New Hampshire Primary

New Hampshire And South Carolina Republican 2024 Presidential Primaries Could Be Very Interesting!

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With two and possibly three Republican Presidential contenders being residents of two of the three earliest states to conduct primaries in 2024, the situation presents the possibility of a unusual set of circumstances.

At the moment, Donald Trump is far ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and leagues ahead of everyone else who has entered the competition, or plans to do so.

But if New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu enters the competition, the possibility exists that he could surprise the field, and win his state’s Republican primary.

And two South Carolinians, former Governor and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Senator Tim Scott, have entered the Presidential race, and one or the other could surprise and defeat both Trump and DeSantis.

However, the complication in South Carolina is that Senator Lindsey Graham and Governor Henry McMaster both have endorsed Trump.

The involvement of DeSantis in this situation is hard to conceptualize, as he would seem to have little chance to win either New Hampshire or South Carolina.

At this point, all that can be said is that the early primaries will be very interesting and significant to watch!

The Democratic Primary Calendar Change For 2024 Makes Sense!

Ronald 1 Comment

The Democratic Party has made an important decision regarding the Presidential primary calendar for the Presidential Election of 2024.

The system of the last half century has been that Iowa holds its caucus first, followed by New Hampshire then having its primary.

Both Iowa and New Hampshire are overwhelmingly white and rural, in a nation that is more diverse than ever, so it is, rightfully, time for change!

So the decision has been made to put South Carolina first on Saturday, February 3, followed by joint primaries in New Hampshire and Nevada on Tuesday, February 6; then by Georgia on Tuesday February 13, and then, Michigan on Tuesday February 27.

If Iowa and New Hampshire refuse to change their dates, then the delegates from those two states may not be seated at the Democratic National Convention, and the Republican Party is highly unlikely to cooperate with Democrats, so it will created a confused situation.

This could include some wayward Democrat choosing to run in the Democratic primary to challenge Joe Biden, and creating confusion and disarray.

The new situation downgrades the idea of the Presidential Caucus system, which has deteriorated from a point of about 15 states holding them instead of primaries, now down to just 3 or 4, and likely to die on the vine, with maybe only Iowa fighting the tide and doing its own thing, but with the state unable to participate in the Democratic National Convention, a situation that could also affect New Hampshire!

No system is perfect, but President Biden pushed the change, due to the fact that it was South Carolina that put him on the road to the White House, after Iowa and New Hampshire both rejected his candidacy earlier!

Is Joe Biden “Done”? Not So Quickly, One Might Say!

Ronald 10 Comments

Former Vice President Joe Biden has done poorly in the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, being 4th and 5th respectively, and many observers are thinking he is “done”.

Not so fast, as Biden is still favored to win in South Carolina, and in theory, is the only Democrat to have widespread African American support.

And Super Tuesday on March 3 will be the ultimate decider on his fate, as if he performs poorly in the 14 state primaries on that day, then it will be time for him to drop out.

Biden has been trying to be President for a third of a century, longer than any Presidential contender in American history, having first tried in 1988, and then 2008, before now.

He has never come near being a serious potential candidate, and his age is a detriment, plus his seemingly declining public performance.

This blogger and author has been a long time fan and supporter of Joe Biden, who exudes the most important trait any President should have, empathy. He is the kind of person who one could imagine that if he was your neighbor, he would ask if he could help you with anything.

He is a genuine, sincere, decent man, with more experience than any Presidential contender or President ever came with to the Oval Office.

But we know that experience and capability is not always a plus, and that many Presidents we have elected were far from the best choices, but they had the magic and the luck to be able to win.

We may be seeing the final conclusion on the public life of Joe Biden in the next month, but he can still be an adviser or participant under another Democratic President, and of course, he can stay in the public eye through speeches and writings, contributing to public discourse.

And since he is in his late 70s, he can also choose to enjoy his retirement, his family, and recall all of the contributions he made as a six term US Senator, and as one of the best Vice Presidents in American history!

New Hampshire Primary: Moderates Dominate, And Joe Biden And Elizabeth Warren In Free Fall

Ronald 29 Comments

The New Hampshire Primary results are in, and the winners are Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, who together won 44 percent of the vote, compared to Bernie Sanders winning 25.7 percent, only about 3,700 votes ahead of Buttigieg, who had 24.4 percent of the vote on his own.

Even if you add Elizabeth Warren’s poor showing, 9.2 percent of the vote to Sanders’ total, the moderates clearly won, even not including Joe Biden’s embarrassing 5th place finish, with 8.4 percent of the vote.

