Jim Webb

The Democrats Need A Competitive Presidential Race: Don’t Put All Eggs In One Basket!

Hillary Clinton may end up as the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2016, and has the theoretical edge to defeat any Republican opponent!

But there is a need for a competitive race, as it would make Hillary a stronger candidate and nominee, to have to defend and enunciate her views on her record and on the future!

And since Hillary had a health issue, there is always a chance that a health crisis could arise, and if there is no opponent in the Democratic Party, that could lead to the Democrats throwing way the Presidency if something went wrong, which is unpredictable, so there is a need for a backup plan and for opponents in the Presidential race.

The new revelations about the Clinton Foundation, and questions about Hillary’s tenure as Secretary of State, also make Clinton a more controversial candidate, who needs a closer look before the Democrats give their soul to her!

It does now seem that former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley; former Rhode Island Governor and Senator Lincoln Chafee; former Virginia Senator Jim Webb; and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders will soon make it a multi candidate race, and even Vice President Joe Biden may yet decide to enter the race.

All of this is all to the long term good of the Democratic Party and the nation, no matter what the eventual results might be!

Vast Age Differences Of Presidential Opponents In Modern American History

It has become a reality that in many Presidential elections, the age difference between the two competing Presidential contenders is vast.

Franklin D. Roosevelt was 20 years older than Thomas E. Dewey in the Presidential Election Of 1944.

Harry Truman was 18 years older than Thomas E. Dewey in the Presidential Election of 1948.

Dwight D. Eisenhower was 10 years older than Adlai Stevenson in the Presidential Elections of 1952 and 1956.

Richard Nixon was 9 and a half years older than George McGovern in the Presidential Election of 1972.

Gerald Ford was 11 years older than Jimmy Carter in the Presidential Election of 1976.

Ronald Reagan was 13 years older than Jimmy Carter in the Presidential Election of 1980.

Ronald Reagan was 17 years older than Walter Mondale in the Presidential Election of 1984.

George H. W. Bush was 8 years older than Michael Dukakis in the Presidential Election of 1988.

George H. W. Bush was 22 years older than Bill Clinton in the Presidential Election Of 1992.

Bob Dole was 23 years older than Bill Clinton in the Presidential Election Of 1996.

John McCain was 25 years older than Barack Obama in the Presidential Election of 2008.

Mitt Romney was 14 years older than Barack Obama in the Presidential Election of 2012.

Now in 2016, we are very likely to have a vast difference in age between the two major party nominees, assuming Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders or Jim Webb is the Democratic nominee. But 11 of the 13 elections mentioned, the Republican nominee was the much older candidate, but that is likely to be different this time.

If Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie or Scott Walker is the Republican nominee, the difference will be vast, as much as 24 or more years in some of these cases. All of these six were born later than Barack Obama, and a few others, including Rick Santorum. Mike Pence or Jon Huntsman, all born before Obama but still have a double digit age difference from the various Democrats mentioned above.

So far, eight times, the older nominee for President won, and five times, the younger nominee for President won. So the question is what will happen in 2016!

Martin O’Malley: Could He Be The New Jimmy Carter 40 Years Later?

Former Maryland Governor and former Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley has taken steps to make a political observer think that he is about to enter the Democratic Presidential race of 2016, challenging Hillary Clinton at a time when it seems unlikely that anyone else, who could please the liberal left of the party, is ready to plunge into a scenario that so heavily favors the former First Lady, former Senator, and former Secretary of State.

It seems to many as if O’Malley entering the race, if he does, is almost Don Quixote in nature, and some think he is just lobbying to become the Vice Presidential running mate of Hillary Clinton, but also showing the nation his credential for the future.

O’Malley is certainly a liberal, and seen as to the left of Clinton, but one with real executive experience, which Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren do not have.

O’Malley has made a great impression in his two terms as Governor, and he comes across as a real nice guy, who has his own rock band, and is approachable, and has been a critic of Wall Street and the elite billionaires, and has led on such social and economic issues as gay marriage, climate change, and health care, and Maryland leads the nation in educational accomplishments and standards.

He is that rare young Democrat, only 52, while all other Democrats reported as possible candidates are all close to 70 or would be over 70 during the next Presidential term–including Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Jim Webb.

