Kentucky

Final Projection On Congressional Elections Of 2020

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With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.

The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.

Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.

The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.

The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:

Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally

Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner

Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins

Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue

Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines

North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis

Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst

Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall

South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham

Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.

Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!

Time For Mitch McConnell And Lindsey Graham To Be Retired By Voters!

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Two leading Republicans stand out above all who need to be retired by the voters in their states.

One is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who is being opposed by Amy McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot, and first woman to fly a combat mission for the Marine Corps. In 20 years in the Marine Corps, McGrath flew 89 combat missions against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. She graduated from the US Naval Academy, and has taught as an instructor there. She reached the level of Lieutenant Colonel in the military, and won many combat medals in the Iraq War and Afghanistan War. She is defined as a moderate centrist Democrat.

The other Senator who needs to be retired is Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who is opposed by African American politician Jaime Harrison, who was the Chair of the state Democratic Party from 2013-2017, and is an Associate Chair of the Democratic National Committee. He graduated from Yale University and received his law degree from Georgetown University. He worked as a lobbyist and also for House Majority Whip James Clyburn.

Public opinion polls indicate a very close race in South Carolina, but in Kentucky, McConnell seems far ahead.

However, with the tumult over the Supreme Court vacancy, one can hope that at least one, if not both, of these despicable Republican leaders, could be ousted from their Senate seats, as this has happened before to others.

It seems clear that Democrats, independents, and those Republicans and conservatives who have condemned office holding Republicans for bowing to Donald Trump, just might be enough to affect change!

Time For Mitch McConnell To Be Retired: A Detrimental Effect On The US Senate And The Nation

Ronald 4 Comments

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has been a disgraceful, reprehensible leader in the US Senate, and is coming up for reelection to what would be a seventh six year term in office, if he wins in November.

He will be 79 in February, meaning he would be in the Senate until age 85, a good argument for retiring him, but far from the best.

He is the longest serving Senate Republican leader in American history, and longest serving US Senator in Kentucky history. He has been Senate Republican leader for 14 years, the first eight as Minority Leader, and the last six as Majority Leader.

Starting off in the Senate as a pragmatist and comparative moderate, he has become a Far Right leader, undermining President Barack Obama at every imaginable turn, including denying him the Supreme Court appointment of Merrick Garland in 2016, on no legal or constitutional grounds.

He led the fight to undermine campaign finance reform, and his wife, Elaine Chao, has been involved in a conflict of interest in being Secretary of Transportation under President Donald Trump, linking McConnell to Trump’s policies and approach to power, with only an occasional effort to separate himself from Trump.

McConnell worked to undermine health care reform and banking reform under President Obama, and his goal, which failed, was to make Obama a one term President. McConnell has a tone of scandal and corruption constantly surrounding him, and has become very wealthy while in office through his connections with powerful financial interests.

Obstruction and constant use of the filibuster, as well as willingness to shut the government down numerous times and promote the US defaulting on its debt has been utilized regularly, creating a total confrontational attitude.

His major goal has been to fill the federal court system with extremist right wing conservatives, many who do not have adequate qualifications to have lifetime positions, and setting up future constitutional crises in the coming decades. He also has refused to promote election security for the upcoming Presidential election of 2020.

McConnell is an evil force, a nasty, hard line ideologue, and now faces a real challenge from the Democratic Senate nominee, as he has an extremely low public opinion rating in his home state of Kentucky. Amy McGrath has had a career as a Marine Fighter Pilot, and polls indicate a very close race, so let us hope McConnell is retired.

At the least, it seems likely if McConnell is reelected to a seventh term, that he might end up as Minority Leader, as expectations presently indicate the likelihood of a Democratic Senate after six years of Republican control.

Kentucky Has The Two Worst Senators Of Any State!

Ronald 7 Comments

These days, there are so many Republican Senators who are totally disgraceful, despicable, horrendous, lacking in empathy, humanity, and common decency!

But although many are in this category, it is clear that the worst combination of any state goes to Kentucky, a very poor state, with many poor people, and more who are white than minority, and two Senators who do not give a damn about their own constituents!

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senator Rand Paul share the prize for the most monstrous combination, and it is hoped that McConnell might be defeated in November, at age 77 and 36 years in the Senate!

And if that happens, it would be time to prosecute McConnell for his corrupt actions, and that of his wife, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, as there has been a conflict of interest that McConnell’s wife has been allowed to serve in the Trump Cabinet!

