Midwest

Will 2012 Presidential Election Mirror 2000 Presidential Election?

Ronald 1 Comment

There is a growing possibility that the Presidential Election of 2012 will become a reprise of the Presidential Election Of 2000, where the winner of the popular vote does not win the Electoral College, and therefore does not become President of the United States.

This time, the Democratic incumbent, Barack Obama, would be the lucky recipient, while last time the Republican candidate, George W. Bush, was to become the fourth Presidential nominee to fail to win the popular vote but become President, after John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford Hayes in 1876, and Benjamin Harrison in 1888.

Some would say that such a result, with Obama being reelected, although losing the popular vote to Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, would be “justice” for what happened to Al Gore, the Democratic nominee in 2000.

But there is a major difference, in that Obama is already President, while Bush was competing for the position, but was not yet our President.

It would be the first time that a sitting President was reelected without the popular vote of the American people, and would make Republicans say he was “illegitimate” to be our President, something already said, but still would be a great tragedy,and probably guarantee another four years of stalemate and gridlock.

It would make, more likely, a move by the Republicans, if they controlled the House of Representatives, which seems likely at this point, to move to impeach the President, as they succeeded in doing to Bill Clinton in 1998.

It would be a political circus, which would paralyze the nation, and the Republican Party would do everything it could to undermine Obama, and to attempt to make it seem as if he was a failed President, to stain his name in history, even if they had been unable to dislodge him from the White House.

It is hoped that this whole scenario will not happen, and that Barack Obama will end up winning the popular vote, but with the impending Hurricane Sandy, likely to cut down voting totals in the Northeast and Midwest, considered strongly Democratic at least in the Northeast, it could assist Romney in winning the national popular vote, and even the Electoral College win is certainly possible for Romney, although still considered unlikely.

With the impending storm, there is a lot to pray for, regarding safety of the population in the Northeast and Midwest, as well as the future of the nation after the Presidential Election Of 2012. We are living in very difficult times, and have to hope for reason and tolerance, without any certainty of either occurring!

The Ultimate “Firewall” For Barack Obama: The Midwest

Ronald Leave a comment

This author has commented before about the fact that the Midwest, an area of declining electoral votes and representation in Congress, because of the rapid migration from the “Frost Belt” to the “Sun Belt”, remains an area that has had a dramatic effect on American politics and Presidential elections.

Ohio and Missouri have been the ultimately accurate states to predict elections, with Missouri only voting with the loser twice—1956 and 2008—and Ohio, also only twice with the loser—1944 and 1960—since 1900.

And now, with Obama clearly winning Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois, and seemingly ahead in Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin, the President could afford to lose the three Southern states he won in 2008—Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina—and still win the Electoral College.

With 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp, and only needing 33 more, Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin would give him 34, raising his total to 271, exactly what George W. Bush won in 2008, against Al Gore, who won the national popular vote by more than 500,000 votes.

With some observers seeing a popular vote surge to Mitt Romney, we could be witnessing a scenario of the same situation as in 2000- –the winner of the electoral vote NOT winning the popular vote, which would make it the fifth time in history, and the second time in 12 years, that such a situation occurred.

The difference is that this time the Democrat will have benefited, while the last time, the Republican benefited.

In a way, if that happened, it would be “justice” for Al Gore supporters and Democrats!

However, it would also lead to growing demands to change the Constitution and get rid of the Electoral College, with the reality being that the likelihood of such a change is near zero!

The Growing Arrogance, Cockiness, And Delusional Nature Of Mitt Romney!

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Despite the fact that all of the polls show a widening lead for President Barack Obama over Mitt Romney, the Republican Presidential nominee has demonstrated a belief that he has nothing to worry about regarding the election.

Dismissing Republican and conservative criticism, Romney says he does not need to change his staff and advisers, or change strategy in any form, as he knows he is going to win the Presidency six weeks from now!

Despite his many gaffes, and his statement about the “47 percent”, and his manipulated 2011 tax return, Romney is being extremely arrogant and cocky, and showing signs of delusion of grandeur!

This man is so accustomed to getting what he wants, and having everyone serve him, that he cannot comprehend reality, and is clueless to the fact that he is antagonizing women, Hispanics and Latinos, senior citizens, young people, and even white working class people in the Midwest, who are angry over his willingness to abandon the auto industry in 2008-2009, while Barack Obama saved this important industry and the hundreds of thousands of jobs that, had they not been saved, unemployment would be so much higher today!

Some would argue that white working class men, in particular, might not be thrilled about voting for an African American President, but are more irritated that a rich white guy, such as Mitt Romney, who has no conception of what their lives are like, was ready to abandon the Midwest to depression conditions!

So, as stated recently, Romney looks more than ever like Thomas Dewey, the GOP Presidential nominee in 1948, who thought he was going to defeat President Harry Truman.

