Mark Warner

Bill De Blasio, The Clintons, And The Shift To The Left In The Democratic Party

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The inauguration of New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio, sworn in on a Bible used by Franklin D. Roosevelt, with the oath being given by former President Bill Clinton, with Hillary Clinton also present, was a ceremony full of symbolism.

De Blasio, a Mayor in the tradition of Fiorello La Guardia and John Lindsay; a true liberal and progressive in the tradition of Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal and Lyndon B. Johnson and the Great Society; a Clinton Administration Housing and Urban Development official; the campaign manager for Hillary Clinton’s Senate campaign in 2000; the head of an interracial family; and a man fully involved in the struggle of the poor in New York City, and fighting for the wealthy to pay more taxes for universal pre K education (as he said $943 a year or a small coffee cost every day)—this is a man to admire, to cheer, to be willing to go to bat for in any struggle that will occur over the next four years as he works to end the “Tale of Two Cities”, which allows the greed of Wall Street while a large percentage of the city cannot survive on a living wage!

Bill Clinton made the connection between Bill De Blasio and himself and his wife, and in so doing, made a clear shift to the left from the centrism Democratic image he cultivated during his eight year Presidency.

And that makes it very clear that Hillary Clinton has decided to run for President, and is embracing the leftward trend represented by Bill De Blasio, and is making clear to Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, and others on the populist left, that she is not willing to cede any turf on the Democratic Party to any of her rivals on the left, or to Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Mark Warner or anyone else thinking of running for President.

Governors And The Presidential Election Of 2016

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It has often been pointed out that more Governors have been elected President over the course of American history than Senators.

From 1900 on, the following Presidents were earlier Governors of their states—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

The argument is that being a Governor prepares one better for the Presidency than serving in the national government in Washington, DC.

Whether this is true or not, the argument now is that the national government, and particularly the Congress, is so engaged in stalemate and gridlock, that the best choice in the Presidential Election of 2016 would be to go once again for a Governor or former Governor, as occurred four times of the past six Presidents, and seven of the past ten national elections.

So if that is the case, what is the market among Governors?

First, the Democratic side:

Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Mark Warner of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Jerry Brown of California
Howard Dean of Vermont
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Dannel Malloy of Connecticut

Now the Republican side

Chris Christie of New Jersey
Jeb Bush of Florida
Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Mike Pence of Indiana
Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Rick Scott of Florida

So, at least in theory, nine former or sitting Democratic Governors and twelve former or sitting Republican Governors are potential Presidential nominees.

Having said that, it is clear that some of these two groups are highly unlikely to be a candidate, or to have any realistic chance to be the nominee, including for the Democrats: Brown, Dean, Malloy, and Patrick, and for the Republicans: Scott, Martinez, Sandoval, Pence, Haley, and sadly (because he would be the best choice for the GOP long term), Huntsman.

For the Democrats, O’Malley and Cuomo and Warner (who has also served in the Senate), would be the best choices, were it not for the “800 pound gorilla” of Hillary Clinton and the slightly smaller version of Joe Biden. Were it not for them, these three listed Democrats would be a great term to compete for the nomination. Hickenlooper is also a good candidate, but would not be considered as likely to have a good chance, and Schweitzer might very well run, based on recent comments and activities, but the odds for him, especially against Clinton and Biden as things now stand, are extremely high of failure, and even of being mostly ignored by political pundits.

For the Republicans, Christie and Bush would be the most likely to have a real opportunity for the Presidency, but with the Tea Party Movement, neither is very popular, to say the least. Walker might be a better bet on that score, with Jindal seeming less attractive as time goes by, and Perry a real long shot based on his past performances. The “dark horse” to watch would be Kasich, who had a long career on Capitol Hill and knows how Washington works, and despite his mixed record in so many areas, is personally appealing, unlike any of those listed In this paragraph, in many ways the most appealing personally other than Huntsman.

If one had to bet which of each list would have the best chance, all things being equal, one would say O’Malley for the Democrats and Kasich for the Republicans, but the odds are that it will be someone from Capitol Hill–Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden for the Democrats, and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan for the Republicans, with the Democrats having the clear edge in the Electoral College, because of the support of the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast, and the likelihood of strong support in the upper Midwest and Illinois and Iowa, along with Virginia, an unmatchable scenario for the Republicans, as we look at the political situation as 2013 ends, but always subject to changing times that are unpredictable.

Virginia Turning Blue: Great Sign For Democratic Party Future!

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Virginia, the home of more Presidents than any other state, has been seen as a bellwether state, as it holds its state elections in the year after the Presidential election.

