Midterm Elections Of 2014

The Republicans’ Last Stand For The Senate, 2014!

Ronald 1 Comment

The year 2014 is the last time that the Republicans have an opportunity to gain control of the US Senate, having lost it in 2006, and failing to regain it in 2008, 2010, and 2012.

Nate Silver believes that the GOP MIGHT gain control of six seats needed to make a majority, but does not predict more than that!

The reason for that is that the Democrats have to defend 21 seats, while the Republicans only have 15 seats to defend, all due to the good Democratic year of 2008, when Barack Obama helped to keep a Democratic majority in the Senate, at the time of his first election.

But in 2016, the Senate will have only 10 Democratic seats facing election, while the Republicans will have 24, and that guarantees that, even if the Republicans gain a slight majority and control in 2014, that they will lose it for sure in 2016, with a strong Democratic Presidential nominee and the Electoral College greatly favoring the Democrats for the White House.

But do not assume that the Democrats will actually lose six seats, and realize that ObamaCare will become a popular and positive move in the coming months, with over 6 million now covered by it, and many former critics, who had listened to GOP propaganda and right wing talk show hosts, realizing how good a plan it really is, and a true life saver for millions!

And If Barack Obama can have some luck and skill in foreign affairs over the next seven months, as with possible resolution of the Ukraine crisis with Russia, then all bets are off on the GOP gaining the Senate in 2014.

But again, even if they do, the GOP will NOT have control for more than two years, and 2016 will see a major Democratic resurgence in the upper chamber!

Nate Silver And Senate Predictions: Stop Panicking, Democrats!

Ronald 7 Comments

Nate Silver, formerly of the New York Times, and now running the website 538, is considered a genius on statistics, and his predictions were spot on in 2012.

Therefore, his new prediction that the Republican Party will win six seats and a total majority of 51 in the US Senate gets a lot of publicity.

YES, it is possible what Silver projects, BUT saying that a party will win six seats and have a bare majority of 51, means that if he is off by one, then the Democrats keep the majority.

Silver may be brilliant, but he is not perfect by any means, anymore than anyone, so for Democrats to panic based on what he says seven and a half months before the midterm elections, is ridiculous!

If anything, it should make the Democrats work ever harder, and back with pride what they stand for, as there is nothing to be ashamed of, in backing ObamaCare.

Better to go down in principle, than abandon one’s beliefs, is the best advice.

Besides, foreign policy crises may intervene, and can turn things around dramatically, as it did in 1962, when the Cuban Missile Crisis in October affected the midterms, preventing a major loss of seats by the Democrats, the party of John F. Kennedy, who looked great in that crisis! The Democrats gained three seats in the Senate, and only lost four seats in the House of Representatives!

So, as Yogi Berra said, “it ain’t over until it’s over!”

The Tea Party Movement At Five Years: What Has It Accomplished?

Ronald 8 Comments

The Tea Party Movement reached five years of age in the last few days, and the question is what has been accomplished?

The Tea Party Movement has led to the following:

Complete stalemate and gridlock in both houses of Congress.

The weakening of the power of the Speaker of the House John Boehner to the level it was in 1910 after the “House Revolution” against Speaker Joseph Cannon.

The loss of a potential Senate majority for the Republican Party twice, when it seemed possible.

The undermining of the American economy and America’s image in the world.

The promotion of racism, misogyny, nativism, and hate and confrontation.

The undermining of national government in favor of sectionalism and secession.

The growing inability of President Obama to gain any kind of cooperation from the opposition party, unseen since the time of Andrew Johnson.

The loss of any reasonable civility between the leaders of the Republican Party and the President of the opposition party.

The growing split between the two major political parties in a manner unseen since the Civil War-Reconstruction Era 150 years ago.

The growing personal threats of assassination against President Obama, unseen at this level since the time of Abraham Lincoln.

But there are signs that the American people have had it with the Tea Party Movement in the Congress and in the state governments.

This is a clear cut warning for those promoting this divisiveness and anarchy, that the time for return to civility has arrived, and that if those in government now refuse to see the handwriting on the wall, then they will be repudiated in 2014 and 2016!

What If The US Senate Goes Republican In 2014? What Would Be The Effects?

Ronald 7 Comments

The battle for the majority control of the US Senate is in full swing, with the Republicans needing to pick up six seats in order to gain control in the MIdterm Elections of 2014.

The odds are seen as good, IF the establishment Republicans coming up for reelection are able to hold off the Tea Party challengers they face in primaries.

