John Kerry

Iowa Caucus History, And Caucuses Elsewhere In 2024

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In the past, there were up to 15 states that held Presidential Caucuses, with them first evolving in the 1970s.

Today, in 2024, there are only a few states that hold caucuses, with the overwhelming majority having Presidential primaries.

The only states in 2024 with caucuses being held by both major political parties are:

Hawaii
Idaho
Iowa
North Dakota
Wyoming

Two other states have Republicans having caucuses, while Democrats have primaries

Those two states with this odd situation are

Missouri
Nevada

Notice none of these total seven states have large populations, with Missouri being the largest.

At the same time, the Iowa Caucuses have NOT been a good example of accuracy as to who would be the nominees or winners of the Presidency.

The only Presidents who won in Iowa and went on to the White House were:

Jimmy Carter 1976
George W. Bush 2000
Barack Obama 2008

Walter Mondale in 1984, Al Gore in 2000, John Kerry in 2004, and Hillary Clinton in 2016 won the Iowa Caucuses but lost the Presidency for Democrats, while for the Republicans, only Bob Dole in 1996 won in Iowa and then lost the Presidency.

What If All Four Florida Potential Republican Presidential Candidates Ran?

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The “Sunshine” State (Florida) could, potentially, have four of its citizens who have served in public office all announcing for the Presidential nomination of the Republican Party for 2024.

Donald Trump has already announced, back in November 2022.

Governor Ron DeSantis is certain to announce after the Florida legislature finishes its session in April.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio already ran for President in 2016, and without a Senate race coming up, could announce another attempt for the Presidency.

Florida Senator Rick Scott, former Governor, faces a Senate reelection contest, but still could decide to put his name into the battle for the White House.

The concept that four political leaders from one state could be competing is a first.

Also, the question is how would these four Florida Republicans stack up if all were on the ballot in the Florida Primary, and what would be their total support for the nomination in competition with other Republican contenders.

Earlier in American history, there were two Floridians in the Democratic Party who mounted unsuccessful campaigns for President–Governor Reubin Askew (1984) and finalist for Vice President for George McGovern (1972); and Governor and Senator Bob Graham (2004), with Graham also on short lists a number of times to be a potential running mate of various Democratic Presidential candidates, including Michael Dukakis (1988), Bill Clinton (1992), Al Gore (2000) and John Kerry (2004).

Happy Birthday, President Elect Biden! A True Hero Of Courage, Principle, Decency, Sincerity As You Face The Greatest Crisis Since Franklin D. Roosevelt

Ronald 1 Comment

Today is the 78th Birthday of President Elect Joe Biden, a true hero of courage, principle, decency and sincerity.

Joe Biden needs all of our prayers as he faces the most difficult transition and multiple crises since Franklin D. Roosevelt 88 years ago.

With President Donald Trump refusing to concede and promote the transition, the nation is in a crisis far worse than after FDR defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932.

Those two Presidents did not get along, but even Hoover conceded while being bitter over his defeat. But Trump is preventing the General Services Administration head Emily Murphy from authorizing the release of funds and access to secret intelligence information that the President Elect needs to move forward as the inauguration takes place exactly two months from today, 61 days of stress and tension that should not be occurring.

Joe Biden is handling this mess very well, and is to be commended, and he is proving every day how stable he is mentally despite all of the critics who claim he shows signs of dementia, pure propaganda!

What is true is that the nastiness of Republicans of the same age bracket demonstrates how they, not Joe Biden, have signs of dementia, and this author and blogger is referring to Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, and Mitch McConnell in the forefront!

Their hatred and bigotry shows through, while Democrats who are in the same age bracket show total signs of capacity and decency just as much as Joe Biden, and this author and blogger is referring to such people as Nancy Pelosi, James Clyburn, Steny Hoyer, Bernie Sanders, and John Kerry!

The Tradition Of Gracious Losers Of Presidential Elections Not Being Accepted By Donald Trump!

Ronald 46 Comments

The tradition in Presidential elections is for the loser to concede with grace and statesmanship.

One can forget about that with President Donald Trump, who is promoting conspiracy theories, and according to some sources, has every intention of refusing to cooperate on the transition, and staying in the White House on Inauguration Day, January 20, 2021, refusing to leave the building or attend the inauguration of his successor.

Other Presidents have refused to attend the inauguration of their successor, including John Adams when Thomas Jefferson was inaugurated in 1801; John Quincy Adams when Andrew Jackson was inaugurated in 1829; and Andrew Johnson when Ulysses S. Grant was inaugurated in 1869.