O’Malley represents the new generation of leadership, someone who could appeal to independents and liberal Democrats who look for the long range future, and who has the proper instincts and record of accomplishment, but primarily seen as a long shot “dark horse” at this time.

O’Malley has been compared by some to Jimmy Carter 40 years ago, but O’Malley has a far more impressive background and record than Carter had, and with the disillusionment present in America, much like two generations ago, he could just be the sign of the future, especially if Sanders and or Warren choose not to run.

If Hillary Clinton Flounders, What Then For The Democratic Party?

Behind the scenes, there is growing trepidation that Hillary Clinton might have damaged her candidacy over the private emails issue, and also, the foreign contributions to the Clinton Foundation.

So there are whispers about the issue: What then, for the Democratic Party, if Hillary Clinton flounders?

There are those who think it is time for Vice President Joe Biden to decide to enter the race.

There are those who think it is time for Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren to stop stating she will not run, and to enter the race.

There are those who think that former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, who has been hinting he would run no matter what Hillary Clinton does, to do just that.

There are those who hope that the hints that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders would run are going to lead to his actual candidacy.

There are those who think that former Virginia Senator Jim Webb will offer himself as the more conservative alternative within the Democratic Party, as he has hinted earlier.

But now there are other whisperings, including Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and or New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand thinking of entering the race, with women particularly looking to Gillibrand as the younger version of Hillary Clinton.

And, believe it or not, there is a “blast from the past”, with three former Presidential seekers thought to be considering getting back into the competition for the Presidency: Jerry Brown, John Kerry, and Al Gore!

Imagine a candidate who last ran in 1992 against Bill Clinton, running against his wife 16 years later, and having first run for President in 1976 and 1980 against Jimmy Carter!

Imagine the Democratic Presidential nominee of 12 years ago choosing to leave the State Department and decide to run, possibly against the brother of the man, George W. Bush, that he lost to in 2004!

Imagine the Democratic Presidential nominee of 2000, who won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote in a Supreme Court decision, Bush V. Gore, that gave Bush the Presidency, now coming back nearly a generation, and possibly running against the man, Jeb Bush, whose state gave his brother George W. the Presidency.

Realize that only two Presidential nominees ran for and won the Presidency as long as 12 years after being on the national ballot–Henry Clay in 1844 after 1832, and Franklin D. Roosevelt losing as Vice Presidential nominee in 1920 and coming back to win the White House in 1932!

For history and political junkies, the possible scenarios are totally fascinating!

Presidents And Age: An Issue For 2016!

Historically, Americans have tended to vote for a President who is younger than his predecessor, sometimes dramatically so, as with John F. Kennedy after Dwight D. Eisenhower (27 years difference); as with Bill Clinton after George H. W. Bush (22 years difference); as with Barack Obama after George W. Bush (15 years difference); and as with Jimmy Carter after Gerald Ford (11 years difference).

In fact, only the following Presidents were older than their predecessors: William Henry Harrison, Zachary Taylor, James Buchanan, Chester Alan Arthur, Benjamin Harrison, William Howard Taft, Woodrow Wilson, Lyndon B. Johnson, and Ronald Reagan. And only W. H. Harrison, Taylor, Buchanan, Lyndon B. Johnson, and Reagan were five years or more older than their predecessors.

But now, in 2016, we are likely, almost certainly, to elect a President who will be substantially older than Barack Obama. This includes Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders,Jim Webb, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Dr. Benjamin Carson, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham, Mike Pence, Rick Snyder, Jon Huntsman and Mike Huckabee, a total of 16 potential candidates.

The odds of a younger President than Barack Obama are quite low, including Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, and Ted Cruz, a total of 8 potential candidates.

This oddity makes one wonder if the younger generation (under 45) will be as motivated to vote, as they are, naturally, attracted to comparative youth, as John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama represented, when they were elected, and with the extra appeal of being, respectively, the first Catholic (JFK); the first two Southern governors (Carter and Clinton); and the first African American (Obama).

Crowdpac Website Traces All Potential Presidential Candidates On Issues, Determining How Liberal Or Conservative They Really Are!

This blogger just discovered a great website that he wishes to pass on to his readership.

It is www.crowdpac.com, a site which researches and compares potential Presidential candidates of both parties on their issue positions, as well as seeing how they perform in the multitude of polls; check on their political donors; and try to judge if they are of the right qualities to be President of the United States.