However, the difference is that the polls showed Dewey constantly in the lead until the election, so it is understandable that Dewey might have that delusion.

Romney has not been ahead, and is falling further behind, a totally different circumstance, so Romney may very well need a mental examination as to his sanity, if he can be so overly confident that he is going to win!

Either that, or Romney is lying to us and himself, something he has been doing ever since he first decided to run for President in 2007!

The Drought, The Farm Belt, And The Republican Party

Ronald 2 Comments

Just as has happened often in the past, farmers and ranchers in the South, The Midwest, and the Great Plains are experiencing hard times, with the present drought causing a crisis of massive proportions on a level not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

But has the Congress, with the Republican Party in control of the House of Representatives, shown willingness to deal with that crisis?

The answer is NO, because of the battle over the food stamp program, which Congressman Paul Ryan, now the Republican Vice Presidential nominee, wishes to cut over the next ten years, sparking a battle with Democrats in the Senate, as well as the House. Remember that Ryan is the head of the House Budget Committee, and has developed the Ryan budget, which passed the House with all but ten GOP votes, but not one Democratic vote, and was rejected by the Senate, controlled by Democrats.

Many farmers and ranchers are becoming totally disgusted with the deadlock and stalemate in Washington, DC, and that means potential trouble for some Republican office holders in the House, and could lead to some Democratic gains, as the only alternative for disgruntled people in the farm economy, totally exasperated at the lack of action!

Odd And Interesting Points About Paul Ryan, And The Presidential Election Of 2012

Ronald 4 Comments

There are many odd and interesting points about Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan that have been gathered, and here are some of them!

Paul Ryan, like Mitt Romney, is handsome, and they look good together photogenically.

Paul Ryan looks as if he could be one of Mitt Romney’s sons, and actually is only 12 days older than Romney’s oldest son, Tagg!

Paul Ryan has spent his whole adult life in government, with no experience in the private sector.

Paul Ryan was affected by the narrow minded, selfish teachings of Ayn Rand, and he was involved in work with former Congressman Jack Kemp, one of the authors of what became known as Reaganomics, which started tripling the national debt in the 1980s, due to the theory of Supply Side Economics. Now, Ryan wishes to multiply what Reaganomics in the 1980s and Bushonomics in the 2000s brought about, most of the increased national debt, $7 trillion of the total $10.5 trillion debt that existed when George W. Bush left the Presidency in January, 2009!

Paul Ryan’s dad died when he was in high school, and he was supported by the social safety net of Social Security with survivors benefits while in college.

Paul Ryan has lived off the American taxpayer his entire life, and will receive better health care and pension benefits as part of the federal payroll, that he wishes to cut for everyone else in the middle and lower classes!

Paul Ryan alienated Catholic nuns when he came out for cuts in food stamps and other benefits to poor children, and called for privatizing of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, while wanting greater tax cuts for the top two percent!

Paul Ryan was booed in his own congressional district for the Ryan plan which passed the House of Representatives earlier this year, but with no Democratic support and ten Republicans voting against, as well.

Paul Ryan comes across as articulate, handsome, and charming personally, the latter much more than Mitt Romney, but he also comes across to many as arrogant, nasty, mean spirited, uncaring, hypocritical , uncompromising, and loved by the Tea Party and the right wing media which have declared war on women, senior citizens, the middle class, minorities, and the poor!

Paul Ryan has no foreign policy experience, and being only a Congressman, can be seen as not qualified to be Commander in Chief on Day One!

This is the 5th time in the past half century that a member of the House of Representatives has been selected as a Vice Presidential running mate—William E. Miller of New York with Barry Goldwater in 1964; Geraldine Ferraro of New York with Walter Mondale in 1984; Jack Kemp of New York with Bob Dole in 1996; Dick Cheney of Wyoming with George W. Bush in 2000; and now Paul Ryan of Wisconsin with Mitt Romney in 2012. Notice all four of the earlier choices LOST the election that followed, with the exception of Cheney with Bush, but remember that Al Gore actually won the popular vote in 2000 by 540,000 votes, and the Supreme Court decided the election, intervening for the first time in American history!

And as said in an earlier post, finally, this marks the fourth time in the past 60 years that the Vice Presidential nominee has been more than 20 years younger than the Presidential nominee—Richard Nixon with Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952; Dan Quayle with George H. W. Bush in 1988; Sarah Palin with John McCain in 2008; and now Paul Ryan with Mitt Romney in 2012.

Additionally, we have no one on either ticket for this upcoming election who is from the Sun Belt states, the growing part of the nation. Instead, we have a Midwesterner and an Easterner on each ticket–Barack Obama and Paul Ryan from the Midwest, and Joe Biden and Mitt Romney from the Northeast!

