Maine

Trump V Anderson Supreme Court Case Demonstrates A Bitterly Divided Court!

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The right wing Supreme Court has determined that Donald Trump cannot be barred from Presidential primary ballots, despite many conservatives, including former Circuit Court Judge J. Michael Luttig among many others, stating that his inciting of the US Capitol Insurrection of January 6, 2021 violated the 14th Amendment, Section Three.

The decision was that it is up to Congress to bar anyone from running for President, not individual state governments.

In so doing, the decision demonstrated a bitterly divided Court, as the four women on the Court, three Democrats and Justice Amy Coney Barrett, while part of an unanimous vote, made clear their discomfort with the issue of Donald Trump being able to avoid responsibility for his actions on January 6.

If Trump had been removed from the ballot in Colorado, Maine and Illinois, it would have led to further incitement by Trump on the basis that he was being denied the right to be judged by the American people.

So the understanding is that ultimately it is up to the American people and their voting to repudiate this Insurrectionist by reelecting Joe Biden in November!

The Supreme Court has lost all credibility, and its public opinion rating is an all time low, with particularly two of its members—Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito—being seen as corrupt and personally obnoxious—and the Court being the most right wing since the early 1930s.

Marjorie Taylor Greene Promoting Secession Of “Red” From “Blue” States!

Ronald 2 Comments

Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a true whacko, is promoting the idea of secession of “Red” states from “Blue” states.

She is clearly crazy, as she fails to realize that Blue areas are found in most states that are not rural–meaning urban and suburban areas–and so called “Blue’ States contribute much more to the national economic system than do so called “Red’ States.

The so called “Red” states are mostly rural, and in 2022, they are the poorest, most dependent on the redistribution of income primarily coming from wealthier, more urbanized and suburbanized “Blue” states.

The poorest states are almost completely “Red” states—West Virginia, New Mexico, Mississippi, Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Wyoming, Montana–with only New Mexico and Maine being “Blue” states based on state government control.

What makes America the nation that it has become is the diversity of America–the industry, the universities, the culture of varying groups who live in cities and suburban areas—not the isolation of “Red” rural America, which lives, in many respects, in the 19th century, while “Blue” America represents the 21st century!

Final Projection On Congressional Elections Of 2020

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With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.

The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.

Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.

The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.

The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:

Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally

Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner

Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins

Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue

Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines

North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis

Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst

Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall

South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham

Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.

Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!

Nebraska District 2 And Maine District 2 Could Decide Presidential Election Of 2020? Really? Yes!

Ronald 3 Comments

Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that allow a split electoral vote, with Nebraska having 5 electoral votes and Maine having 4 electoral votes.

But in 2008, Barack Obama won one electoral vote in Nebraska, while the state majority went Republican.

And in 2016, Donald Trump won one electoral vote in Maine, while the state majority went Democratic.

Assuming Joe Biden won back just two Trump states from 2016–Pennsylvania and Michigan, but failed to win back Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, other Obama states in 2012 lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the following possible scenarios could occur!

We would go from 306 for Trump and subtract 20 for Pennsylvania and 16 for Michigan, and Biden would win with exactly 270 electoral votes!

But if the one Maine district stayed with Trump, the electoral vote would be a tie, 269-269, and the House of Representatives would choose the President, as they did in 1800 and 1824, with each state having one vote based on the majority of either party holding Congressional seats in each state.

But the 269-269 vote could be overcome if the one Nebraska district switched to support of Biden, as it did for Obama in 2008, and Biden would have 270 electoral votes!

Right now 26 states have Republican majority delegations, but that could change, if the Democrats were able to win two more states with a majority delegation of their party.

Of course, seven states only have one House member, so that person alone determines the state vote in those seven states.

Also, if we ended up with 25 states having a Republican and 25 having Democratic majority delegations, then there would be a massive constitutional crisis with the tie that would exist!

We could have Inauguration Day approach, and no certainty that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be declared the winner.

So then, Nancy Pelosi, assuming the House of Representatives stayed in Democratic hands, would become Acting President until, somehow, the deadlock was broken!

The Maine-Nebraska Split Electoral Vote Nightmare And The Presidential Election Of 2020

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Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that have allowed, by state legislative action, a split in the electoral vote for President.

Maine adopted this concept in 1972 and Nebraska in 1992, and a split has occurred once in each state.

In 2008, Barack Obama won the 2nd district of Nebraska (Omaha and its suburbs), the first and only time that Nebraska has seen a Democratic electoral vote since 1964.

In 2016, Donald Trump won Maine’s 2nd district, which covers most of the state away from Portland, Augusta, and nearly coastal areas, with that being the first time a Republican won an electoral vote since 1988.