For the first time since 1969, Virginia now has a Democratic Governor, Terry McAuliffe, along with a Democratic Lieutenant Governor, a Democratic Attorney General (although a recount is going on as the victory was razor thin), and two Democratic Senators (Mark Warner and Tim Kaine).

Assuming the recount for Attorney General keeps the Democrat as the winner, it is a sign that the right wing Republican Party in Virginia has lost its bearings, and that the state of Virginia, while still officially seen as purple, is really becoming a Democratic state, largely due to the growing influence of federal government workers, a large portion of the population in the Northern Virginia counties.

It is also seen as a great moment for Hillary Clinton, who is closely associated with new Governor Terry McAuliffe, a prodigious fund raiser for her husband, Bill Clinton, when he was in office.

With Virginia in the Democratic camp, the future of the party is in good shape for Presidential races (with Barack Obama winning the state twice), and Virginia’s trend may soon be seen in Georgia and Texas.

The Pluses And Minuses Of A Bernie Sanders Independent Presidential Candidacy

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Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is a true national treasure, an independent Socialist, longest serving Independent member of Congress in American history, who allies with the Democratic Party but is not a member of the party.

Sanders, originally Mayor of Burlington, Vermont, served as the only House member from his state for 16 years, from 1991-2007, and is now in his second term in the US Senate.

He has now devoted 23 years to service for his state and the nation, and even if one does not agree with his stands on issues, no sane person sees him as a threat simply because he is a “socialist”.

Sanders has now suggested that he might run as an Independent candidate for President in 2016 if no one else in the Democratic Party is willing to promote what he believes in, suggesting Senator Elizabeth Warren as a potential nominee that he could support.

Sanders makes it clear that someone has to run on the issues of Wall Street control, the problem of growing poverty affecting the middle class, the crisis of global warming, and the need to protect Social Security and Medicare, all issues he has been in the forefront on, more than just about anyone else.

The danger of a potential independent candidacy by Sanders, which he admits is mostly unlikely, is that it would split the Democratic vote and help a right wing Republican to win the White House.

That was the effect of Ralph Nader in the Presidential Election of 2000, and the last thing we need is a Republican who will set progress backward ever further.

So while Bernie Sanders is appealing, it is hoped he will decide, ultimately, not to run, and if Elizabeth Warren runs and loses, that she will unite behind whoever is the Democratic nominee, even if seen as a comparative moderate, such as Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or Mark Warner.

Disllusionment With Washington Opens Up Possibility Of State Governors Again Having Advantage For Presidential Race!

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Much of the time in American history, there has been disillusionment with the Washington DC establishment, and a desire to have an “outsider” being our President.

Only three Presidents of the past century were elected directly from the Senate—Warren G. Harding, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama—while a total of six Governors or former Governors were elected to the Presidency—Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush. Additionally, former Governors who were Vice President first, and succeeded during the term—Theodore Roosevelt and Calvin Coolidge–were also elected to a full term.

So the present anger at Washington and everything it represents opens up new opportunities for sitting or former Governors in both parties, such as follows:

Democrats—Andrew Cuomo of New York, Martin O’Malley of Maryland, Deval Patrick of Massachusetts

Republicans-Chris Christie of New Jersey, Jeb Bush of Florida, Jon Huntsman of Utah, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, John Kasich of Ohio, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Rick Perry of Texas, Susana Martinez of New Mexico

Having said this, one still has to wonder if the Democratic Governors can overcome Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or Mark Warner or Elizabeth Warren or Amy Klobuchar or Cory Booker.

And one has to wonder if the Republican Governors can overcome Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum and others.

Des Moines Register Poll Of Iowa Democrats Prefers “Fresh Face” In 2016

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A Des Moines Register Poll of Democrats in Iowa shows that they prefer a “fresh face” for the Democratic nomination for President in 2016, over a more experienced candidate such as Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, who together have about 70 years in public governing service.

Since Iowa is the first state to have a say in the nominating process, this could encourage “newer” faces, such as Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York, Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, soon to be Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, to “throw their hat in the ring”, a term developed by former President Theodore Roosevelt, when he announced he was running again for President in 1912.

This blogger has suggested earlier that such a development might be good for the Democratic Party, particularly at a time when the Republican Party will have a much younger nominee than either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden.

The Case For A New Generation Of Democrats For The Presidential Election Of 2016!

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As the Presidential race begins, and it has started already, like it or not, it is clear that Hillary Clinton, who will be 69 in 2016, and Joe Biden, who will be 74 in 2016, are the frontrunners, and that Hillary is using up most of the oxygen in the room, way ahead of Biden in polls, with other potential Democratic candidates in single digits.

