Iowa

Do Not Believe Polls Which Predict GOP Senate Majority!

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So many polls are now predicting that the Republican Party will win control of the US Senate. But polls have been proved wrong before, and the Democrats should not run scared, just run aggressively against the Do Nothing Republicans, similar to what Harry Truman did in 1948!

The Republican Party is wrong on immigration reform; is wrong on the right of workers; is wrong on the treatment of women at work and in their private lives; is wrong on the environment and climate change; is wrong on the need for gun regulation; is wrong on the use of the race card; is wrong on its refusal to promote infrastructure spending; is wrong on its decision to oppose more expenditures on veterans; is wrong in its opposition to ObamaCare; is wrong in its attacks on Social Security and Medicare; is wrong in its efforts to deny voting rights; is wrong in its advocacy of wars everywhere, rather than pursuing diplomacy and peace; is wrong in their anti intellectual, anti science agenda; is wrong in its promotion of theocracy, rather than separation of church and state; and is wrong in its planned strategy to obstruct all judicial and executive nominations and therefore to cripple operation of the courts and government agencies.

The Democrats are likely to keep the following Senators–Mark Pryor of Arkansas; Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; Mark Warner of Virginia; and Mark Begich of Alaska.

They have a good chance of defeating Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, with their nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes; win the open Senate seat in Georgia with Michelle Nunn; win the open Senate seat in Iowa with Bruce Braley; win the open Senate seat in Michigan with Gary Peters; and an even chance to win the open West Virginia seat with Natalie Tennant over Republican Shelley Moore Capito.

The only seats seen likely to switch from D to R are: South Dakota and Montana; while the Democrats have a good shot at winning Kentucky and Georgia. With West Virginia possibly going Republican with Capito, and Maine having a chance that Republican Susan Collins loses to Democrat Shanna Bellows, if such happens, it is no gain by the Republicans.

The best prediction is that the Republicans MIGHT gain two seats, falling four states short of the six needed to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader, with him likely to lose to Grimes in Kentucky, in any case.

The worst case scenario for the Democrats is the loss of South Dakota and Montana; and the loss of West Virginia, therefore meaning a Republican gain of three seats!

And in 2016, with two thirds of the seats being Republicans, the Democrats are sure, in an election where their Democratic Presidential nominee will be heavily favored, to win a large number of additional seats, nearing up to 60 from a possible low of 52 in 2014!

Jeb Bush: Can He Do What Only Abraham Lincoln, Richard Nixon, And Ronald Reagan Did?

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Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, the son and brother of two Presidents, is again having his name bandied about for President of the United States, despite his mother, Barbara Bush, saying there have been enough Bushes in the White House, and that more than three or four families have talent for the Presidency. While saying that repeatedly, she always adds that her son is best qualified to be President, so it is an odd statement, to say the least!

But Speaker of the House John Boehner went out of his way to suggest Jeb Bush would be a great nominee, and certainly, the “Establishment” Republicans on Wall Street see him as more likely now than ever before, as their front line of defense against the Tea Party Movement and Ted Cruz et al, and the libertarians and Rand Paul.

Both Cruz and Paul, and really EVERY other suggested nominee, has all kinds of issues with their extreme right wing tilt. That is why New Jersey Governor Chris Christie seemed so appealing to many, after his wide victory for a second term. But now the scandals that have erupted have besmirched his reputation, and in any case, Christie would have had great trouble winning in Iowa, South Carolina, and other states as he is from the Northeast, and seen as too much like John McCain and Mitt Romney, failed GOP Presidential candidates, who are disliked by right wing talk show hosts, conservative think tanks, and the Tea Party right wingers.

So who is left for the “Establishment”? Really, only former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who also was Ambassador to China, under President Obama, an excellent, and really the best choice, but with not a chance in hell of being able to compete, because he is too “moderate” by comparison, too smart, too intelligent, too interested in science and world affairs, too independent minded, and even not allowing his Mormon faith to dictate public policy views!

Huntsman would have the best chance to win of any Republican, but the party has a death wish, and he will not be the nominee. More likely, it would be one of a large group of horrible candidates, including, not only Cruz and Paul, but also Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, and other “nightmarish” candidates!

So the only place to turn for the “Establishment” is to another Bush, who is comparatively a moderate conservative, who has not come across as a “whacko” in office and in his public statements. He has shown tolerance on immigration issues, as with his brother, President George W. Bush, and he seems to have a comparatively open mind.

