Midwest

House Republicans Hold Back On Disaster Relief And Emergency Preparedness, Insist On Budget Cuts

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The House Republican leadership. led by Eric Cantor, Majority Leader, is insisting that there be budget cuts to match any increase in spending on disaster relief and emergency preparedness.

This outrage is being perpetrated as the Midwest and the South face the most daunting natural disasters we have ever seen in just the past few months!

The onslaught of hundreds of tornadoes in the past two months, including the most disastrous in Alabama and Missouri, along with the flood crisis faced along the Mississippi River all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico, is a national emergency of massive proportions!

When a natural disaster occurs, reaction by first responders, police, firefighters, and paramedics should be unlimited without any consideration of budget costs!

If government cannot provide aid to the needy and the desperate in a time of trauma, then what good is government at all? It is NOT the job of government solely to defend the nation from outside attack and internal man made threats to our national security. It is ALSO to come to the aid of the needy, the poor, and the disadvantaged when a natural disaster occurs, without forcing budget cuts to match the disaster’s costs!

The truth is that there is no way around the fact that tax INCREASES will be necessary, whether the American people want them or not. It is government’s job to do what is “necessary and proper”, for the “common defense and general welfare”, Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution, the “elastic clause”!

The Republican Party is showing its true colors in so many ways, but particularly in “blackmailing” the Democrats to force cuts in the midst of a national emergency! How despicable and disgraceful!

The States That Will Matter The Most In 2012 Presidential Election

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When one looks ahead to the 2012 Presidential Election, it is clear what the major battlegrounds will be.

As stated earlier, the Midwest is the major area of the country that will decide who is inaugurated President on January 20, 2013!

President Obama won all of the Midwest except for Missouri, but he is unlikely to win Indiana and Iowa in 2012, and Ohio and Missouri will be difficult, but he will win Illinois and seems likely to win the upper Midwest of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan, particularly after the reaction against Scott Walker in Wisconsin spurred public opinion in favor of the rights of labor to collective bargaining.

North Carolina will be hard to hold on to in the South, but Virginia, with its northern areas bordering on the nation’s capital, and Florida, with South Florida a strong Democratic stronghold and growing anger against Rick Scott’s agenda in the Sunshine State, is also likely to stay Democratic.

In the Far West, it seems likely that Colorado and Nevada will stay Democratic, along with New Mexico, and that Arizona, a center of turmoil similar to Wisconsin and Florida, could go to the Democrats in a close finish.

Pennsylvania also seems likely to stay with the Democrats, as well as the Atlantic and Pacific Coast states.

In summary, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, and Iowa may be lost, but Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada will likely stay with the Democrats, and Arizona and Missouri may switch, with Pennsylvania and Ohio seen likely to be a good possibility as well in a close race, with Ohio less likely to stay Democratic.

With the fact that Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008, even the loss of a few states, but with a chance to gain other states, and with the reality that unemployment is now expected to dip to close to 7 percent by the fall of 2012, it seems clear that any Republican will have a rough time being elected President!

Interesting Conflicts Within Republican Presidential Field

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As one surveys the Republican Presidential race and potential opponents, there are several interesting conflicts that exist among the members of the field.

One is the battle between Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, both trying to appeal to the Tea Party favorites, and also being the potential only woman in the race, with Bachmann now seen as much more likely to run than Palin.

A second one is the battle for Southern support, among Newt Gingrich of Georgia, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, and Haley Barbour of Mississippi, with all three having major problems, but Gingrich and Huckabee flirting directly with “Birthers” and pushing the idea that, somehow, Barack Obama is not a true American, an idea which marginalizes both of them, and giving Barbour the edge.

A third is the battle for the Midwest, with Michele Bachmann a potential problem for Tim Pawlenty for social conservative support and Tea Party backing, but with Pawlenty seeming more responsible and more acceptable to many, and with many observers seeing him as having the fewest shortcomings of all the potential GOP candidates.

A fourth conflict is between the two Mormons in the race, both of whom neutral observers see as having the best chance to beat Barack Obama–Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, both former Governors, in Massachusetts and Utah, respectively. Both are very ambitious, but also very qualified, and have been rivals in the past, but Romney has the Massachusetts Health Care Plan as his Achilles Heel, while Huntsman has the issue of having been the US Ambassador to China for the past two years under President Obama. Their competition could be the most substantial and interesting of all of these rivalries, and the issue of whether being Mormons will be the fatal blow to their chances for the nomination.

So it will be a fascinating struggle to find who will be the GOP nominee against Obama, with eleven months to the first vote in the Iowa caucuses

The Die Is Cast: The Midwest And The Presidential Election Of 2012

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With the struggle going on over public service workers in Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, as well as other states, it is clear that the future of organized labor is at stake, but also the future of the Democratic Party and President Barack Obama.

With the reality that organized labor is a large part of the base of the Democratic Party, it is clear that the battleground for victory for the party and its President will be the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa–the heartland of the country.

