Howard Dean

The Failure Of “Americans Elect” As A Third Party Movement In 2012

Ronald 1 Comment

Independent minded centrists, disgusted with the two party system and the failure to promote political compromise, made a valiant effort to promote an online third party under the name “Americans Elect”, but they have utterly failed for the upcoming Presidential Election of 2012.

This is a bad sign for the future, as it indicates that the party conflict, greatest since the Civil War, is going to continue, and it endangers any hope of our system working, unless one party is able to win and keep control of government for a sustained period of time.

Having said the above, the author still feels that the victory of Barack Obama is essential, and that IF he is given a Democratic Congress, the country can make progress on the many issues that divide us, and loom in the future.

What it comes down to is that all of the potential independent candidates, symbolized by Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York City, simply did not want to break with their party, did not want to go through the literal Hell that is the reality of running for President at a divisive time as we are now going through.

The list of potential candidates included also Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Rick Santorum, Hillary Clinton, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Howard Dean, Donald Trump, Al Gore, Sarah Palin, and David Petraeus.

One looks at this list and is shocked that Christie, Santorum, Paul, Trump, and Palin are on the list, all horrible choices in so many ways.

But to put most of the others on the potential list is also totally out of touch with reality, particularly with Powell, Rice, Clinton, Dean, and Gore.

Daniels, Huntsman, and Petraeus join Bloomberg as the most reasonable candidates, but again none wanted to put their name in the running.

The reality is that the Presidency is becoming such an obstacle course, that many good people will decide NOT to run in the future, leaving us with the danger of the kind of mediocrity we saw this year in the Republican Presidential race.

Tom Ridge Endorsement Of Jon Huntsman An Interesting Development In Light Of Poor Poll Performance of Huntsman: Is There Still Hope For Mainstream Republicans?

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The endorsement today of Jon Huntsman, former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, for the Republican Presidential nomination, by former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, who also was our first head of the Homeland Security Department under President George W. Bush, is an interesting, and possibly revealing, development!

With Huntsman so low in the polls, only one or two percent, and in danger of being eliminated from future Republican debates as a result, it would seem odd that Ridge, a reputable moderate, would bother endorsing him, when it seems like a lost cause.

But, as has been said earlier in other posts, one must remember that John McCain in 2007 and John Kerry in 2003 looked hopeless at this point of those Presidential campaigns, and instead, Howard Dean and Wesley Clark in 2004 and Rudy Guiliani and Fred Thompson in 2008 looked like the favorites as rivals for the Presidential nominations of their parties.

So to assume that Rick Perry and Mitt Romney might be the frontrunners all the way is a major gamble in many ways!

With Huntsman easily the best candidate in the race, and with solid foreign policy credentials that no one else has, it might be said that former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty’s endorsement of Romney, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval endorsements of Perry might be a major blunder!

Again, IF the GOP nominates Huntsman, and fights the Tea Party influence, they have a golden opportunity to defeat Barack Obama! If not, it is a lost cause in an almost certain way!

The What Ifs Of September 11: If It Never Happened, How Would America Be Different?

Ronald 1 Comment

As we commemorate the 10th Anniversary of September 11, one can wonder how America would be different if September 11 had never occurred.

Among the thoughts and possibilities are:

1. There would be no Homeland Security Department in the federal government, and no special precautions at airports.
2. There would not be level of secret government activities, including intrusion on American citizens and interferences with civil liberties, that we have now.
3. There would not have been prolonged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq for ten years.
4. We would not have the level of national debt that we have now because of reactions to September 11.
5. Very likely, George W. Bush might not have won reelection because of the domestic economy problems, and a “new” type of Democrat, such as Howard Dean, might have won the Presidency.
6. A President Dean, in peacetime, and with reforms, might have won reelection in 2008, and there would have been no President Barack Obama.
7. Problems with Iran might have been more focused on, and there might have been military reactions against Iran as a result, and instead Iran is a major threat to the world in 2011.
8. Problems with China in 2001 might have led to more confrontation with that nation, instead of depending on China for much of our national budget through their buying of US debt caused by the wars we have waged after September 11.
9. We would not have the level of distrust and suspicion of the Islamic faith that we have today.
10. Politics might not be as polarized and confrontational as it has become in the past decade.
11. We might be having a spirited contest in 2012 with different faces in the mix for the Presidency, with President Howard Dean finishing his second term of domestic reform and no major foreign policy crisis, unless Iran or China had become so problematical that there was military conflict with either nation.
12. The Middle East would still have Saddam Hussein, but he would remain contained, but by now, with the Arab Spring, he might be facing turmoil and rebellion, as in the rest of the region.
13. Domestic reforms greater than Barack Obama has achieved would have likely occurred under President Howard Dean, including national health care, as there would not have been the kind of defense and war spending that occurred in the past decade.

Of course, all of the above are suppositions, theories, projections–all of which might NOT have happened, but it is fascinating to try to imagine Others will see things differently, and it is the stuff of historical fiction to conceive a novel with the imaginary past!

The Lack Of Reliability of September Third Year Presidential Polls: Wesley Clark And Rudy Guiliani!

