New Mexico

The Cinco De Mayo Holiday, And Recognition Of Role Of Mexican Americans In American Politics

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Today is the 150th anniversary of a Mexican uprising against a French army taking over Mexico during the rule of Emperor Napoleon III in France. Although the Mexican people did not overthrow French influence and control until five years later, this is seen as a celebratory Mexican national holiday.

This celebration of Mexico’s history should remind us that Mexican Americans are part of the largest minority group in America, with over ten percent of the nation being from Mexican heritage, and almost two thirds of all Hispanics-Latinos being of Mexican heritage, and all Hispanics and Latinos being 16 percent of the nation, more than the 12.5 percent of the country which is African American.

Mexican Americans who vote have always voted overwhelmingly Democratic, although about 40 percent did vote for George W. Bush when he was Governor of Texas in the 1990s, and in his two terms as President.

The growth in the Mexican population, and the fact that they are very young as a group, makes them prime factors in the future of American politics, as with the growth of Mexican American population, states that have been Republicans and anti immigrant in their politics are starting to move toward a situation where the Republicans will lose those states over time.

With over 60 percent of Mexican Americans already residing in California and Texas, California is already lost to Republicans in the Presidential race, and it is believed that Texas will turn Democratic in the next decade.

The same is likely in Arizona, the ground zero of nativism toward Latinos, and it is already so in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico,

Additionally, the Hispanic and Latino population is affecting the politics of Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, as well as Florida, with much of the transition being because of Mexican Americans.

So while there is a lot of anger about an estimated 7 million illegal immigrants from Mexico, the actual Mexican American population which is legal is growing and coming of age, and will have a dramatic effect on the future of Congress and the Presidency over the coming decade, including having a great influence on the upcoming election in November.

Arizona Ripe For Pickup By Barack Obama In Presidential Campaign Of 2012

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Arizona, the center of anti immigrant legislation, and arguably the ‘looniest” state in America, at least according to Bill Maher, is ripe for pickup by the Democratic Party and Barack Obama in the Presidential campaign of 2012.

Yes, it is true that the legislature is overwhelmingly Republican, and that both Senators (John McCain and Jon Kyl) are Republicans, and that the majority of the House delegation is Republican, and that Governor Jan Brewer is Republican, but yet with the growing Hispanic and Latino population, now about 30 percent, it looks as if Arizona is, over time, going to go the way of California, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado and vote Democratic.

Even Texas in the future, certainly by 2020, is likely to tip Democratic as long as the GOP continues its nativist mentality toward immigrants.

No one is saying that Obama will win Arizona, but there is a good chance that he could, and even if he does not, Arizona is likely to be a closer race than it was in 2008, when an Arizona Senator named John McCain won his home state, but not by as much as one would have thought (about 8.5 percentage points of the vote and 196,000 popular votes).

Obama Strategies To Win Reelection In 2012: Alternative Routes To Victory

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Barack Obama seems extremely likely to win the entire Northeast from Maine to Maryland and Washington, DC in 2012, with possibly New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as exceptions. So that would be 112 electoral votes, or without Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, 88 electoral votes.

He is expected also to win the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon and Washington as well, which would mean 74 electoral votes.

In the Midwest, Illinois is a certainty, and the upper Midwest seems strongly Democratic too, including Michigan, WIsconsin, and Minnesota, which means these four states are together a total of 56 electoral votes.

So far, that adds up to 218 electoral votes, without New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and with them, it is 242, 28 short of the number needed, 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency.

So what is needed to guarantee an Obama victory?

1, The state of Florida with 29 electoral votes would put Obama over the top with all of the above states, and add Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, all with growing Hispanic and Latino populations, and supportive of Obama the last time, and you get 26 electoral votes, to replace a possible loss of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

2. Another scenario is to win Ohio and Missouri, the two states most representative of the winning Presidential candidates, with Ohio being with the GOP nominee every time he has won in US History, and Missouri wrong only twice on the Presidential winner since 1900–1956 and 2008–with their combined 28 replacing Florida or Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

3. Another strategy is to try to win in Georgia and Arizona, along with Missouri, three states won by John McCain in 2008, but all susceptible to moving to Obama with growing Hispanic and Latino populations. This way one gains 37 electoral votes, replacing either Florida OR Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

4. Also, if Obama wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins 28 electoral votes and does not need Florida, OR Ohio and Missouri, OR Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado!

The point is that Obama has many scenarios to win, and it is very hard to imagine that all of the above combinations of states will go to a Republican party as right wing and divided as it now is, demonstrated even more by the debacle over the middle class tax cut continuation, leading to a split between Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

So Obama supporters need to work hard, but the future looks bright!

The Republican Vice Presidential Nominee In 2012: Marco Rubio, Brian Sandoval, Or Susana Martinez?

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The reality that Hispanics are now one out of every six Americans, and that they will continue to grow as a percentage of the American population over future decades, is ringing an alarm bell among Republicans, who are starting to realize that if they cannot gain at least a substantial percentage of Hispanic voters in 2012, they have no hope to win the Presidential election against Barack Obama.

So three names come forward as likely Vice Presidential possibilities as a result: Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval, and New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, all newly elected statewide.

But since Florida is the fourth largest state in electoral votes (29), and soon to surpass New York and become number three; and with Nevada (6) and New Mexico (5) being among the smallest states in population and electoral votes even with growth, it is very obvious that Marco Rubio, who has not yet hit the age of 40, is the person to watch for Vice President, no matter who the Republicans ultimately nominate for President!

Female Vs. Female Political Races And More Women Running Against Men: A Record Breaking Year?

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A fascinating part of the 2010 election cycle is the fact that there will be more female vs. female races than we have seen before in American history!

For the Senate, the only such race will be Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer against former Hewlett Packard CEO and Republican Carly Fiorina in California!

For the office of Governor, there will be two all female races–in New Mexico, where Republican Susana Martinez will run against Democrat Diane Denish; and Oklahoma, where Democrat Jari Askins will compete against Republican Mary Fallin! Both Democrats, by the way, have been Lieutenant Governor of their states and still are!

In Congressional races, the most notable is Republican Congresswomen Michele Bachmann of Minnesota against Democratic state legislator Tarryl Clark!

But also running in South Dakota for the state wide Congressional seat are Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin against Republican state representative Kristi Noem!

Of course, there are other women running for high office, but against men! Among them are gubernatorial candidates in California (Republican Meg Whitman), South Carolina (Republican Nikki Haley), and Florida (Democrat Alex Sink). For the Senate, we see Sharron Angle (Republican of Nevada) and Linda McMahon (Republican of Connecticut). Additionally, there are numerous Congresswomen running for reelection, and many women who are opposing men in and outside of the House of Representatives for House seats.

Will this be a major “Year of the Woman” in American politics? Maybe it will not be a record breaker, but certainly women are playing a growing role in American politics, and of course we are not talking here about the numerous women who sit in state legislatures, city councils, boards of education, and other elected bodies, or who are running to be part of these government structures!