John Hickenlooper

Governors And The Presidential Election Of 2016

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It has often been pointed out that more Governors have been elected President over the course of American history than Senators.

From 1900 on, the following Presidents were earlier Governors of their states—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

The argument is that being a Governor prepares one better for the Presidency than serving in the national government in Washington, DC.

Whether this is true or not, the argument now is that the national government, and particularly the Congress, is so engaged in stalemate and gridlock, that the best choice in the Presidential Election of 2016 would be to go once again for a Governor or former Governor, as occurred four times of the past six Presidents, and seven of the past ten national elections.

So if that is the case, what is the market among Governors?

First, the Democratic side:

Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Mark Warner of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Jerry Brown of California
Howard Dean of Vermont
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Dannel Malloy of Connecticut

Now the Republican side

Chris Christie of New Jersey
Jeb Bush of Florida
Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Mike Pence of Indiana
Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Rick Scott of Florida

So, at least in theory, nine former or sitting Democratic Governors and twelve former or sitting Republican Governors are potential Presidential nominees.

Having said that, it is clear that some of these two groups are highly unlikely to be a candidate, or to have any realistic chance to be the nominee, including for the Democrats: Brown, Dean, Malloy, and Patrick, and for the Republicans: Scott, Martinez, Sandoval, Pence, Haley, and sadly (because he would be the best choice for the GOP long term), Huntsman.

For the Democrats, O’Malley and Cuomo and Warner (who has also served in the Senate), would be the best choices, were it not for the “800 pound gorilla” of Hillary Clinton and the slightly smaller version of Joe Biden. Were it not for them, these three listed Democrats would be a great term to compete for the nomination. Hickenlooper is also a good candidate, but would not be considered as likely to have a good chance, and Schweitzer might very well run, based on recent comments and activities, but the odds for him, especially against Clinton and Biden as things now stand, are extremely high of failure, and even of being mostly ignored by political pundits.

For the Republicans, Christie and Bush would be the most likely to have a real opportunity for the Presidency, but with the Tea Party Movement, neither is very popular, to say the least. Walker might be a better bet on that score, with Jindal seeming less attractive as time goes by, and Perry a real long shot based on his past performances. The “dark horse” to watch would be Kasich, who had a long career on Capitol Hill and knows how Washington works, and despite his mixed record in so many areas, is personally appealing, unlike any of those listed In this paragraph, in many ways the most appealing personally other than Huntsman.

If one had to bet which of each list would have the best chance, all things being equal, one would say O’Malley for the Democrats and Kasich for the Republicans, but the odds are that it will be someone from Capitol Hill–Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden for the Democrats, and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan for the Republicans, with the Democrats having the clear edge in the Electoral College, because of the support of the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast, and the likelihood of strong support in the upper Midwest and Illinois and Iowa, along with Virginia, an unmatchable scenario for the Republicans, as we look at the political situation as 2013 ends, but always subject to changing times that are unpredictable.

The Case For A New Generation Of Democrats For The Presidential Election Of 2016!

Ronald 7 Comments

As the Presidential race begins, and it has started already, like it or not, it is clear that Hillary Clinton, who will be 69 in 2016, and Joe Biden, who will be 74 in 2016, are the frontrunners, and that Hillary is using up most of the oxygen in the room, way ahead of Biden in polls, with other potential Democratic candidates in single digits.

But despite the confidence and optimism about Hillary and even Joe as a backup, there is a growing case for the argument that the Democratic Party should bypass both Hillary and Joe, no matter how much one may love or admire either of them, and go for a new generation of Democrats, as was done in 1960 with John F. Kennedy, in 1976 with Jimmy Carter, in 1992 with Bill Clinton, and 2008 with Barack Obama!

All of these successful Democratic Presidential winners were young–43, 52, 46, and 47 respectively at the time of the inauguration. All were younger than their GOP opponents, although Richard Nixon was only four years older, but represented a continuation of Dwight D. Eisenhower, our oldest President at the time when he retired in 1961!

But Jimmy Carter was eleven years younger than Gerald Ford; Bill Clinton 22 years younger than George H. W. Bush; and Barack Obama 25 years younger than John McCain!

The fact is ONLY three Presidents were inaugurated at age 65 or older—William Henry Harrison at age 68 and dying a month later; James Buchanan at age 65 but only 50 days short of age 66, and rated by many historians the worst President in American history; and Ronald Reagan, inaugurated at just weeks before his 70th and 74th birthday, and judged by many to have deteriorated mentally, with early Alzheimers in his second term of office!

