Mark Warner

Virginia Republicans: Scandal, And Right Wing Extremism On Display

Ronald 3 Comments

The state of Virginia, the home of Presidents Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, W H Harrison, Tyler, and Wilson is in political crisis as the state faces not only political scandal of its Governor, Bob McDonnell, but also of its gubernatorial candidate to replace McDonnell, Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who makes McDonnell look “progressive” by comparison, due to his extreme right wing social views! This is not saying that McDonnell is less right wing, but less confrontational in his public statements than Cuccinelli!

McDonnell, who has Presidential ambitions, has been shown to have accepted major gifts from a corporation which does business with the Virginia state government, including large amounts of cash given to his wife and children. There are already calls for his resignation, and it seems likely that he will face criminal charges and the possibility of time in prison.

But Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli also has accepted gifts from the same corporation, although he denies any wrongdoing, just as much as McDonnell so declares! The fact of a denial means nothing, however, as that is standard for politicians of both parties who are accused of wrongdoing, and almost always are shown to be engaged in just that, wrongdoing!

Cuccinelli has also been extremely controversial with his anti gay, anti women, anti immigrant, anti science crusade, stronger in rhetoric and action than even Governor McDonnell!

This gubernatorial nominee has abused his power as Attorney General, and called for the criminalization of private sex acts between adults, along with doing everything he can to insure that ObamaCare is never instituted in the state of Virginia. He has also worked to intimidate all immigrants of Hispanic-Latino ancestry in Virginia. He has also campaigned against the promotion of environmental standards on global warming, declared war on science, and attempted to intimidate various state university faculty who promote such standards. And he is a leader in taking away the rights of women to their own reproductive lives!

To top it off, Cuccinelli’s running mate for Lieutenant Governor, an African American minister named E. W. Jackson, has made statements that make him seem even more extreme than Cuccinelli himself, Jackson has said that the Great Society programs of the 1960s under Lyndon B. Johnson were worse than slavery had been for African Americans! He also has declared that homosexuals and Planned Parenthood are worse than the Ku Klux Klan ever was, and that Barack Obama has Muslim tendencies!

These crazy lunatic statements have made the team of Cuccinelli and Jackson extremely right wing, and with the corruption surrounding both McDonnell and Cuccinelli as well, it has made Virginia a center of controversy and embarrassment that can only be ended by the hoped for victory of Democrat Terry McAuliffe, former head of the Democratic National Committee, who would be in the tradition of former Democratic Governors Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, who now grace the two Senate seats from Virginia!

The Courage Of Pro NRA Senators Who Voted For The Universal Background Checks Bill

Ronald 8 Comments

Attention has been paid to those Pro NRA Senators who refused to support the Universal Background Checks bill, and who now have suffered drops in public opinion polls in their states, including Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, Ohio Senator Rob Portman, Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, Nevada Senator Dean Heller, and New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte.

Not as much attention has been paid to the Senators of both parties who did not let their basically Pro NRA viewpoints stand in the way of common sense and reality.

These include:

Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania
Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania
Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico
Senator Joe Donnelly of Indiana
Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota
Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Senator Jon Tester of Montana
Senator Harry Reid of Nevada
Senator Mark Warner of Virginia

And shame on Democratic Senators Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Nick Begich of Alaska, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, and Max Baucus of Montana for voting against the Universal Background Checks, and a salute to Republican Senators John McCain of Arizona, Susan Collins of Maine, and Mark Kirk of Illinois, who joined Pat Toomey in support of the legislation!

Last Four Originally Elected Democratic Presidents Were Underdogs: Will That Happen Again In 2016?

Ronald 3 Comments

In the past half century, four Democratic nominees for President, all considered “underdogs”, were elected President.

John F. Kennedy was an underdog in 1960, being a Roman Catholic nominee, thought unlikely to be nominated or elected, but defeating Vice President Richard Nixon, who was far better known.

Jimmy Carter was an underdog in 1976, the first Southern nominee for President since Zachary Taylor in 1848, and really considered the longest of long shots to be the Democratic nominee, and yet won the Presidency over President Gerald Ford.

Bill Clinton was an underdog in 1992, considered part of the “second tier” of possible Democratic nominees for President, and thought to be “dead in the water”, due to the Gennifer Flowers sex scandal, but managing to be the “Comeback Kid”, and win the nomination and the election against President George H. W. Bush.

And Barack Obama was certainly considered an underdog to Hillary Clinton in 2008, and being African American, seemed a particularly “long shot” to go all the way to the Presidency, defeating Senator John McCain of Arizona.

All four Democratic winners all had youth–Kennedy at 43, Carter at 52, Clinton at 46, and Obama at 47 years of age. And get this–these four men were elected exactly SIXTEEN years apart–1960, 1976, 1992, and 2008!

