Iowa Caucuses

Iowa A “Free For All” One Month Out From Democratic Presidential Caucuses

Ronald 3 Comments

One month out from the Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucuses, and it is clear that a “Free For All” is developing, with any of five candidates seen as the potential first place finisher.

One poll shows a tie among Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg, but to think that next door Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar should be ignored is an unwise assumption, as she has just completed visiting all 99 counties in the Hawkeye State, and that could lead to a surprise as her stock seems to be rising.

Also, Elizabeth Warren cannot be dismissed, as she is a fighter, and really, anything could happen in Iowa.

At the same time, there is a growing feeling that Bernie Sanders could, in theory, win Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, all in February, and with his large financial base from ordinary citizens, he could be the Democratic Presidential nominee, if he does indeed sweep the first three states, as that could create momentum for Super Tuesday on March 3.

Can Michael Bloomberg Ignore Iowa And New Hampshire And Have A Chance To Be The Democratic Presidential Nominee?

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The quick answer to the above question is YES, but it would be a tragedy for the nation if simply having billions of dollars fortune, and spending tens of millions of dollars to run commercials, was able to elect a President.

Michael Bloomberg was an effective NYC Mayor for three terms, but he was also controversial with some of his policies, including his dealings with racial minorities, and his trying to control the size of soda bottles and other sugary drinks.

On the other hand, he has promoted gun control, and fought against tobacco and oil interests, and is a big promoter of taking action on climate change.

And he is certainly an arrogant man, who thinks he can “own” his employees and control what his journalists at Bloomberg News report and investigate.

The fact that he has gained a few percent of the vote due to his spending $57 million on commercials, while Kamala Harris was forced out of the Presidential race for lack of funding, is totally infuriating.

This is the result of the disastrous Supreme Court decision in Citizens United in 2011, destroying and corrupting our political system in a despicable manner.

Bloomberg would be a vast improvement over Donald Trump, but seriously, it is hoped that the Democrats will not be manipulated by his commercials to nominate him. His ability to draw attention from voters, without participating in many caucuses and primaries, and avoiding engagement in debates, should NOT lead to his nomination!

South Carolina Primary: Why Do African Americans In That State Favor Joe Biden Over Kamala Harris And Cory Booker?

Ronald 5 Comments

One of the great mysteries of the 2020 Presidential campaign is the massive support in public opinion polls for Joe Biden in the South Carolina primary coming up in February.

Biden has a mixed record on race, considering that he opposed school busing in the 1970s, and was a cosponsor of a tough crime bill in 1994, which led to a large number of African Americans being incarcerated, some unjustly, by a very harsh piece of legislation.

It seems Biden’s support may be due more to the fact that he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama, and yet Obama has purposely not endorsed his former Vice President.

Right now, Joe Biden is not doing well in public opinion polls in Iowa or New Hampshire, so South Carolina, with its large African American population, may be his ultimate life line.

But the debate is why are not Senator Kamala Harris of California and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey doing well in South Carolina, as one would have thought?

And also, will the other African American candidate, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, late in entering the Presidential race, perform any better than Harris or Booker?

Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Could Affect Democratic Presidential Contest,With So Many Senators Unable To Campaign During Trial

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The upcoming Donald Trump impeachment trial is likely to have an effect on the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Since it is likely to be held in January, a month before the Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, South Carolina Primary, and Nevada Caucuses, the six Senators (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Michael Bennet) who are candidates for President will be unable to campaign, on days of the trial.

They are required to sit in their Senate seats and listen to the testimony, without speaking, and cannot choose to do otherwise, as it would be against protocol.

If it stretches through the whole month of February, they will not be able to campaign in the 14 states scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday, including California, Texas, Virginia, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Tennessee, among others.

That should help such candidates as Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg, and Deval Patrick.

Whether the impeachment trial will ultimately change the dynamics long term of the race will be interesting to see if it evolves.

Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker: All These Candidates On Free Fall

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California Senator Kamala Harris, former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker are all in free fall as Presidential candidates.

Raising money, doing well in polls, and stirring media interest has been very difficult, and unless the situation changes drastically in the next two months, it could be some of these potential candidates may not survive to the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, and certainly not beyond then.

Any of these candidates could still, theoretically, be in the running for becoming the Vice Presidential choice of the Presidential candidate, of course.

But it is reaching the time when the number of candidates needs to dwindle down dramatically, in order for the Democrats to have competitive candidates debate in a smaller group, and in a more serious in depth manner.

The Battle For The Moderate Center Among Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg

Ronald 1 Comment

It is becoming clear that the battle for the Moderate Center in the Democratic Party looks as if it is down to Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, and Michael Bloomberg.

So two old guys who would hit 80 in their second year in office or a guy who would reach age 40 in his second year of office!

The trend seems toward Pete, who is gaining nationally, and in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Joe will probably not triumph until at least South Carolina, and Bloomberg is expecting his media advertising to insure he will do well on Super Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the women in the race, particularly Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, have slipped, while Amy Klobuchar is gaining slightly, but still not a major factor at this point.