The comparison as to how liberal or conservative they are is the most fascinating, and a total of 7 Democrats and 17 Republicans are assessed and evaluated.

So, in a broad sense, the 7 Democrats are seen as most liberal to least liberal in the following order:

Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Andrew Cuomo
Jim Webb
Joe Biden

And the 17 Republicans are seen as most conservative to least conservative in the following order:

Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
Scott Walker
Mike Pence
Dr. Benjamin Carson
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Mike Huckabee
Carly Fiorina
Bobby Jindal
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
John Kasich
Rick Snyder
Jeb Bush
Jon Huntsman
Chris Christie

This ranking can be discussed and analyzed in detail over time, as events transform views of these potential Presidential candidates, but at this point, already, there are surprises!

Joe Biden comes across as the most centrist Democrat, which COULD give him a boost.

Chris Christie is the most centrist Republican, more than Jon Huntsman? That is a surprise! But Jeb Bush and John Kasich also comes across as quite centrist, along with comparatively unknown, and not seen as a serious candidate, Governor Rick Snyder of Michigan. And Carly Fiorina, the failed Senate candidate against Barbara Boxer in California in 2010,and often a commentator now on CNN, suddenly is on the list, and could be the only woman Republican candidate for President, even though her career is totally corporate, never having served in public office!

Crowdpac looks like a site that will often be utilized by this blogger and by other political junkies!

A Presidential Race Without Hillary Clinton Or Jeb Bush Would Be Better For The Nation!

CNN Anchor Candy Crowley has said that she believes Hillary Clinton will not run for President in 2016.

Charlie Cook, Editor of the Charlie Cook Political Report, has said that Hillary hurt her cause on her recent book tour, and is seen as “rusty” by many, and that many think she will not run, although he thinks she will run. Cook also says that it is highly unlikely that Jeb Bush will run, and if he does, the odds of him being the GOP nominee for 2016 are low, predicting that a Tea Party Senator or a Midwest Governor will be the likely nominee.

What Cook says, if it happens, will actually be good for the nation, as we really need new faces, someone who has not run for President, on both sides of the political divide, and that includes Mitt Romney!

So if one goes by what Crowley and Cook are saying, the most likely strong competitors on the Democratic side would be Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland, and two Virginians, Senator Mark Warner, and former Senator Jim Webb (who has recently made clear he intends to run no matter what Hillary Clinton does). Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, should not be left out of the fray, with the last two possibly entering if Hillary does not run. And New York Governor Andrew Cuomo might also choose to run. At this point, the favorite would be Elizabeth Warren. This is all based on the assumption that Vice President Joe Biden, not a new name himself, will not run, or will falter. In other words, a non Hillary race would be a lot more exciting, and a surprise could emerge from the race.

On the Republican side, if Charlie Cook is correct, it means one of the Tea Party Senators–Rand Paul of Kentucky, Marco Rubio of Florida, Ted Cruz of Texas–would emerge as the favorite, alongside a Midwestern Governor—meaning John Kasich of Ohio, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, or Mike Pence of Indiana.

Trying to imagine the final two in the Presidential race from this group is purely a guess–but somehow, the thought of Warren vs Kasich comes to mind, but really is a pure random guess!

Are We Entering An Age Of Older Presidents?

In American history, we have had only five Presidents who were 64 or older in office when inaugurated—Ronald Reagan, William Henry Harrison, James Buchanan, George H. W. Bush, and Zachary Taylor.

An additional five Presidents were ages 60-63 when inaugurated: Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, John Adams, Andrew Jackson, and Dwight D. Eisenhower, but Truman and Ford were not elected at that age, but instead succeeded to the Oval Office.

This means 33 of our 43 Presidents were younger than 60 when being inaugurated President, with 24 in their 50s, and 9 in their 40s, and with Grover Cleveland in his 40s for his first term, and 50s for his second nonconsecutive term. The nine Presidents in their forties were, at the time of inauguration: James K. Polk and James A. Garfield (49); Franklin Pierce (48); Grover Cleveland and Barack Obama (47); Ulysses S. Grant and Bill Clinton (46); John F. Kennedy (43); and Theodore Roosevelt (42).

