Jon Tester Of Montana

Predictions On 119th Congress (2025-2027) Races

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This author and blogger senses that the Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress, since the Republicans have had a disastrous two years under Speaker Kevin McCarthy for nine months and then Speaker Mike Johnson, having the fewest accomplishments in legislation in more than a century.

While it is very difficult to project on 435 House races, it seems likely that some Republican seats in New York and California are likely to go to the Democrats, along with some gain of seats in the South, specifically in Alabama and Louisiana.

Likely, the majority will be, however, only on a few seats, as is now the situation.

The Senate will likely see a slight Republican majority, with the retirement of Joe Manchin, insuring that a Republican will replace him.

However, if all Democrats running for reelection, and those running to replace fellow Democrats, seem likely to win, that sets up a possible 50-50 Senate, which the Vice President would organize.

It depends on whether Republicans Ted Cruz in Texas, Rick Scott in Florida, and Deb Fischer in Nebraska can keep their seats. If any of them lose, we would see a Democratic controlled Senate.

If however, Democrats Jon Tester in Montana or Sherrod Brown in Ohio lose their seats, the Republicans would have the majority of the Senate.

Essential For Democratic Senate Majority To Defeat Josh Hawley, Or Rick Scott, Or Ted Cruz In November!

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In order for Democrats to retain control of the US Senate, it is urgent that at least one of the following three Republican Senators, all highly disliked for their extreme right wing views, lose reelection in November.

Josh Hawley in Missouri
Rick Scott in Florida
Ted Cruz in Texas

The listing of the above is in the order of the possibility of defeating any of the three, with it being tough to win even one of these seats.

It requires, also, that every Democratic seat be retained, including the most endangered–Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Jon Tester in Montana.

West Virginia, sadly, will go Republican with Jim Justice replacing the retiring Joe Manchin, but if the Democrats win the Presidency, Tim Walz will be Vice President, and there would be at least a 50-50 tie in the Senate as occurred in the first two years of the Joe Biden Presidency.

Crucial Senate Battles In November

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Thirty three Senate seats will be up in November, with Democrats having to defend 23 seats and Republicans only 10 seats, so a major struggle for Democrats to keep control of the Senate, which right now is divided 51-49 with three Independents helping the Democrats keep the majority.

The major battles to take Republican seats will be in Texas (Ted Cruz); Florida (Rick Scott); and Missouri (Josh Hawley).

The most dangerous Democratic seats are Arizona, Maryland, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

It would seem certain that West Virginia, with the retirement of Joe Manchin, will go to the Republicans, and Maryland, normally a strong blue state, has the problem of popular former Governor Larry Hogan running for the Senate, which makes it seem likely that the state will flip to the Republicans.

Ohio with Sherrod Brown, and Montanea, with Jon Tester, are also in danger, while Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin more likely to remain Democratic.

So assuming West Virginia and Maryland go Republican, that would mean a 51-49 Republican controlled Senate, unless the Democrats can win at least one seat from the three Republicans who are contestable–Texas, Florida, and Missouri.

And this is assuming Joe Biden wins a second term, and Kamala Harris is there to break a possible 50-50 tie in the Senate.

A Great Advantage For Democrats In Senate In The 118th Congress!

Ronald 3 Comments

With the gain of one seat by Democrats in the US Senate, the political equation changes dramatically!

Now there will be one more Democrat on every Senate committee, rather than an even number.

No longer will Vice President Kamala Harris be needed regularly to break Senate ties.

No longer will it be essential that both Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona be in on every vote, and with both of them facing reelection in 2024.

It will be easier to gain judicial confirmations, very important for the future of the courts, and were a Supreme Court Justice leave the Court, it could create a more balanced Court.

If there was a vacancy or party switch, the Democrats would still control the Senate.

Legislation will be easier to pass the Senate, although it likely would fail to gain support of the narrowly majority Republican House of Representatives.

Finally, keeping the control of the Senate will be very difficult in 2024, as only 10 seats are Republican controlled, and will be hard to gain, so the Democrats have to work to find a way to avoid more than a one seat loss.

Some of the Republicans running for reelection in 2024 are particularly despicable, and Democrats need to find viable candidates to fight them, and hopefully, defeat them, including

Ted Cruz of Texas
Rick Scott of Florida
Josh Hawley of Missouri
Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee

It is time to start recruitment of Democrats in Texas, Florida, Missouri, and Tennessee to attempt to gain at least one or two Republican seats in 2024!

At the same time, at least 3 Democratic Senators are likely to have a rough time in 2024, including Manchin and Sinema, along with Jon Tester of Montana, and Sinema is likely to have an intraparty battle with Ruben Gallego, 7th District Congressman.