But his challenge, beyond overcoming the Bush name, after the damage his brother did in eight years in the Presidency, is that Jeb Bush has been out of public office for ten years by 2016, after eight years served as Governor of Florida. While a few military people, including retired ones, have become President, only three non military people have become President with extended periods out of public office.

Abraham Lincoln had 12 years since his one term in the House of Representatives, until his Presidential triumph in 1860.

Richard Nixon had eight years since his defeat for the Presidency in 1960, until his victory in 1968.

Ronald Reagan had six years since his Governorship of California until his victory in 1980.

Note Nixon and Reagan had a shorter number of years, than Jeb Bush has, and Nixon ran for Governor of California in 1962, and Reagan competed for the Presidential nomination in 1976, both two years after they left public office.

And Lincoln, while twelve years since his last time in public office, ran for and lost the Senate race in Illinois against Senator Stephen Douglas in 1858, ten years after his one term in the House of Representatives, and just two years before he won the Presidency.

So Jeb Bush really has no exact comparison to Nixon and Reagan, and comes closest to Lincoln.

The ultimate question is whether Jeb Bush can copy Lincoln, or even Nixon or Reagan. The betting odds on his nomination are less than 50 percent for now, and far less in a race against any Democrat in 2016, particularly Hillary Clinton!

The Top Political Comedians Of 2013

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Most political observers are well aware of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert and the Comedy Channel, and find their political humor engaging.

But really, both Stewart and Colbert, and other comedians who do politics, including on Saturday Night Live, have so much material due to the fact that there are people in politics who make total fools of themselves, and seem to have no shame.
https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/
Below are listed the author’s top choices for “Political Comedians of the Year 2013”, but in no special order.

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R) of Minnesota
Congressman Steve King (R) of Iowa
Congressman Louie Gohmert (R) of Texas
Congressman Steve Stockman (R) of Texas
Congressman Paul Broun (R) of Georgia
Congressman Tom Price (R) of Georgia
Senator Ted Cruz (R) of Texas
Senator Rand Paul (R) of Kentucky
Mayoral contender and former Congressman Anthony Weiner (D) of New York
Mayor and former Congressman Bob Filner (D) of San Diego
Former Governor Sarah Palin (R) of Alaska

Governors And The Presidential Election Of 2016

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It has often been pointed out that more Governors have been elected President over the course of American history than Senators.

From 1900 on, the following Presidents were earlier Governors of their states—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

The argument is that being a Governor prepares one better for the Presidency than serving in the national government in Washington, DC.

Whether this is true or not, the argument now is that the national government, and particularly the Congress, is so engaged in stalemate and gridlock, that the best choice in the Presidential Election of 2016 would be to go once again for a Governor or former Governor, as occurred four times of the past six Presidents, and seven of the past ten national elections.

So if that is the case, what is the market among Governors?

First, the Democratic side:

Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Mark Warner of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Jerry Brown of California
Howard Dean of Vermont
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Dannel Malloy of Connecticut

Now the Republican side

Chris Christie of New Jersey
Jeb Bush of Florida
Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Mike Pence of Indiana
Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Rick Scott of Florida

So, at least in theory, nine former or sitting Democratic Governors and twelve former or sitting Republican Governors are potential Presidential nominees.

Having said that, it is clear that some of these two groups are highly unlikely to be a candidate, or to have any realistic chance to be the nominee, including for the Democrats: Brown, Dean, Malloy, and Patrick, and for the Republicans: Scott, Martinez, Sandoval, Pence, Haley, and sadly (because he would be the best choice for the GOP long term), Huntsman.

For the Democrats, O’Malley and Cuomo and Warner (who has also served in the Senate), would be the best choices, were it not for the “800 pound gorilla” of Hillary Clinton and the slightly smaller version of Joe Biden. Were it not for them, these three listed Democrats would be a great term to compete for the nomination. Hickenlooper is also a good candidate, but would not be considered as likely to have a good chance, and Schweitzer might very well run, based on recent comments and activities, but the odds for him, especially against Clinton and Biden as things now stand, are extremely high of failure, and even of being mostly ignored by political pundits.

