Midterm Elections Of 2014

The Crucial Importance Of A Democratic Senate And President For The Future

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The battle for Democratic control of the House of Representatives, the need to gain 17 seats, is a bitter one, with right wing groups spending millions to make sure that the Republicans keep control, and prevent any furthering of the Barack Obama agenda.

Due to the reality of gerrymandered districts, created by Republican legislatures and governors, as a result of the 2010 midterm elections, the concept of majority rule has been distorted, with Democrats winning more total votes nationally in Congressional races, but Republicans able to win a majority of seats, and oppose everything Obama wants, and cause a shutdown of the government in October.

Due to the extremism of the Republican House as a result of the “hostage” situation created by the Tea Party Movement, the 2013 session of the Congress has been the worst since records were kept in 1947, but now the “establishment” Republicans are declaring war on the Tea Party right wingers, and trying to insure that the mainstream conservatives, led by Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, will be able to control the future.

At the same time, right wing pressure groups are trying to defeat a group of conservatives in House and Senate primaries, so the civil war may give Democrats the opportunity to gain enough seats to make Nancy Pelosi Speaker again in the 114th Congress of 2015-2016. That would allow the budgetary power of the House Ways and Means Committee to be back in Democratic hands, giving them the opportunity to reverse regressive policies perpetrated by Republicans since 2011.

But even more important is the keeping of a Democratic Senate majority, with the ability to get appointments of the President confirmed by a majority, rather than needing 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. This is particularly important for federal district and circuit court nominees, and for the eventual approval of Supreme Court nominees on the aging Court.

Part of this is also the need to have a Democratic President after 2016, as that reality, plus a Democratic Senate, would guarantee that social conservatism would lose out on such issues, as abortion, gay marriage, civil liberties, civil rights, and so many other issues that are crucial to the long range future of making America a nation of fairness, justice, equality, and tolerance!

Virginia State Leaders All Democrats For First Time Since 1969 State Election: Harbinger Of Future In South!

Ronald 6 Comments

It is now official. Virginia has the first all “blue” state government, with the top three state officials–Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General being Democrats–since the 1969 state election, 34 years ago!

And the state has gone Democratic twice for Barack Obama, and its two US Senators are Democrats.

With the northern Virginia suburbs going Democratic, and the seat of Republican Congressman Frank Wolf, a moderate Republican now open in 2014, due to the retirement of Wolf after 34 years, it is clear that Virginia is becoming more clearly “blue”, a harbinger for the South, as the Hispanic-Latino population continues to grow.

Over the next few years, we will see more of this growing trend toward “blue” in the South, with Georgia next, and soon after Texas, and once that happens, the chances of the Republican Party winning Presidential elections, the ability to win the Electoral College, will be a dim memory, particularly with the growing right wing trend of the GOP.

The Republican Party is committing suicide before our eyes, and if the Tea Party succeeds in defeating sitting traditional conservative Republicans in primaries in 2014, the acceleration toward “blue” will multiply!

PS A correction needs to be made. All three state officials plus the two US Senators are Democrats for first time since 1969, but in 1989 the Democrats won all three statewide elections for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General, and had one Senator (Chuck Robb), while the other Senator was John Warner, a Republican. Just wish to clarify this matter and I thank Engineer of Knowledge for making me aware of the need to modify this entry!

Lowest Unemployment Rate In Five Years: A Big Plus For The Democrats In 2014 Midterm Elections!

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There has been steady growth of employment over the past four and a half years, and the new employment report shows that the unemployment rate, now 7 percent, is at its lowest in five years! Over 203,000 jobs were created, more than was expected. This is bound to help the Democrats in the 2014 midterm elections coming up next November.

This is great news, although there is much to do for those still unemployed, and for those with minimum wages in an economy where the remnants of the Great Recession still lurk.

It is essential that public works jobs be created to rebuild the infrastructure of this nation, and that the minimum wage be raised, so that it is worth at least what it was thirty years ago, now down by more than 30 percent in purchasing power.

But since almost one third of all minimum wage workers are parents, and there are so many single mothers with children who work at such places, and including Walmart and McDonalds and other such establishments, it is unconscionable to have these workers have to depend on food stamps and Medicaid, when their companies should be responsible for a living wage. Taxpayers are paying the price, when it would be better that consumers possibly pay more at these companies, but the workers know their employers care about them and their ability to survive!

And the argument that raising the minimum wage will cut jobs is pure bull, as that has not happened in the past!

And if consumers must pay a dollar more for fast food, or items at Walmart or McDonalds, so be it, as everyone, no matter what his or her station in life, is entitled to a living wage, and human dignity and respect!

Could The Problems With ObamaCare Hurt The Democrats In Midterm Elections In 2014?