And we have seen Bob Dole defeated at age 73 in 1996; John McCain defeated at age 72 in 2008; and Mitt Romney, defeated at age 65 inn 2012, but also about 50 days short of age 66 if he had been inaugurated, the same exact age as Buchanan was when he won in 1856!

Meanwhile, the Republican Party future is clearly in the hands of young politicians, including Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and others, with these candidates being mostly in their 40s and 50s, and all younger than Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden!

Historically, in most elections, the younger candidate wins, and the party of the President usually does not do well if it utilizes someone connected with the administration leaving office, no matter what level of popularity reigns when that President leaves office, as witness:

Richard Nixon lost after Eisenhower
Hubert Humphrey lost after Lyndon B. Johnson
Gerald Ford lost after Richard Nixon
Walter Mondale lost after Jimmy Carter
Al Gore lost after Bill Clinton

If Hilary Clinton runs, she represents Obama’s foreign policy record, for good or for bad, and also brings back the good and the bad of the Presidency of her husband, Bill Clinton.

If Joe Biden runs, he represents what happens to a Vice President under a President, that the negatives of that President harm the Vice President, as with Nixon, Humphrey, Ford, Mondale, and Gore.

Only George H. W, Bush was able to overcome this hex, and succeed Ronald Reagan in 1988, although then losing reelection in 1992, the greatest percentage loss of any President in American history, except William Howard Taft in 1912!

It is reality that Democrats will be heavily favored in the Electoral College in 2016, no matter who runs, but it would be easier for a “New”, younger Democrat to be the Presidential nominee, such as Martin O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo, KIrsten Gilllibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Deval Patrick, Mark Warner, John Hickenlooper, or Elizabeth Warren, all of whom are much younger than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, with the exception of Warren, who would be 67 in 2016, which makes her a less ideal candidate based upon age!

It is important for Democrats to think carefully before they decide for a continuation of the Obama Presidency through Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, as nominating someone younger and separated from the Obama Administration would be preferable, and easier for the grueling campaign ahead!

The Democratic “Farm Team” Or “Bench” For National Office

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When one looks at the Democratic Party, most of the attention for the 2016 Presidential Election centers around Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, both exceptionally qualified and popular political figures, with tremendous experience in government.

But both Hillary and Joe are getting on in age, with Hillary to be 69 in 2016, and Joe to be 74 in 2016.

Either would face a much younger Republican opponent in 2016, so one has to wonder whether it might be preferable to go for “new blood” for the Democratic nominee.

If that was to occur, there would be a fantastic “farm team” or “bench” for the Democrats, including:

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
Future Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey
Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York
Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Senator Mark Warner of Virginia

This list of nine potential President candidates includes three women; two African Americans; and four white men, with seven states represented, and five US Senators and four Governors.

Any of these nine would be preferable, by far, to any Republican nominee for President, with many of the potential Republicans being horror stories, including Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Governor Rick Perry of Texas, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin.

The Likelihood Of Joe Biden Succeeding Barack Obama: Less Than 50%

Ronald 2 Comments

With the second term of President Barack Obama beginning, already the news media is speculating on the likelihood of Vice President Joe Biden running for President, and the odds that he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016, and become our next President.

Biden is certainly encouraging speculation, while saying he has not made up his mind. It is clear that he would like to run, but even he admits that the success or lack of success of the first two years of the second term of Obama, on top of his first term, will have a dramatic effect on his decision to run, and the odds of his having a good chance to become the 45th President of the United States.

Biden has a long record in public office, actually greater in number of years than any President of the United States having come to the Senate at the minimum age of 30, serving six terms (36 years), and now on his second term as Vice President, which, when he completes it, will mean he has served 44 years in national office.

Biden knows Washington DC like few know it. He also knows how to work with the opposition Republican Party in a manner unseen since Lyndon B. Johnson, although Johnson had a much more unorthodox approach to bargaining, and “wheeler dealing”, than the much more proper and mannerly Joe Biden.

But he also has a long list of gaffes, most not harmful, except to those who oppose him, and his liberal views have alienated major groups, as he has worked on issues highly controversial, including gun rights, women’s rights, gay rights, civil rights, foreign policy, Supreme Court nominees, and protection of the Great Society and New Deal programs, including the so called “entitlements”.

