North Carolina

Potential To Add Seven Democratic Women Senators In November Races

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The potential exists to add seven Democratic women to the US Senate, and replace one Democratic woman with another Democratic woman this November.

Senator Barbara Boxer of California is retiring, and Kamala Harris is running to replace her, although her opponent, also a Democrat, is Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez. So no matter what happens, a Democratic woman in the Senate from California is being replaced by a woman from the Democratic Party.

Maggie Hassan, Governor of New Hampshire, is trying to defeat another woman, Republican Kelly Ayotte, for her Senate seat, and has a good chance of winning

Also, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada is running to replace Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, but is in a tough race, that may be the only Democratic seat in danger, against Republican nominee Joe Heck.

Tammy Duckworth is running for the Illinois Senate seat held by Republican Mark Kirk, and is favored to win.

Katie McGinty is running in Pennsylvania against Republican Pat Toomey, a race seen as very close.

Deborah Ross is running in North Carolina against Republican Richard Burr, another close race.

Ann Kirkpatrick is in a very competitive race in Arizona against well known Republican Senator John McCain.

Finally, Patty Judge is running in Iowa to replace Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, a tough fight.

There are 20 women in the US Senate now, 14 Democrats and 6 Republicans. One woman, Barbara Mikulski of Maryland, will be replaced by a man, Chris Van Hollen. And Kelly Ayotte could be the one Republican woman who leaves the Senate if she loses to Maggie Hassan.

So the end result could be 5 Republican women and a grand total of 20 Democrats if all the women listed above were to win.

That is certainly unlikely to happen, but if it did, we would have the highest number of women Senators in any Congress in American history—25!

Immigration Turned California From “Red” To “Blue” State, And Is Now Doing It To Nation, Destroying Republican Party’s National Future!

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In 1994, California Republican Governor Pete Wilson promoted the passage of Proposition 187, to bar any services to undocumented or illegal immigrants, including education, health care and other social services in the Golden State.

It passed, but divided the state, and ultimately, was declared unconstitutional in 1998, and was never put into effect, but its long term effect was to destroy the Republican Party in California, with the only statewide office holder since then being Arnold Schwarzenegger, himself a celebrity and an immigrant as Governor.

The Republican Party has been decimated in the state legislature and in Congress, and the state has been steadily “Blue” in Presidential elections ever since, even though the state had had a long history of conservative Republicans in office, headed by Ronald Reagan, but including others before and after his time as Governor of the state.

So the Democrats have a great edge in national elections, with the automatic 55 electoral votes of California insuring a Democratic advantage for the Presidency.

But the Republican Party nationally has not learned from this, and instead has alienated both Hispanic and Latino Americans, and also Asian Americans, and in the last election, both groups have gone Democratic with more than 70 percent support, and probably higher in this next Presidential election.

There is a very good chance that North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, Arizona, and even eventually, Texas, will go “Blue” either this year or certainly by 2020 or 2024, and when that happens, the Republican Party nationally is doomed in its efforts to win the White House for the long term.

So Donald Trump’s nativism is the disaster equivalent to what Pete Wilson did a generation ago to the largest state in the Union.

The old saying is: “As California goes, so goes the nation!” Nothing more true can be said!

Odds Are Heavy That Democrats Will Regain Senate Majority In November: Crucial For Future Of Supreme Court

Ronald 10 Comments

With Hillary Clinton running strongly, it seems likely that the Democrats will regain control of the US Senate in this fall’s elections.

The Republicans must defend 24 seats to the Democrats total of 10 seats.

They seem certain to win New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin at the least, and only have one seat in Nevada in danger of being lost to the Republicans.

The Democrats have a good chance also in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri and Arizona.

Of course they will not win all of these seats, but if they gain five and do not lose Nevada, they have 51 members of their caucus, and if they win 4, with Tim Kaine as Vice President, they will gain the majority.

However, having more members is crucial to help promote the future of the Supreme Court, which is likely to have several new members over the next few years.

Right now, many Republicans are running ahead of Donald Trump, so it may be that the Democrats will have trouble gaining more than a minimum majority, but the situation is very fluid, and no clear cut prediction as to the makeup of the Senate next year is possible yet, with 75 days to go until the election.

