Joe Manchin of West Virginia

Predictions On 119th Congress (2025-2027) Races

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This author and blogger senses that the Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress, since the Republicans have had a disastrous two years under Speaker Kevin McCarthy for nine months and then Speaker Mike Johnson, having the fewest accomplishments in legislation in more than a century.

While it is very difficult to project on 435 House races, it seems likely that some Republican seats in New York and California are likely to go to the Democrats, along with some gain of seats in the South, specifically in Alabama and Louisiana.

Likely, the majority will be, however, only on a few seats, as is now the situation.

The Senate will likely see a slight Republican majority, with the retirement of Joe Manchin, insuring that a Republican will replace him.

However, if all Democrats running for reelection, and those running to replace fellow Democrats, seem likely to win, that sets up a possible 50-50 Senate, which the Vice President would organize.

It depends on whether Republicans Ted Cruz in Texas, Rick Scott in Florida, and Deb Fischer in Nebraska can keep their seats. If any of them lose, we would see a Democratic controlled Senate.

If however, Democrats Jon Tester in Montana or Sherrod Brown in Ohio lose their seats, the Republicans would have the majority of the Senate.

Three Senate Republican Targets Whose Defeats Would Be Blessings!

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The battle for control of the US Senate in 2025 is a very difficult struggle for Democrats, who have a one vote margin in the present Senate, but seem highly likely to lose that slight edge in the upcoming Senate elections.

Besides having to defend incumbents in Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, open seats in Maryland and Arizona will be difficult battles, and with West Virginia assured of a switch to Republicans with Joe Manchin’s retirement.

There are only three Republican targets that are possible switches to the Democrats, but all three will be very difficult to defeat.

In Florida, Rick Scott is opposed by Debbie Mucarsel-Powell; in Missouri, Josh Hawley is opposed by Lucas Kunce; and in Texas, Ted Cruz is opposed by Colin Allred.

All three Republican Senators are horrendous in their comments, votes, and basic personalities, the kind that are regularly demonstrating their lack of concern for their constituents, and motivated solely by ambition and desire to be controversial.

A Major Turnover In 119th Congress To Occur!

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A major turnover is coming in the 119th Congress, which will meet from January 2025-January 2027.

Already, eight Senators and 43 House members are not running for reelection, and turnover by defeat is likely in many other cases.

Among the US Senators who are retiring are the following:

Mitt Romney of Utah
Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona
Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Ben Cardin of Maryland
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
Tom Carper of Delaware

At least 11 Democrats and 14 Republicans are leaving the House of Representatives.

Additionally, a few well known individuals ran for the Senate and have been eliminated, specifically Katie Porter and Barbara Lee in California, while Adam Schiff is on the way to likely Senate membership after ending up first in the California Senate primary.

Dean Phillips of Minnesota chose to challenge Joe Biden in a lost cause, and is leaving the House as a result.

Elissa Slotkin in Michigan; Alex Mooney in West Virginia; Colin Allred in Texas; Andy Kim in New Jersey; and Ruben Gallego in Arizona are among those leaving the House of Representatives to run for the US Senate seats in their states.

A lot more turnover is likely, as many other incumbents face the possibility of defeat this November.

A Great Advantage For Democrats In Senate In The 118th Congress!

Ronald 3 Comments

With the gain of one seat by Democrats in the US Senate, the political equation changes dramatically!

Now there will be one more Democrat on every Senate committee, rather than an even number.

No longer will Vice President Kamala Harris be needed regularly to break Senate ties.

No longer will it be essential that both Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona be in on every vote, and with both of them facing reelection in 2024.

It will be easier to gain judicial confirmations, very important for the future of the courts, and were a Supreme Court Justice leave the Court, it could create a more balanced Court.

If there was a vacancy or party switch, the Democrats would still control the Senate.

Legislation will be easier to pass the Senate, although it likely would fail to gain support of the narrowly majority Republican House of Representatives.

Finally, keeping the control of the Senate will be very difficult in 2024, as only 10 seats are Republican controlled, and will be hard to gain, so the Democrats have to work to find a way to avoid more than a one seat loss.

Some of the Republicans running for reelection in 2024 are particularly despicable, and Democrats need to find viable candidates to fight them, and hopefully, defeat them, including

Ted Cruz of Texas
Rick Scott of Florida
Josh Hawley of Missouri
Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee

It is time to start recruitment of Democrats in Texas, Florida, Missouri, and Tennessee to attempt to gain at least one or two Republican seats in 2024!

At the same time, at least 3 Democratic Senators are likely to have a rough time in 2024, including Manchin and Sinema, along with Jon Tester of Montana, and Sinema is likely to have an intraparty battle with Ruben Gallego, 7th District Congressman.

Joe Manchin Has Destroyed Any Chance Of Joe Biden Adding Accomplishments Before Midterms!

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West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin has, singlehandedly, destroyed any chance of President Biden being able to add accomplishments to his record after 18 months, with the Midterm Elections of 2022 on the horizon.

He has acted in bad faith with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, as well as the Biden Administration, and one wonders why he is assisting Republicans while remaining a Democrat.

