Kay Hagan

Two Democratic Senate Women Nominees On Way To Victory, Insuring A Democratic Senate Majority In 2015-2016!

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As stated yesterday, the odds of two Democratic women Senators keeping their seats is highly likely–Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire and Kay Hagan in North Carolina.

Since the Democrats are bound to lose some seats in the US Senate, this is a good omen, but it is added to by the strong likelihood of two women running for the Senate in “Red” states, Kentucky and Georgia, who are seen as new women members of the upper chamber.

These are Alison Lundergan Grimes of Kentucky and Michelle Nunn of Georgia, who will counteract the likely loss of Democratic seats in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.

Grimes has had to fight a rough battle against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but the top two Kentucky newspapers have endorsed her, and the negativism and nastiness and obstructionism of McConnell makes him the number one target to defeat for Democrats nationwide. McConnell has done nothing for the large poor population, both white and black, in his state, and has been the cheer leader of every attempt to prevent Barack Obama from having any success in his time in the Presidency. In that, McConnell has failed, and it will be a glorious moment when he is forced to concede to Grimes, who has proved she is a tough lady, and that she will be a positive force in the Senate over the next six years.

Michelle Nunn, daughter of respected former Senator Sam Nunn, has run an excellent race against business David Perdue, who brags about his success at outsourcing jobs. Nunn is ahead in most polls, and is very competent and qualified, and like Grimes, is seen as likely to win, and this blogger predicts their success, along with Shaheen in New Hampshire and Hagan in North Carolina.

Tomorrow, we will look at three highly endangered seats–in Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

Senate Races Tight, But Two Democratic Women Senators Could Be Key To Keeping Democratic Party Majority In Upper Chamber!

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It is clear that the battle for the US Senate is a real combat zone, but two Democratic women Senators, one in New England, and one in the upper South, could be the key to keeping the Democratic Party majority in the upper chamber!

In New Hampshire, we have Senator Jeanne Shaheen, who has been the first woman to serve as Governor for two terms, followed by one term in the US Senate. She has a solid record, and New Hampshire, as the only state to have both Senators being female, along with the Governor, and both Congressional seats, and all Democrats, except for Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte, bodes well for Shaheen.

Her opponent is former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who took over Ted Kennedy’s seat, and then lost it to Elizabeth Warren in 2012. Brown had defeated Attorney General Martha Coakley, and he now has the distinction of being the only person to run for the Senate three times, and have women as his opponents each time!

Brown is seen as making the election close, but it seems highly unlikely that as a Massachusetts resident who only has a vacation home in New Hampshire, and is therefore seen as a “carpetbagger”, will be able to convince voters to kick out a popular leader who has been in the top government offices of Governor and Senator for a total now of 14 years. And it has been made clear that despite his assertion that he is a “bipartisan” Senator, ultimately he will support the Republican agenda, and undermine the last two years of Barack Obama’s Presidency. Also, it is rumored that he wants to use the Senate seat to run for President in 2016, while Shaheen has shown her total loyalty to her state!

The other seat which seems likely to remain Democratic is North Carolina, where Senator Kay Hagan faces a tough contest against North Carolina Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis, who is extremely right wing in his record, and has set North Carolina backward in health care and education with the assistance of Governor Pat McCrory, who turned much more right wing than he indicated when he ran for and won the Governorship two years ago!

Kay Hagan is ahead in most polls, and it seems a good bet that she, and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, will keep these Senate seats “blue”, and help to keep the Democrats in control of the US Senate in 2015-2016!

Republicans Flub Debates, Both Governor And Senate Candidates

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The Republican Party is self destructing in campaign debates in many states!

Florida Governor Rick Scott boycotted the first five minutes of his debate with former Governor Charlie Crist, and came across as dishonest, cold, stiff, and uncaring about those less fortunate.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker did very poorly in his debate against Democratic opponent Mary Burke.

Republican Senate candidate Thom Tillis of North Carolina was very unimpressive in his debate against Democratic Senator Kay Hagan.

Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell came across as someone who needs to retire, in his debate against Kentucky Democratic Senate opponent Allison Lundergan Grimes.

Texas Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott came across as a hypocrite in his debate against Democratic gubernatorial opponent Wendy Davis.

It is clear that most Republicans are on the defensive on their records, and that the Democrats are coming across as deserving election, or keeping their positions!

Washington Post 95% In Belief Republicans Will Win Senate In November: Totally A Delusion!

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It is amazing that the Washington Post is predicting by a percentage of 95 percent that the Republicans will win the six seats needed to control the US Senate in 2015-2016.

