Libertarian Party

Public Opinion Polls Show A Widening Lead For Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump, Even In “Swing” States!

Here we are at the end of June 2016, and the public opinion polls show a widening lead for Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump, even in “Swing” states.

Donald Trump is self destructing, and this less than three weeks before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and Republicans running away from Trump in droves, wishing for an alternative, but realistically, not able to gain one, other than maybe voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, former Republican Governor of New Mexico and his running mate, William Weld, former Republican Governor of Massachusetts.

If this trend continues, the reality of a massive landslide seems inevitable, and it would have the effect of a 1964 landslide of Lyndon B. Johnson over Barry Goldwater.

North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia and Arizona, and even possibly Utah, seem possible to go for Hillary Clinton, an unheard of thought just a few months ago, and with Hillary Clinton winning every state that Barack Obama won in 2012.

That would mean an Electoral College total of 401 electoral votes, with 69 being added to the 332 that Obama gained in 2012, and it would mean 32 states and DC out of the 50 states.

Tone And Temperament Harm Donald Trump With Voters, Will Prevent Expansion Of His Base!

Donald Trump’s tone and temperament are harming his Presidential campaign, and will prevent expansion of his base beyond a percentage of Republican voters.

A Bloomberg poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 49-37 today, and that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson with 9 percent.

So if one assumes that Gary Johnson will wither in support, then it seems likely that Hillary Clinton will have a larger lead in the future than just 12 points.

If that happens, then we are on the way to an electoral landslide of massive proportions.

It is still, of course, much too early to predict that, but it is clear that Donald Trump’s tone and temperament are greatly undermining his candidacy, and if he does not pivot very soon, and change his tune of misogyny, nativism, racism, and xenophobia, there is no way that Trump can possibly win the Presidency.

He has very little of an organized campaign in the “swing” states, and lives in delusion that he can, somehow, compete and win in California and New York, the two largest “Blue” states.

Donald Trump is self defeating, and his failure to change his tone and temperament will doom him in November!

The Libertarian Presidential Ticket: Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson And Former Massachusetts Governor William Weld!

In a year when there is great disillusionment with the Establishment and the Democratic and Republican Parties, the Libertarian Party, a small third party, suddenly is gaining notice, as it has two substantial former Governors as its Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates for the 2016 Presidential Election:

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson (R—1995-2003) and former Massachusetts Governor William Weld (R—1991-1997).

One public opinion poll shows the potential for the Libertarian Party to gain 10 percent of the vote, because of discontent with the two major party nominees, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

But neither Gary Johnson nor William Weld are household names, and both are from the past, with Johnson out of the Governorship of New Mexico for 13 years, and Weld out of the Governorship of Massachusetts for 19 years.

So while the fact that they were officeholders of some note in the past, the odds of that party, with its libertarian platform, being able to gain a chance to be in Presidential debates, with a minimum 15 percent average in polls needed by September to accomplish that goal, as occurred with Ross Perot in 1992 and John Anderson in 1980, seems a real long shot!

Gary Johnson And Virgil Goode Could Siphon Support For Mitt Romney In Several “Swing” States

Gary Johnson is the former Republican New Mexico Governor, and Libertarian Party candidate for President. He is also on the ballot in 47 states.

Virgil Goode is a former Republican Congressman from a district in Virginia, and Constitution Party candidate for President. He is also on the ballot in two dozen states.

Johnson is believed to have support in New Mexico, Montana, Nevada and Colorado, while Goode is thought to have support in Virginia.

Notice that these are all considered “swing” states, although New Mexico has been seen as less so than it once was, and is generally not included in recent months as being in that category. And Montana is one of those few states thought to be Republican, but with some possibility of switching to the Democrats.

But also notice that all of these states are now considered to be in favor of Barack Obama, except Montana.

So the question arises, will these former Republicans hurt Romney enough that he loses these “swing” states and even Montana, or will Obama win even with some support for Johnson and Goode in these states?

In other words, can Johnson and Goode end up for Romney as Ralph Nader was for Al Gore in 2000, the difference in votes that caused Gore’s defeat for President?

It will be interesting to see if either or both third party candidates have a significant impact on the results of the election!

Growing Possibility Of Libertarian Gary Johnson Having Impact On Presidential Election Of 2012

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s Presidential candidate, is showing some strength in polls that indicates he could be the “spoiler” in the 2012 Presidential Election, similar to what Ralph Nader was in the Presidential Election of 2000.

The effect, if Johnson gained a few percent of the vote in “battleground” or “swing” states, would be most likely to hurt Mitt Romney, the Republican Presidential nominee, rather than Democrat Barack Obama, since it seems more likely that libertarian support would come from elements in the GOP.