Also, there is no candidate with military experience on either Presidential ticket, the first time since the 1940s!

And we also have no mainline Protestant on the Republican ticket, a mainstay of the GOP, and instead have a Mormon and a Catholic.

If anything, the only true “Protestant” is Barack Obama, as Joe Biden is Catholic!

More oddities and trivia will probably arise as the campaign develops further!

The Vice Presidency Competition: Only Tim Pawlenty Or Rob Portman Makes Sense!

Ronald Leave a comment

More speculation about the race to be Vice Presidential nominee with Mitt Romney has been churning lately, with one clear conclusion: Only former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty or Ohio Senator Rob Portman make any sense!

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan is simply too toxic with his plan to privatize Medicare and Social Security, although Mitt Romney has endorsed the plan. It would harm Romney in a major way in the upcoming campaign.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is simply too controversial and outspoken, not a good match for the reserved Mitt Romney. His image as a “Bully” Governor would be harmful.

New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte, the only woman mentioned, has too little experience to be a heartbeat away, and might bring about comparisons to Sarah Palin, although obviously Ayotte is much smarter and more intelligent than Sarah.

Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal would bring little to Romney’s candidacy, and there are doubts about either being qualified to be a heartbeat away from the White House.

Marco Rubio would be too controversial, too much of a lightning rod, and would not draw Hispanic or Latino support of Mexican Americans or Puerto Rican Americans, or others, other than Cuban Americans.

The only possible alternative to Pawlenty or Portman might be Senator John Thune of South Dakota, but it is clear that Pawlenty and Portman are both qualified, non controversial, and most important, from the heartland Midwest, which Romney must win to become President. Only Thune is from the same area, unless you include Ryan, who again is extremely toxic, and would be unwise for Romney to select!

Seven Factors Which Could Defeat Barack Obama In 2012

Ronald 1 Comment

Despite all of the evidence that Barack Obama has a great advantage for re-election in 2012, there certainly are factors which could lead to his defeat.

These include:

If the economy has another backslide of notable proportions, and gasoline prices continue to rise.

If a war breaks out in the Middle East or elsewhere, and the President is seen as handling the foreign crisis poorly.

If the Republican attempt in many states to limit the vote by discriminatory voter registration legislation succeeds in cutting voter registration and participation down dramatically.

If the enthusiasm of voters for Barack Obama is toned down, because of disillusionment that he has not been able to solve all of the problems he faced upon taking office.

If the effects of the growth of SuperPACS, encouraged by the Citizens United Case of the Supreme Court in 2010, are able to propagandize enough with less informed voters who react to negative commercials.

If a major political scandal erupts that undermines faith in the President’s leadership, with the opposition already starting to blame Obama for the Secret Service scandal.

And finally, the issue of race, as electing the first African American President is a path breaker and milestone, but re-electing would be an even more path breaking milestone, with the constant reference to race by right wing extremists, conservatives, and a majority of Republican officeholders, all designed to instill fear, panic, and conspiracy theories into the heads of white working class voters in Pennsylvania and the Midwest.

So there is no guarantee, and six months is an eternity in American politics!

While Gone In DC, The Republican Presidential Race Ended!

Ronald 4 Comments

While the author was gone on vacation in Washington, DC, the Republican race finally came to an end.

Now, some of you might say that Ron Paul is still in the race, but let’s be serious: Mitt Romney is the GOP Presidential nominee, with both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum having stopped campaigning.

This does not mean that Mitt Romney has an easy road to the nomination, as he still needs several hundred delegates, and has not received the endorsement of either Gingrich or Santorum.

Newt Gingrich left the race primarily for economic issues, and Rick Santorum left due to the illness of his youngest daughter, Bella, and his realization that he might very well lose the Pennsylvania Primary two weeks from now.

By both leaving the race, they remain eligible for consideration in 2016, if Romney does not win the White House, even though one would have to say that for either to believe in their hearts that they have a real chance to be President in the future is purely delusional!

But Mitt Romney now has to face the reality, that in seeking the GOP nomination and selling his soul to the right wing of his party, he has lost credibility completely among middle of the road Americans, and yet is not trusted by the right wing or the evangelical Christians who look on his Mormon faith as a cult.

So Romney cannot be sure that evangelicals and conservatives will actually vote for him in November, and therefore, could lose some of the South and Midwest.

But he also trails terribly behind Barack Obama with women, Hispanics and Latinos, and Independents, and it will be hard to recoup.

And in polls, Romney is not well liked or trusted, and comes across as distant, aloof, and not able to relate to us.

And with Tax Day coming at the end of this week, the Democrats will do their best to remind us that Romney has not released his tax returns, except for the year 2010, while providing John McCain with 23 years of returns when he was considered a possible running mate by McCain in 2008. Why not release all of these tax returns?