So if Donald Trump won every state he gained in 2016, except Michigan and Pennsylvania, he would win the Electoral College no matter what the popular vote majority of the Democratic Presidential nominee, by a 270-268 margin. But if he lost the 2nd district of Maine, the Electoral College would be 269-269.

The same would occur if the Democratic Presidential nominee won the 2nd district of Nebraska as Obama did in 2008, as then the Electoral College would be 269-269.

This would be a true constitutional crisis beyond any other Presidential election in American history!

16 Months To Election: 15 States In Contention In Electoral College

Ronald 3 Comments

With 16 months until the Presidential Election of 2020, the election is settled in 35 states, and the remaining 15 states are in contention, and will decide the Electoral College and the winner of the Presidency.

8 states were Republican last time, but are, in theory, in contention:

Arizona

Florida

Georgia

Michigan

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Texas

Wisconsin

Additionally, Nebraska is Republican, but allows split electoral votes since 1992, and in 2008, Barack Obama won the 2nd District electoral vote, so in theory, that district, including Omaha and its suburbs, is in contention.

The Democrats won 5 states that are, in theory, in contention:

Colorado

Minnesota

Nevada

New Hampshire

Virginia.

Additionally, Maine is Democratic, but allows split electoral votes since 1972, and Donald Trump won the 2nd District electoral vote, so in theory, that district, including most of the state away from Portland, Augusta and nearby coastal areas, is in contention.

So both Nebraska and Maine have the potential to see one electoral vote go to the loser of the state, in the statewide race.

If the Hispanic-Latino vote can be magnified for the Democrats, it gives them the chance to win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

The close Democratic majorities in their five states in contention—Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia—give the Republicans the opportunity to pick up electoral votes there.

It seems clear at this time that when and if the Hispanic-Latino vote increases enough for the Democrats, likely by 2024 and 2028, and with increased electoral votes in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas assured after the 2020 Census, then the Democrats could have a lock on the Presidency for the long term, even if the Midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin become more Republican, and even if Minnesota and Virginia were to become more competitive for the Republicans. And Colorado and Nevada, with increased Hispanic-Latino influence over the next decade, would be more assuredly Democratic as well.

Even Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nebraska would matter far less, as well as Ohio, which now looks out of contention for the Democrats at present.

Final Projection On The 2018 Midterm Elections: Democratic House And Senate, And Massive Gain In Democratic Governors

Ronald 2 Comments

The time has come, the day before the Midterm Elections of 2018, to come up with a final projection on the results.

The sense is that the Democrats are in better shape than many polls indicate, although it might be seen by many as fanciful thinking on my part.

But I sense that the Democrats will do very well on Tuesday, as the first time, other than special elections, to register the people’s view on Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

Yes, there is the loyal base, but that is below 40 percent of the nation.

It seems clear that Independents, Suburban men and women, millennials of both genders, African Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans, the Jewish community, and Social Justice Catholics are united in their disgust at the behavior, policies, and corruption of Donald Trump and his administration.

The American people are a good people overall, and one must remember that Donald Trump lost the popular vote massively, but now all that matters is winning more votes than any opponent, and in that regard, Trump and the Republicans who refused to take a stand against him, are on the way to a massive repudiation by the voters.

That does not mean that every nasty Republican will lose or every Democrat that many would wish elected will be successful.

And it could be that, as in 2016, this blogger and author could be way off in his assessment, and I am prepared for that, as much as one can be.

But my inner being tells me the following:

There are so many Republican seats in play in the House of Representatives, including those that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, that one has to believe that many are turning Democratic in this election—including in upstate New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, and California. So expect that while in theory there could be as many as maybe 71 or as few as 15 gains by the Democrats, my feeling is that a safe number is 40-45 seats, which if 45, would make for about 240 Democrats to 195 Republicans, basically a switch from what it is now.

In the US Senate, the Democrats would have to win a net gain of two seats, which now seems attainable. This blogger senses a gain of four Republican seats—Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and even Texas with Beto O’Rourke, but with a loss of two seats, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Joe Donnelly in Indiana. But that means Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Bill Nelson in Florida would retain their seats, as all three are tough political leaders. So if this all happened, a bit of a miracle, there would be 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, so the Democrats would control and organize the Senate. This prognosis also means the three leading politicians who this author has placed on his “Dream List” of those he wanted defeated, would be—-Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, and Marsha Blackburn.

As far as Governorships, the Democrats have 16 right now, and my projection is that they would gain the Midwest states of Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Kansas, along with Southern states Florida and Georgia, along with New Mexico, Nevada, and New England states Maine and Vermont, giving them a total of 28 states under Democratic control. This also means that Scott Walker and Kris Kobach would not be elected in Wisconsin and Kansas, making my “Dream List” fulfilled for the first five on the list.

