Hispanics

Arizona Ripe For Pickup By Barack Obama In Presidential Campaign Of 2012

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Arizona, the center of anti immigrant legislation, and arguably the ‘looniest” state in America, at least according to Bill Maher, is ripe for pickup by the Democratic Party and Barack Obama in the Presidential campaign of 2012.

Yes, it is true that the legislature is overwhelmingly Republican, and that both Senators (John McCain and Jon Kyl) are Republicans, and that the majority of the House delegation is Republican, and that Governor Jan Brewer is Republican, but yet with the growing Hispanic and Latino population, now about 30 percent, it looks as if Arizona is, over time, going to go the way of California, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado and vote Democratic.

Even Texas in the future, certainly by 2020, is likely to tip Democratic as long as the GOP continues its nativist mentality toward immigrants.

No one is saying that Obama will win Arizona, but there is a good chance that he could, and even if he does not, Arizona is likely to be a closer race than it was in 2008, when an Arizona Senator named John McCain won his home state, but not by as much as one would have thought (about 8.5 percentage points of the vote and 196,000 popular votes).

Latest Estimate On Presidential Election Results: Obama An Easy Winner Of Second Term!

Ronald 3 Comments

We are now a little more than six and a half months until the Presidential Election of 2012.

The latest estimates on the Electoral College, which will decide who takes the Oath of Office as President of the United States on Sunday, January 20, 2013, make it clear that President Obama has a clear edge to be re-elected.

According to the Associated Press, the Democrats have solid leads in 14 states and the District of Columbia, leading in five New England states, four Mid Atlantic states and the District of Columbia, plus Illinois, and the three Pacific Coast states and Hawaii, for a total of 186 electoral votes.

Obama also leads in four “swing states” in the crucial area of the Midwest (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota), along with Pennsylvania, with a total of 56 electoral votes.

So when you add these 18 states and the District of Columbia, it adds up to 242 electoral votes, only 28 short of the number needed to win the election.

So to believe that Obama will not gain 28 electoral votes as a minimum out of a grand total of 296 remaining electoral votes requires true delusion by those who predict a Mitt Romney and Republican victory!

Nine states are said to be “Up For Grabs”, all “swing states”, including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, for a grand total of 105 electoral votes

So if Obama wins Florida, he has won the election. If he wins Virginia and North Carolina, he has won the election. If he wins Ohio and Colorado, he needs only ONE more vote to be elected, which could come about from New Hampshire’s 4, New Mexico’s 5, Nevada’s 6, or Iowa’s 6.

Obama will probably not win all of the “swing states”, but to imagine he will lose all of them, or enough of them to lose the election, is a figment of a person’s imagination!

Were Obama to win all nine of these states making for a total of 27 states plus the District of Columbia, he would have 347 electoral votes.

Three states lean Republican, but could go to Obama theoretically if everything worked out in an ideal fashion–Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri. Indiana went to Obama in 2008, while Missouri went to John McCain by fewer than 5,000 votes. Arizona could go to Obama because of the rapidly rising Hispanic-Latino vote in a state which has promoted discriminatory laws against them. These three states have 32 electoral votes among them. Were everything to break right, it would allow Obama a grand total of 379 electoral votes and 30 states and the District of Columbia.

The other twenty states are solidly Republican, but with the possible exception of Georgia, with its growing number of Hispanics and Latinos Were the unbelievable but possible win by Obama in Georgia, it would mean 16 more electoral votes and a final grand total of 395 electoral votes in 31 states and the District of Columbia!

One might ask why Obama could end up with fewer electoral votes than 2008, if winning all of the states he won then. The answer is that states that are anti Obama have more electoral votes than they did, under reapportionment that goes into effect once a decade. These states include South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona and Utah.

Meanwhile, states which went for Obama in 2008 lost seats–New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Iowa.

Three states that went for Obama in 2008 gained seats–Florida, Nevada and Washington, while two states which went for McCain in 2008 lost seats–Louisiana and Missouri.

So this is the state of affairs regarding the Presidential Election of 2012 with a little over 200 days left in the Presidential campaign!

Lack Of Enthusiasm For Mitt Romney Within Republican Party: Danger Sign For November!

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Mitt Romney is the least popular GOP Presidential candidate in modern history, ten points lower than John McCain was in 2008.

