Midwest

Personality DOES Matter: Why Chris Christie Will Never Be President!

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New Jersey Governor Chris Christie may be described as the most centrist Republican Presidential candidate, and also as one of the “Establishment” Republican Presidential contenders, which includes Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney.

But we have NEVER had a person as confrontational, as rude, as bullyish, as loudmouth, as obnoxious, as Chris Christie has been with ordinary New Jersey citizens who dare to challenge or question him!

Can one imagine such a person as President, speaking to foreign leaders, directly or indirectly, in such a undiplomatic manner? We would have World War EIGHT, as he would inspire wars just with his dripping sarcasm and lack of tact!

It might be entertaining to some in New Jersey that Christie is such a character, and we have seen staff and supporters around him who laugh heartily when he goes after a tax payer, a parent, a critic, but there is nothing laughable about such behavior!

We have never had a President with such a personality, and have never had a nominee with such a personality, and we are not about to witness that happening!

Chris Christie, if he enters the Presidential fray, will be repudiated in the Iowa Caucus in January of next year, not only for his comparative moderation on issues and views, but also on his brusque personality, which does not wear well in the Midwest, a comparatively low key, friendly environment of people who are laid back in nature, and do not like rudeness or nastiness. And New Hampshire citizens in their primary, and New Englanders, will also not take well to Chris Christie’s New Jersey “in your face” mannerisms and speech!

So the best suggestion for Chris Christie: Stay out of the Republican Presidential race, and avoid embarrassing yourself, and being soundly repudiated1

The Complete Reversal Of American Politics: Republicans In The South, Democrats In Large Populated Northeastern, Midwestern And Western States!

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The defeat of Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu on Saturday marks the complete reversal of American politics from the years 1877 to the present.

After the Reconstruction of the South ended, with Union Army troops leaving, twelve years after the Civil War, the South became an area totally dominated by Democrats, resentful of the Republican Party, Abraham Lincoln, the Civil War defeat, and the passage of Amendments 13, 14, and 15, ending slavery, making blacks citizens, and giving the men the right to vote.

The South went into massive resistance, creating Jim Crow segregation to replace slavery, and until the election of Herbert Hoover in 1928 and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, it was always a solid Democratic South with no black voting, due to discriminatory state laws that were ignored by generations of the federal government. Hoover won much of the South due to his Catholic opponent, Alfred E. Smith, in 1928, and Eisenhower won over Adlai Stevenson twice in the 1950s due to his personal popularity and World War II D Day reputation.

But only when the Civil Rights Movement was in full swing, starting in the 1950s, and reaching its peak with the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 under Lyndon B. Johnson, did we see the beginning of a mass exodus of office holders and ordinary white population, to the Republican Party, starting with Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina in 1964, switching parties to back Republican Senator Barry Goldwater against President Lyndon B. Johnson.

As the Democrats started to lose power in the South, the nomination of Southern governors Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and the rise of “New South” Governors like them and others in the Democratic Party, slowed up the switch to the GOP.

But the election of Barack Obama, considered anathema in the South, has now led to the entire wiping out of Southern Democrats in Congress, except for black and Jewish members of the House in districts gerrymandered that give the Republicans more total Congressional and state legislative seats in the South. Only a few other white non jewish members of the House remain, and they are endangered in the political climate of the South in 2014.

Only Virginia has both its Senators and Governor (Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Terry McAuliffe) as Democrats, and only Florida has one other Democratic Senator, Bill Nelson at this point, as we enter 2015.

And both Virginia and Florida have Republican dominated legislatures, as well as the other states that made up the Confederate States of America.

And, of course, Florida includes the heavily Northern South Florida, and Virginia has the heavily Northern North Virginia, influenced by being part of the DC suburbs, and otherwise, these three Senators and one Governor would not be in public office.

So the complete reversal of a century and a half ago has occurred, and is unlikely to be changed for a generation or more, at the least.

This means that the South will remain as it is now for a generation or more, and that the issue of race nearly a century and a half ago, again stands out as the key difference that separates that section from the rest of the country.