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The tendency to believe presidential election polls in the fall of the third year of a Presidential term comes back, as we enter September, with Rick Perry having a growing lead over Mitt Romney for the Republican Presidential nomination.

In 2004, former Army General Wesley Clark was leading polls for the Democratic nomination, and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean was seen as the favorite by the end of the year, but Senator John Kerry won the nomination.

In 2008, former NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani led in September for the Republican nomination, with Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee in second place, but Senator John McCain was the nominee.

So it is not yet smart to assume that Perry or Romney have the Republican nomination for 2012 guaranteed!

With both John Kerry and John McCain being “dark horses” at this point in 2004 and 2008, keep your attention on former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman as the “dark horse” of the race, with excellent credentials and centrist tendencies, but extremely low poll ratings.

If Huntsman emerges, it will be a John, but with a different spelling as Jon, who will have been the surprise of the Presidential campaign for the third straight election!

But also realize that both John Kerry and John McCain lost their races to George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and the odds of Huntsman to become President, while better on paper than any other Republican candidate, have to be seen as a long shot!

Good Sign For 2012: Michael Bloomberg And Howard Dean Dismiss Idea Of Challenging Barack Obama!

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Despite the anger in left wing circles over the tax deal struck between President Barack Obama and the Republican leadership, it now seems apparent that no serious chance exists of either a challenge to Obama for the Democratic nomination in 2012, or a serious third party movement from the left.

This conclusion is based on the comments today on the Sunday talk shows by Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York City, and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean.

Bot have been rumored to be thinking of a challenge, either third party or within the party, but Bloomberg ruled it out completely and hailed the agreement between Obama and the GOP, while Dean said that he saw no chance of anyone challenging the President within his party, despite some disappointment over the tax arrangement.

All that we need to hear is that soon to be former Senator Russ Feingold make a similar announcement, which he should, as to oppose Obama in the presidential primaries would not be productive, and would only help to bring a right wing Republican to the White House in the 2012 election.

So, except for maybe Ralph Nader running, as he does automatically every four years, each time with far less credibility and performance results, Obama will be in far better shape for the 2012 Presidential election than he would be if either Bloomberg or Dean, or additionally Feingold, were to move ahead to be a candidate!

The Conflict Over Barack Obama At MSNBC! :(

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MSNBC is seen as the “liberal” and “progressive” cable channel, the rival of “conservative” and “Republican” Fox News Channel.

But these are not happy days at MSNBC, with a big split developing among the evening talk show hosts, regarding Barack Obama’s tax compromise with the Republican Party!

Chris Matthews fully backs Obama’s compromise as necessary and unavoidable under the circumstances, and makes it clear that there is no real alternative to Obama for progressives!

Lawrence O’Donnell also has concluded much the same thing, so therefore, two of the five talk show hosts stand together in support of Barack Obama!

But Ed Schultz, Keith Olbermann, and Rachel Maddow are all highly critical of Obama for “caving in” to the Republicans, and demonstrating weakness and a lack of “spine”!

The angry base of progressives and liberals, however, really have no place to go, as there are no strong alternative candidates, although Russ Feingold has been suggested, and today, Howard Dean, a “blast from the past”, has also been mentioned!

The prospects of either of these gentleman or any other, more obscure, candidate stopping Obama dead in his tracks, and keeping the Democratic Party united for the Presidential campaign, is close to zero!

Again, it is not pleasant that this tax deal had to be agreed to, but there is simply no real alternative than to “bite the bullet”, and plan for a major fight on the part of Obama to change the direction of the nation in the Presidential election campaign of 2012!

The fight against the GOP agenda is not over by any means! It is just beginning, and it would be helpful if the three MSNBC hosts understood that, and came back to support of Barack Obama!

Is A Republican “Dark Horse” To Emerge In 2012 Presidential Race?

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“Dark Horses”, candidates who are not thought of seriously and come from behind to win or be major factors in a political race, are a part of America’s political culture!

We have had several “dark horse” Presidential nominees of a major party, and four have become President, all Democrats–James K. Polk in 1844, Franklin Pierce in 1852, Woodrow Wilson in 1912, and Jimmy Carter in 1976!

Wendell Willkie, the 1940 GOP nominee for President, was also a “dark horse”, but lost the race to Franklin D. Roosevelt.

However, we had “dark horses” who excited the races in both parties in the past two presidential election cycles before flopping–Howard Dean in 2004 for the Democrats, and Mike Huckabee in 2008 for the Republicans!

So therefore, there are a few potential candidates for “dark horse” for the GOP for 2012! The candidates being talked about are primarily Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, and Haley Barbour.

But the names to watch for 2012 might include:

Congressman Mike Pence of Indiana, who has charisma, good looks, strong conservative and Tea Party credentials, and has had a leadership position in the House as Conference Chairman of the GOP.

Senator elect Marco Rubio of Florida, who is often called the Cuban Barack Obama in reverse, and is young, charismatic, good looking, has fervent support from conservatives and Tea Party people, and represents the largest state in population of any GOP potential candidate who is seen as a possible nominee.

