Midterm Elections FIrst Presidential Term

Crucial House Races On Way To House Of Representatives Democratic Majority In 116th Congress

Ronald 4 Comments

It should be easy to gain the minimum 23 seats to put Democrats in charge of the House of Representatives in the upcoming 116th Congress.

The key reality is that there are New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Illinois, and California seats that seem likely to be switched.

There are suburban districts that traditionally vote Republican, but now are expected to vote Democratic, due to the outrage of women, and the fear that we will have a massive rise in prices due to the crazy tariffs Donald Trump has put upon products from China, as well as the European Union.

in the first midterm after a new President has been inaugurated, invariably the party in control of the White House loses a large number of seats, and often control of Congress.

This was true in 2010, 1946, 1994, 1974, and 1966, years when the party in power lost 63, 55, 54, 48, and 48 seats respectively, as well as losing 6, 12, 8, 4, and 4 seats in the US Senate.

Best bet is that the Democrats will gain 35-40 seats in the House, and have a shot at winning two seats from Republicans, and keeping all of their endangered Senators, particularly now with the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court controversy.

With the low public opinion ratings of Donald Trump, history tells us that the average in the first midterm of a new President sees 44 House seats and 5 Senate races lost.

Also, first term midterms, not considering public opinion ratings of the new President, see an average of 29 House and 3 Senate seats lost.

So considering all these factors, it seems that Democratic control of both houses of Congress seems likely in the 116th Congress.

Midterm Elections, Second Term, A Political Disaster From Woodrow Wilson To Barack Obama!

Ronald 1 Comment

The issue of midterm elections, second term of a President, has become one of great interest, as invariably, it weakens the President in his last two years, and inevitably, puts the opposition party in power.

This happened with Ronald Reagan in 1986, George W. Bush in 2006, and now, Barack Obama in 2014.

The second term midterm election also led to stronger opposition support in the time of Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1958, although the Democrats already had control of both houses, gained in the first term midterm elections of 1954.

In the time of Harry Truman, while his Democratic Party kept control in the second term midterm elections of 1950, his party lost 28 seats in the House and 5 in the US Senate, after having lost the first term midterm election and control of both houses to the Republicans in 1946.

In the time of Franklin D. Roosevelt, while his party continued to control both houses of Congress, the second term midterm election in 1938 saw weaker Democratic support than his first six years, with FDR actually gaining seats in the first term midterm election of 1934, the only time until 1998 under Bill Clinton.

In the time of Woodrow Wilson, the Democratic Party lost control of both houses in the second term midterm elections of 1918, just as Wilson was about to go to Versailles to negotiate the end of the First World War, and this insured that the Treaty of Versailles and League of Nations would be rejected by a Republican controlled Senate. Wilson had already suffered heavy losses in the first term midterm elections of 1914 in the House of Representatives, although not in the Senate.

The only modern President to avoid second term midterm doldrums was Bill Clinton, who still saw the opposition Republicans in control in 1998, but with the same balance in the Senate and a five seat gain by Clinton’s Democratic Party. However, Clinton and his party had suffered massive losses and control of both houses of Congress in his first term in 1994.