Even if they do, which is highly unlikely, with two thirds of the seats in 2016 having incumbent Republicans, it is certain that the Democrats, if they lose control will regain it with a major margin in 2016!

But to believe that the Republicans will gain six seats is belied by the likely defeat of Pat Roberts in Kansas and Mike Rounds in South Dakota, both which no one had thought possible to go to the Democrats.

And those who think Mary Landrieu is not going to win her seat in Louisiana forget her ability to survive, as the only sane major figure in a state which includes Bobby Jindal and David Vitter, both disgraces in every possible manner!

And Mitch McConnell in Kentucky is not going to win his seat this time around against Allison Lundergan Grimes, and Georgia will go Democratic as well with Michelle Nunn, which means even if the Republicans win six seats, they will lose three in those those two states and Kansas, and will not win one of the so called three “guaranteed” states of South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia!

North Carolina with Kay Hagan seems safe, while admittedly, Arkansas, with Mark Pryor, is in more danger.

Expect overall a three seat Senate gain for the Republicans, with the Senate going from 55-45 to 52-48, including a likely four independents, from Maine, Vermont, South Dakota (or Democrat Rick Weiland winning instead of Independent Larry Pressler), and Kansas!

The Democrats’ Secret Weapon: Young And Single Women, And Excellent Women Candidates!

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The Democratic Party has a secret weapon: Young and Single Women, and Excellent Senate candidates and Gubernatorial candidates!

Polls show that young and single women in many states are clearly angered by Republicans working to take away their rights, and will come out in large numbers to back Democrats in the midterm elections.

The margin of support for Democrats in many state polls is as high as thirty percent in some, and polls clearly indicate widespread support among young and single women in such states as North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and Kentucky, among others!

Why not? Republicans want to take away the right of abortion; the right to use contraceptives; the right of a woman to equal pay; the right of women to have more unemployment compensation; the right of women to have an increase in the minimum wage; the right of women to know that politicians do not blame them for campus rapes and military rapes; the right of women to have more available and quality child care; the right of women to expect decent health care from government, or their corporations, such as Walmart; the right of women not be insulted about their weight and figure; and the right of women to reject women Republican candidates who do not care about anyone but their own futures, and sell out to male chauvinists in the Republican Party.

So therefore, Michele Nunn of Georgia; Allison Lundergan Grimes of Kentucky; Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Shanna Bellows of Maine; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; and Natalie Tennant of West Virginia (all Senators or running for the Senate); and Wendy Davis of Texas and Mary Burke of Wisconsin (running for Governor) stand out, as does Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire; and many are likely to win their races, and make 2014, the Year of the Democratic Woman, a lot due to young and single women voting in droves!

Meanwhile, Republican women running are sounding like they are from outer space, including Senate candidates Joni Ernst of Iowa; Terri Lynn Land of Michigan; Monica Wehby of Oregon; and Shelly Moore Capito of West Virginia; and women Governors Mary Fallin of Oklahoma; Susana Martinez of New Mexico; and Nikki Haley of South Carolina.

The Democratic Women In Senate Races

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The role of women in the Democratic Party Senate races is becoming much more significant, and at this time, there is a good chance that many will be successful, including the incumbent women and the challenger women.

In the first category, we have Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina, and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire.

In the second category, we have Senate candidates Natalie Tennant in West Virginia, Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, Michelle Nunn of Georgia, and Amanda Curtis of Montana.

At this point, two months before the election, the odds are good for Landrieu, Hagan, Shaheen, Grimes and Nunn, with Tennant and Curtis more likely to fail to be elected to replace retiring Jay Rockefeller and Max Baucus.

With 16 women Democratic Senators, it is likely that we will see  a few more in 2015!

Republican Weakness In Defeating Democratic Incumbents In Senate Races A Long Term Trend!

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In all of the discussion of US Senate races in the upcoming Midterm Elections of 2014, many fail to realize the historical record of the failure of Republicans to have much success in defeating Democratic incumbents over a long period of time, while Democrats have been much more successful in that regard.

From 1946 to 2012, only TWICE have Republicans been able to defeat a large number of Democratic incumbents–1946 (10) and 1980 (12).

Since 1982, the number of Democratic incumbents defeated in each two year cycle has never been more than two, and six times there have been NO Democratic incumbents defeated.

Meanwhile, Democrats have defeated Republican incumbents in large numbers many times—8 in 1948; 10 in 1958; 7 in 1986; 5 in 2000; and 6 in 2006.

