Lindsey Graham

Is “White Flight” Against Republicans And Donald Trump Occurring In 2020?

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Based on recent polls that seem unbelievable, the idea of “White Flight” from Republicans might be happening.

This would be due to the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the collapse of the economy, but also due to the shock and outrage of many people toward Donald Trump, and his behavior in the Presidency these past three and a half years!

His incompetence and lack of compassion and empathy is making many white voters reconsider the upcoming elections.

So the number of states experiencing polls that show Republicans running behind for the Congress, as well as the President, are multiplying.

Many suburban women, college educated whites, independents, moderate Republicans, and all age groups among whites, except for seniors, are moving toward the possibility of voting for Democrats in Congress, and also for former Vice President Joe Biden.

There is still, theoretically, time for many of these people to reconsider their move away from Trump and the Republican Party, but since events are not going to get better anytime soon, and actually are worsening daily, that is highly unlikely.

So the situation looks as follows:

As indicated in earlier blog posts, the 20 states and Washington DC, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, seem securely in Joe Biden’s camp.

Add to this the six states that determined the election for Donald Trump in the Electoral College, all having voted for Barack Obama in 2012–Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. As of now, the latter four seem clearly in Biden’s camp, and would insure a Democratic victory for the White House.

But Ohio and Iowa also show leanings toward Biden, and other states, thought to be “Red”, also are showing evidence of the same leanings, including North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, but also Kansas, Montana, Indiana and Missouri, and the 2nd district of Nebraska. This would mean 443 electoral votes to 95, as this author and blogger predicted on April 30.

So 34 states could go to Biden, and the Republican US Senators or open seats running in Maine, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, two in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, and Montana are all in danger as well.

South Carolina and Kentucky seem hard to overcome on the Presidential level, but both Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell seem in a real tight race for their seats, and could lose.

If all of these Senate seats went Democratic, the party could control 12 more seats than they have now, with 59 maximum, or if the one endangered Democrat, Doug Jones in Alabama, lost, it would be 58 seats. If there is a “Blue Wave”, however, one would think Jones would survive his Senate race!

The way things are going, one could even imagine some of the 16 “certain” states for Trump voting against him by small margins, but enough to give the state to Joe Biden.

This would include Alaska, South Carolina, and Kentucky with a total of 20 electoral votes, so if the maximum imaginable occurred, the final electoral vote would be 37 states and 463 electoral votes to 75 for Trump!

And this would mean that Joe Biden would win by a likely ten point or more margin in the total popular vote!

One more time, in mid to late October, this author and blogger will make a final projection on the likely Senate and Presidential results!

Six Months Out Projection On US Senate: A Democratic Majority

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Having projected the Presidential Election of 2020 yesterday, today I will project, six months out, subject to change as we get closer to the election, the likely Senate balance in 2021-2022.

It seems very likely at this point that the Democrats will win the majority of the US Senate, and kick out Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader.

And I think the odds of Kentucky defeating McConnell for reelection are growing.

So let us look at state by state for the Senate in the 2020 election cycle.

There will be 12 Democratic held seats and 23 Republican held seats up for election.

This insures that the Democrats will gain seats, and it would seem highly likely that they will gain at least 3 seats, enough for control if Joe Biden wins the Presidency, as his female Vice President would be able to organize the Senate, and break any potential tie votes.

Much more likely is that the Democrats might gain up to 7 additional seats, by winning 8 races, but likely losing Doug Jones in Alabama, but that loss is certainly not an automatic result so the total number of Democrats could go to 53-55 as a maximum.

Other than Doug Jones, who has proved to be an inspiration that Alabama has potential for growth, the other 11 Democratic seats seem safe.

Tom Udall is leaving his New Mexico Senate seat, but it seems safely Democratic, as does Ed Markey’s seat in Massachusetts, although he might lose the Senate primary to Joe Kennedy III, but the seat will stay Democratic.

Turning to the Republicans, the following 11 seats seem safe:

Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming, although Lamar Alexander in Tennessee and Mike Enzi in Wyoming are leaving office, but still both of those states seem safe for Republicans.

So that leave 11 seats safe, but the other 12 unpredictable.

Most likely to go Democratic are in likeliness to occur:

Martha McSally seat in Arizona

Cory Gardner seat in Colorado

Kelly Loeffler seat in Georgia

Susan Collins seat in Maine

Steve Daines seat in Montana

Thom Tillis seat in North Carolina

Less likely to switch parties are in likelihood of occurring:

Joni Ernst seat in Iowa

Pat Roberts (retiring) seat in Kansas

David Perdue seat in Georgia

John Cornyn seat in Texas

Lindsey Graham seat in South Carolina

Mitch McConnell seat in Kentucky

My judgment is that one of those last six seats, likely Iowa, will also go Democratic, which means a gain of 7 seats to 54 or 53 if Doug Jones loses his seat.