Meanwhile, the heavily populated areas of the nation in the Northeast, Midwest and West are more Democratic than ever, and are unlikely to change either over time, creating political deadlock long term over the future, stifling change and creating constant political conflict and deadlock!

Ohio The Crucial State In Presidential Elections Since 1964! Republicans, Be Aware Of That Reality!

Ronald 1 Comment

Ohio, the “Buckeye” state, is the crucial state in Presidential elections since 1964, with the winner in Ohio going on to win the election, and reside in the White House!

This makes it essential for the Republican Party to take this into consideration, and to nominate an Ohioan for the Presidency in 2016. It also makes it essential for Democrats to fight tooth and nail to win this state, although they could win the Electoral College without Ohio.

A recent assessment of the Electoral College theorizes that the Democrats may have the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency in 2016, as the so called “blue” states add up to 257 electoral votes, including all of New England and the Northeast, down to the District of Columbia; the Midwest states of Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota; and the Western states of California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, and Hawaii. Add Virginia and its 13 electoral votes, and the fact that the state has gone “blue” in Senate and gubernatorial elections recently, and is influenced by the power of the Northern Virginia (DC suburbs) population, and you have the precise number of electoral votes needed.

But of course, the desire is not to barely win, so Ohio is crucial for Democrats, but also Republicans!

This author has said before that, therefore, the best choice for the GOP Presidential nomination is either Governor John Kasich or Senator Rob Portman, more than any others, but not even certain that either will run for the Presidency, or do well in the caucuses and primaries, starting in January 2016!

Kasich has accepted Medicaid funding for the poor in his state, and Portman has backed gay marriage after his son came out as gay, and these factors hurt both with the Tea Party base in the Republican Party.

On the other hand, Kasich has a long record of Congressional service in the past, and headed the House Budget Committee in the 1990s; and Portman was Budget Director under President George W. Bush.

Both are mild mannered, not the type to make outrageous or ridiculous or extremist statements, and both seem competent to serve as President, more than most of the other potential alternatives.

The GOP National Convention will be in Cleveland, and there is a good chance of the Democratic National Convention being in Columbus, so Ohio moves to the forefront as a major battleground for 2016, which should not be ignored by either party, but particularly the Republicans!

Realize that six Ohio Republicans went on to become President from 1868-1923—Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, James A. Garfield, William McKinley, William Howard Taft, and Warren G. Harding!

Will the GOP be smart enough to do the right thing? Don’t bet on it!

The California Drought A Tragedy For The Nation!

Ronald 3 Comments

Climate change and global warming is becoming a crisis for America’s economic future, and particularly in California, where one out of every eight Americans reside.

The drought going on in California is historic, and it will affect agriculture directly, but also the entire economy not just of the Golden State, but of the nation at large.

Shortages of fruits and vegetables will dramatically raise the cost of living, and these are foods that are so important for the health of all human beings.

Jobs will be lost as the parched earth of California continues to multiply, and water supplies are rapidly dwindling, and water is a basic of all sustenance.

Santa Ana winds and generally high dry heat conditions otherwise lead to massive fires that destroy much of the forested areas and threaten homes and lives.

And while the center of attention is California, the same situation affects the western half of the nation, from the Midwest to the Great Plains to the Southwest and the Pacific Northwest.

There are no easy answers as to how to address this crisis, but political stalemate on the environment insures long range damage that will harm America, its economy, and long range well being!

The Desperate Need For Infrastructure Spending, And NOW!

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America’s public works—its roads, highways, bridges, tunnels, canals, public buildings, beaches, parks, water supply, electric grids—are in desperate need of repair and expansion, with many of these public works being more than a century old, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest.

But Republicans in Congress refuse to reauthorize infrastructure spending, as part of their unwillingness to work with President Barack Obama on ANYTHING, no desire to cooperate for the nation’s benefit!