He is losing among women, Independents, Hispanics and Latinos, based on many public opinion polls.

He has a lack of enthusiasm among religious voters, Southern whites, Midwesterners, conservatives, and even young voters

His major support are those over $100,000 income, corporate interests, and people of his own Mormon faith in states such as Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Arizona.

Romney simply has no natural constituency, and as things stand now, he could very well lose by a massive landslide, with Barack Obama winning close to his electoral vote total of 365 in 2008, and possibly winning more electoral votes!

Mitt Romney has become, at least at this point, a totally uninspiring candidate, and the odds of his recovery to the point of winning the Presidency seem extremely remote!

While Gone In DC, The Republican Presidential Race Ended!

Ronald 4 Comments

While the author was gone on vacation in Washington, DC, the Republican race finally came to an end.

Now, some of you might say that Ron Paul is still in the race, but let’s be serious: Mitt Romney is the GOP Presidential nominee, with both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum having stopped campaigning.

This does not mean that Mitt Romney has an easy road to the nomination, as he still needs several hundred delegates, and has not received the endorsement of either Gingrich or Santorum.

Newt Gingrich left the race primarily for economic issues, and Rick Santorum left due to the illness of his youngest daughter, Bella, and his realization that he might very well lose the Pennsylvania Primary two weeks from now.

By both leaving the race, they remain eligible for consideration in 2016, if Romney does not win the White House, even though one would have to say that for either to believe in their hearts that they have a real chance to be President in the future is purely delusional!

But Mitt Romney now has to face the reality, that in seeking the GOP nomination and selling his soul to the right wing of his party, he has lost credibility completely among middle of the road Americans, and yet is not trusted by the right wing or the evangelical Christians who look on his Mormon faith as a cult.

So Romney cannot be sure that evangelicals and conservatives will actually vote for him in November, and therefore, could lose some of the South and Midwest.

But he also trails terribly behind Barack Obama with women, Hispanics and Latinos, and Independents, and it will be hard to recoup.

And in polls, Romney is not well liked or trusted, and comes across as distant, aloof, and not able to relate to us.

And with Tax Day coming at the end of this week, the Democrats will do their best to remind us that Romney has not released his tax returns, except for the year 2010, while providing John McCain with 23 years of returns when he was considered a possible running mate by McCain in 2008. Why not release all of these tax returns?

The answer is that it is clear that Romney has something to hide, including the reports that he has loads of his $250 million fortune in the Cayman Islands and in Swiss banks!

That makes Romney look very unpatriotic, and unwilling to do his fair share to help the nation, seeing paying higher taxes due to his good fortune, as something that a rich person should feel for the blessing that he was able to accomplish his wealth, and owes it to the country to help its future, rather than just go by the legal limitation of the minimum he needs to pay, due to accounting tricks!

Romney is now said to be “mischievous and naughty” by his wife Anne, often acting like one of their sons, but that does not ring true, and even if so, it does not make up for his unwillingness to understand the plight of the average American, and his stiffness and aloofness and reserve around people he cannot easily relate to.

Americans like to feel that they like their President, and Romney is, unfortunately, simply not a warm and pleasant personality.

That, above all, is his ultimate doom, as it was for Thomas E. Dewey in 1948, who Romney looks more like by the day–an intelligent, qualified person who simply could not relate to the American people he wished to govern.

And get this: both Dewey and Romney grew up in Michigan! Dewey’s campaign against Harry Truman in 1948 went from a landslide lead to a total collapse, against a President who gave the Republican Party “hell”. In the case of Romney, he is way behind with little prospect of recovery, but also running against an incumbent President who is copying the Truman method of giving the Republicans “hell”!

Republicans, Women And Hispanics: Antagonism Self Induced And Irretrievable!

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The Republican Party has been suicidal in this Presidential campaign, and likely nominee Mitt Romney, as well as Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, have all effectively killed off the chances of the party wooing large percentages of two key voting groups–women and Hispanics.

Joe Scarborough, former Florida Congressman and host of Morning Joe on MSNBC has warned the party of the self induced damage they are doing, but the party leadership and candidates have been tone deaf to it.

And now a new series of polls show Mitt Romney way down in percentage with both women and Hispanics, and with seven months to go, no one, realistically, can see how the former Massachusetts Governor is going to turn the tide in his favor.

