Independents

The Seven “Swing States” And Four “Red” States Which Will Decide The Presidential Election Of 2012

Ronald 2 Comments

Many ill informed people might think that the Presidential Election of 2012 is nearly even, based on some public opinion polls that show the popular vote close or tied, particularly the case with Fox News Polls, which tend to distort reality, but are believed by those who see that so called “news channel”, and the “poison and hate” it disposes, as being absolute Gospel!

But in reality, the election is NOT close at this point, with the decision based on seven “swing” states, all of which Barack Obama won last time, and all seven in which he has a clear lead at this point.

Of course, no one can live on polls at any moment of time, and it will be essential for Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and others who speak for the Administration to get out there and be actively campaigning and spreading the word over the next six months, but the fact that Mitt Romney has major problems with Independents, women, Hispanics and Latinos, Young people, and Evangelical Christians, make it clear that he has a massive set of challenges to overcome Barack Obama, and this is not the time to put betting money on the former Massachusetts Governor.

The seven states that will be most paid attention to, and visited by both campaigns over the next six months are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

Additionally, four “red” states have a shot at switching to Obama, with those states in order of likelihood to switch including Missouri, Arizona, Montana and Georgia.

So instead of listening to propaganda, realize that it is these seven “swing” states and four “red” states that are the crux of the election!

Republican Run State Governments, Their Social Agenda, And The Effect On 2012 Elections

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Many states witnessed Republican takeover or consolidation in the Midterm Elections of 2010, but now, 18 months later, the record of those states run by Republicans could come back to haunt them and lead to Democratic victories across America.

Of course, many states have Republican Governors whose voters have “buyers remorse” over, including Scott Walker of Wisconsin, who faces a recall vote on June 5. But also, there is a lot of discontent with other “Bully” Governors, including Rick Snyder of Michigan, John Kasich of Ohio, Rick Scott of Florida, Paul LePage of Maine, Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania, and in some polls, Chris Christie of New Jersey. Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo of New York, Martin O’Malley of Maryland, and Dannel Malloy of Connecticut are among the Democratic Governors looking great in the polls.

The Republican controlled state legislatures proceeded to pass laws on social issues, including gay rights, abortion, gun rights, laws against teaching of evolution, and laws allowing invasion of privacy of women’s bodies.

States including Virginia, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Maine have passed all kinds of laws that will cause a revulsion among Independents, women, Hispanics and Latinos, and young voters

Even the American Legislative Exchange Council, a business backed group which promotes conservative laws at the state level, has recognized how there could be a reaction against the right wing extremism in many states, and is now focusing on economic issues.

It will be interesting to see how this all works out in November, regarding state legislatures.

The All Crucial Hispanic-Latino Vote And The Presidential Election Of 2012: The Doom Of Mitt Romney

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There are many Anglo Americans (non Hispanic and Latino) who wish to imagine that their population will continue to control voting power and election results into the long term future.

That is an illusion, a fantasy, out of touch with reality!

The facts are that Hispanics and Latinos are the largest minority group in America, and combined with Asian Americans and African Americans, will tip to the majority of population, by estimate of the US Census Bureau, in about 30-35 years, by the mid 2040s.

Nothing is going to stop this, and it will influence all Presidential elections and Congressional elections more and more as the years go by.

So the facts about the Hispanic-Latino vote are worth noticing.

We have 50.5 million people of Spanish ancestry, one of every six Americans in 2010, a 13 percent increase since 2000. By 2030, it is expected that there will be a 21.8 percent increase to 78 million Hispanics-Latinos. By 2050 projections, there will be 27.8 percent of the population of this ancestry, about 111 million Americans.

More than six of every ten Hispanics-Latinos were born in America, with Mexicans being nearly two thirds of all people of this heritage, almost 32 million out of 50.5 million, and with Puerto Ricans, (who are automatically citizens), being the second largest group with 4.6 million, over 9 percent of the population of Hispanics-Latinos.

Cubans are third with 1.8 million; Salvadorans a surprising fourth with 1.6 million; Dominicans fifth with 1.4 million, Guatemalans sixth with about one million; Colombians seventh with about 900,000; Hondurans eighth with 600,000; Ecuadorans ninth with about 550,000; and Peruvians tenth with about 525,000.

In order, there are smaller numbers of Nicaraguans, Argentinians, Venezuelans, Panamanians, Chileans, Costa Ricans, Bolivians, Uruguayans, Other Central Americans, and Paraguayans.

51 percent of Hispanic-Latino registered voters are Democrats, with 31 percent Independents, and 18 percent Republican. But only 11 million are registered, and the push is on to register more Hispanic-Latino voters, particularly by the Democrats.

