Kentucky

Rand Paul And Marco Rubio About To Give Up Senate Seats In 2016 In Highly Unlikely Quest For The Presidency!

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Two freshman Republican Senators, with great and inflated visions of becoming our 45th President, are about to give up the Senate seats they won in 2010, a position that many others would “die” for!

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and Florida Senator Marco Rubio both are about to announce for President, with the rumor being Paul will announce on April 7, and Rubio will announce on April 13.

Neither is likely to be the Republican nominee for President, and the odds of either of them defeating Hillary Clinton or even any other Democratic Presidential alternative are considered quite low.

But their visions of themselves in the White House are making them willing to forgo their Senate seats, as in neither Kentucky nor Florida does election law allow either to be on the ballot for both the primary for President and also the Senate primary race.

Both are gambling a great deal, and if they lose, which is likely, their political careers are over effectively for the short term, and possibly the long term.

Of course, either one could end up as the Vice Presidential nominee, but that is no guarantee they will win that second office, and it seems clear that their egos make it highly unlikely that either would find it possible to accept such an offer as being number 2 to another Republican Presidential nominee.

The 14 States Fighting A Rear Guard Action Against Same Sex Marriage

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As the Supreme Court considers the idea of making same sex marriage legal in the entire nation, 14 states stand in resistance.

It would be instructive to list those 14 states and indicate them by region.

The South—8 states—Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas

The Midwest—3 states—Ohio, Michigan, Missouri

The Great Plains—3 states—North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska

The only large populated states on this list are Georgia, Texas, Ohio and Michigan.

More than 70 percent of the nation’s population has the right to same sex marriage.

Once the Supreme Court considers the case of Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio and Michigan, we will have more than 80 percent covered, assuming the Court rules in favor of gay marriage, but it is likely that the Court will go all the way and make it legal in the other 10 resistant states left on the list!

A Presidential Race Without Hillary Clinton Or Jeb Bush Would Be Better For The Nation!

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CNN Anchor Candy Crowley has said that she believes Hillary Clinton will not run for President in 2016.

Charlie Cook, Editor of the Charlie Cook Political Report, has said that Hillary hurt her cause on her recent book tour, and is seen as “rusty” by many, and that many think she will not run, although he thinks she will run. Cook also says that it is highly unlikely that Jeb Bush will run, and if he does, the odds of him being the GOP nominee for 2016 are low, predicting that a Tea Party Senator or a Midwest Governor will be the likely nominee.

What Cook says, if it happens, will actually be good for the nation, as we really need new faces, someone who has not run for President, on both sides of the political divide, and that includes Mitt Romney!

So if one goes by what Crowley and Cook are saying, the most likely strong competitors on the Democratic side would be Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland, and two Virginians, Senator Mark Warner, and former Senator Jim Webb (who has recently made clear he intends to run no matter what Hillary Clinton does). Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, should not be left out of the fray, with the last two possibly entering if Hillary does not run. And New York Governor Andrew Cuomo might also choose to run. At this point, the favorite would be Elizabeth Warren. This is all based on the assumption that Vice President Joe Biden, not a new name himself, will not run, or will falter. In other words, a non Hillary race would be a lot more exciting, and a surprise could emerge from the race.

On the Republican side, if Charlie Cook is correct, it means one of the Tea Party Senators–Rand Paul of Kentucky, Marco Rubio of Florida, Ted Cruz of Texas–would emerge as the favorite, alongside a Midwestern Governor—meaning John Kasich of Ohio, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, or Mike Pence of Indiana.

Trying to imagine the final two in the Presidential race from this group is purely a guess–but somehow, the thought of Warren vs Kasich comes to mind, but really is a pure random guess!

Virginia The Only “Blue” State In The Old South In 2015, In Regards To Governorship And Senators!

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Who would ever have thought that Virginia, the capital of the Confederate States of America a century and a half ago, and the home of the Harry Byrd Dynasty for so long, resisting civil rights advancements, would end up the only state of the “Old South” to have a Democratic Governor, and two Democratic Senators going into 2015?

Terry McAuliffe, Mark Warner, and Tim Kaine are the only ones from the Democratic Party to be in office, although the state Congressional delegation is actually 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.