Ronald 8 Comments

The massive problems with the roll out of ObamaCare could hurt the Democrats in midterm elections coming up in November 2014.

The Republicans, by their shutting down of the government, were on the defensive, but now the unbelievable troubles with ObamaCare seem to be wiping out the edge that the Democrats had just two months ago.

It is clear that the American population is changing its views on government and major issues, based on each new controversy which arises, and that anything could happen eleven months from now.

It is also evident that IF the American people could defeat all incumbents, they would do so, and that many, at least in theory, would like a new political party.

But the American system of government is such that the reality of defeating incumbents is very difficult, and only a small percentage will be defeated next year. At the same time, having new political parties that can compete for power and influence is nearly impossible, as our party system, with its ups and its downs, has not changed in 160 years when 2014 arrives next month.

We are in a very difficult period politically, and trying to predict the outcome of the midterm elections, and even the Presidential race of 2016, has become ever more something one would not wish to bet on!

The Republican Party Crisis: Does It Have A Future, Or Is It To Go Into The Dustbin Of History?

Ronald 4 Comments

As we enter the year 2013 in two days, the long term future of the Republican Party as a legitimate long term alternative to the Democratic Party is in dire threat of disappearing into the dustbin of history!

The Republican Party lost the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2012 in a sound repudiation, with Barack Obama soundly defeating Mitt Romney. The US Senate, with 23 of 33 seats up for election being Democratic seats, and expected to lose some seats, ended up winning 25 of the seats, gaining three seats and only losing Nebraska to the Republicans. The US House of Representatives, while remaining in Republican hands, saw a gain of ten House seats by the Democrats. If it was not for gerrymandering by many Republican state legislatures, the Democrats would have gained control, as they won more total votes nationally in House races than the Republicans.

So the GOP really was walloped, and yet the party seems unable to accept what happened, and have allowed themselves to be hijacked by extremist groups, including the Tea Party Movement, Americans For Tax Reform, right wing talk show hosts on radio and Fox News Channel, the National Rifle Association,The Koch Brothers and other millionaires and billionaires, right wing preachers, and anti immigrant nativists and anti women’s rights elements, therefore resisting the need to move back from the extreme right to the moderate center, where the party had many victories over the years as a more mainstream conservative alternative to the Democratic Party.

It is now a moment of reckoning, as the Republican Party is about to implode, as public opinion polls make clear that the party will be blamed if America goes off the “fiscal cliff”, and taxes go up on everyone, and ruthless spending cuts, which hurt the most needy and disadvantaged in our society, occur!

There is a possibility that the Republican Party will go into the dustbin of history, if they do not reform in time for the midterm elections of 2014, which could, ironically, lead to the demise of the party on its 160th anniversary, having been founded as a reform oriented party in 1854, replacing the Whig Party!

John Boehner and Mitch McConnell have a major burden to deal with as the New Year begins, and their own personal futures, as well as that of their party, is meeting the challenge of becoming what they once were, a mainstream centrist party that can appeal to the changing demographics of America, or be replaced by a modern day Whig Party, with statesmen and leaders on the model of Henry Clay and Daniel Webster, and former Whigs who started the Republican Party, such as Abraham Lincoln!

The Reality Of The Next Decade: Split Government Control!

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It is now clear that our political system is facing a long period, probably at least a decade, of split government control on the national level!

The Democratic Party has a long term edge with the electorate, as a result of the two Barack Obama Presidential victories, with the only difference being the loss in 2012 of Indiana and North Carolina.

But with the growing Hispanic and Latino population in Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, the likelihood of those states turning “blue’ from “red” over this decade, is becoming more likely, and with that manifestation, the Electoral College situation will become much more one sided than it is now, and yet still allow for some states to wander over to the other side without affecting a Democratic victory for the White House.

Additionally, with the surprise gain in seats by the Democrats in the US Senate, only losing one state, Nebraska, and gaining Maine, Massachusetts, and Indiana in return, and more Republican seats up for reelection in 2014, the likelihood of the Senate staying majority Democratic for the long term, continues to grow.

However, with the gerrymandering of seats by Republican legislatures and Governors in 2010, even though the Democrats won more votes for the US House of Representatives, the Republicans were able to hold on to the majority, although reduced by about eight seats. The Democrats will have trouble gaining 17 seats or more because of the gerrymandering, and even if they do gain a slight edge, could easily lose it two or four years after winning the majority.

So the likelihood of a Democratic President, Democratic Senate, and a Republican House becomes more a normal situation until at least the next reapportionment of seats after the 2020 Census, and the Presidential and Congressional Elections of that year, but with the advantage that 2020 is a Presidential year, while 2010 was not.

So this means the odds of a long range stalemate and gridlock in American politics are clear cut!