For the Republicans, Christie and Bush would be the most likely to have a real opportunity for the Presidency, but with the Tea Party Movement, neither is very popular, to say the least. Walker might be a better bet on that score, with Jindal seeming less attractive as time goes by, and Perry a real long shot based on his past performances. The “dark horse” to watch would be Kasich, who had a long career on Capitol Hill and knows how Washington works, and despite his mixed record in so many areas, is personally appealing, unlike any of those listed In this paragraph, in many ways the most appealing personally other than Huntsman.

If one had to bet which of each list would have the best chance, all things being equal, one would say O’Malley for the Democrats and Kasich for the Republicans, but the odds are that it will be someone from Capitol Hill–Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden for the Democrats, and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan for the Republicans, with the Democrats having the clear edge in the Electoral College, because of the support of the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast, and the likelihood of strong support in the upper Midwest and Illinois and Iowa, along with Virginia, an unmatchable scenario for the Republicans, as we look at the political situation as 2013 ends, but always subject to changing times that are unpredictable.

Des Moines Register Poll Of Iowa Democrats Prefers “Fresh Face” In 2016

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A Des Moines Register Poll of Democrats in Iowa shows that they prefer a “fresh face” for the Democratic nomination for President in 2016, over a more experienced candidate such as Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, who together have about 70 years in public governing service.

Since Iowa is the first state to have a say in the nominating process, this could encourage “newer” faces, such as Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York, Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, soon to be Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, to “throw their hat in the ring”, a term developed by former President Theodore Roosevelt, when he announced he was running again for President in 1912.

This blogger has suggested earlier that such a development might be good for the Democratic Party, particularly at a time when the Republican Party will have a much younger nominee than either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden.

Iowa Democratic Party Steak Fry Shows Experience (Joe Biden) And Youth (Julian Castro)

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This past weekend, the Iowa Democratic Party held its Annual Steak Fry celebration, hosted by Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, bringing together two Democratic stars–one of experience and one of youth.

Vice President Joe Biden, a colleague and friend of Senator Harkin for the past thirty years, was there to remind people that he and Barack Obama had worked every day in the White House to advance the middle class, which they have done an excellent job on, considering the terrible economic collapse occurring just five years ago in mid September.

There is no question of Biden’s great credentials for the Presidency, although he will have to deal with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and other Democrats of a younger generation, with at least one likely to join the fray for the 2016 Democratic Presidential nomination to succeed Obama.

So the youth of the party was represented by San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who is 39 today, and runs the seventh largest city in America. Castro made a very good impression at the Democratic National Convention in 2012, reminding many of Barack Obama’s fantastic performance at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, which catapulted the Illinois Senator into the 2008 Presidential race and the White House!

Castro would be 42 in 2016, and would bring a Latino into the Presidential race, a sign of the future growth of the United States. He is very charismatic, handsome, and well spoken, but the question is whether he would challenge both Biden and Clinton if they were to run.

Certainly, Biden and Castro got along famously, but they represent a difference of 32 years, nearly two generations of leadership apart, at ages 42 and 74 in 2016.

Castro made clear that the Democratic Party belief in helping those in need had made a difference in his life plan, as well as that of his identical twin brother, Congressman Joaquin Castro.

Without question, Castro would be a good choice if youth and promise matter, but Biden has the edge on experience and knowledge and connections.

In any case, either is far better than any Republican considered likely to enter the Presidential race in 2016!

Michele Bachmann, Steve King, Louie Gohmert (Three House Republican Wingnuts) Remake History!

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The three leading House Republican wingnuts–Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, Steve King of Iowa, and Louie Gohmert of Texas– were in Egypt last week, hailing the military coup against Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi.

And in the process of backing dictatorship, the three loonies made a statement about the 12th Anniversary of September 11 that is totally false and misleading.

They said the Muslim Brotherhood, the group from which Morsi emerged, and won a democratic election, the first in modern Egyptian history, were responsible for the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon!

The facts are, and even intelligent, sane Republicans know this, that it was Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden who were responsible for that dastardly deed!

Labeling all Muslims as guilty of a horrible deed is what we call scapegoating, and only makes the ability of the world to learn to coexist, since there is no way to eliminate any religion, no matter how objectionable to people of other faiths, so much more difficult!

These members of Congress bring the dignity of the House of Representatives and the Republican Party to a new, all time low!

“Natural Born Citizens” And The Issue of George Romney, John McCain, And Ted Cruz

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With Texas Senator Ted Cruz angling to run for President, showing up in Iowa this past weekend, the question arises as to whether he is a “natural born citizen” and eligible to be our President.