But also, Kansas and Georgia (David Perdue) could surprise, and we can hope for a “miracle” that the two most despicable of a horrible group of Republicans, Graham or McConnell, might actually be defeated, along with Cornyn.

So in the best of all worlds, which would be a dream, imagine if the Republicans lost all 12 seats in contention, and did not defeat Doug Jones in Alabama, and we would have the grand total of 59 seats!

But reality sets in, and expect 53-55 seats for the Democrats, subject to changing dynamics, so we will look at this again in October.

Despicable, Disgraceful Behavior By Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, Marsha Blackburn, Rand Paul, In Midst Of Impeachment Trial Of Donald Trump

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The first week of the Donald Trump Impeachment Trial has shown despicable, disgraceful behavior by Republican Senators, including Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, Marsha Blackburn, and Rand Paul, among others.

Graham has made it clear he is more concerned about having unlimited Presidential power than the Constitution, but when a Democrat is President again, he will quickly reverse course.

Mitch McConnell is trying to shorten the trial, and deny new evidence and any witnesses, making the trial a mockery, if that occurs.

Marsha Blackburn has attacked one of the impeachment witnesses, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, for having testified, and accusing him of a lack of patriotism, an outrageous charge.

Rand Paul has been mocking the idea of listening to the trial, and has shown lack of respect for the prosecutors, and argued that there should be no witnesses, a strange idea for a person who claims to be a libertarian, who should care about the dangers of unlimited Presidential authority.

These Republicans, and really all of the party in Congress, is making themselves a disgrace to the history and traditions of the party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush.

The US Senate, As An Institution, Is On Trial

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The US Senate, often called the greatest legislative body in the world, and based on the concept of the Roman Senate, is clearly, on trial.

It has had a grand total of 1,984 members since March 4, 1789, and at least a few hundred have been major players in US History.

It has also had its scoundrels and low lifes, but it has always played an important role in US history.

Courage and principle has often governed what happened, while other times, pure dirty politics has ruled the day, such as right now, as Senator Mitch McConnell, the Majority Leader, is doing everything he can to deny the American people a fair impeachment trial of Donald Trump.

The trial, sadly, may be a sham, but the Republican Party will pay for it with a loss of control of the Senate, and the defeat of scoundrels such as McConnell and Lindsey Graham.

History is waiting, and will not be kind to any US Senator who does not promote a fair trial!

The Ten Major Villains Of 2019 In Public Affairs

Ronald 8 Comments

The year 2019 has brought us many villains in public affairs, and it is difficult to select those most villainous and against common decency and humanity.

But here goes:

President Donald Trump

Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani

Attorney General William Barr

Republican Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio

Republican Congressman Devin Nunes of California

Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina

Attorney Alan Dershowitz

Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos

Fox News Channel Host Sean Hannity

Republican Party Totally Unprincipled On Trump Impeachment, While Going After Bill Clinton On Flimsier Grounds Twenty Years Ago

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The Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush has gone totally bonkers, as the 2019 Republican party has demonstrated it is totally unprincipled on the growing evidence of the clear cut obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and other crimes that call for President Donald Trump to be impeached.

By comparison, Bill Clinton was a choir boy, with the worst action he took being engaging in sex in the Oval Office, and lying about it, for which the late 1990s Republican Party impeached him on far flimsier grounds.

Now, we see those engaged in going after Bill Clinton, including Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham, Newt Gingrich, and a multitude of other hypocrites, willing to overlook every misdeed by Donald Trump, and sacrifice their reputations to defend a President who deserves no defense.

It is as if a religious cult has emerged, and as if Donald Trump is a God like figure. Republicans are willing to sacrifice their reputation in history, as they will not stand up well in the future for their willingness to bow down to Trump, when he is always willing to throw them under the bus, having no loyalties to anyone, and only concerned about his own selfish, greedy desires to grab more power and destroy the US Constitution.

Will the Republican Party ever come out of its fog and unreal state of consciousness?

Republican Senators Who Do Not Support Lindsey Graham Resolution Condemning House Impeachment Inquiry

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Mitt Romney of Utah

Susan Collins of Maine

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Mike Enzi of Wyoming

Cory Gardner of Colorado

Johnny Isakson of Georgia

This means that Lindsey Graham is not able to gain support from the entire Republican Senate caucus, and is a hint of the likelihood that such a resolution to condemn the House of Representatives Impeachment Inquiry will fail to gain a majority of the US Senate.

It could be that a vote for conviction in an impeachment trial might be 54-46, not enough to remove Donald Trump, but a major slap in the face, nevertheless to the 45th President.

And it could be more than seven Republican Senators could end up voting against Trump, although the likelihood of reaching the threshold of 20 Republicans joining with all 47 Democrats to remove Donald Trump is very much a long shot.