But despite the confidence and optimism about Hillary and even Joe as a backup, there is a growing case for the argument that the Democratic Party should bypass both Hillary and Joe, no matter how much one may love or admire either of them, and go for a new generation of Democrats, as was done in 1960 with John F. Kennedy, in 1976 with Jimmy Carter, in 1992 with Bill Clinton, and 2008 with Barack Obama!

All of these successful Democratic Presidential winners were young–43, 52, 46, and 47 respectively at the time of the inauguration. All were younger than their GOP opponents, although Richard Nixon was only four years older, but represented a continuation of Dwight D. Eisenhower, our oldest President at the time when he retired in 1961!

But Jimmy Carter was eleven years younger than Gerald Ford; Bill Clinton 22 years younger than George H. W. Bush; and Barack Obama 25 years younger than John McCain!

The fact is ONLY three Presidents were inaugurated at age 65 or older—William Henry Harrison at age 68 and dying a month later; James Buchanan at age 65 but only 50 days short of age 66, and rated by many historians the worst President in American history; and Ronald Reagan, inaugurated at just weeks before his 70th and 74th birthday, and judged by many to have deteriorated mentally, with early Alzheimers in his second term of office!

And we have seen Bob Dole defeated at age 73 in 1996; John McCain defeated at age 72 in 2008; and Mitt Romney, defeated at age 65 inn 2012, but also about 50 days short of age 66 if he had been inaugurated, the same exact age as Buchanan was when he won in 1856!

Meanwhile, the Republican Party future is clearly in the hands of young politicians, including Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and others, with these candidates being mostly in their 40s and 50s, and all younger than Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden!

Historically, in most elections, the younger candidate wins, and the party of the President usually does not do well if it utilizes someone connected with the administration leaving office, no matter what level of popularity reigns when that President leaves office, as witness:

Richard Nixon lost after Eisenhower
Hubert Humphrey lost after Lyndon B. Johnson
Gerald Ford lost after Richard Nixon
Walter Mondale lost after Jimmy Carter
Al Gore lost after Bill Clinton

If Hilary Clinton runs, she represents Obama’s foreign policy record, for good or for bad, and also brings back the good and the bad of the Presidency of her husband, Bill Clinton.

If Joe Biden runs, he represents what happens to a Vice President under a President, that the negatives of that President harm the Vice President, as with Nixon, Humphrey, Ford, Mondale, and Gore.

Only George H. W, Bush was able to overcome this hex, and succeed Ronald Reagan in 1988, although then losing reelection in 1992, the greatest percentage loss of any President in American history, except William Howard Taft in 1912!

It is reality that Democrats will be heavily favored in the Electoral College in 2016, no matter who runs, but it would be easier for a “New”, younger Democrat to be the Presidential nominee, such as Martin O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo, KIrsten Gilllibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Deval Patrick, Mark Warner, John Hickenlooper, or Elizabeth Warren, all of whom are much younger than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, with the exception of Warren, who would be 67 in 2016, which makes her a less ideal candidate based upon age!

It is important for Democrats to think carefully before they decide for a continuation of the Obama Presidency through Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, as nominating someone younger and separated from the Obama Administration would be preferable, and easier for the grueling campaign ahead!

The Democratic “Farm Team” Or “Bench” For National Office

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When one looks at the Democratic Party, most of the attention for the 2016 Presidential Election centers around Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, both exceptionally qualified and popular political figures, with tremendous experience in government.

But both Hillary and Joe are getting on in age, with Hillary to be 69 in 2016, and Joe to be 74 in 2016.

Either would face a much younger Republican opponent in 2016, so one has to wonder whether it might be preferable to go for “new blood” for the Democratic nominee.

If that was to occur, there would be a fantastic “farm team” or “bench” for the Democrats, including:

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
Future Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey
Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York
Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Senator Mark Warner of Virginia

This list of nine potential President candidates includes three women; two African Americans; and four white men, with seven states represented, and five US Senators and four Governors.

Any of these nine would be preferable, by far, to any Republican nominee for President, with many of the potential Republicans being horror stories, including Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Governor Rick Perry of Texas, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin.

Quinnipiac National University Poll Puts Hillary Clinton And Chris Christie Ahead In Popularity, And Elizabeth Warren A Surprising Third!

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Public opinion polls are endless, and often are believed to be a poor barometer of future political success, but they are fascinating as a moment in time in how those polled see political leaders and issues.

We are still in the first year of the Presidential term, but already there is speculation as to who has the advantage for the Presidential nominations for 2016, as well as interest in how politicians come across to the American people in general. In other words, which politicians are the “hottest” is part of many surveys.

So the latest Quinnipiac National University Poll puts New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ahead of all other politicians in the “hotness” question, with Christie somewhat surprisingly being ahead of Clinton in precise numbers, with Christie at 53.1 and Clinton at 52.1.