The thought of Cruz being the nominee of the Republican Party, and a possible occupant of the White House, is literally horrifying, as the Texas Senator is like a bull in a china shop, out to antagonize and confront Democrats, progressives, the news media, and anyone who is not a believer, as he is, in the Tea Party Movement.

So Cruz has been criticized by John McCain and other Senate Republicans, as well as the Republican “Establishment”, as he represents a radical right wing extremism, who has no problem in making enemies, and showing a level of arrogance and hubris rare in a first term, first year Senator.

In many ways, Cruz would be worse than Barry Goldwater represented in his right wing views in the Presidential Election of 1964, showing just how far right the GOP has gone in recent years.

It seems clear to most observers that Cruz could not unite the GOP, and would be likely to be an electoral disaster against Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, or any other Democrat, but one can never be too confident or too cocky to believe that the world could not turn inside out and upside down in a time of difficult economic conditions.

This author will spend a lot of time on Cruz as we get closer to the 2016 primaries and caucuses, as he is certainly going to be an important factor in the Presidential campaign of 2016.

But right now, the question is whether Cruz, born in Canada of a US citizen mother and a Cuban immigrant father, is even eligible to run for President in the first place.

This will be the third time this issue has arisen, as Michigan Governor George Romney, a likely candidate in the Presidential Election of 1968, was born in Mexico of American Mormon parents, and John McCain, who was the GOP nominee in the Presidential Election of 2008, was born in the Panama Canal Zone.

Romney never got that close to the nomination, and not much was made of his Mexican birth at the time, while McCain had little challenge on his birth, as he was born to a military family in what was then US territory in the Panama Canal Zone.

While one might wish that Cruz was ineligible to run for President, there is unlikely to be a serious challenge to his candidacy for the Presidential Election of 2016.

It is also ironic that these three cases all involve Republicans, and yet a person born in Hawaii, Barack Obama, two years after it became the 50th state, still faces challenges from “Birthers” who contend he was born in Kenya! This would be unlikely to be an issue were Obama not a Democrat, but rather a Republican, and of course, if he was white, instead of African American! What a sad state of affairs!

Iowa Republican Congressman Steve King Has Gone Too Far In His Depiction Of Hispanic-Latino Immigrants!

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Iowa Republican Congressman Steve King is well known as one of the wackiest, craziest, and most divisive members of the Republican caucus in the House of Representatives, sharing that distinction with Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Texas Congressman Louie Gohmert, and in the recent past, former Florida Congressman Allen West and former Illinois Congressman Joe Walsh!

King has depicted Hispanic and Latino immigrants as “dogs”, “livestock”, and as “drug dealers”, and he has also called for an electrified barbed wire fence between Mexico and the United States. He is against the DREAM Act, to allow the law abiding children of immigrants who came here illegally to be able to move toward eventual citizenship, including a requirement for military service or college education!

Speaker of the House John Boehner at least had the good sense to condemn King’s remarks as hateful, and Eric Cantor, the House Majority Leader, said it was inexcusable rhetoric.

But that is not enough, as to spew such hatred on the floor of Congress should lead to a censure of Steve King for incendiary behavior unbecoming a member of Congress. The Republican Party needs to repudiate such language in strong terms, and work to undermine any influence this nightmare member of their caucus has!

If not, the GOP is guaranteed to lose any opportunity to gain, even in the long run, the support of a substantial percentage of those of Hispanic or Latino origin!

Loss Of Two Progressives In 2014–Senators Tom Harkin And Jay Rockefeller

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It is sad news that two leading Democratic progressives in the US Senate—Tom Harkin of Iowa and Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia—have decided to retire in 2014, leaving a major gap that could affect the Senate balance, although both would have come under fire from Tea Party Republicans for sure if they had run, each for a sixth term.

Both have served since election in 1984, and Harkin had been in the US House of Representatives for ten years previously, and Rockefeller had been Governor of his state for eight years previously.

So both have served their state and nation for approximately 40 years, and are leaving in their mid 70s, a good time to leave, and an opportunity for fresh blood to come into the Senate.

Both were great public servants, and Harkin was this blogger’s personal favorite for President when he ran in 1992 in a field including Bill Clinton.

Both will be missed, and it will be hard to replace them with men or women with their commitment to principle, decency, and humanity!