Could this happen again?

Hillary Clinton is seen as the clear front runner, and Joe Biden is the second established “veteran” in the potential race for President in 2016.

But could it be that Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland, or Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York, or Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, or Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, or Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, or a future Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, or Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts would end up as a sudden surprise during the primaries and caucuses in 2016, and emerge the nominee and the winner of the Presidency?

Who can say, but the past COULD be an indicator of the future!

The Conservative Political Action Conference: A Bunch Of Retreads And Future Losers!

Ronald 10 Comments

Conservatives are in the third of four days of their annual Conservative Political Action Conference, and it is quite an event, a circus of retreads and future losers, who fail to see that the nation has rejected their ideology when it is presented to them in Senate races, and only holding on to power in the House of Representatives because of gerrymandered districts created by the Tea Party uprising of 2010, which led to a large number of Republican governors and state legislatures at the precisely correct time to affect the shaping of House districts for the ten year cycle following the census figures.

The Tea Party movement has had its heyday, and there are already signs of its future demise, although they will persist in some rural districts in the House, and have their Senators, including Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul, all ambitious to be President of the United States, but none of them should be delusional that they will actually be the next President, while they are all fighting to outdo each other three years ahead of 2016!

Attention at this conference is given to such retreads as Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, Paul Ryan, and Newt Gingrich.

Also, such losers as Wayne La Pierre, Grover Norquist and the usual right wing talk show hosts, including Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, are part of the “distinguished” speakers spewing forth their divisiveness.

And the conservatives are making clear that they will not budge in any form on the issue of gay rights, immigration reform,their “traditional” view of women being submissive to men, and refusal to separate science from the influence of religion!

There are differences on foreign policy between the libertarians and the neoconservatives, however, and any suggestion of moderation on ANY issue has led to Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell being denied an invitation to speak.

The ultimate reality is that it does not matter what happens at the CPAC, as it is like Don Quixote battling the windmill! The American people are NOT going to elect any of these “clowns”, even those who seem more “moderate”, such as Christie, to the White House in 2016. The Republicans are fighting a civil war, primarily over who shall represent them in 2016, but it is all for naught!

The next President will, assuredly, be a Democrat—whether Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo, Elizabeth Warren, Mark Warner, Amy Klobuchar or someone else not yet known!

Rand Paul Becomes A Potential Presidential Candidate, And That Is Good For Democrats!

Ronald 4 Comments

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has become a celebrity, due to his 13 hour filibuster, postponing consideration of John Brennan, a twenty five year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency, to become its head, The purpose of the filibuster was to gain a guarantee from the Obama Administration that drones would not be used on American soil against American non combatant citizens.

It has caused the American Civil Liberties Union to back Rand Paul, and some Democrats as well, including Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, as well as several progressive journals and web sites.

But the biggest manifestation has been the split developing in the Republican Party between the Tea Party Movement supporters (such as Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio) and the neocons (John McCain and Lindsey Graham, particularly), and this is great news for the Democratic Party!

Rand Paul is now being talked about more seriously as a potential Republican nominee for President, a thought that makes 2012 candidates for the nomination look as the beginning of a trend of continued disaster that will only become worse in 2016.

Bring on Rand Paul, and watch the GOP split asunder, and watch Rand Paul make Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Bob Dole, past GOP Presidential losers, appear brilliant by comparison! RIck Perry, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Herman Cain were all embarrassing and disastrous, but Rand Paul would be the most disastrous nominee in history!

If Rand Paul is nominated, and even if he divides the Republican Party while losing the nomination, he will only insure a massive popular vote victory by any Democratic nominee for President, particularly Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, but including others, such as Martin O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo, Elizabeth Warren, or Mark Warner!

Age Vs Youth: Will The Republicans And Democrats Be Switching On Their Presidential Nominees In 2016?

Ronald 2 Comments

When one analyzes the two major political parties in the past forty years, it has been a general reality that the Republican Party has run Presidential candidates who tend to be much older than the Democratic Party nominees for President.

Witness Richard Nixon, nine years older than George McGovern in 1972; Gerald Ford eleven years older than Jimmy Carter in 1976; Ronald Reagan thirteen years older than Jimmy Carter in 1980; Reagan seventeen years older than Walter Mondale in 1984; George H. W. Bush eight years older than Michael Dukakis in 1988; Bush twenty two years older than Bill Clinton in 1992; Bob Dole twenty three years older than Clinton in 1996; John McCain twenty five years older than Barack Obama in 2008; and Mitt Romney fourteen years older than Obama in 2012. Only in 2000 and 2004 did we see George W. Bush older than Al Gore by only two years and in 2004 actually younger than John Kerry by three years.