About two thirds of Hispanic-Latino voters have gone for the Democrats in their voting behavior in the past ten years, with the high point for Republicans being George W. Bush in 2004 with 44 percent, dropping to 31 percent for John McCain, and at the moment, 14 percent for Mitt Romney, who has taken a very hard line backing Arizona and other states which have passed discriminatory profiling laws.

If that 14 percent vote holds, or only goes up a bit, then the projection is that Barack Obama will win about 55 percent of the popular vote against Mitt Romney, what could be termed a landslide, since it insures that Obama would win all Hispanic growth states, including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, and get a larger percentage of the vote in Texas, Arizona and Georgia, all states that over time would trend Democratic in future elections. This does not include other states that are certain to go Democratic in 2012, including California, New York and Illinois.

If Mitt Romney won John McCain’s percentage of Hispanic-Latino votes, he would still lose the popular vote by 54-46, and if he won the 44 percent that George W. Bush won in 2004, he would still lose by 53-47 under typical simulations.

When Mitt Romney said last weekend that if he does not improve his percentage of Hispanic-Latino support, he is finished, he was absolutely correct!

But it is also the Independent and women’s vote that is crucial, plus the issue whether Evangelical Christians, who think of the Mormon Church as a cult, will be willing to come out and vote for Romney, when he is so much a chameleon, hard to believe what he says, whether he has any principles , and whether he can be trusted to keep his present right wing views.

If Romney attempts to modify his right wing views on immigration, he would be likely to lose those conservatives who are unhappy with him, while not winning anywhere near the percentage of votes of John McCain or George W. Bush!

So Mitt Romney is in an impossible position electorally in 2012!

What Is Wrong With Mitt Romney? The Bethel Bakery And Liberty University Commencement Speech Controversies

Ronald 3 Comments

What is it about Mitt Romney?

Romney has absolutely no sense of propriety, of what is right to do for his own candidacy!

Romney was in the Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania area the other day, trying to relate to “ordinary people” at a gathering, sitting down at a table to have a snack of cookies, provided by a local bakery of reputation, the Bethel Bakery.

So what does he do? He questions whether the cookies are really made by a local bakery, thinking they are from the local 7 11, and thereby insulting the owner of Bethel Bakery, and making the incident yet another embarrassment, and slip up on the part of Romney, who has had so many, it is easy now to lose count! A basic rule of civility is to NEVER criticize food provided by a host!

Heads have to be shaking and eyes rolling over Romney’s ability to self destruct. YES, we are all human and make mistakes, but if Romney can make this many on silly, stupid things, imagine him making decisions on important matters!

Then, to top it off, it was announced that Romney will give the commencement address to the graduating class at Liberty University in Virginia, operated by the son and heir of the dead Christian TV evangelist, Jerry Falwell, the founder of the Moral Majority and Christian Coalition.

Liberty University, now run by Jerry Falwell, Jr, is infamous for condemning homosexuality, and banning any known gay students or faculty. It is also where Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia wrote a masters thesis, condemning “cohabitors, homosexuals, and fornicators”, and also attacked feminists, working women, and contraception by unmarried couples. He also condemned unwed mothers, no fault divorce, the New Deal, the Great Society, and he called for punishment for pornography, homosexuality and drug abuse by the state! This is the man who is Governor of Virginia, and a front runner for Vice Presidential nominee with Mitt Romney!

This is the university that Mitt Romney has agreed to speak before its graduating class! The question is WHY, as this only contributes to putting Romney “in bed” with the extreme right wing Christian conservative fanatics who promote hate and prejudice! Is this the way that Romney wishes to look to the average independent voter, to the average woman, to the average Hispanic or Latino, and YES, to gay men and women, a substantial number who are registered Republican? Is this his way to overcome his Mormon faith, which many right wing conservatives think of as a cult?

What is wrong with Mitt Romney’s head, his thinking pattern, his wife even (who could convince him of the stupidity of doing a commencement speech for the Jerry Falwell school)?

This is why Mitt Romney is going to be a total disaster for the Republican Party in 2012. He makes one long for John McCain in 2008, Bob Dole in 1996, and get this, even George W. Bush in 2000, with his vision of a “Compassionate Conservatism”, before the disaster of the Bush Presidency had a chance to emerge over the next eight years!

Lack Of Enthusiasm For Mitt Romney Within Republican Party: Danger Sign For November!

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Mitt Romney is the least popular GOP Presidential candidate in modern history, ten points lower than John McCain was in 2008.