Of course, trying to predict what will happen in February and March in late November-early December is not reliable, but it is all part of the fun of watching a Presidential race!

Pete Buttigieg Soars To First In Iowa Caucus Poll

Ronald 5 Comments

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has surged to first place in a new Iowa Caucus poll, the Monmouth University poll, an amazing rise for a mayor of a small sized city in a red state. He has gained 14 points since the summer, rising from 8 percent to 22 percent, three points ahead of Joe Biden.

It is time to start seeing Mayor Pete as a serious contender, rather than as a curiosity.

His major negative is that he has almost no support in the African American community, which right now is smitten with Joe Biden, a surprise when one thinks that either Kamala Harris or Cory Booker would have a strong support in that community, and yet does not do so.

Mayor Pete being gay and having a husband will alienate evangelical Christians, who, however, would never vote Democratic in any case.

One might say that having an urban executive government record of 8 years in South Bend, Indiana, is not a plus, but actually, being a mayor is often more on the front lines of what is America than being a Governor of a Southern state, such as Arkansas (Bill Clinton); or as Georgia one term of four years (Jimmy Carter); or two years as Governor (Woodrow Wilson in New Jersey); or four years as Governor (Franklin D. Roosevelt in New York); or no government experience (Donald Trump); or a much shorter one year mayoralty as Grover Cleveland in Buffalo, New York, or Calvin Coolidge in Northampton, Massachusetts, or Andrew Johnson in Greeneville, Tennessee.

American history is full of surprises, so do not write Mayor Pete off, as he might very well be the Democratic Presidential nominee and the 46th President of the United States!

The Two Democrats Who Might Replace Joe Biden, And Both Are From The Midwest Battleground

Ronald 11 Comments

Further thought and analysis on the Ohio Presidential debate of Tuesday makes this blogger and scholar believe that two Midwesterners–South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar—come out as the stars of the debate.

Both were very strong in promoting a moderate center left vision of the Democratic Party, which gives the party a better chance of success against Donald Trump.

Being from Indiana and Minnesota respectively gives either or both a better opportunity to contest the states lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016 by small margins.

So if Joe Biden slips, which seems very possible, both offer an equivalent vision of what Biden stands for, rather than the more leftist Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders.

There are still three and a half months to the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, so despite early indications that Biden, Warren, and Sanders have a dominant position, there is still time for alternatives, and the most likely, clearly, are Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

The Likely Long Term Result Of The Third Democratic Presidential Debate: Probably Seven Of The Ten Are Still Viable

Ronald 3 Comments

Upon further reflection about the Houston Democratic Presidential debate last Thursday, it would seem that three candidates have lost the likelihood of having a real chance to be the nominee of the party in 2020.

Those would be:

Andrew Yang, who offered ten families $1,000 a month for the next year as part of his promotion of $1,000 a month for all adults over the age of 18, which drew some attention when he said it, but is seen as a death knell for his candidacy, even though Republican President Richard Nixon suggested a similar plan of $500 a month nearly fifty years ago.

Julian Castro, who by, seemingly, bringing up ageism as an issue about Joe Biden, made many enemies, and it is likely to derail his campaign, and probably kills any chance of him being the Vice Presidential nominee.

Beto O’Rourke, who by calling for mandatory buyback of AR 15s and AK 47s gave great propaganda to gun enthusiasts and the National Rifle Association, who will use what he said against Democrats to scare gun owners to vote Republican, not an insubstantial number. While one can understand O’Rourke’s sincere emotions after the El Paso and Odessa-Midland shootings in August, it is a guaranteed defeat for any Democrat to follow through as O’Rourke has, not because it is wrong, but because it is not winnable in a national election, despite all of the mass murders that have occurred in recent years.

Additionally, since the ageism issue has been brought up, it could be that the two oldest potential nominees–Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden–who would reach 80 early in the next term, might find that their candidacies might worry and concern voters, especially at a time when Donald Trump is showing signs of mental decline, even though he is four and five years younger than Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, respectively.

So more attention will likely be paid to other candidates—Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, and Kamala Harris.

With 141 days to the Iowa Caucuses, it is far from certain what will happen in the battle for the Democratic nomination for President.

The Third Of The Month A Crucial Day–February 3, March 3, November 3, 2020

Ronald 11 Comments

It is now 14 months until the Presidential Election of 2020–November 3.

It is also 5 months to the first voting on the Presidential nominee candidates of the Democratic Party, when the Iowa Caucuses take place–February 3.

It is also 6 months until Super Tuesday, where California and Texas, the two largest states in population, vote, along with 12 other states in the Primaries including Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Virginia.

We are now in the midst of the most crucial period of the upcoming Presidential elections, when the fate of the nation will be decided by which Democratic nominee will challenge Donald Trump, and work to prevent the complete destruction of the American Republic established 243 years ago by the Founding Fathers.