Senator John Thune of South Dakota, who is charismatic, handsome, strong conservative, seen as best bet for any Senator seen as a possibility in a primarily competition among Governors and former Governors.

Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who is handsome, charismatic, and started the victory wave against the Democrats when he won the Senate seat of the late Ted Kennedy, but will have trouble being elected for a full term in Democratic dominated Massachusetts, so might run for President instead, although probably too moderate for the Republican base.

Could any of these four seriously become the Presidential nominee? Well, we have only had one Congressman go directly to the White House (James Garfield), and he was assassinated after only a few months in the Presidency! Both Rubio and Brown will have had very brief experience on the national level by 2012, similar however to Barack Obama!

Thune will have had eight years in the Senate, along with six previous years in the House of Representatives, so will be, by far, the most experienced nationally of any of these “dark horse” possibilities by 2012!

If one had to prognosticate who among these might have the best chance to emerge, were they to run, the best bet is that it would be John Thune, so it will be interesting to watch and see what happens to this group of potential candidates! Stay tuned! 🙂

Barack Obama, The Pragmatist Against Howard Dean And The Ideologues

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If you listen to talk radio or watch Fox News, you would term Barack Obama a “radical”, a “socialist”, or “extremely liberal”.

But that is not what you hear from Howard Dean, the former Chair of the Democratic National Committee, former Governor of Vermont, and early front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2004.

This is also what you would not hear from MoveOn.org or the blog website Daily Kos. They and Dean have denounced the health care bill as a surrender to the insurance industry and the conservatives, and have called for its defeat, although all 60 Democrats voted for it on the day before Christmas. They say that Obama has caved in, and not kept his promises during the campaign on so many things, including not just health care, but Afghanistan and the issue of gay rights.

They tend to interpret Obama’s campaign for President as promising more than he has done, when actually, Obama never promised to get out of Afghanistan, and never promised a “public option”, and pledged forward movement on gay rights, but not something that would happen overnight, considering the strong opposition to any change. Obama actually ran as a moderate liberal in the mainstream, although the controversy over his minister was exaggerated to make him seem overly radical.

Like every Democratic President in the past century, much more is expected of Obama than is realistic to expect to occur in just one year, and possibly at any point. The country is not anywhere near as liberal or progressive as left wing groups like to imagine, and the way to success is to stay in the middle of the political spectrum, with some tipping to the left on certain issues and at appropriate times.

If one goes by ideological purity, then Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton were all disappointments, constantly under attack by the left that existed at their time for refusing to go further left than they did.

And yet all of these Democratic Presidents made major contributions that are historic and long lasting in domestic and foreign policy. All made significant changes in America, on a much larger and positive scale than most of the Republican Presidents of the past century.

So Barack Obama is the pragmatist, and in the long run, this is the tradition of the American Presidency, particularly under Democratic Presidents!

Great Advice From Economist Paul Krugman: Pass The Imperfect Health Care Legislation!

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Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, Princeton economist and NY Times columnist, gives all of us who are exhausted by the Health Care controversy great advice: PASS THE BILL!

Contradicting those liberals, such as Howard Dean, who say we should drop the legislation and start all over, Krugman points out that every major reform ever passed starts out as imperfect and gets better over time.

Passage of the bill would do the following:
1. Discrimination based on medical condition or history would be banned. Pre-existing condtions would no longer be a basis for rejection, and insurance could not be canceled when someone gets sick.
2. Substantial government aid to those who are not covered for health insurance at their work would be provided.
3. Small employers who provide health insurance for their employees would receive tax breaks.
4. Premiums for lower income and lower middle income workers would drop dramatically.
5. 30 million people not covered by health insurance would come under the umbrella of this legislation.
6. This would be the first strong effort to curb health care costs, which have been rising much faster than inflation.

To follow the leanings of Howard Dean and other far left liberals would mean giving the same advice as conservatives and the Republican party has been promoting all along. But if nothing is done now, then it is unlikely that anything will be accomplished in the remainder of the Obama Presidency, and very possibly, for the next generation or more.

To believe that the Democrats will have a bigger margin of seats in 2010 or beyond is certainly a utopian vision. The time for action, although imperfect and incomplete, is NOW!

Howard Dean Wrong To Call For Abandonment Of Health Care Reform

Ronald 1 Comment

Former Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean has denounced the health care legislation being considered by the Senate because of the likelihood that there will be no public option or Medicare alternative for 55-64 years old, in order to keep the support of Joe Lieberman and get a bill passed.

While I am very unhappy at the dominant role that Lieberman has, to abandon the whole idea of health care reform now would mean the likelihood of no reform at all during this presidential term, and possibly for a long time.

As I see it, it is better to get incremental reform than no reform at all, and to cover millions more of those who are not insured.

It is tough to say that compromise is necessary, but realistically it is the only alternative, and President Obama senses that, and in this, he is, I think, a realist and a practical man.

Once this legislation is passed, an effort can be made over time to strengthen the law, with the most important issue now being to accomplish the passage of legislation that, finally after nearly a century since Theodore Roosevelt first suggested it, will move toward the goal of universal health insurance coverage.