Also realize that the Republican Party had its birth in the Midwest, and that Barack Obama won all seven states, and nearly won next door Missouri.

To win in 2012, Obama MUST win most, if not all, of these Midwestern states, hit hard by the Great Recession and now led by Republican Governors determined to strike vengeance against the base of the opposition party, organized labor.

And with growing interest in former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, as the one GOP candidate for President who has few negatives, other than not being well known, it could be that President Obama will face a strong conservative opponent in Pawlenty.

The Ultimate Battleground For The 2012 Presidential Election: The Midwest!

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As a result of the Midterm Elections of 2010, it is becoming clear that the 2012 Presidential Election will be ultimately decided in the Midwest, an area of the country suffering more heavily from the Great Recession, and also an area that is losing a significant number of seats in the House of Representatives reapportionment that will take place, as a result of the Census of 2010!

Even though the Midwest is losing electoral votes because of a smaller relative population as compared to the growing Sun Belt, it still contains states that are among the top ten states in population plus others that are in the next ten states in population!

It is also an area that can presently be described as “purple”, rather than “blue” or “red”, but has moved in the direction of the Republican party in the midterm elections due to the economic hard times and the tendency to blame the party in the White House for the poor economic conditions!

With all of the key Midwestern states electing Republican governors except for Illinois, and many state legislatures and House seats going over to the GOP, it poses a massive problem for the Democrats and President Barack Obama as they look at the electoral scene for 2012!

However, two of those states historically are particularly crucial in a Presidential election–Ohio and Missouri!

Ohio has been the decisive state for the Republican Party, as every Republican President since the first one, Abraham Lincoln, to the last one, George W. Bush, has won Ohio! At the same time, it means that if Ohio goes to the Democrats, as say Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, the chances of Gerald Ford and John McCain were therefore dashed!

Missouri, if anything, has been the true bellwether state, as every single time since 1900, except 1956 and 2008, the winner of Missouri has become President! And even Dwight D. Eisenhower came close to defeating Adlai Stevenson in Missouri in 1956, and Barack Obama came extremely close to defeating John McCain in Missouri in 2008!

Since the Atlantic Coast of the nation–New England and the Middle Atlantic–is seen as solidly Democratic except maybe for New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and the Pacific Coast also seen as solidly Democratic, while most of the South, maybe all of it including Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, are seen as solidly Republican next time, and much of the Mountain West and Great Plains also solidly “red”, it will be the Midwest which will decide the electoral winner again next time!

So the Democrats and Barack Obama will have to make inordinate efforts to appeal for support in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and cannot afford to lose much of this area if the party and Obama are to win in 2012!

That is one of the reasons why the Democratic Party is planning its national convention in the Midwest in 2012, with St. Louis, Cleveland, and Minneapolis as the key competitors for that honor!

So despite declining population percentages, the heartland of the nation again will be the central focus in the upcoming national elections in 2012!

The Decline Of The Midwest In American Politics!

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The Midwest, the heartland of America, which had a massive effect on American politics in much of the last century, is sadly becoming less influential and significant due to lack of population growth and the increased power of the Sunbelt!

The Midwest–defined as Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas–had members in both houses of Congress that had a tremendous effect on American political debate– as well as Governors who became nationally important, and Presidential candidates and winners of the office!

Just a short list of influential politicians from the Midwest would include Presidents Abraham Lincoln, Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford Hayes, James Garfield, Benjamin Harrison, William McKinley, William Howard Taft, Warren G. Harding, Herbert Hoover, Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Gerald Ford, and Barack Obama!

Presidential candidates who lost from the Midwest include William Jennings Bryan, James Cox, Robert LaFollette, Sr., Alf Landon, Wendell Willkie, Adlai Stevenson, Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern, and Walter Mondale!

Other prominent Midwesterners include Robert Taft, Arthur Vandenberg, Birch Bayh, Paul Douglas, Charles Percy, Tom Harkin, Stuart Symington, George Norris, Arthur Capper, Philip Hart, Carl Levin, William Proxmire, Russ Feingold, Eugene McCarthy, Paul Wellstone and numerous others too many to name!

The Midwest reached its peak in influence and Congress in the 1890s, but continued to have great influence for many decades, even though their population percentage within America continued to decline!

The Midwest had 143 Congressional seats in the House of Representatives a century ago, but will now probably have only 94! The Midwest will have only about a fifth of the seats in Congress, as compared to almost 25 percent in the West, 36 percent in the South, and a measly 18 percent in the Northeast, which is also suffering in the population percentage decline big time! 🙁

While Barack Obama is from the Midwest, the odds of another Midwesterner being President is remote, with all Presidents since Johnson, except Ford, being from the Sunbelt–and Ford was not elected!

The economic problems of the Midwest, suffering more heavily than most parts of the country from the Great Recession, will have less attention with its decline, and they will have far less influence in the future Presidential elections because of fewer electoral votes! 🙁

The effect on American politics of the decline of the Midwest will be felt throughout the nation, as migration South and West continues unabated!