We have seen in modern times all of the Presidential losers concede graciously—Richard Nixon in 1960, Barry Goldwater in 1964, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George McGovern in 1972, Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H. W. Bush in 1992, Bob Dole in 1996, Al Gore in 2000, John Kerry in 2004, John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Donald Trump is acting like a spoiled child, a privileged character, a prima donna, who clearly would love to be an authoritarian dictator and has been a threat for four years, but the American people have clearly made him aware that his “employment” in the White House for four more years is not desired, and that he has, effectively, been “fired” by a vast margin of about 5-6 million popular votes by the time all of the votes are counted!

Toughest Democratic Race To Take Sides: Ed Markey Vs. Joe Kennedy III In Massachusetts

Ronald 1 Comment

The toughest Democratic race for Congress is coming to a conclusion on Tuesday, September 1, when Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts faces Congressman Joe Kennedy III for the nomination for the US Senate.

Both are clearly progressives, but Markey is seen as more Left than Kennedy.

Markey has been endorsed by Congresswoman Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, former Vice President Al Gore, former Democratic Presidential nominee (1988) Michael Dukakis, documentary creator Ken Burns, Gloria Steinem, Jane Fonda, Carole King, Tom Steyer, many environmental groups, and the Boston Globe Editorial Board, as well as most Massachusetts mayors and many Democrats in the state legislature. and half the Congressional delegation.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has endorsed Kennedy, and the Kennedy Family is, of course, behind Kennedy, and also many Congressmen, including the late John Lewis and Joaquin Castro, but he has alienated many who think he should have waited until Markey retired, or Warren ended up in a potential Joe Biden cabinet.

The seat is guaranteed to whoever wins the primary on Tuesday, as Republicans have not won state wide except with the first African American Senator since Reconstruction (Edward Brooke) decades ago, and Scott Brown, who succeeded Ted Kennedy and then was defeated by Elizabeth Warren.

Markey has served since 1976, 44 years in Congress, starting when he was 30 years old, with 37 in the US House of Representatives, and then he took over John Kerry’s Senate seat when Kerry became Secretary of State under Barack Obama in 2013. In so doing, Markey set a record as the longest serving Congressman, who then ended up in the US Senate at age 67.

Markey is just about the most liberal Democratic Senator, while Kennedy in eight years in the House, and now nearing 40, is also liberal, but it could be argued not as much, whatever that means!

So two men, who started off at 30 and 32 in Congress, now face each other, as the old guy with the long record, and the young guy, who is a Kennedy, but seems likely to lose the primary, based on recent polls, which show Markey 12 points ahead of Kennedy!

This might mean the end of all Kennedys in Massachusetts always winning, and it could be that Joe Kennedy III might not get another chance to go to the Senate, and might not be able to run again for the House of Representatives.

This is quite a gamble by a Kennedy, and it seems likely to be a lost cause!

The inclination of this blogger and author is that if I lived in Massachusetts, I would vote for Markey, but not be happy about rejecting a talented Joe Kennedy III!

This race should not have happened, as Joe III should have waited for either Markey or Warren to leave the Senate, without this pitched battle now coming to its end on Tuesday!

All Star Lineup For Four Nights Of Democratic National Convention

Ronald 10 Comments

The Democratic National Convention is being held remotely this week from Monday to Thursday, and there will be an all star cast of speakers each evening.

Monday night, the speakers will include, among others–Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Cuomo, Gretchen Whitmer, Doug Jones, James Clyburn, Bernie Sanders, and Michelle Obama, along with Republican John Kasich.

Tuesday night, the speakers will include, among others—Chuck Schumer, John Kerry, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bill Clinton, and Dr. Jill Biden.

Wednesday night, the speakers will include, among others—Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, and Barack Obama.

Thursday night, the speakers will include, among others—Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, Keisha Lance Bottoms, Tammy Baldwin, Tammy Duckworth, Chris Coons, Andrew Yang, and Presidential nominee Joe Biden.

It will be an opportunity for the Democrats to display all of their “stars”, who have, together, contributed to the present day version of a party that has done so much for America over the decades since Franklin D. Roosevelt onward, responsible for most of the domestic reforms and foreign policy stability that marks the periods of Democratic Party control of Congress and the White House!

Joe Biden Further Ahead In Polls For Early June Than Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, And John Kerry Were In Last Four Election Cycles

Ronald 4 Comments

We have all learned from history that public opinion polls are not always accurate, but it is impressive, at least for now, that Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all public opinion polls in early June, further ahead of Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton in 2016, Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, and John Kerry in 2004 against their opponents.

It is clearly not a reason for those who support Joe Biden to become cocky, and even lazy about campaigning for him, and for encouraging others to vote in November.