The South’s Continuing Impact On Impeding Democracy With Voter Restriction Laws

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The South lost the Civil War, but they continue to dominate American politics.

It used to be that the South was Democratic, and that they promoted slavery, Jim Crow segregation, and lynching.

Then, we had a Southern President, Lyndon B. Johnson, who accomplished the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, with the Southern wing of Democrats in Congress bitterly opposing it, and many of them, plus much of their population, abandoning the party and going to the Republicans.

Under Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, they found a home, and worked to undermine voting rights and civil rights, often with the support of those Presidents.

The state governors and legislatures became Republican controlled, and worked to limit civil rights and voting rights, and the Republican majority Supreme Court in 2013 cut back on enforcement of the Voting Rights Act.

As a result, Southern states and many midwestern and mountain states under Republican governors and legislatures started to pass new restrictive laws designed to undermine voting of minorities, particularly African Americans and Hispanics-Latinos.

This led to law suits and now decisions by federal circuit courts in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Kansas, and earlier, Texas, to declare such restrictive laws unconstitutional, a major victory which could affect the Presidential Election of 2016.

There will likely be an appeal to the Supreme Court, a clear cut reason to make sure that the Democrats win the White House and the US Senate, as the outcome for this election is uncertain, and the future of the Court and voting rights in the future hangs in the balance.

It seems likely that the present Court might split 4-4 without Justice Antonin Scalia, who died in February, and that would uphold the lower court decisions declaring such laws to be unconstitutional, but no certainly of that.

The South is crucial in our nation’s politics as they hold 22 seats in the US Senate, 31 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives (138 out 435), and 162 electoral votes in the Presidential race. And this does not include the Border states such as Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, and Oklahoma, which tend to the same politics of exclusion toward minorities and voting rights.

The Rapidly Growing Population Of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Texas Bode Well For Democrats By The 2020 Presidential Election!

Ronald 12 Comments

Four states are rapidly growing in population, according to the Census Bureau, and all four, while “Red” states in the 2012 Presidential election, have the potential to turn “Blue” either in 2016 or certainly by 2020.

North Carolina seems most likely to go for Hillary Clinton, followed by Georgia and possibly Arizona. Longer term, there is Texas.

With North Carolina having 15, Georgia having 16, Arizona having 11, and Texas having 38 electoral votes now, it is certain that all four will have MORE electoral votes starting in 2024.

And Florida, a “swing” state with constantly growing population, particularly of increased Puerto Rican migration, has 29 electoral votes through the 2020 Presidential election, and assuredly will have more in 2024.

So it is highly likely that the Democratic Party will have, for sure, over 400 electoral votes by 2020, and if not, by 2024, an Electoral College landslide for the long term!

Add the present 80 electoral votes of the four presently “Red” states to the 332 that Barack Obama had in 2012, and you get 412 electoral votes, and again, more by 2024 after the reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives and in the Electoral College after the Census of 2020!

Add the Midwestern states of Indiana (11) and Missouri (10) and you get 433 electoral votes to 105 for the Republicans, but again with probably more total electoral votes by gaining of population in the four Sunbelt states, even with the chance that Indiana and Missouri will not gain, and might lose a seat each.

So expect the chance that the total number of electoral votes could, and with the addition of Florida and California gaining seats as well, be in the high 430s!

Public Opinion Polls Show A Widening Lead For Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump, Even In “Swing” States!

Ronald 4 Comments

Here we are at the end of June 2016, and the public opinion polls show a widening lead for Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump, even in “Swing” states.

Donald Trump is self destructing, and this less than three weeks before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and Republicans running away from Trump in droves, wishing for an alternative, but realistically, not able to gain one, other than maybe voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, former Republican Governor of New Mexico and his running mate, William Weld, former Republican Governor of Massachusetts.

If this trend continues, the reality of a massive landslide seems inevitable, and it would have the effect of a 1964 landslide of Lyndon B. Johnson over Barry Goldwater.

North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia and Arizona, and even possibly Utah, seem possible to go for Hillary Clinton, an unheard of thought just a few months ago, and with Hillary Clinton winning every state that Barack Obama won in 2012.

That would mean an Electoral College total of 401 electoral votes, with 69 being added to the 332 that Obama gained in 2012, and it would mean 32 states and DC out of the 50 states.