Right behind them are Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 49.2 in third place, and President Obama and New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand tied for fourth with 47.6.

Then comes Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, with 46.8; Senator Marco Rubio of Florida with 46.5; Vice President Joe Biden at 46.2; Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley with 45.7; and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal rounding out the top ten with 45.2.

Others further down include potential Presidential candidates, including Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky with 44.8; New York Governor Andrew Cuomo at 43.9; Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan with 43.0; Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker with 41.1; former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum with 40.7; former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 40.4; and Virginia Senator Mark Warner with 39.4.

If one is to take this poll seriously, that would put Chris Christie in a very good position for 2016, but the poll also indicates that his popularity is as high as it is because of independents and Democrats, and he ranks only eighth in this poll among fellow Republicans. How could Christie win the GOP nomination, by having to fight in Iowa’s caucuses and New Hampshire’s primary, where the right wing Republicans tend to win, and how could he carry enough delegate votes if he is well received by Democrats and Independents?

This poll also draws attention to two women other than Hillary Clinton, who could be other choices in replacement of her–Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand, both who rank ahead of Joe Biden, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, and Mark Warner, alternative Democratic possibilities. all male.

At this point, the poll is basically food for thought, as it is still much too far ahead to make a judgment as to what is likely to be the scenario for 2016 for the Presidential race. But certainly, it should, as it always is, be a fascinating series of events and personalities that will emerge over the next three years!

Strong Reaction Against Liz Cheney Bid For Wyoming Senate Seat

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Dick Cheney has become the most controversial, outspoken Vice President in American history, and his daughter, Fox News commentator Liz Cheney, is adding to that Cheney family image by her announced run for a Senate seat in the smallest populated state in America, Wyoming.

Liz Cheney, who has been a Virginia resident for years, but recently moved back to Wyoming, is seen by many there as a “carpetbagger”, who has moved back where she grew up only with the expressly clear cut reason to continue the Cheney tradition in American politics, knowing full well that she could not win a Virginia Senate seat, in strong hands with Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.

She is challenging a sitting Republican Senator, Mike Enzi, who has been a loyal conservative Republican in his voting, but is not as outspoken as other conservatives. Enzi, however, has had the “gall” to work occasionally with some fellow Senate Democrats on some legislation, and that makes him somehow regarded as not loyal enough to the conservative tradition.

Liz Cheney is ridiculing Enzi’s age of 69, while her father is older, and would not be alive without a heart transplant, which could have gone to a much younger person, rather than the 72 year old Cheney, but Cheney and his family have long felt entitled to whatever they want, and to speak their mind, no matter how divisive it might be!

Liz Cheney takes the view of her father, a no holds barred, confrontational, refusal to cooperate or compromise with the Obama Administration on ANYTHING! Just simply go on the attack and take no prisoners is the approach to what Liz Cheney wishes to do in the Senate, and if others are hurt in the process, so be it!

So we have seen former Wyoming Senator Alan Simpson; the other Wyoming Senator, John Barrasso; Wyoming’s only Congresswoman, Cynthia Lummis; Kansas Senator Jerry Moran; and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, all condemn the entry of Liz Cheney as bad for the Republican Party in Wyoming.

Moran and particularly, Paul, are Tea Party types, and it is clear that what Liz Cheney is doing is making bare the massive split in the Republican Party, not only in Wyoming, but nationally, as this is not just a personal battle for the Cheney family against the Republican Party in that state, but an example of the struggle between the neoconservatives who took America into two massive wars that we have not won, and the Rand Paul wing of the party that wants America out of foreign interventions. So Liz Cheney is declaring war on Rand Paul, and wishes, as her father does, to take away any strength he might have to win the GOP Presidential nomination in 2016 or beyond!

It is very clear that Liz Cheney has greater ambitions, and IF she wins the Senate seat in Wyoming in 2014, do not be surprised if she comes out of the gate as a quickly announced Presidential candidate, who would be supported by the neoconservatives who want us to intervene in Iran and Syria and Egypt, and have no problem with the use of military force all over the world, with the budget issue being unimportant!

And we can be sure that Liz Cheney would continue to back the “Birther” myth about Barack Obama, and continue to infer that Obama is a secret Muslim who is against what is good for America. She has no ethics or scruples, as she intends to be a dominant figure in the Republican Party future, and does not care to make friends among Democrats, and really has little regard for fellow Republicans of any stripe!

That is why the first goal must be the defeat of Liz Cheney’s grandiose ambitions in the Wyoming Republican Senate primary, but by causing a massive rift and split, it would be wonderful if the Democrats could win that seat, and hold it for a generation, as moderate Democrat Gale McGee did from 1959-1977.