Trying to appeal to the right wing has harmed Romney in the nation, while not convincing the right wing to like him.

In the South and Midwest, in more rural and evangelical Christian areas, Romney has been unable to win, or promote loyalty for his candidacy. It is still doubtful that large numbers of these voters will come out for Romney in the Fall campaign.

So the story goes that he must pick a very conservative running mate for the Vice Presidency to appeal to these right wingers, but if so, it will only guarantee that Romney will lose the middle, the center of the population–including women, Hispanics, and also the all important Independents.

Without women, Hispanics, and Independents, how is Romney going to win the all important “swing states” in the South, the Midwest, and the Mountain States, as well as New Hampshire?

The answer is that the election is effectively over, as Romney cannot appeal to the “swing states” adequately, and cannot count on strong right wing support either.

What it comes down to is that Romney, by being a person who one cannot trust as to his views and beliefs, has effectively alienated the middle, while not being trusted even now by the right wing of his party.

And if, by some miracle, Romney won, he would see his dark hair turn grey quickly, as he would have no natural constituency to support him!

The Democrats would fight to weaken him, and the Republicans would feel no loyalty, and would work to move him to the extreme right, making it impossible to get anything done!

If one thinks Barack Obama has had troubles getting things done, imagine a President Romney trying to get things done, whether with Democratic or Republican control of the Congress!

Florida In Play For Democrats In 2012: A Shock To Republicans!

Ronald 1 Comment

Florida has become in many ways the center of right wing conservatism, what with the election of Governor Rick Scott, Senator Marco Rubio, and Congressman Allen West in the midterm 2010 elections.

The state legislature is about three fourths Republican as well, and only six Democrats serve Florida in the House of Representatives.

No one is saying that the Democrats are about to take over state politics, as that will be a long haul, but public opinion polls show that Barack Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in state polls about the Presidential election, and that Democratic Senator Bill Nelson has a big lead over Congressman Connie Mack IV, and that former appointed Senator George Lemieux is not even in the equation for the upcoming race.

The odds for Lois Frankel to overcome Adam Hasner for the Palm Beach County seat, that West held before he chose to move to a new congressional district in northern Palm Beach County and Martin and St. Lucie Counties, is seen as very good. And West is facing a major challenge in a young, charismatic CPA named Patrick Erin Murphy.

This is probably due to the improving economy, and the growing alienation nationwide of Independents, non Cuban Hispanics, and women to the GOP agenda.

Since Florida is the ultimate “swing state”, this might improve the possibility of Senator Rubio as the Vice Presidential running mate of Mitt Romney, even though Rubio keeps on saying that he has no interest, at age 41, rising to that level.

Florida will certainly be paid a lot of attention in this year’s political races!

Mitt Romney’s Endorsement By Jeb Bush And What It May Mean

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Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has had a good 24 hour cycle, with the major win in Illinois, support from a wide band of voting groups, and the endorsement by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

Bush is one of the heavyweights in the GOP, and his endorsement, held off to now, is a prized one.

It would seem that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, ending up 12 points behind, will have less opportunity to move ahead, although he might win Louisiana this weekend. But he would have to win WIsconsin on April 3, and his home state of Pennsylvania on April 24, to remain alive, and nothing in this regard is certain.

Meanwhile, with Newt Gingrich ending up last, behind Ron Paul, in Illinois, it would seem that it is time for the former House Speaker to leave the race, but his ego, and the fact money is still rolling in, means he will wish the publicity to continue running, even though he has only won South Carolina and Georgia.

Ron Paul has won nowhere except the US VIrgin Islands, but he is not about to withdraw either.

The goal of the three stragglers is to prevent 1,144 delegate votes for Mitt Romney on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Tampa in August, and the promotion of the first contested convention since Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford fought it out on the convention floor in 1976.

Bush’s backing of Romney is certainly a sign that the “Establishment” Republicans want unity, seeing it as essential now to organize against President Barack Obama.

And there is now speculation that Jeb Bush might accept the Vice Presidential nomination with Romney, but that seems highly unlikely. Bush certainly would help with Hispanic and Latino voters, and mainline conservatives, but Bush does not seem like the type to be number two on anyone’s ticket.

Are Virginia, North Carolina And Colorado The Ultimate Deciders Of The Presidential Election Of 2012?