Only Steve Beshear in border state Kentucky is a Democratic Governor, but he is term limited and leaves at the end of 2015.

Only Bill Nelson in Florida is a Democratic Senator, other than the Virginians mentioned above, although Mary Landrieu in Louisiana has not yet lost her Senate seat, although seen as likely to lose it this coming weekend.

This historic transition from the Democratic to Republican Party in the Old South is now as complete as it has ever been!

Family Heritage May Not Be Enough Now For Winning Or Holding Political Office!

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It used to be that if a candidate or officeholder had a famous family name, that he or she would be assured of election or reelection!

Tuesday’s Midterm elections may show that the tradition of family is no longer operative.

We have the following Senators up for reelection with a strong family history in public office, but all now in trouble.

Alaska–Mark Begich
Louisiana–Mary Landrieu
Arkansas–Mark Pryor
Colorado–Mark Udall

We have the following seeking office with family names.

Georgia–Jason Carter for Governor and Michelle Nunn for Senator
Kentucky–Alison Lundergan Grimes for Senator

At this time, none of the seven above are assured of victory, if one believes the public opinion polls!

Family Names May Not Help Democratic Senators In Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, But Senate Will Remain Democratic With Margin of 53-47 Or 52-48!

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Three Democratic Senators with famous family names and moderate conservative records in office seem likely to be victims of the Republican opposition, and to lose their seats in November.

Mark Begich’s father was a Congressman from Alaska, but Begich seems likely to lose his seat to Dan Sullivan, the GOP nominee for his seat.

Mark Pryor’s father was a Senator from Arkansas, but Pryor seems likely to lose his seat to Republican Congressman Tom Cotton.

Mary Landrieu’s father and brother were Mayors of New Orleans, but although she is known for winning tight races, it seems likely she will lose her seat in the Senate to Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy.

However, these losses are likely to be matched by victories in Kentucky, Georgia, and Kansas, which will make it an even balance, and Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado, and Oregon are highly likely to remain Democratic. It is also clear that Montana and West Virginia are likely to switch from Democratic to Republican.

So the one seat left to be mentioned is South Dakota, with its four way race of Republican former Governor Mike Rounds; former Republican, now Independent Larry Pressler; and Democrat Rick Weiland, with even a fourth candidate, another Independent, Gordon Howie, making it highly likely that either Weiland or Pressler (who voted for Barack Obama twice despite his earlier GOP service in the Senate) might win this donnybrook of a race and join the Democratic caucus in the US Senate.

So this blogger predicts a final Senate of either 52 or 53 Democrats and Independents, and 47 or 48 Republicans, depending on South Dakota’s final results. That would be a 2 to 3 seat gain in the Senate for the GOP, but control of the Senate continuing for the Democrats!

Two Democratic Senate Women Nominees On Way To Victory, Insuring A Democratic Senate Majority In 2015-2016!

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As stated yesterday, the odds of two Democratic women Senators keeping their seats is highly likely–Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire and Kay Hagan in North Carolina.

Since the Democrats are bound to lose some seats in the US Senate, this is a good omen, but it is added to by the strong likelihood of two women running for the Senate in “Red” states, Kentucky and Georgia, who are seen as new women members of the upper chamber.

These are Alison Lundergan Grimes of Kentucky and Michelle Nunn of Georgia, who will counteract the likely loss of Democratic seats in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.

Grimes has had to fight a rough battle against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but the top two Kentucky newspapers have endorsed her, and the negativism and nastiness and obstructionism of McConnell makes him the number one target to defeat for Democrats nationwide. McConnell has done nothing for the large poor population, both white and black, in his state, and has been the cheer leader of every attempt to prevent Barack Obama from having any success in his time in the Presidency. In that, McConnell has failed, and it will be a glorious moment when he is forced to concede to Grimes, who has proved she is a tough lady, and that she will be a positive force in the Senate over the next six years.

Michelle Nunn, daughter of respected former Senator Sam Nunn, has run an excellent race against business David Perdue, who brags about his success at outsourcing jobs. Nunn is ahead in most polls, and is very competent and qualified, and like Grimes, is seen as likely to win, and this blogger predicts their success, along with Shaheen in New Hampshire and Hagan in North Carolina.