This will lead to disasters when bridges and roads and other public facilities suddenly collapse, and will cause great delays in traffic and services, costing billions upon billions of spending on emergency repairs, and causing waste of gasoline, and greater levels of environmental pollution as a result.

It will also cause the loss of an estimated 700,000 jobs over the next year, and it will deny millions of unemployed people the opportunity to compete for necessary jobs rebuilding and improving our public works structure.

This is unconscionable, and should lead to citizens waking up to the total GOP obstructionism, and defeat the party’s candidates in elections this fall, but will it? That is the question that awaits an answer in November’s midterm elections!

Barack Obama Totally Correct: GOP Will NEVER Win Presidency Again Unless They Return To Political Center!

Ronald 2 Comments

President Barack Obama has made a statement that cannot be contradicted!

IF the Republican Party moves away, at some point, from the extremist right wing of the Tea Party Movement, and the influence of the old Southern Democratic racists turned Republicans because of the Civil Rights Act of fifty years ago, then they have the opportunity, and even likelihood, of eventually regaining the White House!

But if they insist on alienating women, African Americans, Latino and Asian American citizens and immigrants, labor, gays and lesbians, environmentalists, those who believe in science over religion, poor people, the middle class, educated people, and those who believe government is good rather than evil, then they will, Obama says, NEVER win the Presidency again.

The nation is turning “Blue” over time in Texas, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, and already much of the Midwest has become more definitely “Blue”, as well as Florida and Virginia.

So, as Obama states, it is all up to the Republican Party! Moderate your right wing extremism, or your party is in the dustbin of history, as America is not a mean spirited, racist, nativist nation, just many of those who choose to call themselves Republicans.

The Supreme Court Has Gone Too Far!

Ronald 7 Comments

The majority Republican Supreme Court, an unelected body that acts often as if they are outside of any concern about public opinion, has simply gone too far, in ruling that a corporation is not only a person, and therefore unlimited corporate donations are permitted, but also a corporation can limit access to birth control and contraception on its health care plan, based on the “Christian” values of its owners!

Also, the Court has worked to weaken public labor unions, and set out to undermine voting rights in the South and Midwest, leading to mass violations of voting rights, and new voter limitations for poor people.

This Court has gone amuck, demonstrating that it is involved in a war on woman, labor, blacks, and immigrants, all while being extremely pro corporation and pro religion, when we have separation of church and state as part of our basic constitutional beliefs!

The Court majority is promoting a religious oligarchy of powerful, wealthy corporate leaders, and this will motivate women, workers, blacks, immigrant groups, environmentalists and people of both genders who care about social justice and equality to become politically active and vote in November!

If the people do not react, they will get what they deserve–a government of, by and for the top one percent!

The Senate must remain Democratic for future Court appointments, and the Presidency must stay in the hands of the Democrats, in order to prevent conservative activist nominees in the future, such as Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito represent.

It is likely there will be three to four nominees for the high Court by 2020, so Democrats must have control, but to do that, the people must react to these outrages of the Supreme Court!

The Argument For A Midwestern Governor For The Republican Party In 2016 Presidential Race!

Ronald 2 Comments

There is a growing feeling in the Republican Party, and among prognosticators, that the pool of GOP candidates for President in 2016 is lacking in so many ways.

Chris Christie is in trouble due to the scandal over the George Washington Bridge, and his handling of Hurricane Sandy money.

Scott Walker is in trouble over charges that he was involved in corruption during the 2012 recall campaign in Wisconsin.

Ted Cruz has made enemies every time he opens his mouth, and his push to close down the government in 2013 backfired, and caused division within Republican ranks.

Rand Paul is leading a fight against the “Establishment”, and is unlikely to be able to win support to be the nominee, with his libertarian and isolationist views.

Marco Rubio made enemies with his immigration reform plan, and is seen as having floundered ever since.

Paul Ryan has come across as someone who has no understanding of what middle class people go through, and with little compassion for the poor, and even fellow Catholics are often critical of him.

Bobby Jindal has come across as insincere, uncaring about his own constituents, and has lost whatever luster he once had.