The answer is that it is clear that Romney has something to hide, including the reports that he has loads of his $250 million fortune in the Cayman Islands and in Swiss banks!

That makes Romney look very unpatriotic, and unwilling to do his fair share to help the nation, seeing paying higher taxes due to his good fortune, as something that a rich person should feel for the blessing that he was able to accomplish his wealth, and owes it to the country to help its future, rather than just go by the legal limitation of the minimum he needs to pay, due to accounting tricks!

Romney is now said to be “mischievous and naughty” by his wife Anne, often acting like one of their sons, but that does not ring true, and even if so, it does not make up for his unwillingness to understand the plight of the average American, and his stiffness and aloofness and reserve around people he cannot easily relate to.

Americans like to feel that they like their President, and Romney is, unfortunately, simply not a warm and pleasant personality.

That, above all, is his ultimate doom, as it was for Thomas E. Dewey in 1948, who Romney looks more like by the day–an intelligent, qualified person who simply could not relate to the American people he wished to govern.

And get this: both Dewey and Romney grew up in Michigan! Dewey’s campaign against Harry Truman in 1948 went from a landslide lead to a total collapse, against a President who gave the Republican Party “hell”. In the case of Romney, he is way behind with little prospect of recovery, but also running against an incumbent President who is copying the Truman method of giving the Republicans “hell”!

Republicans, Women And Hispanics: Antagonism Self Induced And Irretrievable!

Ronald Leave a comment

The Republican Party has been suicidal in this Presidential campaign, and likely nominee Mitt Romney, as well as Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, have all effectively killed off the chances of the party wooing large percentages of two key voting groups–women and Hispanics.

Joe Scarborough, former Florida Congressman and host of Morning Joe on MSNBC has warned the party of the self induced damage they are doing, but the party leadership and candidates have been tone deaf to it.

And now a new series of polls show Mitt Romney way down in percentage with both women and Hispanics, and with seven months to go, no one, realistically, can see how the former Massachusetts Governor is going to turn the tide in his favor.

Trying to appeal to the right wing has harmed Romney in the nation, while not convincing the right wing to like him.

In the South and Midwest, in more rural and evangelical Christian areas, Romney has been unable to win, or promote loyalty for his candidacy. It is still doubtful that large numbers of these voters will come out for Romney in the Fall campaign.

So the story goes that he must pick a very conservative running mate for the Vice Presidency to appeal to these right wingers, but if so, it will only guarantee that Romney will lose the middle, the center of the population–including women, Hispanics, and also the all important Independents.

Without women, Hispanics, and Independents, how is Romney going to win the all important “swing states” in the South, the Midwest, and the Mountain States, as well as New Hampshire?

The answer is that the election is effectively over, as Romney cannot appeal to the “swing states” adequately, and cannot count on strong right wing support either.

What it comes down to is that Romney, by being a person who one cannot trust as to his views and beliefs, has effectively alienated the middle, while not being trusted even now by the right wing of his party.

And if, by some miracle, Romney won, he would see his dark hair turn grey quickly, as he would have no natural constituency to support him!

The Democrats would fight to weaken him, and the Republicans would feel no loyalty, and would work to move him to the extreme right, making it impossible to get anything done!

If one thinks Barack Obama has had troubles getting things done, imagine a President Romney trying to get things done, whether with Democratic or Republican control of the Congress!

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan As Mitt Romney’s Running Mate: The Reverse Robin Hood!

Ronald 3 Comments

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin yesterday declared his interest in considering the opportunity, if asked, to be the Vice Presidential running mate of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

This author has earlier stated that Ryan would be one of the best choices that Romney could make, along with Ohio Senator Rob Portman, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and South Dakota Senator John Thune, all from the Midwest, the battleground for the 2012 Presidential Election.

Ryan is handsome, well spoken, comes from a “swing state” in the Midwest, and certainly knows a lot about the budget, as the head of the House Budget Committee.

These positives, however, are negated by the fact that Ryan has now proposed two budget years in a row for the ending of Medicare as we know it, replacing it with a voucher system for senior citizens.

Also, Ryan wants to promote even bigger tax cuts for the top two percent, and despite his protestations to the contrary, actually would increase the national debt, while claiming to try to deal with the national budget in a responsible way.

Basically, Paul Ryan is an arrogant, cocky guy who wants to be a reverse Robin Hood, and can sleep at night cutting Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, education, environmental protection, and many other government programs in his mad dash to enrich the Mitt Romneys of the world!

Why would Mitt Romney NOT embrace Paul Ryan, as he and his elite class would be enriched ever further by this Congressman who claims to be a budget hawk, but really just wishes to redistribute income from the poor and middle class to the wealthy?