It is clear that both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are in free fall, and if they do not do well in Nevada and South Carolina, and on Super Tuesday on March 3, they are done as candidates, and it is likely down to Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and the likelihood that Michael Bloomberg may do well on Super Tuesday, after spending about $300 million on advertising so far.

Tom Steyer, Deval Patrick, and Tulsi Gabbard remain technically in the race, which is down to just nine candidates, after Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet withdrew last night.

No one thought that Buttigieg and Klobuchar would get this far as survivors, and the sense is that one or the other, or both as a team, might very well be the Democratic ticket for 2020, two Midwestern candidates, who could, in theory, accomplish what Hillary Clinton could not do in 2016, win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and potentially, even Ohio and Iowa, enough to win the White House!

First Impressions Of Iowa Caucuses: Pete And Bernie Lead Factions, Joe And Amy In Trouble, Elizabeth Number Three Hanging On

Ronald 17 Comments

Although the Iowa Caucuses results are still not complete at this writing, the following conclusions are clear:

The big winners are Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders, and they now become the leaders of the two factions in the Democratic Party.

Joe Biden in 4th place and Amy Klobuchar in 5th place are on notice if they cannot do better soon, with Super Tuesday clearly their last stand if they do not perform much better.

Elizabeth Warren may have been 3rd, but failed to win any of the 99 counties, so she seems to be at a difficult time with New Hampshire coming up, and Sanders expected to win.

So it looks like the likely battle, subject to change, is between the oldest candidate and the youngest candidate in the field, with Pete precisely half the age of Bernie.

One is a non devout person of Jewish heritage who calls himself a Socialist, and the other is a devout Episcopalian who attends church regularly, and is gay and has a husband.

Buttigieg won the John F. Kennedy Profiles in Courage award as a high school senior in 2000, having written an essay on the integrity and political courage of then Congressman Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and met Caroline Kennedy at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library.

This is certainly an ironic situation, that the two front runners are linked in this manner. And the fact that one of my contributors to commentary on this blog, D, supports Sanders while I support Pete is also of interest.

So the battle is on, and we shall see what happens!

The Need To End The Iowa Caucuses And All Caucuses, And Have A National Primary Day In June Of Presidential Election Years

Ronald 20 Comments

The Iowa Caucuses debacle, at this writing, no results due to “technical glitches with the new app”, is just further reason to end the Iowa Caucuses and the few other states that have such caucuses.–Nevada, Wyoming–and have a National Primary Day in June of the Presidential election years.

All candidates should campaign nationally, and the idea that small, unrepresentative states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, should have such attention paid to them, as they gain through the present system, should end.

Just as we have a National Election Day, we should have a National Primary Day, and that would be better for the parties and the nation. The only caveat might be, as in most states, that early voting could take place for up to three weeks before the election, but no vote count allowed until the end of National Primary Day.

This would enliven interest in the election, and force candidates to campaign in different ways, but with one result for each party with five months to go until the election in November!

Time For A New Generation Of Leadership: My Endorsement Of Pete Buttigieg For President!

Ronald 7 Comments

With the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday evening, followed by the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, and the South Carolina Primary later in February, and then Super Tuesday on March 3 (14 states voting), it is time to consider who would be the best choice for President of the United States.

Anyone who has read my blog for the past eleven and a half years knows of my genuine affection for former Vice President Joe Biden.

I wish he had been the nominee in 2016, and believe he would have defeated Donald Trump.

But at age 77 now, and concerned about the idea of an octogenarian Presidency if Joe, or Bernie Sanders, or Mike Bloomberg wins the election, I do not think any of these three would be the best choice for the future of the party and nation.

I wish to make it clear that I will support whoever the Democratic Presidential nominee is in 2020, but prefer a younger candidate who represents the future.

So therefore, I am endorsing former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg for President!

I believe that Pete, while seen as a “dark horse”, represents the future of the party, and would move the nation forward in a rational, reasonable way.

He would be the John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama of his time, as the thought of a Catholic, a Southerner, a Governor of a small state, and a mixed race African American President was unlikely, but occurred in 1960, 1976, 1992, and 2008.

Pete was the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, a small city, but there is no description of who a President should be, and what matters more is the inspiration that a candidate brings to the race.

And Pete represents a new generation; a man who would be the youngest President in history; a man who served in the military in Afghanistan; a Harvard and Oxford graduate; a recipient of the Rhodes Scholarship; and a scholarly man who can speak seven languages.