So the thought is that Johnson could affect the vote in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada, and help, indirectly, President Obama to win those states, although right now, Obama has the edge in Virginia, Florida, and Nevada, and is slightly ahead in Colorado, while behind in North Carolina.

If Johnson can win 3-5 percent of the vote, he could go down in history as notable enough to be recorded as having affected the election, just as Ralph Nader in 2000.

Libertarian Gary Johnson For President: What Effect Might His Candidacy Have In 2012?

Former New Mexico Republican Governor Gary Johnson is the candidate of the Libertarian Party for President in 2012.

Johnson has been pretty much ignored, and was only allowed in two GOP Presidential debates during the primary season.

Johnson, however, will be on the ballot in all 50 states, and the question is whether he could be an effective third party candidate, and be a threat to either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, and even reach the threshold of 15 percent required to be part of the three Presidential debates in September and October, as Ross Perot was able to accomplish in the 1992 Presidential campaign.

Right now, that possibility seems highly unlikely, but who knows what might transpire over the next three months, as disillusioned Americans might start to look at Gary Johnson’s candidacy!

Johnson’s views are a mix which COULD draw support from voters who are unhappy with Obama and Romney.

Among his views are:

Creating a balanced budget by cutting 43 percent of the Medicare and Medicaid budget in one year.
Abolishing the federal income and corporate taxes, and instituting a national sales tax based on consumption, instead.
Opposition to the ObamaCare legislation and the Prescription Drug Plan under George W. Bush.
Desire to withdraw from overseas engagements in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and was opposed to our involvement in Iraq and Libya from the beginning.
Opposition to the Patriot Act, and belief in civil liberties without interference by the American government.
Belief in states rights to deal with issues in their borders.
Opposition to abortion and the death penalty.
Belief in legalizing marijuana use, and the lowering of the drinking age, and believes the war on drugs has failed, and should be abandoned.
Opposition to measures for gun control legislation.
Belief that the Arizona law on illegal immigration was wrong, and would have vetoed it had it passed the legislature in New Mexico.
Support of same sex marriage and gay rights, including in the military.
Opposition to public funding of stem cell research.

This is a mix of issues that has the capacity to draw support , particularly among young people, and disillusioned voters with the major political parties.

So the question remains: Will Gary Johnson have an impact on the election, and if so, in what way?

The guess of the author is that Johnson could actually harm Mitt Romney in certain states, and possibly throw the election in those states to Barack Obama, including the states of Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Alaska, all states believed to be RED or Republican!

So Gary Johnson COULD effectively become the Ross Perot of 2012, even without gaining 19 percent of the total national vote, a feat only a wealthy person such as Ross Perot could manage. However, Gary Johnson is said to be worth about $40 million, not a measly amount, to say the least!

Two Former Governors As Third Party Candidates: Could It Affect The Presidential Election Results Of 2012?

Just a few days after an post about the likelihood that no third party would have a significant effect on the Presidential Election of 2012, suddenly the possibility arises that while no candidate is likely to win a state or gain a large percentage of votes, a 2000 Presidential Election scenario, where two candidates had small numbers of votes and percentage, and yet helped to determine the electoral vote in Florida, and therefore decide the winner of the Presidency, presents itself!

In 2000, Ralph Nader ran as the Green Party candidate and won 2.74 percent of the national vote, and Pat Buchanan ran as the Reform Party candidate and won 0.43 percent of the vote. But in Florida, about 97,000 people voted for Nader; and in Palm Beach Country, Florida, about 3,400 people incorrectly voted for Buchanan over Al Gore, because of confusion about filling out the infamous “butterfly” ballot, throwing the election in Florida to George W. Bush, and deciding the election of Bush over Al Gore.

Well, in theory, the same situation could arise in 2012, although highly unlikely that “lightning” would strike for a second time in 12 years.

Having said that, neither Ralph Nader nor Pat Buchanan were officeholders, while this election, two former governors are running, and cannot , therefore, be ignored!

The Libertarian Party has just nominated former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, and the Reform Party is likely to nominate former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer in August at their convention in Philadelphia.

Just being governors gives them a lot of status and clout, so we cannot assume that they will have no effect on the election results, just hope and pray that that is so!

Six Months To Presidential Election Of 2012: No Signs Of Strong Third Party Movement!

With six months to go to the Presidential Election of 2012, there are no signs of a strong third party movement occurring, which would have any dramatic effect on the election results.

Third parties in the past have had significance in election results, although never able to win the election.

This certainly proved true with the Free Soil Party of 1848, the Progressive Party of 1912, the American Independent Party in 1968, and the Reform Party of 1992.

And even in small ways, as in 2000, the candidacy of Ralph Nader, and even that of Pat Buchanan, had an effect on the race, particularly in Florida.