But considering the first five months of 2020, with the impeachment trial; the CoronaVirust Pandemic; the collapse of the economy to depression levels; and the Trump decision to fire tear gas, pepper spray, and have two helicopters threaten peaceful demonstrators in Washington, DC, who were protesting the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, one has to believe that the polls likely are accurate against Donald Trump.

14 Weeks Until First Vote In Iowa Caucuses

Ronald 4 Comments

As the House of Representatives is working on its impeachment inquiry involving President Donald Trump, the political calendar is starting to close in on many Democratic Presidential contenders.

It is now only 14 weeks until the first Americans vote on 2020, with the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday, February 3.

Iowa is not truly decisive on who wins the nomination and the Presidency in either major political party, as the only times that Iowa was a sign of the future was when an incumbent President was not on the ballot, and even then, not very often.

Democratic Party

Walter Mondale in 1984

Al Gore in 2000

John Kerry in 2004

Barack Obama in 2008

Hillary Clinton in 2016

George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 1992 failed to win Iowa.

Republican Party

Gerald Ford in 1976

Bob Dole in 1996

George W. Bush in 2000

Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Donald Trump in 2016 failed to win Iowa.

So only George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008 won Iowa and went on to win the Presidency in the fall of those years.

So do not expect that who wins Iowa will automatically be the nominee for the Democrats in November 2020.

Since 1972, Iowa has been accurate on the Democratic nominee 43 percent of the time, and 50 percent accurate on the Republican nominee.

Iowa is not representative of the nation in its population mix, but it gives a leg up to a few of the candidates, while dashing the hopes of so many others.

Alternative Candidates Who Might Enter The Democratic Presidential Race

Ronald 8 Comments

Hard to believe, but rumors are spreading that there could be alternative candidates who might enter the Democratic Presidential race.

These would include:

2016 Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton

Former First Lady Michelle Obama

Former 2004 Presidential nominee John Kerry

Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg

Former Attorney General Eric Holder

Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown

Most of these ideas are totally preposterous.

It is time for Hillary Clinton to pass the torch finally, and make an unequivocal statement she will not run, as she would divide the party and the nation in such a way that would be totally destructive.

Michelle Obama is not going to run, too smart to consider it.

John Kerry is another too old nominee, who is from the distant past, 2004 as a Presidential candidate, and would be 77 when taking the oath, and the last thing we need is another old candidate.

The same goes for Michael Bloomberg, who would five months younger than Bernie Sanders and nine months older than Joe Biden, and would be one month short of 79 in January 2021, too old, and really too divisive with his record as NYC Mayor, and not loyal to the Democratic Party.

Eric Holder and Deval Patrick would only create more racial division, with Cory Booker and Kamala Harris and Julian Castro already in the race, and Holder highly controversial and being 70 the day after the inauguration, and Deval Patrick just another Massachusetts politician, but with no real constituency to run.

If any candidate deciding to run makes sense, it just might be Sherrod Brown, who considered running, and would be a strong competitor from Ohio, but if he is to run, time is of the essence. He would be 68 at the time of the inauguration, and might be a good Vice Presidential choice instead of for the Presidency.

But except for Brown, really, the next Democratic Presidential nominee needs to come from the present, rapidly dwindling list, and dreaming of alternatives needs to end!

Reality: Candidates Ahead In Public Opinion Polls In Third Year Of Presidential Term Never Are The Nominees For President

Ronald 2 Comments

Public opinion polls have been notoriously inaccurate in the third year of a Presidential term in who would be the Presidential nominees of major parties the following year.

In 2003, Vermont Governor Howard Dean was the front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but John Kerry ended up as the nominee in 2004.

In 2007, New York Senator Hillary Clinton was the front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but Barack Obama ended up as the nominee in 2008.

In 2007, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but John McCain ended up as the nominee in 2008.

In 2011, Herman Cain was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but Mitt Romney ended up as the nominee in 2012.

In 2015, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but Donald Trump ended up as the nominee in 2016.

Beyond these examples, in the third year of many Presidential terms, who could have known that the next President would be someone not seriously considered at that time to have a chance to be elected.

Witness John F. Kennedy in 1959; Richard Nixon in 1967; Jimmy Carter in 1975; Ronald Reagan in 1979; Bill Clinton in 1991; Barack Obama in 2007; and Donald Trump in 2015.

Also add the following: Abraham Lincoln in 1859; Woodrow Wilson in 1911; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1931; and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1951.

So, to assume that Joe Biden, currently ahead in all polls for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020, will be the nominee is quite a gamble, based upon history.