Donald Trump Comparing Impeachment Probe To Lynching Is Totally Disgraceful And Reprehensible!

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Donald Trump has the gall to compare the impeachment probe going on in the House of Representatives to a lynching, demonstrating his total lack of the history of lynching, and his lack of concern for the racism that he continues to display incessantly!

Lynching went on for a century after the Civil War and reached its peak in the post World War I years, with thousands of African Americans, and some Hispanics, Jews, and Catholics also being tortured and murdered and set on fire in a brutal fashion, that was long covered up.

But now there is a Lynching Museum in Montgomery, Alabama, called the National Memorial for Peace and Justice and the Legacy Museum, and there are other Civil Rights Museums that demonstrate through horrible photographs and contemporary accounts the obscene abuse and lack of concern for human life in the American South and much of the Midwest and even California, as well, where African Americans were seen as less than human.

The photos are hard to look at, and the realization that children and large crowds often witnessed these miscarriages of justice, cheered it on, and took human flesh as souvenirs of the “sporting event” they had just participated in or lost all sense of morality, ethics and religiosity by not caring about the suffering of thousands of mostly men, but also some women.

Donald Trump comes across more every day as a totally obscene, disgraceful excuse for a human being, who has no concern about the human suffering that goes on around him in America and in the world at large.

If there was ever a President as deserving of impeachment, conviction, and imprisonment for the crimes he has conducted or endorsed by his incendiary, reckless rhetoric, it is Donald Trump, as no one else, not even Richard Nixon was anywhere near as evil as the 45th President of the United States!

And for Senator Lindsey Graham to defend Trump’s comment is beyond belief, and John McCain would be furious at his former friend for defending Trump!

Major Republican Opposition To Trump On Abandonment Of Kurds To Turkish Dictatorship Desire To Exterminate Them

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Donald Trump has opened up a major revolt in the Republican Party by his decision to abandon the Kurds, who helped defeat ISIS, and allowing the Turkish dictatorship to mount an assault, with the purpose of “ethnic cleansing” of a nationality, which has long wanted its own nationhood, but is considered by the Turks to be a terrorist group. However, thousands of Kurds died fighting ISIS alongside the international coalition led by the United States.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senator Lindsey Graham, House Republican Conference Chair Liz Cheney, Senator Marco Rubio, Senator Ben Sasse, Senator Rob Portman, Senator Patrick Toomey, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Christian Broadcasting Network evangelical Pat Robertson, and innumerable others denounced Trump. They said he was undermining national security, and creating the likelihood of revived ISIS terrorism in the future.

Trump is proving how he has no concept of how to deal with foreign policy, and is most interested in pleasing dictators as with Turkey, a nation which should not be favored in assessments of the Middle East.

Whether this anger and growing split on the Kurds will cause any real opposition to Trump on other issues, and on the impending impeachment, seems highly unlikely, but Trump clearly is undermining Republican fear of antagonizing him.

The Disgraceful Sycophants For Donald Trump: Rudy Giuliani, Stephen Miller, Kevin McCarthy, Jim Jordan, Lindsey Graham, And More

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History will record in a condemnatory way the long list of disgraceful sycophants who have legitimized Donald Trump’s abuse of power and obstruction of justice.

The leading sycophants include:

Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has gone totally off the rails, and seems clearly to have lost all morality and ethics, amidst signs of dementia.

Stephen Miller, the 34 year old senior adviser for Trump, who has demonstrated his total lack of decency, compassion, and empathy, and is perceived by some as the new modern young Roy Cohn of the Joseph McCarthy era, a Jewish man who shows totally despicable and indefensible behavior, including racism and nativism to the extreme.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, who makes Paul Ryan and John Boehner both seem far less objectionable than they actually were, and a total liar and phony who disgraces the Republican Party in the lower chamber.

Ohio Congressman Jim Jordan, a truly obnoxious, nasty and arrogant Tea Party activist who spews forth poisonous propaganda on a regular basis.

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, who thought Bill Clinton should be impeached, but now sees no grounds for Donald Trump to be impeached. His former friend, the late John McCain, would be sorely disappointed with his behavior defending Trump,

The list is much more than these five, and now includes Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Attorney General William Barr, both of whom, by their lies and deception and unwillingness to cooperate in the impeachment investigation of Donald Trump, could face legal action and impeachment on their own.

Never has there been so many people willing to sacrifice their careers and reputations to defend a President who is the most unethical, immoral, and cruel person we have ever had in the White House, who now has the gall to say he will never leave the Presidency, implying the end of the 22nd Amendment and democratic elections in the future, as if he is an Emperor or King,

The threat of civil war enunciated by religious right wing fanatics must not prevent the rule of law, and the willingness, if need be, to remove Donald Trump forcibly from the Oval Office in chains and handcuffs if need be, to uphold the Constitution of the United States!