Tomorrow, we will look at three highly endangered seats–in Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

Republicans Flub Debates, Both Governor And Senate Candidates

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The Republican Party is self destructing in campaign debates in many states!

Florida Governor Rick Scott boycotted the first five minutes of his debate with former Governor Charlie Crist, and came across as dishonest, cold, stiff, and uncaring about those less fortunate.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker did very poorly in his debate against Democratic opponent Mary Burke.

Republican Senate candidate Thom Tillis of North Carolina was very unimpressive in his debate against Democratic Senator Kay Hagan.

Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell came across as someone who needs to retire, in his debate against Kentucky Democratic Senate opponent Allison Lundergan Grimes.

Texas Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott came across as a hypocrite in his debate against Democratic gubernatorial opponent Wendy Davis.

It is clear that most Republicans are on the defensive on their records, and that the Democrats are coming across as deserving election, or keeping their positions!

Washington Post 95% In Belief Republicans Will Win Senate In November: Totally A Delusion!

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It is amazing that the Washington Post is predicting by a percentage of 95 percent that the Republicans will win the six seats needed to control the US Senate in 2015-2016.

Even if they do, which is highly unlikely, with two thirds of the seats in 2016 having incumbent Republicans, it is certain that the Democrats, if they lose control will regain it with a major margin in 2016!

But to believe that the Republicans will gain six seats is belied by the likely defeat of Pat Roberts in Kansas and Mike Rounds in South Dakota, both which no one had thought possible to go to the Democrats.

And those who think Mary Landrieu is not going to win her seat in Louisiana forget her ability to survive, as the only sane major figure in a state which includes Bobby Jindal and David Vitter, both disgraces in every possible manner!

And Mitch McConnell in Kentucky is not going to win his seat this time around against Allison Lundergan Grimes, and Georgia will go Democratic as well with Michelle Nunn, which means even if the Republicans win six seats, they will lose three in those those two states and Kansas, and will not win one of the so called three “guaranteed” states of South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia!

North Carolina with Kay Hagan seems safe, while admittedly, Arkansas, with Mark Pryor, is in more danger.

Expect overall a three seat Senate gain for the Republicans, with the Senate going from 55-45 to 52-48, including a likely four independents, from Maine, Vermont, South Dakota (or Democrat Rick Weiland winning instead of Independent Larry Pressler), and Kansas!

The Democrats’ Secret Weapon: Young And Single Women, And Excellent Women Candidates!

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The Democratic Party has a secret weapon: Young and Single Women, and Excellent Senate candidates and Gubernatorial candidates!

Polls show that young and single women in many states are clearly angered by Republicans working to take away their rights, and will come out in large numbers to back Democrats in the midterm elections.

The margin of support for Democrats in many state polls is as high as thirty percent in some, and polls clearly indicate widespread support among young and single women in such states as North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and Kentucky, among others!

Why not? Republicans want to take away the right of abortion; the right to use contraceptives; the right of a woman to equal pay; the right of women to have more unemployment compensation; the right of women to have an increase in the minimum wage; the right of women to know that politicians do not blame them for campus rapes and military rapes; the right of women to have more available and quality child care; the right of women to expect decent health care from government, or their corporations, such as Walmart; the right of women not be insulted about their weight and figure; and the right of women to reject women Republican candidates who do not care about anyone but their own futures, and sell out to male chauvinists in the Republican Party.

So therefore, Michele Nunn of Georgia; Allison Lundergan Grimes of Kentucky; Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Shanna Bellows of Maine; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; and Natalie Tennant of West Virginia (all Senators or running for the Senate); and Wendy Davis of Texas and Mary Burke of Wisconsin (running for Governor) stand out, as does Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire; and many are likely to win their races, and make 2014, the Year of the Democratic Woman, a lot due to young and single women voting in droves!

Meanwhile, Republican women running are sounding like they are from outer space, including Senate candidates Joni Ernst of Iowa; Terri Lynn Land of Michigan; Monica Wehby of Oregon; and Shelly Moore Capito of West Virginia; and women Governors Mary Fallin of Oklahoma; Susana Martinez of New Mexico; and Nikki Haley of South Carolina.