Pete is a moderate progressive, which is the mainstream of the Democratic Party, and this blogger and scholar does not believe that Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren can win the election. And were either to win, the strong odds are against their agenda as more ambitious than the next Congress would be.

To accomplish their goals would require a Congress similar to that under Franklin D. Roosevelt in the mid 1930s, or Lyndon B. Johnson in the mid 1960s, but that occurring is close to zero, in reality!

The fact that Pete Buttigieg is gay and has a husband would not, in my estimation, be a major factor in the election, except for extremist religious Christians and Jews, but realistically, they would be unlikely to vote Democratic anyway.

And as far as African American voters, while they might favor Joe Biden now, and there are some issues with Pete’s handling of racial issues in South Bend, can one really imagine African Americans backing Donald Trump for a second term?

The prospect of a woman nominee, either Amy Klobuchar or Elizabeth Warren, would be appealing, particularly after the disappointment in 2016, and the fact that the centennial of the Woman Suffrage 19th Amendment, is in 2020. But I think the odds of midwestern white men supporting a woman over a gay male is highly questionable.

A great idea, however, would be to select a qualified woman for Vice President, with Amy Klobuchar the front runner in that regard, older by a generation than Pete, but Obama had Joe Biden who was a generation older as well.

Having a Midwestern ticket of Pete and Amy would insure, in my estimation, a Democratic victory in November, with two firsts–a gay male President and a woman Vice President–two advancements brought to us by the Democratic Party, the party of reasonable revolutionary change as in the case of John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama, half a century apart, and now looking into the future of the nation.

So again, I am in for whoever the Democrats nominate for President as the best choice for the nation, but enthusiastically endorse Pete Buttigieg for President, and welcome all commentary by any reader!

The Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Begins As House Appoints Impeachment Managers, And Hands Over The Two Articles Of Impeachment To The Senate

Ronald 13 Comments

Finally, a month after the House of Representatives adopted two articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has appointed seven members of the House to be impeachment managers, and has handed over the two articles of impeachment to the Senate.

More evidence against Donald Trump has emerged, and hopefully, the Republicans in the US Senate will realize the need for new evidence to be allowed, and for witnesses to be brought before the Senate, as Chief Justice John Roberts presides, over what is now the third Presidential impeachment trial in American history.

John Roberts joins Salmon P. Chase in 1868 and William Rehnquist in 1999 in the historic stewardship over the impeachment proceedings, with the President on trial, although not in person, and with the House having impeachment managers to argue the case, and the Senate to act as a jury. All branches of the government are present in the Senate chamber as this trial commences, and lasts a few weeks, likely beyond the Iowa Caucuses on February 3 and the New Hampshire Primary on February 11.

The Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Helps Promote Moderates Over Progressives In Democratic Presidential Competition

Ronald 9 Comments

Last night’s Iowa Democratic Presidential Debate added “steam” to the belief that moderates are gaining over progressives, based on performance, and also on the reality that the upcoming Donald Trump impeachment trial will “bench” the two leading progressives, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, along with Amy Klobuchar and “forgotten” candidate Michael Bennet, giving the edge to Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg.

For a few weeks, beyond Iowa and probably including New Hampshire, those Senators will be unable to campaign in person, a major disadvantage.

It could be that it will have no effect on Iowa or New Hampshire, but the feeling is growing that it might be that a ticket will emerge of Joe Biden for President, with his experience, knowledge, and likability, running with Mayor Pete for Vice President, from the Midwest heartland, and making a major step forward as an openly gay Vice Presidential nominee .

Experience, youth, and likability, all in one ticket!

At the same time, a ticket of Biden with Amy Klobuchar, or a ticket of Pete for President and Amy for VP or vice versa would be fine, too!

The Caucus-Primary System In The Future Needs To Be Reformed

Ronald 18 Comments

The Caucus-Primary system for Presidential elections needs to be reformed, as it is clear that having Iowa and New Hampshire go first, with both being totally lacking in diversity, is not a system for the long term.

The argument could be that California and Texas should go first, as they are very diverse and together have about 20 percent of the national population.

Add states such as Wisconsin and Virginia, and that would be a good start toward a system that would be much more amenable to the promotion of racial and ethnic diversity in a nation that will be majority non white in a generation. Therefore, it would be more reflective of reality, and allow minority candidates a better chance to survival in the process.

It is sad that Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, and Cory Booker have been forced out of the Presidential race for the Democrats, due to lack of financial support. Hopefully, the future can be different.