On the other hand, it is likely that Steve King will win in Iowa for his Congressional seat, although this blogger believes David Brat in his Richmond, Virginia Congressional seat, will lose.

So overall, all but Steve King on my “Dream List” to defeat would lose, while all five of my “Dream List” to win—Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams, Richard Cordray, and Gavin Newsom, would be triumphant.

This blogger and author may look silly two or three days from now, but that is my final projection, and we shall see!

Key Democrats To Elect As State Governors: Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams, Ben Jealous, Gavin Newsom, Richard Cordray, J. D. Pritzker, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer

Ronald 2 Comments

It is urgent that Democrats, who at present, only have 16 state governorships, win a majority of the 36 gubernatorial races taking place this November.

Among the crucial races to win are the following:

Andrew Gillum in Florida

Stacey Abrams in Georgia

Ben Jealous in Maryland

Gavin Newsom in California

Richard Cordray in Ohio

J. D. Pritzker in Illinois

Tony Evers in Wisconsin

Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan

With other large states in Democratic hands and likely to remain so, including:

Andrew Cuomo in New York

Tom Wolff in Pennsylvania

it would mean that Democrats would control most of the larger states’ executive branches, crucial for reapportionment of seats in state legislatures and the US House of Representatives after the Census in 2020.

Only Texas of the top ten states in population would be likely to remain Republican, and with North Carolina (Roy Cooper) and New Jersey (Phil Murphy) and Virginia (Ralph Northam) and Washington State (Jay Inslee) all under Democratic Governors, it would mean 12 of the top 13 states with nearly two thirds of the nation’s population would be controlled by Democrats.

Add Democratic states likely to remain so, including Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Louisiana, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, Rhode Island, and the possibility of winning in Maryland, Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont, and New Mexico, and you have a majority of Democratic run state governorships. Finally, Nevada and Arizona seem long shots, but could, in a “Blue Wave” be won by Democratic nominees for governor in those states.

But even if not a majority of states, if the large populated states are won, it will benefit the Democrats in the coming reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives.

It Is Time For Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, And Red State Democrats To Put Nation Ahead Of Their Own Senate Seats

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It is perfectly understood that all people who work like to keep their jobs and earn their income.

But there is no member of the US Senate that is “desperate” and “needy” to keep their jobs.

What is needed now is, as John F. Kennedy wrote, “Profiles in Courage”.

Republican Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, so called “moderate” Republicans, need to stand up and say, “NO WAY”, would they support Brett Kavanaugh to fill the available seat on the Supreme Court, since he clearly has a record of being anti abortion, and both women Senators claim they are pro choice, so they must refuse to support him.

It is clear that Brett Kavanaugh has committed perjury a number of times in earlier hearings before the Senate while under oath, and he should not be promoted to the Supreme Court, with his record of pursuing Bill Clinton with Ken Starr 20 years ago; his advocacy of torture in the Iraq War; his promotion of an anti gay marriage amendment under George W. Bush; and his unwillingness to say he would recuse himself from any case involving Trump and the scandals that have erupted in the past two years.

But even if Collins and Murkowksi were to back off on Kavanaugh, the requirement also is for Red State Democrats, who are running for reelection, to vote against Kavanaugh in unison, even if it leads to their defeat, which seems unlikely in the present political climate.

So that means West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp, Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly, Montana Senator Jon Tester, and Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill MUST save the nation from a Right Wing extremist Supreme Court, even if they lose their seats, putting the nation ahead of their own ambitions.

The Crucial Role Of Two Republican Pro Choice Women Senators: Susan Collins And Lisa Murkowski

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It is going to be a major pressure point brought against two women Republican Senators—Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska—that will likely decide if Donald Trump gains the confirmation of his Supreme Court nominee before the midterm elections.

Both women are pro choice, and wanted to keep ObamaCare, and are considered moderates of the Republican brand.

Both come from small populated states, mainly rural and poor, and needing ObamaCare, with no alternative offered by the Republican majority in Congress or Donald Trump.

Both have, however often voted with their party under pressure, even on support of Neil Gorsuch for the Supreme Court last year.

Both have often disappointed observers who wanted to believe they had courage and guts.

Both are broad based social moderates, but they have been unwilling to defy party leadership, led by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

So the odds that they will do the right thing is a long shot.

Particularly in the case of Susan Collins, who disappointed many when she testified in favor of the confirmation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions, because they were Senate colleagues, and “friends”, as if that is justification for supporting the most bigoted, racist Attorney General in American history!