Nate Silver

Trump Support Hemorraghing Rapidly In “Red” States!

Ronald 4 Comments

Three weeks to go until the Presidential Election of 2016, and it seems clear, by public opinion polls,that Donald Trump’s support in “Red” states is hemorrhaging rapidly.

His mishandling of the sexual assault allegations has turned many Republicans against him, and his condemnation of Republican leadership, including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, is damaging his ability even to hold on to the loyal Republican states.

So we have evidence that the following states are possible pick ups by Hillary Clinton:

North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Utah
Indiana
Missouri
South Carolina
Texas
Alaska
Mississippi
Kansas
Nebraska (or at least the Omaha area)

One can be quite certain that many of these states will, in the end, still back Donald Trump, but by a much smaller margin than for Mitt Romney in 2012 or John McCain in 2008.

But the first four on the above list look ripe for being picked up by Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.

I will post an entry close to the election on my final projections, and I remind my readers that, independent of Nate Silver in 2012, I projected, as he did, the precise electoral vote distribution-332-206.

I also will publish my projection on History News Network, and will be on radio with Jon Grayson of CBS St Louis, KMOX 1120 AM, Overnight with Jon Grayson, one of the radio shows I have been on, and posted on the right side of the blog, on Election Night at 1 AM ET on November 9, a few hours after the polls have closed, to comment on the results.

The Republicans’ Last Stand For The Senate, 2014!

Ronald 1 Comment

The year 2014 is the last time that the Republicans have an opportunity to gain control of the US Senate, having lost it in 2006, and failing to regain it in 2008, 2010, and 2012.

Nate Silver believes that the GOP MIGHT gain control of six seats needed to make a majority, but does not predict more than that!

The reason for that is that the Democrats have to defend 21 seats, while the Republicans only have 15 seats to defend, all due to the good Democratic year of 2008, when Barack Obama helped to keep a Democratic majority in the Senate, at the time of his first election.

But in 2016, the Senate will have only 10 Democratic seats facing election, while the Republicans will have 24, and that guarantees that, even if the Republicans gain a slight majority and control in 2014, that they will lose it for sure in 2016, with a strong Democratic Presidential nominee and the Electoral College greatly favoring the Democrats for the White House.

But do not assume that the Democrats will actually lose six seats, and realize that ObamaCare will become a popular and positive move in the coming months, with over 6 million now covered by it, and many former critics, who had listened to GOP propaganda and right wing talk show hosts, realizing how good a plan it really is, and a true life saver for millions!

And If Barack Obama can have some luck and skill in foreign affairs over the next seven months, as with possible resolution of the Ukraine crisis with Russia, then all bets are off on the GOP gaining the Senate in 2014.

But again, even if they do, the GOP will NOT have control for more than two years, and 2016 will see a major Democratic resurgence in the upper chamber!

Nate Silver And Senate Predictions: Stop Panicking, Democrats!

Ronald 7 Comments

Nate Silver, formerly of the New York Times, and now running the website 538, is considered a genius on statistics, and his predictions were spot on in 2012.

Therefore, his new prediction that the Republican Party will win six seats and a total majority of 51 in the US Senate gets a lot of publicity.

YES, it is possible what Silver projects, BUT saying that a party will win six seats and have a bare majority of 51, means that if he is off by one, then the Democrats keep the majority.

Silver may be brilliant, but he is not perfect by any means, anymore than anyone, so for Democrats to panic based on what he says seven and a half months before the midterm elections, is ridiculous!

If anything, it should make the Democrats work ever harder, and back with pride what they stand for, as there is nothing to be ashamed of, in backing ObamaCare.

Better to go down in principle, than abandon one’s beliefs, is the best advice.

Besides, foreign policy crises may intervene, and can turn things around dramatically, as it did in 1962, when the Cuban Missile Crisis in October affected the midterms, preventing a major loss of seats by the Democrats, the party of John F. Kennedy, who looked great in that crisis! The Democrats gained three seats in the Senate, and only lost four seats in the House of Representatives!

So, as Yogi Berra said, “it ain’t over until it’s over!”

Political Prognostication: Nate Silver Vs. Michael Barone–Exact Same Electoral Vote Predicted For Obama And Romney!