This phenomenon is maybe just a coincidence, but it has often been said that the Democrats go for youth and the Republicans for experience in their Presidential nominees.

Well, if that is the case, it is about to be switched dramatically in 2016 if one assumes that either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden are the likely front runners for the Democratic Presidential nomination, as Hillary will be 69 in 2016, and Joe will be 74 in 2016. Clinton would be the second oldest first time nominee, behind Ronald Reagan, and Biden would be the oldest first time nominee.

The Republicans are certain to nominate a candidate decades younger, such as Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, or Ted Cruz, all born in the early 1970s, being therefore mid 40s in 2016. If you consider Chris Christie, Scott Walker, or John Thune, they were born in the 1960s, so would be in the mid 50s. Jeb Bush, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann all were born in the 1950s, so would be in their late 50s or in the 60s. There is no candidate born in the 1940s seriously mentioned, unless one expects Newt Gingrich to try again for the Presidency, being just a year younger than Joe Biden and four years older than Hillary Clinton.

The Democrats have alternative possible candidates in Martin O’Malley and Amy Klobuchar born in the early 1960s, so either would be mid 50s in 2016, but Andrew Cuomo and Mark Warner, born in the mid 1950s would be nearing or at the age of 60 when running in 2016, and Elizabeth Warren, born in 1949, would be 67 in 2016, only about two years younger than Hillary Clinton.

So we are seeing a likely switch from an older to younger Republican nominee, and a younger to an older Democratic nominee, and the difference in years could be massive, as it was in the past forty years in most Presidential elections.

A final thought: In the nine elections between 1972 and 2012 when the GOP nominee was always older than the Democratic nominee, the Republicans won the election four times, and the Democrats five times, so basically, trying to determine whether age or youth are an advantage is clearly a pure guessing game!

The Likelihood Of Joe Biden Succeeding Barack Obama: Less Than 50%

Ronald 2 Comments

With the second term of President Barack Obama beginning, already the news media is speculating on the likelihood of Vice President Joe Biden running for President, and the odds that he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016, and become our next President.

Biden is certainly encouraging speculation, while saying he has not made up his mind. It is clear that he would like to run, but even he admits that the success or lack of success of the first two years of the second term of Obama, on top of his first term, will have a dramatic effect on his decision to run, and the odds of his having a good chance to become the 45th President of the United States.

Biden has a long record in public office, actually greater in number of years than any President of the United States having come to the Senate at the minimum age of 30, serving six terms (36 years), and now on his second term as Vice President, which, when he completes it, will mean he has served 44 years in national office.

Biden knows Washington DC like few know it. He also knows how to work with the opposition Republican Party in a manner unseen since Lyndon B. Johnson, although Johnson had a much more unorthodox approach to bargaining, and “wheeler dealing”, than the much more proper and mannerly Joe Biden.

But he also has a long list of gaffes, most not harmful, except to those who oppose him, and his liberal views have alienated major groups, as he has worked on issues highly controversial, including gun rights, women’s rights, gay rights, civil rights, foreign policy, Supreme Court nominees, and protection of the Great Society and New Deal programs, including the so called “entitlements”.

And his age, now 70, meaning he would be 74-78 in a first term, and 78-82 in a second term, is not a plus, as we only had one President beyond the age of 70, Ronald Reagan, who seemed to be in decline in his second term of office, finishing it at age 77 and about 49 weeks,

And there is the challenge of Hillary Clinton, whose public opinion ratings are higher than Biden’s, although there is much doubt that she will, ultimately, run for the Presidency. This author and blogger has already theorized, at the beginning of January, that Hillary will decide not to run. Her performance in testifying today at the Benghazi, Libya hearings of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will be crucial in any plans she might have, after a good rest and recovery period, to run for President in 2016.

And of course, there is the “younger” or “newer” generation of political leaders who have interest in running—including Governors Andrew Cuomo of New York and Martin O’Malley of Maryland, both taking strong leadership on gay marriage and gun regulations in their states; plus others, including Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and even possibly others, including Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado.

So the likelihood of Joe Biden running, while good, is not, automatically going to give him an edge in a field of many likely challengers. And of course, even if many Republicans like Joe Biden personally, it is certain, and obvious, that they are building up a long list of issues to use against the Vice President, should he end up as the Democratic nominee for President in 2016.

Gun Supporters Joe Scarborough, Harry Reid, Joe Manchin, Mark Warner Have Second Thoughts

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In a sign of potential significance, we have seen in the past two days that a number of gun supporters, backers of the Second Amendment, finally realize that something needs to be done to promote regulation in the public interest.

This includes MORNING JOE host Joe Scarborough of MSNBC, former Florida Republican Congressman; and three Democrats–Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Senator Mark Warner of Virginia.