So to assume that a large number of Democratic incumbents, including Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Mark Begich of Alaska; Mark Pryor of Arkansas; Mark Udall of Colorado; Al Franken of Minnesota; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; Tom Udall of New Mexico; and Mark Warner of Virginia will be defeated, defies history!

Since World War II, the reelection rate for US Senators is 80 percent.

And since 1980, Democrats have defeated 38 Republican incumbents, to just 12 for Republicans defeating Democratic incumbents!

The Rise Of The Women Candidates In The Democratic Party!

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Women already have 16 of their gender as Democrats in the US Senate, as compared to four Republicans.

Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire all face challenges, but are likely to win their reelection bids.

At the same time, Michelle Nunn in Georgia, Allison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, Natalie Tennant in West Virginia, and Shenna Bellows in Maine all have reasonable chance to win their races, with Tennant facing another woman, Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia; and Shenna Bellows facing another woman, Senator Susan Collins in Maine.

Meanwhile, in gubernatorial races, Wendy Davis in Texas; Allyson Schwartz in Pennsylvania; and Mary Burke in Wisconsin have competitive races for the Democrats!

The likelihood is that there will be at least 22 women in the Senate, with 18 being Democrats, in the 2015 Senate, and that at least one of the three Democratic women running for Governor will win, and possibly two of them!

Do Not Believe Polls Which Predict GOP Senate Majority!

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So many polls are now predicting that the Republican Party will win control of the US Senate. But polls have been proved wrong before, and the Democrats should not run scared, just run aggressively against the Do Nothing Republicans, similar to what Harry Truman did in 1948!

The Republican Party is wrong on immigration reform; is wrong on the right of workers; is wrong on the treatment of women at work and in their private lives; is wrong on the environment and climate change; is wrong on the need for gun regulation; is wrong on the use of the race card; is wrong on its refusal to promote infrastructure spending; is wrong on its decision to oppose more expenditures on veterans; is wrong in its opposition to ObamaCare; is wrong in its attacks on Social Security and Medicare; is wrong in its efforts to deny voting rights; is wrong in its advocacy of wars everywhere, rather than pursuing diplomacy and peace; is wrong in their anti intellectual, anti science agenda; is wrong in its promotion of theocracy, rather than separation of church and state; and is wrong in its planned strategy to obstruct all judicial and executive nominations and therefore to cripple operation of the courts and government agencies.

The Democrats are likely to keep the following Senators–Mark Pryor of Arkansas; Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; Mark Warner of Virginia; and Mark Begich of Alaska.

They have a good chance of defeating Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, with their nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes; win the open Senate seat in Georgia with Michelle Nunn; win the open Senate seat in Iowa with Bruce Braley; win the open Senate seat in Michigan with Gary Peters; and an even chance to win the open West Virginia seat with Natalie Tennant over Republican Shelley Moore Capito.

The only seats seen likely to switch from D to R are: South Dakota and Montana; while the Democrats have a good shot at winning Kentucky and Georgia. With West Virginia possibly going Republican with Capito, and Maine having a chance that Republican Susan Collins loses to Democrat Shanna Bellows, if such happens, it is no gain by the Republicans.

The best prediction is that the Republicans MIGHT gain two seats, falling four states short of the six needed to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader, with him likely to lose to Grimes in Kentucky, in any case.

The worst case scenario for the Democrats is the loss of South Dakota and Montana; and the loss of West Virginia, therefore meaning a Republican gain of three seats!

And in 2016, with two thirds of the seats being Republicans, the Democrats are sure, in an election where their Democratic Presidential nominee will be heavily favored, to win a large number of additional seats, nearing up to 60 from a possible low of 52 in 2014!

Twenty Women In The United States Senate In The 113th Congress: All Time High!

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The 113th Congress will have TWENTY women, the highest number in American history!

The 112th Congress had seventeen women, 12 Democrats and 5 Republicans.

The 113th Congress will have 16 Democrats and 4 Republicans, with Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, both Republicans, retiring!

Five new women will join the Senate—Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts,.Tammy Baldwin of WIsconsin, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, and Deb Fischer of Nebraska, with Fischer being the lone Republican. Fifteen women Senators will remain, including three Republicans—Susan Collins of Maine, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. The twelve returning Democratic women include: Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Barbara Mikulski of Maryland, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Diane Feinstein of California, Barbara Boxer of California, Parry Murray of Washington, and Maria Cantwell of Washington.

Also, three states have both Senators being women—New Hampshire, California, and Washington!

And to top it off, New Hampshire not only has two women Senators, but also both House members are women, and the new Governor is a woman, the first state to have an all female representation in Congress and the Governorship!

How far America has come as we enter the year 2013!