Republicans Unifying Around Donald Trump Are Self Destructing As A Result! Destroying Their Careers And Reputations In The Process!

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Donald Trump is a total disaster for the Republican Party, and many office holders are backing away as rapidly as possible, but it may not be enough to save them and their careers and reputations in the process.

Many are still unifying around Trump, and will suffer ever more, including Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey and Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama as two examples, because they both have the ambition to be Vice President.

Many others clearly have no desire to run with Trump, and to serve under him would be a nightmare.

The only way to hold on to one’s career in the Republican Party is to repudiate Trump, and condemn his racism, nativism, xenophobia, and misogyny. Republicans in “Blue” states are showing signs of doing so, as for instance, Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker.

Many Republican Senators running for reelection are seeing their likelihood of reelection going down the drain, and are in crisis mode.

Of course, Republicans in solidly “Red” states, particularly in the South, probably do not need to worry as much, although there is no certainty that the “Red” states will all remain “Red”, as there are signs that North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, and even Utah might abandon the Republican Presidential candidate.

Donald Trump Plans 15 State Strategy For Presidential Election, Including Solidly Blue States!

Ronald 32 Comments

Donald Trump is telling us he has a 15 state strategy, including California and New York, solidly “blue” states.

Trump is living in a parallel universe, as there is no chance that he will win ANY “blue” state, as this blogger sees it, except possibly New York, his home state.

In an article for History News Network (HNN) by this author, available under “Articles” on the right side of this blog, I come to the conclusion that Trump COULD win New York, by a small margin, being that he is a resident of New York, and should carry upstate New York and Long Island, and could possibly outpoll Hillary Clinton statewide, even with New York City staying strongly Democratic.

However, California, most assuredly will NOT go for Trump, with Barack Obama having won the state by 23 points in 2012.

As I state on that article, which has had high readership, I forecast that Clinton will win two states that were “red” in 2012, North Carolina and Georgia, with a total of 31 electoral votes, which would make up for the possible loss of New York, with 29 electoral votes.

So I forecast an Electoral College vote of 334-204, instead of the 332-206 results for Obama in 2012.

Boycott Of North Carolina And Mississippi Over Anti Gay, Anti Transgender “Religious Freedom” Law Under Way, And Totally Appropriate!

Ronald 6 Comments

North Carolina and Mississippi have gone terribly backwards, with their recent passage and signing of anti gay and anti transgender legislation, claiming it is an issue of “religious freedom”.

Sorry, but religion does not teach prejudice, hatred, or discrimination as part of its tenets, certainly not in Christianity, or does it? If one looks at the history of the religion, there is no question that sects of the faith historically have advocated anti Semitism, racism, misogyny, and homophobia, but this is 2016, and this is unacceptable!

So it is appropriate that Bruce Springsteen cancels a concert in North Carolina; that Paypal refuse to expand in that state; and that the National Basketball Association cancel its All Star game in 2017 in North Carolina.

The same can be said about Mississippi, that all action by corporations, and including sports and entertainment, MUST be utilized to force these states to rescind these laws, or suffer, including cuts in federal aid to those states, now being considered by the US government.

Trump Effect: Likelihood Of Major Democratic Wave In 2016!

Ronald 13 Comments

The effect of Donald Trump’s Presidential candidacy is the likelihood of a major Democratic wave in the upcoming Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2016.

Polls indicate that the Electoral College could be a landslide for the Democrats, with the chance to gain such states as North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, major areas of Hispanic and Latino growth, and indications of many registering to vote because of Trump’s anti Hispanic and anti Latino rhetoric, including against the nation of Mexico, which shares a 2,000 mile boundary with the United States.

The Senate has 34 seats facing election, with 24 of those seats being Republican, and at least ten seats of Republicans in danger of being lost, which would create a large margin of Democrats in the upper chamber.

The House of Representatives is a tough nut to crack, due to gerrymandering and the largest Republican majority in the lower chamber since 1928.  At the least, the large GOP majority will dwindle, with an outside chance of a slim Democratic majority, which probably would be lost in the midterm elections of 2018.

But even a two year “window” would allow a Democratic President with both houses of Congress in his favor to accomplish major changes!

And, of course, the transformation of the Supreme Court would occur, which would have a long range effect.

This is what Donald Trump has done to the moribund Republican Party, and it looks more likely by the day!