History News Network

Final Projections On Electoral College And Presidential Election Of 2016

Ronald 5 Comments

Ok, the time has arrived for my final projection on the Presidential election of 2016.

I project that all Barack Obama states will go to Hillary Clinton, except for Iowa–25 of 26 states in 2012–18 “Blue” states plus DC, and 7 “swing” or “purple” states. Iowa would be the only “swing” or “purple” state that would go “Red”.

At the same time, two “Red” or Romney states–North Carolina and Arizona–would swing to the Democrats.

The math means 6 votes are subtracted from Iowa for Clinton, while 26 electoral votes are added to Clinton’s side, with 15 electoral votes from North Carolina and 11 electoral votes from Arizona.

So instead of 332 electoral votes for Obama, the final total for Clinton will be 352, against 186 for Donald Trump as compared to 206 for Romney.

Hillary Clinton would have 27 states to 23 for Trump, as compared to 24 for Romney, so gain of one state for the Democrats.

We shall see how accurate I am in this third round of Presidential Projections after 2008 and 2012.

A more detailed article has been published on History News Network yesterday, and is now posted on this blog as well, on the right hand side!

FBI Director James Comey Complicates Presidential Race, But Will NOT Change Electoral Result!

Ronald 2 Comments

FBI Director James Comey has put a major “fly in the ointment” by stating publicly that further investigation of Hillary Clinton’s emails are in process, specifically those connected to her aide, Huma Abedin, and her estranged husband, former New York Congressman Anthony Weiner, who has become persona non grata due to his sexting with teenage girls.

This has led to outrage by Democrats, and concern that it could affect the results of the Presidential Election of 2016 next week.

But despite some conflicting public opinion polls, one must remember that millions have already voted, and that the 18 “Blue” states and DC are still just about guaranteed to support Clinton, and that only one or two more states are needed to gain 270 electoral votes and the victory.

Most of the “swing” states seem likely to be in Clinton’s camp, and Donald Trump’s many negatives still outweigh the negatives about Hillary Clinton.

So while it is important to make sure voters are encouraged to get out there and vote, this blogger feels comfortable that the Democrats are going to win the Presidency handily!

I will post details and specifics in the coming few days, and also am writing on History News Network this weekend on the election!

Trump Support Hemorraghing Rapidly In “Red” States!

Ronald 4 Comments

Three weeks to go until the Presidential Election of 2016, and it seems clear, by public opinion polls,that Donald Trump’s support in “Red” states is hemorrhaging rapidly.

His mishandling of the sexual assault allegations has turned many Republicans against him, and his condemnation of Republican leadership, including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, is damaging his ability even to hold on to the loyal Republican states.

So we have evidence that the following states are possible pick ups by Hillary Clinton:

North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Utah
Indiana
Missouri
South Carolina
Texas
Alaska
Mississippi
Kansas
Nebraska (or at least the Omaha area)

One can be quite certain that many of these states will, in the end, still back Donald Trump, but by a much smaller margin than for Mitt Romney in 2012 or John McCain in 2008.

But the first four on the above list look ripe for being picked up by Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.

I will post an entry close to the election on my final projections, and I remind my readers that, independent of Nate Silver in 2012, I projected, as he did, the precise electoral vote distribution-332-206.

I also will publish my projection on History News Network, and will be on radio with Jon Grayson of CBS St Louis, KMOX 1120 AM, Overnight with Jon Grayson, one of the radio shows I have been on, and posted on the right side of the blog, on Election Night at 1 AM ET on November 9, a few hours after the polls have closed, to comment on the results.

The Health Issue With Two “Senior Citizen” Presidential Nominees

Ronald 6 Comments

This blogger has discussed on this blog and on History News Network and in other social media posts of his concern about having two older nominees as the final competitors for the Presidency, as Donald Trump would be older than Ronald Reagan at inauguration, and Hillary Clinton would be only about eight months younger than Ronald Reagan at inauguration.