But it is now likely that the next President will be in his or her 60s, or even 70s, at the time of taking the Presidential oath. There are a total of eight potential Republican nominees in their 60s–ranging from, at the time of inauguration as follows: Mitt Romney (69); Rick Perry (66); Dr. Benjamin Carson (65); John Kasich (64); Jeb Bush (63); Mike Huckabee, Rob Portman, and Lindsey Graham (61). Romney and Perry would reach the age of 70 during a first term, and Romney, Perry, Carson, Kasich and Bush would all be in their 70s in a second term.

Meanwhile, the Democrats have four potential Presidential nominees who will be in their seventies when they would take the oath of office—Jerry Brown (78); Bernie Sanders (75); Joe Biden (74); and Jim Webb (70). All four, plus Hillary Clinton (69) and Elizabeth Warren (67) would reach the 70s during a first term, and Mark Warner (62) would reach 70 as well in a second term.

So a total of eight Republicans and seven Democrats would be over 70, either at the time of the inauguration, or within the next four years after, or the next eight years after!

When one realizes that only Dwight D. Eisenhower (70) and Ronald Reagan (77) were actually in the Presidency past their 70th birthday, and Ike was only three months beyond 70, it is clear that we are likely to create new ground, since much of the talent pool is comparatively old, and from the “Baby Boomer” generation born from 1946 onward.

Of course, there are younger Presidential candidates or potential candidates–for the Republicans–Rick Santorum (58); Mike Pence (57); Rand Paul and Chris Christie (54); and in the 40s in 2016, the following: Scott Walker (49); Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan (46); Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal (45), a total of nine other potential Presidents.

The Democrats have fewer alternatives: in the 50s in 2016 are: Andrew Cuomo (59); Amy Klobuchar (56); Martin O’Malley (54); and Kirsten Gillibrand (50). No one in their forties is seen as a potential Democratic nominee.

So we might end up with the oldest combination of Presidential candidates in American history, with Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney being front runners for now, and both reaching 70 within months of taking the oath of office!

Fantastic Development: Debbie Wasserman Schultz To Be Chair Of Democratic National Committee!

One of the best pieces of news in a long time is that President Obama has chosen Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz of South Florida to be the new Chair of the Democratic National Committee, succeeding former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, who is running for the open Senate seat held by Democratic Senator Jim Webb, who is retiring!

Wasserman Schultz has been an exceptional Congresswoman for her district in Broward and Miami Dade County, and has a safe Congressional seat. She has been in Congress for seven years now, and is a real battler for Democratic Party values!

She is feisty and willing to speak up with her strong beliefs against all Republican challengers! She will not tolerate any bull from Republican leaders in the House, Senate, or in the upcoming Presidential race of 2012!

Originally a strong advocate of the candidacy of Hillary Clinton, she has become a total loyalist to President Obama, and she will fight to her last breath for the party and the President. She has what could be called “cajones”, and can give as good as she takes!

No one is going to run over Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who has overcome a major battle with breast cancer while raising her three children in tandem with her husband!

Debbie Wasserman Schultz is a woman of courage and determination, and her appointment as DNC Chair guarantees a strong, combative Presidential and Congressional race to put the Democratic Party back in power in the House of Representatives, and retain control of the US Senate and the White House!

Congratulations to Debbie and to President Obama for a sensational, awe inspiring appointment that will do the Democratic Party and the nation a lot of good over the long haul!

Do Senate Democrats Really Have 53 Votes? Don’t Be So Sure! :(

It is often pointed out that the Senate has 53 Democrats, and that there is no chance that the Republican House can get the majority of the Senate to go along with massive budget cuts or repeal of the Health Care legislation.

But when one examines closely the situation that truly exists with the upcoming Senate races of 2012, one wonders!

There are at least four Democrats, who are not retiring, as four have already announced (Joe Lieberman, Kent Conrad, Jim Webb, and now Jeff Bingaman), but are likely to be willing to work with Republicans more than one would imagine.

These would be newly elected Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia who must run again in 2012, along with two Senators elected in 2006 and facing tough fights in 2012–Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Jon Tester of Montana–and veteran Ben Nelson of Nebraska, who also faces election in 2012.

If all four worked together with the GOP, there goes the Democratic edge, so the next two years will be interesting as a reality check of what it means to have a Senate majority, and yet maybe NOT have a Senate majority! 🙁