The Democrats are on the defensive, since about two thirds of the seats up in 2014 are Democratic, and particularly in the South, the small number of Senate Democrats from that section are under assault.

This blogger will examine the Senate races over time, but right now, the key issue is the effect IF the Senate goes Republican.

The likely scenario would be the following:

The Senate would work against any immigration reform.

The Senate would block any attempt at any gun regulation

The Senate would be likely to attempt a block of any Supreme Court nominees of President Obama, and probably battle more than ever over any judicial appointments at the lower levels of the courts, along with clear opposition to Presidential appointments to the cabinet or other key positions.

The Senate would probably help to encourage a Republican House of Representatives to draw up charges of impeachment against President Obama, but would be unable to gain a two thirds vote in the chamber, to convict and remove him from office.

Senate attempts to override Presidential vetoes would become more common, but the President would continue to have the advantage in that regard, as gaining a two thirds override is highly unlikely.

Overall, more gridlock and stalemate would occur, and more disillusionment with our national government would grow, and cause a likely return to Democratic control of the Senate in 2016, when Hillary Clinton or any other Democratic nominee wins the White House!

Ted Cruz’s War On Senate Establishment Republicans

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Senator Ted Cruz of Texas is a literal bull in a china shop, declaring war on the Republican establishment in the US Senate, and having no apologies for it.

Without a doubt, Cruz has become the most dangerous internal threat to the Republican Party since Joseph McCarthy six decades ago, ironically a villain that he resembles in appearance to the point of making one wonder if they are related, although McCarthy was Irish and Cruz is Cuban!

Cruz is working with Tea Party extremists who are attempting to defeat in primaries the following veteran Senators:

Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
John Cornyn of Texas
Pat Roberts of Kansas
Thad Cochran of Mississippi
Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
Also to elect a Tea Party Congressman to replace retiring Senator Saxby Chambliss

This action by Cruz has rattled the GOP establishment, and could cause the defeat of many of these Senators in primaries, or so alienate voters as to elect Democrats.

But Ted Cruz is unconcerned, as he rampages for his own ambitions, including being the Republican nominee for President in 2016, which according to polls is highly unlikely, and if nominated, would lead to a landslide defeat against Hillary Clinton or any other Democratic nominee for the White House!

Cruz is encouraged along by his whacko extremist Christian pastor father, who makes his son seem moderate by comparison, but Ted Cruz is not interested in being moderate in any form. and is the greatest threat to civility in politics in many years!

Climate Change And Republican Influence On Congressional Committees: James Inhofe And Louie Gohmert!

Ronald 8 Comments

The battle for the control of both houses of Congress in 2014 is more than just an issue of which party, and which politicians, win.

It is a battle for the future of the reaction to climate change as well!

In the US Senate, Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe, heads the Republican minority on the Environment and Public Works Committee, and has been the biggest denier of climate change, ridiculing former Vice President Al Gore and others, who have warned of the dangers of global warming and climate change. Were the Republicans to win the majority of the Senate, his influence would grow, just as he becomes age 80 by the end of the year. Do we really want a scenario where a man who has a short life span, based on his age, determines our future on climate change?

In the House of Representatives, Texas Congressman Louie Gohmert, a Tea Party member, and considered one of the most moronic members of the Republican Party, on the level of Steve King of Iowa and Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, is third in seniority on the Natural Resources Committee, but due to retirement of the chair of the committee, is due to take over as Chair IF the GOP wins the majority of the House again, which is seen as likely.

Imagine these two climate deniers, both infuriating in so many ways, standing in the way of dealing with our environmental problems?

This is one of the most important issues to consider when analyzing the upcoming midterm elections, as it represents an “ostrich with its head in the sand,” refusing to deal with reality, in a way that can harm America and the world long term!

Will John Boehner Be Removed From Speakership Before End Of 2014? Highly Unlikely!

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The courage and guts of Speaker John Boehner, in finally rejecting the Tea Party whackos in his caucus, and moving ahead to insure that the debt limit issue be taken off the table until March of 2015, could lead to his being deposed as House Speaker before this year is over!

It seems likely that Boehner will NOT be able to remain as Speaker after this year at the most, and he might, very well, decide to quit Congress in disgust at the end of this term.

But IF Boehner is forced out before the midterm elections, it would be likely that the GOP will lose control of the House, as unlikely as that seems to most political observers at the moment.