It is outrageous that McConnell is unwilling to offer support for state aid to such states as New York, California, and Illinois, when those states supply a lot of financial aid to Kentucky annually!

And Rand Paul has been a total nightmare, as his libertarianism bent harms his population! Paul even questions the science and medical knowledge of Dr. Anthony Fauci!

It is impossible to explain why Kentuckians do not get the message and vote them out of office, as they clearly do not give a damn about the people of their state!

Trumpites Put Profit Above Life With Actions In Michigan And Kentucky, And At Houses Of Worship

Ronald 23 Comments

It is now clear that Trumpites put profit above life, as shown by their marches and demonstrations in Michigan, Kentucky, and threatened actions in North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, protesting the shutdowns ordered by those states’ Democratic governors and Ohio’s Republican Governor.

A number of Christian houses of worship, run by pastors who are always looking for adulation and money, also have endangered their clueless, gullible congregants by holding Easter Sunday services, and denouncing what they call interference with freedom of religion. That was not the purpose of the states’ governors who worry about the spread of the CoronaVirus.

It is essential for the Democratic governors, along with the intelligent, sensible Republican governors of states, including Massachusetts, Maryland, and Ohio, to hold fast and not give in to pressure to reopen society at a delicate time as now!

Rand Paul And Libertarian Ideas Dead In the Water As It Should Be!

Ronald 17 Comments

Kentucky Republican Senator Rand Paul and his libertarian ideas, learned from his father, former Texas Congressman Ron Paul, are in free fall, dead in the water, as they should be!

Libertarianism is anti government, when government is necessary and essential, and all it does is promote selfishness, greed, and lack of compassion and empathy for those less fortunate!

This includes children, the elderly, the poor, the sick, the disabled, and people of all races, ethnicities, and religions.

For Rand Paul to attempt to block essential legislation to provide relief for tens of millions of Americans from the economic damage of the CoronaVirus Crisis, is obscene, despicable, reprehensible, and unconscionable!

A place in hell is reserved for this excuse of a human being, who deserves no sympathy or endorsement by any decent person!

Nancy Pelosi Right To Demand Fair Impeachment Trial, But Mitch McConnell Has Control, So Trial May Be Delayed

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Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is delaying the sending of the two impeachment articles against Donald Trump to the Senate, due to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s plans to stage a phony trial, without any witnesses or evidence.

So it is a game of the powerful woman leader of the lower house of Congress against the powerful male leader of the US Senate.

The result may be an extended delay in the commencement of the trial, but as Pelosi has said, Donald Trump has still been impeached, only the third such case in American history, and nothing will delete that as part of his legacy, and eventually in his obituary.

Trump has been denounced and condemned as a law breaker, and this insures that he will go down as a Presidential failure and disaster, at the bottom of the list of Presidents for all time, unlikely to rise above any other President on the list.

Nancy Pelosi, the most powerful woman in American history, will go down as one of the greatest Speakers in the history of the House of Representatives, alongside Sam Rayburn, Thomas “Tip” O’Neill, and Henry Clay.

And Mitch McConnell will go down as one of the worst Senate Majority Leaders, who refused to move the nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court in 2016, refusing even a hearing; who has been a total lackey to Donald Trump, and with his wife Elaine Chao being Secretary of Transportation under Trump; and who has sat on nearly 400 pieces of legislation passed by the House of Representatives in 2019, as the Senate becomes totally ineffective as a legislative body.

Hopefully, the state of Kentucky, where his public opinion ratings are the lowest of any Senator, will defeat him and retire him in November 2020 when he comes up for reelection after 36 years in the upper chamber.

A Sense Of What Might Happen In The Presidential Election Of 2020

Ronald 16 Comments

This blogger and author has been away for a few days, and has decided to wait until we know the results of the few elections taking place in 2019, before making an educated guess on the Presidential Election Of 2020. With the upset victory of Andy Beshear over Matt Bevin for the Kentucky Governorship, and the gaining of the majority in both houses of the Virginia legislature for the first time in a quarter century, the situation for Democrats looks very promising for 2020.

Understand, without a clear answer as to who the Democratic Presidential nominee will be, it is far from easy to judge how the nation will go a year from now.

But with signs that college educated people, inner suburbs, women, African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, and young people are alienated from Donald Trump and the Republican Party, here is my estimate of what might happen, subject to change, and a final judgment in late October of 2020.