Ronald 3 Comments

Anyone who studies and follows American politics knows the names of Nate Silver, who writes the 538 blog for the New York Times, and Michael Barone, who is a conservative pundit for Fox News Channel, and the principal author of the authoritative work, THE ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS.

The two men totally disagree on the results of today’s Presidential election, so much so that it is disturbing, because, obviously, one is totally wrong!

Silver is 34 years old, considered a political genius by many, and correctly predicted the Presidential Election Of 2008 and every Senate race, and uses statistical methods to decide what is going on politically, and his last assessment last night was that Barack Obama had a 91.6 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, with a margin of 315-223.

Michael Barone, who is twice Silver’s age (68), and whose publication mentioned above has been regarded as the best single volume book every two years on the Presidential election, Congressional elections, and state gubernatorial elections–a literal gold mine of information on the 50 states and the national government— and a series that the author has had since the first publication forty years ago in 1972, says Mitt Romney will win the Electoral College by 315-223.

Notice that–the EXACT same electoral vote total–one by a man half the age of the second man—and both considered “experts”!

How can both be correct? The answer is that they cannot both be correct, so besides the results tonight and tomorrow morning, we are witnessing the battle of the “Experts”–and it will be interesting to see whether Silver or Barone is correct!

512 Paths To White House For Barack Obama; 76 Paths To White House For Mitt Romney

Ronald 5 Comments

The New York Times and Nate Silver today list 512 Paths to the White House for Barack Obama, and 76 Paths to the White House for Mitt Romney in graph form, using different combinations of “swing” or “battleground” states to demonstrate the various paths.

Leave it to Nate SIlver, the most brilliant political statistician in America, who continues to say that Obama has an 85 percent chance of winning a second term, while Romney has a 15 percent chance of winning the White House.

Ultimately, in about 36-48 hours, we should know whether Nate Silver remains the “genius”, or is indeed a “paper tiger”!

Bet on Nate Silver would be this author’s advice!

Nate Silver Convincing That Barack Obama Will Be Reelected President On Tuesday

Ronald Leave a comment

Nate Silver, the most legitimate prognosticator on the American political scene, who writes for the NY TIMES, has upped the ante on the reelection of Barack Obama to the White House with his declaration that the odds for Obama have been raised to 85 percent, based on 19 of 22 polls in the “swing states” in the past few days, showing him ahead.

Silver has always put Obama in the lead, but now, after Hurricane Sandy, his odds of winning have gone up.

So despite the Gallup and Rasmussen polls that show a near deadlock, Silver claims that Mitt Romney winning is a real gamble, and would not be worth a bet, unless one is prepared to lose a large amount of money!

We all know about the Gallup polls of 1948, which were totally wrong, but this is NOT 1948, and the thought is that the Gallup and Rasmussen polls are wrong, and that Nate Silver and the polls that show Obama winning are correct.

This author has always believed that Obama would win, based on his record, and the multiple faults and weaknesses of Mitt Romney and his campaign.

In about 60 hours, we shall know!

The Theoretical Possibility Of A Romney-Biden White House

Ronald Leave a comment

IF by some chance, the electoral vote would be evenly divided 269-269, the House of Representatives, likely to have more states with a Republican majority delegation, would then get to choose the President, as they did in 1800 and 1824, and would then choose Mitt Romney, their party’s nominee.

But if the Democrats continued to control the US Senate, then Vice President Joe Biden would be likely to be chosen, and we would have a split White House, which we only had after the 1796 election, when Thomas Jefferson was the opponent of John Adams, and ended up as his unhappy Vice President, and then defeated him in a tumultuous election in 1800.

The 12th Amendment in 1804 was supposed to prevent such an eventuality again, but it is possible, but highly unlikely, that such a scenario could happen.

This would be bad for America, as certainly Romney and Biden would not get along, and it is well known that Biden has ambitions to run for President in 2016, and would likely oppose President Romney on every issue imaginable, as they might be opponents in 2016, when Romney would run for reelection.

It is interesting to think about this, but no one should worry, as the odds of a tie of 269-269 is highly remote, and every indication from the “swing states” and Nate Silver in the NY Times is that Barack Obama will win the Electoral College without any problem, and win most of the contested states, as many other polls also indicate!