Never has a Speaker been forced out during his tenure, with the closest example being the stripping of much of the power of Speaker Joseph Cannon in the famous “Revolution of 1910” in October of that year, with the election for the House a month later, and the opposition Democrats winning the House and installing Champ Clark as the new Speaker in 1911-1912!

In any case, GOP disarray can only help the Democrats, and with Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, forcing by his filibuster tactics, that Mitch McConnell, the Minority Leader, had to vote for the extension of the debt limit, makes his Tea Party challenger in Kentucky have a greater chance of defeating McConnell, setting up a whacko against the Democratic nominee for the Senate, Alison Lundergan Grimes, and making the likelihood of the continuation of a Democratic Senate much more likely!

Speaker John Boehner Finally Shows “Cojones” Against Tea Party!

Ronald 5 Comments

Speaker of the House John Boehner FINALLY has shown “cojones” against the extremist Tea Party movement and other right wing whackos in his caucus, who are anarchistic and reckless.

He overcame the “Hastert Rule”, started by previous GOP Speaker Dennis Hastert, that no bill would come up for a vote unless there was a majority of Republicans behind it.

Having already abandoned this rule a few times, Boehner took a major step yesterday when he allowed a “clean” vote on the debt limit being taken off the table as a decisive issue until March 15, 2015, insuring economic stability and growth over the next year by that action!

By a vote of 221-201, with 193 Democrats and 28 Republicans, the debt limit increase passed, but many committee chairs and Paul Ryan, Budget Committee Chair, voted NO, and it made it on the record that 199 Republicans were willing to have the government go into default, something that should harm them in the midterm elections coming up in November. Interestingly, other members of the House leadership, including Eric Cantor, the heir apparent, and Kevin McCarthy, and Darrell Issa, voted with Boehner and the 28 Republicans who voted for the debt limit extension.

Boehner may end up leaving Congress, or at least, losing the Speakership if he stays and his party keeps control, but yesterday was a profile in courage FINALLY!

And if, by some chance, Texas Senator Ted Cruz tries to block the debt limit extension by calling for a 60 vote majority to consider it, and if five Republicans cannot be found, then Harry Reid, the Majority Leader, has threatened to use the “nuclear option”, allowing for all votes in the Senate to be based on a 51 vote majority, destroying the filibuster, and then a flow of legislation has a chance to get through the Senate!

The time of the Tea Party Movement dominance over Congress MAY have come to an end, and not too soon!

The Economy Improving Greatly, But Obama Gets Little Credit For It!

Ronald 1 Comment

The American economy is rapidly growing and improving, and the future is bright, except for the problem of unemployment. The auto industry is booming, as Obama saved the industry by giving them assistance in 2009-2010, and the expansion of the economy has also been benefited by three to four percent growth in the past two economic quarters. But one would get the impression that Barack Obama deserves no credit, when he deserves most of the credit for the improvements!

There is still the issue of refusal of the GOP House of Representatives to promote infrastructure spending, to raise the minimum wage to the level of inflation over the years, to continue the assistance to long term unemployed to avoid starvation and homelessness, and the need to push for education, as the future for the young, with proof that the more educated one is, the much lower the unemployment rate really is, and will continue to be. Also, lowering the debt for college students and graduates, as much as there are subsidies for corporations, would be a massive move in the right direction.

That is why it is essential for an end to the deadlock in the nation’s capital, and for action to be taken, but if not, the urgency of a Democratic Congress majority in both houses in November’s midterm elections is apparent!

Senate Republican Conservatives In Danger From Tea Party Right Wingers!

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The Republican Party knows it must gain six seats in the Senate to gain a majority, but as things stand, they are in danger from Tea Party right wingers, who might defeat them in primaries this year, and then could lose safe seats to the Democrats!

This includes Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky; Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi; Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina; Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee; Senator John Cornyn of Texas; as well as open Republican Senate seats (due to retirements) in Georgia and Nebraska.

The wackiest candidates against these Senators are Matt Bevin in Kentucky; Lee Bright in South Carolina; and Steve Stockman in Texas. But also, three Georgia Senate competitors in Georgia are all wacky—Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, and Jack Kingston, all sitting Georgia House members, with the only good thing is that two will be eliminated from Congress by running in the Senate primary.

So in theory, instead of gaining six seats, the GOP could lose up to seven seats if the Tea Party succeeds in defeating solid conservative Republican Senators, or in the case of Nebraska and Georgia, solid conservatives who are retiring.