There is no such danger at this point, and with Mayor Michael Bloomberg making clear he is not running as an Independent, and instead allowing himself to be courted by both the Romney and Obama campaigns, there should be a major sigh of relief in both camps.

Yes, there will be third party candidates, but no one seriously is seen as a major figure, although it sometimes has seemed that Jon Huntsman, the former Utah Governor, might run, and Ron Paul, still technically in the race for the GOP Presidential nomination, has been rumored as a Libertarian Party candidate, as he was in 1988.

But realistically, the most “threatening” possible candidates are two former Governors who were ignored in the Republican race for President: former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. Roemer might run as the Reform Party candidate, and Johnson as the Libertarian Party candidate

Virgil Goode, former Republican Congressman from Virginia, might be the Constitution Party candidate; Roseanne Barr, the comedian, might run as the Green Party candidate; and either Buddy Roemer or former Salt Lake City, Utah, Mayor Rocky Anderson might run on the Americans Elect (online nomination) Party, with Anderson also the candidate of the Justice Party.

Of course, there is always the possibility of Ralph Nader or Donald Trump or Jesse Ventura running, as they have often talked about, but with only Nader actually running just about every four years, making him, sadly, a joke at this point, when once he had real credibility.

The point is the likelihood of a third party or independent candidate having any impact on the election is close to zero at this point!

Speculation About Reported Alliance Between Mitt Romney And Ron Paul: Could It Lead To Rand Paul Being Vice Presidential Running Mate Of Romney?

Political pundits, including Joe Scarborough of MORNING JOE on MSNBC, have noticed what seems like a warm friendship between two Republican Presidential candidates, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

It has become obvious that Ron Paul has spent a lot of money on attack ads in various states against Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, and now Rick Santorum, as each has become a major challenger to Mitt Romney. He has also attacked them on debate stages, as he did last night against Rick Santorum.

This seems very weird to many observers, as Mitt Romney is not a libertarian or a believer in the withdrawal of America’s involvement overseas, which Ron Paul stands for.

And Ron Paul is too old to be considered as a running mate, but then it is recognized that his son, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who is 49 years old, has already said he would be honored to be considered for Vice President, a very strong hint that a deal could be struck to put Rand Paul in the Vice Presidential slot as a way to unite diverse elements of the GOP for November.

In many ways, it would be a “shotgun marriage”, but not the first in American history, as for instance, the team of Franklin D. Roosevelt and John Nance Garner in 1932; the team of Dwight D. Eisenhower and Richard Nixon in 1952; the team of John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1960; and the team of Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush in 1980, were not based on close friendship or ties between the Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees. They were done for maximum political advantage.

The problem with this possibility of Mitt Romney teaming with Rand Paul is that it puts Rand Paul and his extremist libertarian philosophy a potential heartbeat away from the Presidency, although the positive side for Romney is that it makes a Libertarian Party challenger less likely or, at least, less able to draw away votes if there is one, such as former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. Ron Paul has a lot of supporters, who could be drawn to support Mitt Romney, if he selected Rand Paul.

So this new rumor makes one think that it could be a way to help Romney clinch the nomination and have somewhat united support, but the thought of a possible President Rand Paul would be a radical change unacceptable to mainstream and centrist political attitudes.

Possible Plans Of Romney’s Opponents For The Republican Presidential Nomination

As a result of the Mitt Romney win in Florida, many political observers can now sense the possibility of chaos in the Republican party, as the Panhandle area of Florida, the “Old South” area of Florida, voted heavily for Newt Gingrich. This can stir Gingrich to try to win all of the Southern primaries, and have, at the least, a regional base for his Presidential campaign.

Gingrich, angry at the Romney negative campaign against him in Florida, is also now hinting that he will run a campaign to appeal to the American people, rather than the Republican Party, and that seems a strong hint that he might run as an independent in November, if he fails to win the GOP nomination.

Meanwhile, there is also the possibility of Texas Congressman Ron Paul also running in November as a libertarian candidate, and already, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who was a participant in two early debates, has dropped out and is a declared candidate for the Libertarian Party nomination.

Also, there seem to be hints that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum seems ready to stay in the race, although he has not done well in South Carolina and Florida. It could be that Santorum really hopes that Gingrich will withdraw eventually, and that he could become the conservative alternative to Romney. Or it could be that Santorum is staying in to PREVENT Gingrich from having a chance to be the nominee, and that Romney will award him with the Vice Presidential nomination!

And of course, Donald Trump has also threatened to run as an independent in November, if he is displeased with the ultimate nominee of the party.

These scenarios could work out to be false, but they certainly seem plausible at this point, and add to the interest in the Presidential campaign!