Rick Perry may have gained classy glasses to wear, but he is still a horrible candidate in so many ways.

Rick Santorum is trying to reform his image as well, but he is still a former Senator who lost his seat ten years ago.

Mike Huckabee is an also ran from the 2008 Presidential campaign, and has sounded more looney than ever each month as his Fox News Channel show pushed him much further right than he had been in 2008, when he actually sounded reasonable.

Jeb Bush looks much better by comparison with other Republicans, but he is still a Bush, and has supported immigration reform and the common core education curriculum, both unpopular with his party, and besides, he certainly represents the “Establishment” more than anyone.

Mitt Romney claims not to be interested at all in running again, but yet he is seen by many as the fallback choice, despite his losing the Presidency in 2012.

Jon Huntsman, arguably the best candidate possible, seems to have absolutely no chance to convince the Republican Party that his moderate, practical conservatism is the right path.

The more one thinks about it, it makes sense that the Republican Party should seriously consider finding a candidate, preferably a Governor, from the Midwest, which is the true battleground of the Presidential Election of 2016!

None of the above mentioned candidates for the Presidency are from the Midwest, except for Ryan and Walker, both from Wisconsin, but both have fatal flaws hard to overcome.

But all of the Midwest, except Illinois, is arguably a battleground, although only Indiana and Missouri went Republican in 2012, and only Missouri in 2008!

Ohio and Iowa are true battlegrounds, and Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are potentially up for grabs by either party.

So what seems to make sense is to give a hard look at two Midwestern Republican Governors, both of whom have served in Congress, and understand Washington, DC, but have also governed key states that are good models for preparation for the White House, at least in theory!

These two Governors are:

John Kasich of Ohio

Mike Pence of Indiana.

A lot more attention will be given to these two men as we get closer to the real beginning of the Presidential race at the end of 2014 and going into early 2015!

Missouri, The Bellwether State For A Century, No Longer That!

Ronald 2 Comments

Missouri, the state created under a compromise in 1820, became the bellwether state in Presidential elections from 1904 to 2004.

Missouri, always considered a Midwestern state, was one of the border states that did NOT join the Confederate States of America during the Civil War, despite having slavery.

Missouri, with the cities of St. Louis, Kansas City, and Springfield, trending Democratic as most cities did, however saw the rural parts of the state trending Republican as the years went by, and those three cities now represent less percentage of the population than they did in 1990.

So the evangelical Christian Right has become much more of the dominant influence in the rural areas, and Barack Obama could not win Missouri either in 2008 or 2012, and lost by a substantial margin in 2012.

It is now clear that Missouri is trending Republican more and more, and is much more like Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi, than it is like its neighbors of Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota!

Therefore, it is clear that Missouri is now a Southern, rather than Midwestern, state, and that the lack of population growth in St. Louis, Kansas City, and Springfield, together less than 20 percent of the state population, will make it difficult for any Democrat to win the state in a Presidential election.

The only reason for Claire McCaskill holding her Senate seat and Jay Nixon being Governor is their ability to come across as a conservative Democrat, and to have GOP opponents who are not well liked by the Missouri population.

So the bellwether state of Missouri is no more!

“Tight” Vs. “Loose” States: Strongly Enforced Social Rules Vs. Greater Tolerance

Ronald 2 Comments

Two Psychology professors at the University of Maryland have studied the issue of strongly enforced social rules in many states, as against greater, more open minded tolerance in other states.

It is indeed true that America is a complex nation in which social attitudes and influences differ dramatically.

Among the issues utilized are corporal punishment in schools; executions in the state prisons; attitude toward alcohol accessibility; and the legality of same sex marriage and unions.

Predictably, the Southern states are the “tightest”; the Midwest is in the middle; and the Northeast and Pacific Coast are the “loosest” in social mores.

It shows up in political terms, as for instance, Barack Obama was able to win only 40.3 percent of the vote in the “tightest” states, and yet won 58.8 percent of the vote in the “loosest’ states!