He is losing among women, Independents, Hispanics and Latinos, based on many public opinion polls.

He has a lack of enthusiasm among religious voters, Southern whites, Midwesterners, conservatives, and even young voters

His major support are those over $100,000 income, corporate interests, and people of his own Mormon faith in states such as Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Arizona.

Romney simply has no natural constituency, and as things stand now, he could very well lose by a massive landslide, with Barack Obama winning close to his electoral vote total of 365 in 2008, and possibly winning more electoral votes!

Mitt Romney has become, at least at this point, a totally uninspiring candidate, and the odds of his recovery to the point of winning the Presidency seem extremely remote!

While Gone In DC, The Republican Presidential Race Ended!

Ronald 4 Comments

While the author was gone on vacation in Washington, DC, the Republican race finally came to an end.

Now, some of you might say that Ron Paul is still in the race, but let’s be serious: Mitt Romney is the GOP Presidential nominee, with both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum having stopped campaigning.

This does not mean that Mitt Romney has an easy road to the nomination, as he still needs several hundred delegates, and has not received the endorsement of either Gingrich or Santorum.

Newt Gingrich left the race primarily for economic issues, and Rick Santorum left due to the illness of his youngest daughter, Bella, and his realization that he might very well lose the Pennsylvania Primary two weeks from now.

By both leaving the race, they remain eligible for consideration in 2016, if Romney does not win the White House, even though one would have to say that for either to believe in their hearts that they have a real chance to be President in the future is purely delusional!

But Mitt Romney now has to face the reality, that in seeking the GOP nomination and selling his soul to the right wing of his party, he has lost credibility completely among middle of the road Americans, and yet is not trusted by the right wing or the evangelical Christians who look on his Mormon faith as a cult.

So Romney cannot be sure that evangelicals and conservatives will actually vote for him in November, and therefore, could lose some of the South and Midwest.

But he also trails terribly behind Barack Obama with women, Hispanics and Latinos, and Independents, and it will be hard to recoup.

And in polls, Romney is not well liked or trusted, and comes across as distant, aloof, and not able to relate to us.

And with Tax Day coming at the end of this week, the Democrats will do their best to remind us that Romney has not released his tax returns, except for the year 2010, while providing John McCain with 23 years of returns when he was considered a possible running mate by McCain in 2008. Why not release all of these tax returns?

The answer is that it is clear that Romney has something to hide, including the reports that he has loads of his $250 million fortune in the Cayman Islands and in Swiss banks!

That makes Romney look very unpatriotic, and unwilling to do his fair share to help the nation, seeing paying higher taxes due to his good fortune, as something that a rich person should feel for the blessing that he was able to accomplish his wealth, and owes it to the country to help its future, rather than just go by the legal limitation of the minimum he needs to pay, due to accounting tricks!

Romney is now said to be “mischievous and naughty” by his wife Anne, often acting like one of their sons, but that does not ring true, and even if so, it does not make up for his unwillingness to understand the plight of the average American, and his stiffness and aloofness and reserve around people he cannot easily relate to.

Americans like to feel that they like their President, and Romney is, unfortunately, simply not a warm and pleasant personality.

That, above all, is his ultimate doom, as it was for Thomas E. Dewey in 1948, who Romney looks more like by the day–an intelligent, qualified person who simply could not relate to the American people he wished to govern.

And get this: both Dewey and Romney grew up in Michigan! Dewey’s campaign against Harry Truman in 1948 went from a landslide lead to a total collapse, against a President who gave the Republican Party “hell”. In the case of Romney, he is way behind with little prospect of recovery, but also running against an incumbent President who is copying the Truman method of giving the Republicans “hell”!

Republicans, Women And Hispanics: Antagonism Self Induced And Irretrievable!

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The Republican Party has been suicidal in this Presidential campaign, and likely nominee Mitt Romney, as well as Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, have all effectively killed off the chances of the party wooing large percentages of two key voting groups–women and Hispanics.

Joe Scarborough, former Florida Congressman and host of Morning Joe on MSNBC has warned the party of the self induced damage they are doing, but the party leadership and candidates have been tone deaf to it.

And now a new series of polls show Mitt Romney way down in percentage with both women and Hispanics, and with seven months to go, no one, realistically, can see how the former Massachusetts Governor is going to turn the tide in his favor.

Trying to appeal to the right wing has harmed Romney in the nation, while not convincing the right wing to like him.

In the South and Midwest, in more rural and evangelical Christian areas, Romney has been unable to win, or promote loyalty for his candidacy. It is still doubtful that large numbers of these voters will come out for Romney in the Fall campaign.