But except for Scarborough, who has been out of office for a decade, the Republicans in Congress, particularly in the Senate, have remained silent, as has the leadership of the National Rifle Association, which makes too much money out of being in the leadership, to have the guts and the ethics and morality to recognize that they are wrong, and that there needs to be regulation to prevent future Sandy Hook Massacres.

So the Republican Party is again on the wrong side of another issue, and this just makes them move closer to extinction as a major party with a chance to hold national power in the White House and in the US Senate, and only able to keep the House of Representatives by gerrymandering of Republican state legislatures!

The State Of The Democratic Presidential Field As 2012 Ends

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This author has already, earlier today, made it clear that only four Republicans have any chance to be the Republican nominee in 2016, and, conceivably, to win the next Presidential election, although the odds against them are massive.

What about the Democratic field in a future election where the Democrats have a tremendous edge?

Realize that the likelihood of Barack Obama presiding over a greatly improved economy by 2016 will be a major boon to whoever is the party’s Presidential nominee.

So what is the state of the field?

There are three tiers of candidates, as things now stand.

First Tier—Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, both extremely qualified and experienced, and the best of friends, and if either or both become candidates, they will be the so called “800 pound gorillas” in the race, very hard to overcome. But, of course, if they challenge each other, they could weaken each other and help a third candidate to gain the edge, someone with less experience, and significantly younger, which might be an appealing factor.

Second Tier—Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, Virginia Senator Mark Warner, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren–with all four being strong alternatives, and with one of them possibly able to challenge the two leaders, Clinton and Biden, if they both choose to compete, If neither Clinton nor Biden ends up a candidate, which is conceivable, then these four could be involved in a major competition.

Third Tier—Mayor Cory Booker of Newark, if he becomes Governor or Senator from New Jersey; San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, if he becomes Governor or Senator from Texas; Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick; Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar; New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand; all potential candidates of minority or gender diversity, but all of them less likely to have the opportunity to run, based on others who are competing, and difficulty raising money and supporters against others who are much more described as “heavy weights”, but they all could be possible Vice Presidential running mates.

So this is an early judgment on the Presidential race, and needless to state, there will be much more analysis of these potential candidates as the Presidential race begins in earnest in the second half of 2013, after the first hundred days of the new term! There will be no lack of news emerging on a regular basis, and the fact that this author and others are discussing the race only 30 days after the last Presidential election demonstrates, yet again, that there is no respite from politics, or speculation about the Presidential office and its present and future occupants!

Future Potential Presidential Nomination Conflict In Several States For 2016

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It is never too early to think ahead about the Presidential Election of 2016, and as pundits start debating and arguing about potential candidacies for President, it turns out that several states could witness a battle for the nomination among their own office holders, as witness the following:

New York–Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Governor Andrew Cuomo, and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand–all Democrats

Florida—Former Governor Jeb Bush, Governor Rick Scott, and Senator Marco Rubio–all Republicans.

Virginia—Governor Bob McDonnell, Republican, and Senator Mark Warner, Democrat.

Massachusetts—Governor Deval Patrick and Senator Elizabeth Warren–both Democrats.

New Jersey—Governor Chris Christie, Republican, and Newark Mayor Cory Booker, Democrat,

Wisconsin—Governor Scott Walker and Congressman Paul Ryan–both Republicans.

Texas—Governor Rick Perry and Senator Ted Cruz–both Republicans, and Julian Castro Mayor of San Antonio, Democrat

The question is whether if Hillary Clinton ran for President, would Governor Cuomo or Senator Gillibrand challenge her? But also, if Governor Cuomo ran for President, in the absence of Clinton, would Senator Gillibrand also contend?

Also, if former Governor Jeb Bush ran, would Governor Scott or Senator Rubio do the same? Or it could be put another way–would Jeb Bush run if Senator Rubio announced for President, since he has already taken the first step toward running by visiting Iowa, the first caucus state in 2016?

Also, if either Governor Patrick or Senator Warren ran, would the other run?

Also, if either Governor Perry or Senator Cruz ran, would the other enter the race?

And if either Governor Walker or Congressman Ryan announced, would the other run?

The Virginia, New Jersey and Texas cases, with office holders of both parties possible nominees, is more likely to occur, although the odds of Cory Booker or Julian Castro running in New Jersey and Texas likely will be based on Booker defeating Chris Christie in next year’s gubernatorial race, and Castro running for statewide office and winning, such as for Governor or Senator in 2014.

The Virginia rivalry between Republican Governor Bob McDonnell and Democratic former Governor and now Senator Mark Warner is a more likely reality.

There certainly are a lot of possibilities emerging, with the political “junkies” having a feast of speculation!