This is the ultimate crisis of the Biden Presidency, being held hostage by Manchin and by Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema, both clearly more “Republicrats”, rather than Democrats.

It is now clear that the Senate elections of 2022 will determine if there is any chance of Joe Biden accomplishing more in his term!

Oh, for the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Lyndon B. Johnson!

Electoral Count Act Of 1887 Needs To Be Modernized To Avoid Another January 6!

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The Electoral Count Act of 1887 needs to be updated and modernized, to avoid another January 6 situation.

Fortunately, a bipartisan group of Senators is at work on this project.

Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine, with the backing of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is leading a group of Senators, including Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Chris Coons of Delaware to prevent a repeat of the nightmare created in 2021.

It would clarify the Vice President’s role so that there would never be doubt again about the counting of Electoral Votes.

The law of 1887 came ten years after the contested Presidential Election of 1876, where Republican Rutherford B. Hayes became President by a margin of one vote–185-184–over Democrat Samuel Tilden, who had won the popular vote by about 250,000!

Senators Susan Collins And Joe Manchin Were Bamboozled By Supreme Court Nominees!

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It is now clear that Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine and Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia were bamboozled by Supreme Court nominees Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.

All three claimed that they understood that Roe V. Wade was established law, and that they had no intention of conspiring to reverse abortion rights.

This is a major embarrassment for both Collins and Manchin, and sullies their reputations long term, although it seems clear that they are arrogant personalities, who really do not care about public opinion, which is overwhelmingly pro choice on abortion.

The three Supreme Court Justices, by all ethics and morality, should be forced off the Supreme Court for lying under oath before the US Senate Judiciary Committee, but of course they will face no such action.

And all three were chosen by a President, Donald Trump, who lost the popular vote by 2.85 million, and who was put into office by Russian collusion, confirmed by a Republican Senate majority in 2010 to be reality.

The Supreme Court has lost any respect or reputation, and clearly has become a right wing extremist group wishing to destroy much more than abortion rights!

A move to add members to the Court seems urgent, but can only happen as a long shot at this point, so the nation is a victim of right wing extremism, very disconcerting!

Abortion Rights Fails In US Senate, And So Called”Supporters” Collins And Murkowski Bail!

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Abortion Rights has failed in the US Senate, by a vote of 49-51, not surprising, but two so called “supporters”, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, bailed on the legislation on technical grounds, along with Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia!

Basically, both Senators showed they talk the talk but do not walk the walk.

So it seems certain that women will lose their rights to their own bodies’s autonomy, and there will be botched abortions and suicides rapidly increasing!

This is extremely tragic as women’s rights are going backwards, and yet, at this point, nothing can be done to stop it, unless by miracle, the Supreme Court backs away from its draft decision from February.

This would require Chief Justice John Roberts to influence at least one of the five Justices in the majority, likely either Brett Kavanaugh or Amy Coney Barrett, to join him and the three Democratic appointments on the Court.

But there is no way to know if Roberts might in the end join the five other conservatives, and make the final vote in June 6-3 instead of 5-4!

US Senate Races Crucial For Both Democrats And Republicans In 2022

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As in every even year, the US Senate faces one third of its membership facing election contests this November.

Six Senators are retiring, five Republican (Richard Shelby of Alabama, Roy Blunt of Missouri, Richard Burr of North Carolina, Rob Portman of Ohio, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania), and one Democrat (Patrick Leahy of Vermont).

Besides these six open seats, 28 other Senators are running for reelection, with a total of 20 Republican seats up, and 14 Democrats.

This should give the Democrats the advantage in gaining seats, and if even one seat is added, the Democrats will have control, and if two seats are gained, the unreliability of Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia will not have as much impact and influence in holding up Democratic Party goals for legislation.

On the other hand, if the Republicans gain just one seat, Mitch McConnell becomes Majority Leader, and this will hamper the remainder of the Joe Biden Presidency in this term.

The best hopes for the Democrats are to win Ohio with Congressman Tim Ryan, who was a Presidential contender in 2020; North Carolina; Pennsylvania; Wisconsin; and Florida, where Marco Rubio faces challenge from Congresswoman Val Demings.

THe best hopes for the Republicans are to win Arizona, where Mark Kelly faces a tough fight; Georgia, where Reverend Ralphael Warnock has a serious challenge; Nevada, where Catherine Cortez Masto has a close race; and New Hampshire, where Maggie Hassan has a challenging race.

Joe Manchin May Have Destroyed The “Build Back Better” Legislation Altogether!

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West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin may have destroyed the “Build Back Better” legislation altogether.

Manchin went on Fox News Channel on Sunday to say that he cannot accept the legislation, after months of toying with different versions.

This caused an appropriately harsh reaction from President Biden’s press secretary, Jen Psaki, and many members of the Democratic Party in both houses of Congress.

It is hoped that some aspects of the proposed legisation can be salvaged separately, but sadly, this is the result of having a 50-50 Senate, and if Manchin were to become a Republican, as some suggest, it would simply put the Republicans in total control under Mitch McConnell!