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A new study comes up with the conclusion that the ultimate swing states for the Presidential Election Of 2012 are Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado.

These states have in common the following: growing numbers of well educated, high income voters with technology expertise in significant technology hubs; plus large increases in Hispanic and Latino population; and large components of women who are also more educated and professional and will not tolerate the attack on women that the Republican Party is engaged in nationally, in many states, and on conservative talk radio.

These states all voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but switched to Barack Obama in 2008, and the trend toward the Democrats, including also Independent voters, seems hard to reverse by the Republican Party and its candidate for President, whoever that will be!

An African American Vs. A Mormon: The Quandary For The “Old Confederate” South

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Mitt Romney was dealt a walloping defeat last night in both Alabama and Mississippi, gaining only about 30 percent of the vote against his two competitors–winner Rick Santorum and runner up Newt Gingrich.

With all that, Romney still has twice the delegates of Santorum and three times the delegates of Gingrich, and is still seen as the likely nominee, although it may end up as a battle at the August Tampa Republican National Convention.

The problem is that Romney is perceived, particularly in the South, as not conservative enough, and overwhelming numbers of conservatives, Tea Party activists, and Evangelical Christians do not like, and were unwilling to support him. Romney has lost not just Alabama and Mississippi and Tennessee to Santorum, but also South Carolina and Georgia to Gingrich. The only “Old Confederate” Southern states he has won are Florida, which is unique in many respects, and Virginia, where he had only the competition of Ron Paul. Romney is not expected to win North Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana, or Texas, when those states vote in their primaries.

So the question arises: Can Mitt Romney, if he is the Republican nominee for President, carry the “Old Confederate” South? Will the conservatives, Tea Party, and Evangelical Christians get out there and organize and vote for him over Barack Obama?

Truthfully, low voter turnout, due to lack of enthusiasm, COULD cost Romney the election, if African Americans and Hispanics and Latinos come out in large numbers to vote, and are not prevented from voting by new voter ID laws.

These Republican groups will also have on their mind the reality that Mitt Romney is a Mormon, seen as a cult and non Christian by many Bible Belt types.

Is that worse than being an African American? In this unusual circumstance, an African American vs. a Mormon, an extremely unusual circumstance, who can honestly say what would happen?

The suspicion is that Obama could hold on in the states he won last time–Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, but also would have a shot at winning Georgia and even Texas, if there is a low GOP voter turnout, and if Hispanics and Latinos, growing numbers in both states, vote in high percentages for Obama, again without prevention by Voter ID laws designed to cut their vote, as well as that of African Americans.

No matter how much other Southern states may feel that the Mormon Church is unacceptable, to believe that Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas would vote for an African American, would require one to hallucinate!

The good thing is that the five states Obama could win have 111 electoral votes, while the other six states certain to vote Republican have only 49 electoral votes!

Were Obama to win more than two thirds of the electoral votes of the “Old Confederate” South, that would be an amazing development and would insure, all by itself, that Obama would win an overwhelming electoral vote victory in November 2012!

Mississippi And Alabama Continue Their Bad Reputation From The 1960s

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Mississippi and Alabama vote tomorrow in the Republican Presidential primaries, and as we focus on the two states with the worst reputation possible fifty years ago, one has to wonder has anything changed?

The answer is NO, although now the majority of citizens of those two states vote Republican, rather than for the Democratic Party.

But all that happened is that the whites of those states switched, based on the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 under President Lyndon B. Johnson, from the Democrats to the Republicans, as the Republicans gave up their Reconstruction image of being pro African American rights, and therefore, inherited the segregationists of the 1960s.

Sure, African American involvement in the politics of those two Deep South states has multiplied, but still those states are dominated by the old racism and segregationist mentality of the 1960s! They remain among the poorest states of the union, both black and white citizens.

Now, those states are working to make it harder for minorities to vote, leading to court cases. Also, discrimination against immigrants of Hispanic ancestry is in full swing, particularly so in Alabama.

And a majority in a poll believe that Barack Obama is a Muslim, while at the same time, NOT believing in evolution, but instead the Bible creationist theory. So they do not believe in science, but believe in a Lord who discriminates based on race and nationality!

What can one say except throw their hands up in frustration and exasperation at the ignorance and narrow mindedness of these two states, whose reputation remains in the bottom ten of our 50 states, and very close to the bottom, if not the bottom!