And his age, now 70, meaning he would be 74-78 in a first term, and 78-82 in a second term, is not a plus, as we only had one President beyond the age of 70, Ronald Reagan, who seemed to be in decline in his second term of office, finishing it at age 77 and about 49 weeks,

And there is the challenge of Hillary Clinton, whose public opinion ratings are higher than Biden’s, although there is much doubt that she will, ultimately, run for the Presidency. This author and blogger has already theorized, at the beginning of January, that Hillary will decide not to run. Her performance in testifying today at the Benghazi, Libya hearings of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will be crucial in any plans she might have, after a good rest and recovery period, to run for President in 2016.

And of course, there is the “younger” or “newer” generation of political leaders who have interest in running—including Governors Andrew Cuomo of New York and Martin O’Malley of Maryland, both taking strong leadership on gay marriage and gun regulations in their states; plus others, including Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and even possibly others, including Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado.

So the likelihood of Joe Biden running, while good, is not, automatically going to give him an edge in a field of many likely challengers. And of course, even if many Republicans like Joe Biden personally, it is certain, and obvious, that they are building up a long list of issues to use against the Vice President, should he end up as the Democratic nominee for President in 2016.

Positive Campaigning Can Be Done: Patrick Leahy And John Hickenlooper As Examples!

Ronald Leave a comment

The average American is disgusted by nasty, negative campaigning, where character assassination is employed! 🙁

The effect is to discourage citizens from voting, and to make the American people cynical about politics!

But is it possible to run a political campaign and avoid negativism against your opponent? The answer is YES!

Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont just won his seventh term in the Senate, and completely avoided nasty, negative campaigning!

Democratic Mayor John Hickenlooper of Denver just won the Governorship of Colorado and completely steered away from negative campaigning, a major feat considering that his major opponent was former Republican and Constitution Party nominee Tom Tancredo, one of the most despicable, divisive, nasty campaigners of all time, making his career on the issue of being an anti immigrant nativist of the most venal kind! Hickenlooper’s other opponent was Republican Tea Party nominee Dan Maes, whose campaign collapsed in the face of Tancredo, therefore weakening the GOP image in the Rocky Mountain state, as both of them ran horrible campaigns of character assassination! 🙁

But the tactic did not work, and Colorado is fortunate in having Governor-elect Hickenlooper, a man of principle and decency!

Another example of a politician who avoided negative campaigning in his Senatorial campaigns was the outstanding former New York Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, who served as a Democrat for four terms from 1976-2000, and proved to be a man of both principle and intellect, a combination hard to find in the US Senate today!

This country desperately needs a return to civility in both political campaigns, and in the business of running the government on a daily basis, instead of the politics of personal destruction! 🙁

In Difficult Electoral Climate For Democrats, Some Have No Problem!

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While the Democrats face possible election losses in two weeks, there are eight Democrats who are facing no problem at all when it comes to election or re-election!

In Senate races, the following Democrats have no serious challenges:

Daniel Inouye of Hawaii
Barbara Mikulski of Maryland
Chuck Schumer of New York
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Ron Wyden of Oregon
Patrick Leahy of Vermont

Two gubernatorial races also seem guaranteed for the Democrats:

Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado

These eight Democrats are a very privileged group, but otherwise Democrats are running for election or re-election, knowing clearly that the trend seems to be against them, with losses expected, but the extent of the losses hard to predict as the races reach their final two weeks of what has become a marathon!

The United Nations And The “Bike Riding Conspiracy”: Tea Party-GOP Lunacy In Colorado Governor’s Race! :(

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You would think that the Tea Party Movement has reached the high point of craziness, what with Rand Paul running for the Senate in Kentucky, and Sharron Angle running for the Senate in Nevada! But if you thought that was as loony as things could get, you have not heard of Dan Meas!

Dan Meas is competing for the GOP nomination for Governor in Colorado, and seems to be ahead of his opponent, Scott McInnis, a former Congressman who has been accused of plagiarism!

But Maes is a Tea Party favorite who claims that the Denver mayor, John Hickenlooper, who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor and is heavily favored, has been promoting bringing the city under United Nations control by promoting BIKERIDING! 🙁

This is also the state where Tom Tancredo, former Congressman and GOP Presidential candidate in 2008, and a loony nativist, is running as an Independent for Governor!

Under the circumstances, the Republican Party of Colorado is going off the deep end, with the best choice for them being to select the “plagiarist”, and hope that Tancredo flops on his face politically as an Independent!

So the Tea Party Movement further undermines the Republican Party, and makes them look more and more whacko, loony, and outside of the political mainstream! 🙁