No one wants to say that older nominees, those who are “senior citizens”, are at greater danger of having health issues or even facing death, than younger nominees, but that is a basic reality.

What is now required after the near fainting and buckling of Hillary Clinton at the September 11 commemoration event in New York City is the demand and requirement that both Clinton and Donald Trump MUST be expected to give FULL details on their health, and that should include a basic psychological testing as well, as Donald Trump’s behavior and statements make one wonder about his mental stability.

Full transparency is required, but it also should not be demagogically exploited by Donald Trump and his surrogates, which, unfortunately, is guaranteed to occur in the coming days and weeks, making it a major campaign issue.

The now emerging news that Hillary Clinton has Pneumonia, which was diagnosed on Friday, complicates the issue of the first scheduled Presidential debate to weeks from Monday, whether it will have to be delayed or canceled. And Pneumonia is a serious issue, and right now, we have to hope for a full recovery for Hillary Clinton, and no one should play politics with this.

It is clear that Hillary Clinton wanted to follow through on honoring the dead from September 11, and that is why she showed up today, although having the diagnosis on Friday.

But knowing Donald Trump, do not be surprised that he will exploit it in a disgusting way, which should, if people are decent, backfire on him, whether it is done indirectly by Rudy Giuliani or some other despicable surrogate, or by the candidate himself.

Republican Loss Of Principle In Supporting Donald Trump Shocks Conservatives

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It is shocking how so many Republicans, despite everything Donald Trump has uttered and done, somehow cannot do what is right, and condemn Donald Trump and refuse to support him.

Instead, they make out Hillary Clinton to be such total evil that they would rather elect an unstable, unhinged, dangerous man, who they would discover cannot be controlled, and would create a constant constitutional crisis, as his Fascist, racist, nativist supporters become the equivalent of Benito Mussolini’s Brown Shirts.

The Republicans are demonizing Hillary Clinton as they did with Barack Obama, as the nation moves inevitably toward another Democratic victory for the White House.

The Republican leadership is totally undermining their respectability and legitimacy by their helplessness with this crisis in their party.

Conservatives may never again trust the Republican Party, as so many of them have repudiated Trumpism, while only a few Republican office holders have had the courage to do so.

As this blogger has written on History News Network (hnn.us), the Republican Party is about to implode in a total fashion, and may not survive in its present form, and possibly the name itself might become part of the dust bin of history.

8th Anniversary Of “The Progressive Professor”, And 5,300 Entries And Counting!

Ronald 2 Comments

Today is the 8th Anniversary of this blog, The Progressive Professor!

It began in 2008 at the time of the national conventions selecting Barack Obama and John McCain as the Presidential nominees.

It has covered the controversies, issues, and personalities of the years of Barack Obama as President.

It has been enriched by the contributions in comments of many people who have added insight on many of the issues discussed, and I wish to thank all of them who have been part of the past eight years.

It has also witnessed a few trolls who have joined in at times, wishing to muddy up the waters, so to speak, but failing at that goal.

On this 8th anniversary, we have just reached the grand total of 5,300 entries, an amazing amount for a blog to have accomplished over just eight years.

I have been fortunate enough, in the interim, to retire full time from teaching, but keep a connection with part time teaching. But I have also been able to lecture 40-50 times a year locally to adults and senior citizens in South Florida.

I have also published my book on Presidential Assassinations and Threats, and have been on C Span, NPR, and many other radio interviews.

And I have been appreciative of the opportunity to write articles for TheHill.com and HNN.us (History News Network) on my book and on public affairs (with 28 essays on HNN and counting).

All of my activities are listed on the right side of the blog, and anyone can watch, listen, or read the links at your leisure.

And now my Assassinations book will be coming out in paperback in March 2017.

I hope to continue this blog for many more years, and look forward to it with great expectations, as we elect a new President and move into the future!

