woman or a person of color.

This is, if it indeed occurs, quite a revolutionary step, and it gives us the following list of potential Vice Presidential nominees:

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

Senator Kamala Harris of California

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey

Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro of Texas

Entrepreneur Andrew Yang of New York

Former Georgia Gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams of Georgia

It would seem highly unlikely that Elizabeth Warren would be asked or accept, and being the oldest potential nominee at age 71 in 2020, alongside Biden, who would be 78, is highly unlikely.

It also seems unlikely that Andrew Yang would be tapped, as he has no government experience.

Stacey Abrams was rumored months ago to be a potential Vice Presidential nominee, but without any state level executive experience or Congressional or other federal government experience, it would seem highly unlikely.

So the bet would seem to be either Amy Klobuchar, shoring up the Midwest support, which is crucial, or Julian Castro, with his mayoral experience in a large city in Texas, and his cabinet office experience. Also, Castro was on the short list for Hillary Clinton, and being that the Latino population is the largest minority in America, and that he has an inspiring story of growing up in poverty without a father present, makes him very appealing. Castro might also put Texas into play for the election.

Harris might not wish to be number 2 on the ticket, and there is no need for California to be concerned about in the election. And Cory Booker comes from the same Northeast as Biden, so seems highly unlikely to be selected, plus there already has been an African American male President, Barack Obama.

A Massive Economic Recession, Possibly Depression, Is On The Horizon, And Timing Is Crucial

Ronald 3 Comments

America has had its longest economic expansion in its history, more than 10 years, brought about under Barack Obama, and continuing under Donald Trump, but would have continued if Hillary Clinton had been inaugurated.

But what goes up must come down, the “gravity rule”, and Donald Trump has insured a future massive recession, maybe even a depression, by his insane policy on tariffs.

China is punishing us in the tariff wars, and Trump has lied to the American people about who suffers when such wars occur. It is NOT China, but American consumers, and American farmers, and this will lead to a massive revolt against Donald Trump 15 months from now.

If Trump studied history, he would know that two past Republican Presidents, Benjamin Harrison in 1892, and Herbert Hoover in 1932, suffered massive defeat as a result of the McKinley Tariff of 1890 and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930. It led to the Panic of 1893 and the Great Depression of 1929.

But Trump has no knowledge of history, or economics, or of any topic imaginable, as he is easily the most ignorant, clueless, and purely stupid President we have had, and makes Warren G. Harding and George W. Bush look like scholars by comparison.

The issue is WHEN the economic collapse will come, and hopefully, before the election, as if it happens after, and Donald Trump is reelected, he will do nothing to alleviate the worst aspects of the coming recession or depression, and will have four years to impoverish America further, and incite white working class people against women and minorities, who he will blame for his own shortcomings.

Open Civil War could come as a result, and lead to the total destruction of the Constitution and Bill of Rights, and the great American image as the beacon of freedom and democracy could be permanently destroyed.

So we must hope that the collapse, as painful as it is, will occur in time to lead to a massive defeat of Donald Trump, with a Democratic President coming in to save us, as with Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933 and Barack Obama in 2009.

The Best Performances In The First Debate: Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, Jay Inslee

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Last night’s first Democratic debate saw some definite winners:

Julian Castro

Elizabeth Warren

Jay Inslee

The biggest winner was former HUD Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who came across very strongly in competition with fellow Texas and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke on immigration and in his overall performance. He is someone that this author and blogger has been impressed with for a long time, and realize he was on the short list for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and might have made the difference in bringing out more Latino votes, had he been on the ticket. I think he can be considered now a major player, number 6 on the list, with the likelihood that funding and poll numbers will increase dramatically.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, the only major player in this first debate, also came across strongly, and very principled, but might have hurt herself by her moving closer to Bernie Sanders in competition for the far Left of the Democratic Party.

Washington State Governor Jay Inslee also impressed, with his strong stand on climate change, and his overall background record as an outstanding Governor, and his funding and poll numbers may also increase dramatically. And the Pacific Northwest deserves attention for the national ticket.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar also improved their image, but not to the extent of Castro and Inslee.

Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, much more moderate, also deserves some more respect and attention, but it will not be easy for him to gain traction as much as the five mentioned above.

The remaining four–Beto O’Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney—seem to be left behind as this author and blogger sees it.

Clearly, there are many different ways to look at any debate, and there will be plenty of analysis and evaluation in many different directions.

But at this point, I would say Julian Castro will soon join Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg as the top six of all.

We shall see soon whether any of the other six debating tonight join that group as a serious contender.

Reality: Candidates Ahead In Public Opinion Polls In Third Year Of Presidential Term Never Are The Nominees For President

Ronald 2 Comments

Public opinion polls have been notoriously inaccurate in the third year of a Presidential term in who would be the Presidential nominees of major parties the following year.

In 2003, Vermont Governor Howard Dean was the front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but John Kerry ended up as the nominee in 2004.

In 2007, New York Senator Hillary Clinton was the front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but Barack Obama ended up as the nominee in 2008.

In 2007, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but John McCain ended up as the nominee in 2008.

In 2011, Herman Cain was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but Mitt Romney ended up as the nominee in 2012.

In 2015, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but Donald Trump ended up as the nominee in 2016.

Beyond these examples, in the third year of many Presidential terms, who could have known that the next President would be someone not seriously considered at that time to have a chance to be elected.

Witness John F. Kennedy in 1959; Richard Nixon in 1967; Jimmy Carter in 1975; Ronald Reagan in 1979; Bill Clinton in 1991; Barack Obama in 2007; and Donald Trump in 2015.

Also add the following: Abraham Lincoln in 1859; Woodrow Wilson in 1911; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1931; and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1951.

So, to assume that Joe Biden, currently ahead in all polls for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020, will be the nominee is quite a gamble, based upon history.