So the story goes that he must pick a very conservative running mate for the Vice Presidency to appeal to these right wingers, but if so, it will only guarantee that Romney will lose the middle, the center of the population–including women, Hispanics, and also the all important Independents.

Without women, Hispanics, and Independents, how is Romney going to win the all important “swing states” in the South, the Midwest, and the Mountain States, as well as New Hampshire?

The answer is that the election is effectively over, as Romney cannot appeal to the “swing states” adequately, and cannot count on strong right wing support either.

What it comes down to is that Romney, by being a person who one cannot trust as to his views and beliefs, has effectively alienated the middle, while not being trusted even now by the right wing of his party.

And if, by some miracle, Romney won, he would see his dark hair turn grey quickly, as he would have no natural constituency to support him!

The Democrats would fight to weaken him, and the Republicans would feel no loyalty, and would work to move him to the extreme right, making it impossible to get anything done!

If one thinks Barack Obama has had troubles getting things done, imagine a President Romney trying to get things done, whether with Democratic or Republican control of the Congress!

Florida In Play For Democrats In 2012: A Shock To Republicans!

Ronald 1 Comment

Florida has become in many ways the center of right wing conservatism, what with the election of Governor Rick Scott, Senator Marco Rubio, and Congressman Allen West in the midterm 2010 elections.

The state legislature is about three fourths Republican as well, and only six Democrats serve Florida in the House of Representatives.

No one is saying that the Democrats are about to take over state politics, as that will be a long haul, but public opinion polls show that Barack Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in state polls about the Presidential election, and that Democratic Senator Bill Nelson has a big lead over Congressman Connie Mack IV, and that former appointed Senator George Lemieux is not even in the equation for the upcoming race.

The odds for Lois Frankel to overcome Adam Hasner for the Palm Beach County seat, that West held before he chose to move to a new congressional district in northern Palm Beach County and Martin and St. Lucie Counties, is seen as very good. And West is facing a major challenge in a young, charismatic CPA named Patrick Erin Murphy.

This is probably due to the improving economy, and the growing alienation nationwide of Independents, non Cuban Hispanics, and women to the GOP agenda.

Since Florida is the ultimate “swing state”, this might improve the possibility of Senator Rubio as the Vice Presidential running mate of Mitt Romney, even though Rubio keeps on saying that he has no interest, at age 41, rising to that level.

Florida will certainly be paid a lot of attention in this year’s political races!

Are Virginia, North Carolina And Colorado The Ultimate Deciders Of The Presidential Election Of 2012?

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A new study comes up with the conclusion that the ultimate swing states for the Presidential Election Of 2012 are Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado.

These states have in common the following: growing numbers of well educated, high income voters with technology expertise in significant technology hubs; plus large increases in Hispanic and Latino population; and large components of women who are also more educated and professional and will not tolerate the attack on women that the Republican Party is engaged in nationally, in many states, and on conservative talk radio.

These states all voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but switched to Barack Obama in 2008, and the trend toward the Democrats, including also Independent voters, seems hard to reverse by the Republican Party and its candidate for President, whoever that will be!

Maine, The Independent State Politically! Angus King Likely Replacing Olympia Snowe

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Maine, a state which has had independent minded Senators and Governors, is about to have an Independent as the likely successor to independent minded Republican Senator Olympia Snowe, who has announced her retirement after a long career, due to frustration over the total stalemate and deadlock in the US Senate.

Former Governor Angus King, who had served as a legislative aide to Senator William Hathaway in the 1970s, has only run for office as an Independent, and was one of two Independent Governors in the late 1990s and early 2000s, along with Governor Jesse Ventura of Minnesota.

In the 1970s, Maine had Independent Governor James Longley, making them an extremely unusual state, in having had two Independents serve in that office in modern times.

King was Governor from 1995-2003, and now will be his own man, while if he wins, probably caucusing with the Democrats, as Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman do now. Major Democrats have decided not to challenge him, as his public opinion ratings are high, and the Republicans are almost certain to lose that seat that Snowe is vacating.

Three way races are not uncommon in Maine, as even the Governor’s race in 2010 was three way, leading to Tea Party favorite Paul LePage being elected Governor over a second place Independent and a third place Democrat.

Maine has had distinguished US Senators who have been independent minded if not actually running as Independents, including Margaret Chase Smith, Edmund Muskie, George Mitchell, William Cohen, Olympia Snowe, and Susan Collins.

So the likelihood of at least two Independents in the next Senate, King and Sanders, is extremely certain, with Lieberman retiring from the Senate.