Thanks again to everyone, especially my readers who do not comment, but read me regularly, as it is much appreciated!

Historians Organize Against Donald Trump: Is That A Proper Role? YES!

Ronald 15 Comments

More than 600 historians and scholars, including myself, have joined a group of Historians Against Donald Trump to register our concern about the possible election of a man who is perceived by just about all people in the field, except a few, to be a danger to America and its future.

There are those observers who think historians should not get involved in political races, but this is a constitutional crisis in the making, as many see it, and it is essential that people versed in the history of leadership, both good and bad, worldwide, speak their minds and warn Americans of the threat that they face, were Trump, somehow, magically able to win.

This is not a usual election, but instead is a turning point in American history that will have a vast effect on the future of the nation.

And now when Donald Trump hints at “Second Amendment remedies” against Hillary Clinton, if she wins the election, to prevent Supreme Court appointments, it is even more necessary than ever to have historians speak out about the threat of violence.

And as the author of a book on Presidential and Presidential candidate assassinations, this blogger feels a need to speak out openly of the threat of Donald Trump.

Later today, my thoughts on Trump, implying an assassination of Hillary Clinton might be a “Second Amendment remedy”, are being published on HNN, History News Network website.

Second time.com/history/ Article From History News Network (hnn.us) Published

Ronald 2 Comments

I wanted to point out that my second History News Network article to be placed on the time.com/history website occurred on July 15, regarding the Supreme Court and Presidential Ambition.

My first article on time.com/history was on April 4, on nine Presidents who had to fight to gain the Presidential nomination of their party on later ballots at the national conventions of their party.

Altogether, this blogger has been fortunate to have 24 articles and counting published on the History News Network site (hnn.us) this year, so I encourage my readers to access that website three times a week, with all articles eventually posted on this website under Articles and Op-Eds.

Donald Trump Plans 15 State Strategy For Presidential Election, Including Solidly Blue States!

Ronald 32 Comments

Donald Trump is telling us he has a 15 state strategy, including California and New York, solidly “blue” states.

Trump is living in a parallel universe, as there is no chance that he will win ANY “blue” state, as this blogger sees it, except possibly New York, his home state.

In an article for History News Network (HNN) by this author, available under “Articles” on the right side of this blog, I come to the conclusion that Trump COULD win New York, by a small margin, being that he is a resident of New York, and should carry upstate New York and Long Island, and could possibly outpoll Hillary Clinton statewide, even with New York City staying strongly Democratic.

However, California, most assuredly will NOT go for Trump, with Barack Obama having won the state by 23 points in 2012.

As I state on that article, which has had high readership, I forecast that Clinton will win two states that were “red” in 2012, North Carolina and Georgia, with a total of 31 electoral votes, which would make up for the possible loss of New York, with 29 electoral votes.

So I forecast an Electoral College vote of 334-204, instead of the 332-206 results for Obama in 2012.

My Projection On Election On History News Network; And Tomorrow, My Rating Presidents Article On HNN!

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My History News Network article of last Sunday on My Projection on the Presidential Election of 2016 is now on the blog, on the right side under the heading “Articles & Op-Eds”.

By Monday morning if not before, my Rating Presidents article, updating the C Span rating of 2009, which is due for updating by that station later this year or early in 2017 as Barack Obama leaves office, will indicate how I would change that rating from seven and a half years ago, after putting Barack Obama into the equation.

Of course, trying to judge how a Presidential election will sort out, as well as the many factors in judging Presidential leadership, is highly debatable and controversial, and I welcome commentary on the blog, as to the views of my readers on my conclusions in both matters.

I wish to thank Rick Shenkman of HNN for his encouragement of my writings for publication on his website, with the Ratings Presidents article being my 16th and counting of a wonderful association with the website HNN, which on the average gains 800.000 hits or more per month, and the Projecting the Presidential election results article having gained 6,000 hits in just a few days this past week!