Ohio Remains Strongly For Barack Obama With Six Days To Go To Presidential Election

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Ohio, the state that EVERY Republican President has won from Abraham Lincoln to George W. Bush, remains strongly behind Barack Obama, with six days to go to the Presidential Election of 2012.

It seems as if Mitt Romney may be gaining in other “swing states”, according to some polls, although others show otherwise, but without Ohio, Romney would have to win all of the rest of those states to pull out a victory, and despite the Gallup national poll, which shows Romney ahead, the Nate Silver–NY Times model seems more likely the final result.

And if Obama wins Ohio and the election, the likely major reason will be because Obama saved the auto industry in Ohio and the Midwest, while Romney, despite his father’s involvement in the industry, will willing to allow it to die, and take with it, million of jobs, including ancillary industries.

Gallup Vs. Nate Silver: Who Is Reliable In Prediction Of Presidential Race?

Ronald Leave a comment

Here we are a week out from the election, and the public opinion polls and prognosticators are driving everyone nuts, with contradictory views and statistics as to whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be elected next week.

The Gallup polls have projected Romney as ahead by five points in some polls, and other polls have shown a tight race, almost even.

Meanwhile, Nate Silver of the NY TIMES, considered the master of political polling science, says that Barack Obama has about a 73 percent chance of winning, particularly in regard to the “swing states”, showing him ahead in all but North Carolina and Florida, and a tossup in Colorado and Virginia.

But leaving North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Virginia out of the mix for Obama, that still means he is favored in New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nevada, and will win 295 electoral votes, 24 more than is needed to win the Presidency.

So this leaves us in a quandary!

Who do we trust or believe in? Nate Silver or the Gallup Polls, or other polls?

Remember, the Gallup polls were totally wrong in 1948, predicting a victory for Thomas E. Dewey over Harry Truman!

But, of course, that was 64 years ago, a long time, with much improvement and proof of reliability of Gallup much of the time!

On the other hand, the last time we had such a stiff, awkward, hard to relate to, Governor of a Northeastern state who had been born in Michigan, before Mitt Romney was, indeed, Dewey in 1948!

Hmmm, that is food for thought!

Nate Silver Gives Odds For Republican Presidential Candidates A Year Before The Presidential Election

Ronald 1 Comment

Nate Silver of the NEW YORK TIMES on Friday explained, according to his statistical model, the odds of any GOP candidate for President having the opportunity to win the popular vote in the 2012 Presidential Election..

Note he does not say that any of these candidates will win the election, because, of course, the Electoral College will decide who wins the White House, and four times the popular vote loser nationally (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000) has won the election.

According to his model, the best candidate with the most opportunity to win is Jon Huntsman, the former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, who has so far made no dent in the public opinion polls.

And yet, Silver’s argument is that with a 2.5% growth of the economy in 2012, a fairly tepid growth thought to be the most likely and best scenario, Huntsman has a 71 percent chance of winning the popular vote, as compared to 58 percent for Mitt Romney. No other candidate can win under this model, with Herman Cain having a 41 percent chance, Rick Perry a 30 percent chance, and Michele Bachmann having a 12 percent chance.

IF there is a stalled economy with no growth, Huntsman’s chances rise to 90 percent, Romney to 83 percent, Cain to 70 percent, Perry to 59 percent, and Bachmann to 34 percent.

If GDP grows only 2.3 percent instead of 2.5 percent, Huntsman has a 73 percent chance of winning, Romney 60 percent, Cain 44 percent, Perry 32 percent, and Bachmann 14 percent.

If the economy grows by the unexpected amount of 4 percent GDP growth, then Huntsman has a 55 percent chance, Romney 40 percent, Cain 25 percent, Perry 17 percent, and Bachmann 5 percent.

Notice that Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are not even considered in this model drawn up by Nate Silver.

It ultimately comes down to what the author has said many times; that Jon Huntsman, despite his poor performance in polls so far, is by far the best bet for the Republican Party against Barack Obama, BUT the Tea Party does not care for him; evangelical Christians will not like him for being a Mormon; and unless he can win New Hampshire, he will have no opportunity to move ahead, and right now it seems unlikely.

And since Romney has many of the same problems as Huntsman, as listed above, and has actually less of a chance than Huntsman among key GOP groups, it looks likely that the Republican Party will blow the chance they theoretically have to win the White House!