Let us begin with what states are assured to be in the Democratic camp next year:

New England states—Maine (including the 2nd Congressional district which went to Donald Trump in 2016), Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island–a total of 33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic states–New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia—a total of 59 electoral votes

Southern states—Virginia—13 electoral votes

Midwest states—Illinois, Minnesota—30 electoral votes

Mountain West states—New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado—20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast states—California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii—78 electoral votes

This group of guaranteed states for the Democrats number 20 plus DC, and a total of 233 electoral votes, 37 short of the number needed to win the Presidency.

Now, states likely to go to the Democrats in order of odds—Arizona (11) and Florida (29)–a total of 40 electoral votes, giving the Democrats 273 electoral votes, 3 more than needed to win the Presidency.

Other states that might go to the Democrats—in order of odds—Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16)—a total of 77 additional electoral votes.

This would make for a total of 27 states plus DC, and a grand total of 350 electoral votes.

But also, one more electoral vote is possible, the 2nd Congressional district of Nebraska (Omaha metropolitan area), which voted for Barack Obama in 2008, so a final total of 351 electoral votes, leaving 187 electoral votes for Donald Trump or Mike Pence, or whoever the Republican Presidential nominee might be.

So the Republicans would win 23 states—West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas (all in the South)–Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska except for the 2nd Congressional District, Kansas, Oklahoma in the Midwest and Great Plains—and Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska in the Mountain West—a total of 187 electoral votes!

I welcome commentary on my estimate, and it will be an exciting year to November 3, 2020!

Kentucky, The State With The Two Worst Senators, But Appealing To Racism Of White Working Class And Poor, And Remaining In Office

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Kentucky is one of the bottom ten states in economic statistics, and its two United States Senators are probably the worst combination of Senators of any state.

Kentucky is a state of many poor whites in Appalachia, with very meager education, if any beyond high school, and resentful of minorities advancing, although they are a smaller percentage than most states. Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul have exploited the fears of their ignorant, poorly educated white population to stay in power, and do absolutely nothing for their citizenry.

Only Louisville, the home of the late Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, and Lexington, with the University of Kentucky, have any signs of interest in progress beyond the exploitation of fear of the federal government. And yet, if left up to them, McConnell and Paul would cut and destroy Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, as well as mining laws that protect workers.

And Matt Bevin, an extreme right wing conservative, and wealthy businessman in the tradition of Donald Trump, managed to be elected in 2015, and faces reelection this November. Kentucky has only had three Republican governors since World War II, but one can be sure Trump will campaign among gullible poor whites, and stoke fear of minorities and of “socialism”, the programs of the New Deal and Great Society that keep these people above water, although barely.

Kentucky will have its gubernatorial election in November, with Andy Beshear, the son of the previous Governor, Steve Beshear, and presently Attorney General of the state, trying to defeat a governor considered close to the worst in the nation. Let us hope that he succeeds, as his father was considered an outstanding governor.

Florida’s Discriminatory 150 Year Old Law Denying Voting Rights To Felons Who Have Paid Their Debt To Society Finally Being Challenged

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About 1.4 million Floridians are denied the right to vote, because of past criminal records, but have paid their debt to society.

This discriminatory law has been in place since 1868, as part of a racist policy during Reconstruction, designed against African Americans, and Governor Rick Scott and the Republican Florida Cabinet Officers have made it nearly impossible for any of this group to regain their voting rights, even a decade or more after having met all legal requirements to be able to have their voting rights restored.

Now there is a constitutional amendment question that will be on the Florida ballot in November, requiring 60 percent or more of those voting to support the end of this discrimination, only found also in three other states—Iowa, Kentucky, and Virginia—although the latter has had two Democratic Governors–Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam–who have worked on restoring rights by executive action.

Florida, as the third largest state, is an outlier on the issue, and the proposed constitutional amendment, a move done by former felons working together, seems to have a good chance of success, and particularly with the apparent popularity of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum, favored to win over Republican Ron DeSantis.

It is important to understand that anyone who has committed and been convicted of murder or rape would NOT get back their voting rights, but many felons have non violent convictions, and this is designed to restore their voting rights.

It is also ironic that about two thirds of the people who would regain their voting rights are whites, not African Americans, overcoming the stereotype that only African Americans in the past and in the present commit felonies that are non violent.